Topic: Chasing the Title

[spider-neil]

We really should be taking this one game at a time etc etc so after this I’ll stop.

But yesterday I notice our final four fixtures are Cardiff away, Huddersfield home, Newcastle away and Wolves home. You couldn’t really ask for better than that to be honest. Certainly better than fucking Chelsea t home as per 13-14.

Depends if those teams have been relegated already.

[Jm55]

Depends if those teams have been relegated already.

In Huddersfield’s case at least I’d say that’s a given.

[Sharado]

Depends if those teams have been relegated already.

The quality of the team we have, it doesn't. We're a long, long way better than those 3 teams mentioned.

[rawcusk8]

The more we win the more belief we gain and it will have a knock on effect to City. if they lose or drop points first I can see them prioritising the Champions League and the domestic cups. We just have to keep winning, starting with the Palace game. Keep the team angry and motivated so they take no game for granted and we can do this. It's hard for us to not get excited and not calculate how many wins from our remaining games will get us the title but I'm sure Klopp has the team focused and not thinking too far ahead. A shame we're out of the cups but the 11 day break will be brilliant given the rest and the possible returns of Gomez, Lovren and Lallana.

[bornandbRED]

The next 5 are huge. Maximum points during this period and going to Old Trafford with a 4 points (minimum) lead would be huge, and even bigger if we can pull out a result there.

We've done some fantastic leg work in the first half of the season to be in this position. Maintaining consistency now and showing City no signs that we'll be letting up is crucial. If they blink before us the gap will become sizeable. Alternatively - a couple of draws in the next 3/4 games and City will be feeling like it's well within their grasp.

[lionel_messias]

The more we win the more belief we gain and it will have a knock on effect to City. if they lose or drop points first I can see them prioritising the Champions League and the domestic cups. We just have to keep winning, starting with the Palace game. Keep the team angry and motivated so they take no game for granted and we can do this. It's hard for us to not get excited and not calculate how many wins from our remaining games will get us the title but I'm sure Klopp has the team focused and not thinking too far ahead. A shame we're out of the cups but the 11 day break will be brilliant given the rest and the possible returns of Gomez, Lovren and Lallana.

Yep. Has to be focus on one game at a time. Just beat Crystal Palace.
Irrelevant what Man City do, if we keep our focus and keep getting the 3 points.

[oojason]

John Moss is the ref for the Palace game (https://www.premierleague.com/news/975364) - so obviously we'll need to adapt our game to go out and ensure we score a few early - so after 20 minutes when he can no longer keep up with play... we won't be affected by his mistakes and multiple stoppages by him which'll somehow exponentially increase after that 20 minute mark.

[diegoLFC7]

City's fixture congestion will make them drop points. Their February looks grim. Arsenal, a cup final, shalke away, Everton, and west ham.  They should be dropping at least 4 points from those. We have 11 days to do some warm weather training while they have to play Burnley in the cup. We should be fresher, its going to go down to fixture congestion.

[iamnant]

John Moss is the ref for the Palace game

...is fucking horrific news.

We best make sure we beat them by ourselves, as he will give them everything and give us zilch.

[God's Left Peg]

Only two games that really worry me are Everton and Man U aways.

[farawayred]

John Moss is the ref for the Palace game (https://www.premierleague.com/news/975364) - so obviously we'll need to adapt our game to go out and ensure we score a few early - so after 20 minutes when he can no longer keep up with play... we won't be affected by his mistakes and multiple stoppages by him which'll somehow exponentially increase after that 20 minute mark.

He's the one that most needs retirement from the current crop. He's not bent, just poor and can't keep up. I'd be a better option at 52 (but I'm bent )

[Paullfc95]

Only two games that really worry me are Everton and Man U aways.

This and 9 home games make me feel confident.

My opinion changes daily though. Got to hope the fixture congestion catches up with them but we seem to be having the bad luck with injuries now, while they have a fully fit squad

[Scouser-Tommy]

Does anyone have an idea when Sky are likely to announce the next lot of fixtures changes for the tele?

[Philipm20]

Does anyone have an idea when Sky are likely to announce the next lot of fixtures changes for the tele?

25th Jan for March games

[Geezer08]

What gives me the most belief is that we are ontrack for the best defensive record in the last almost 15 seasons.

[him_15]

Only two games that really worry me are Everton and Man U aways.

We are superior to them.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

We are superior to them.

That alone doesn't translate to wins.

[Big Red Richie]

Both us and City will drop points before the end of the season, the question is, who will drop more than the other?

We have a bit of breathing space, but not much, and any slip up will undoubtedly bouy them and give them an injection of confidence.

The margins will be fine.


One game at a time, and all that.  16 Finals to win. 


It's not necessarily the best team that wins the League. It's the most consistent.

[Crosby Nick]

Both us and City will drop points before the end of the season, the question is, who will drop more than the other?

We have a bit of breathing space, but not much, and any slip up will undoubtedly bouy them and give them an injection of confidence.

The margins will be fine.


One game at a time, and all that.  16 Finals to win. 

15

[Big Red Richie]

I stand corrected.   

[Alisson Wonderland]

What gives me the most belief is that we are ontrack for the best defensive record in the last almost 15 seasons.

Exactly this.  Titles are built on a good defence.

City's clean sheet against 10 man Wolves was their first in about 8 games.  In fact, before that game every other Premier League team had kept a clean sheet more recently than City had.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Exactly this. Titles are built on a good defence.

City's clean sheet against 10 man Wolves was their first in about 8 games.  In fact, before that game every other Premier League team had kept a clean sheet more recently than City had.

Only 40% of the time

[Barneylfc∗]

Only 40% of the time

60% of title winners didn't have a good defence?

[El Lobo]

[PhaseOfPlay]

60% of title winners didn't have a good defence?

A good, defence, sure, but not always the best one (caveat - under 3-points-for-a-win). They usually have one of the top two attacks though. The title winners have had as low as the 7th best defence in the league, but the title winners have only had lower than the 2nd-best attack 3 times since 1982.

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

Although "offence is the best form of defence" seems to hold up

And we nearly won the league with an average one

The "average" goals conceded in a 38 game season is 50. I'll look into it more later, but I reckon there were a few title winners who were quite close to that average.

[PaulF]

By best attack, I assume you mean simply most goals scored?

[PhaseOfPlay]

By best attack, I assume you mean simply most goals scored?

Yep.

[swoopy]

Southampton out of the FA Cup now as well. So Southampton v Liverpool definately takes places on weekend of 6th April 2019

[DangerScouse]

West Ham away won't be an easy game either. I'd nearly say that'll be tougher than Everton.

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

Southampton out of the FA Cup now as well. So Southampton v Liverpool definately takes places on weekend of 6th April 2019

Which is great, providing we win, because the chances are Man City won't play that weekend so we can put points on the board and really heap the pressure on them when they play their games in hand.

[El Lobo]

West Ham away won't be an easy game either. I'd nearly say that'll be tougher than Everton.

Don’t think any more of them look particularly easy on paper, most teams are still playing for something and the ones that aren’t (Wolves, Leicester, West Ham, Everton) are historically teams who cause us problems on some level (in Everton’s case, scraping a draw sometimes) and have caused other ‘challengers’ problems too.

[kaesarsosei]

I am really tempting fate here, but I think we will win every game left except for these 4:

Everton (a) - I really don't see how they can win this, at most they can get a draw. But we are completely in their heads now for sure - D
United (a) - this one worries me - whatever you might say, they are resurgent and this could easily be a loss - L
Spurs - I think they will clinging on to top 4 for dear life by then, Kane should be back but could be rusty and I believe has a history of taking a while to get going after time out - W
Chelsea - The best team we have left to play, but at least it is at home. I can't see us losing - D

Worst case scenario from those 4 games - 5 points. That means City would need to only lose 1 more all season regardless of who it is against to finish level on points.

Like I say, tempting fate, and simplistic, but that's how I see it and gives an idea of what City need to do to haul us in. It's different from 13/14 because that team was guaranteed to concede at least 1 goal which meant we needed our attackers to play well every game consistently. Now if we have a bad game we can still nick a 1-0.

[Alisson Wonderland]

A good, defence, sure, but not always the best one (caveat - under 3-points-for-a-win). They usually have one of the top two attacks though. The title winners have had as low as the 7th best defence in the league, but the title winners have only had lower than the 2nd-best attack 3 times since 1982.

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

Although "offence is the best form of defence" seems to hold up

And we nearly won the league with an average one

The "average" goals conceded in a 38 game season is 50. I'll look into it more later, but I reckon there were a few title winners who were quite close to that average.

I didn't say title's are won by having the best defence but you need a good one to win it.

Put simply the less goals you concede, the less likely you are to lose!

[Peabee]

liverpool - Away Utd and everton
                Home Spurs and Chelsea

Manchester City -Away - Utd and Everton
         Home - Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs.


its tight...

Why are you including Everton in there?...

[fowlermagic]

A good, defence, sure, but not always the best one (caveat - under 3-points-for-a-win). They usually have one of the top two attacks though. The title winners have had as low as the 7th best defence in the league, but the title winners have only had lower than the 2nd-best attack 3 times since 1982.

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

Although "offence is the best form of defence" seems to hold up

And we nearly won the league with an average one

The "average" goals conceded in a 38 game season is 50. I'll look into it more later, but I reckon there were a few title winners who were quite close to that average.

In the past 15 years the average goals conceded by the champs was about 30 and only one team conceded above 40. Since Chelsea's season where they leaked in a miserable 15 the next best was 22 goals conceded and the worse 43 so we are well on the way to conceding the second least goals in the league since 2000. Hopefully that will give us the foundation to win a title but we still have to bang in a few to bring home the bacon.

[PhaseOfPlay]

In the past 15 years the average goals conceded by the champs was about 30 and only one team conceded above 40. Since Chelsea's season where they leaked in a miserable 15 the next best was 22 goals conceded and the worse 43 so we are well on the way to conceding the second least goals in the league since 2000. Hopefully that will give us the foundation to win a title but we still have to bang in a few to bring home the bacon.

Yeah, I think we're going to be 40%er champions if we win it. City will outscore us I reckon.

[newterp]

I'm still expecting Klopp to navigate a few more games and then unleash the hounds - where we go back to scoring for fun, but (yes) open ourselves up to some more dangerous situations the other way. Almost as if he plans on fooling teams who believe we have settled into the pragmatic routine. Granted he can't do that until Gomez and AA are fit.

[stewil007]

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

I always thought quote this was pegged at the NBA - "offence wins games, defence wins championship"

[newterp]

I always thought quote this was pegged at the NBA - "offence wins games, defence wins championship"

Well in the NBA defense does generally win championships because the refs swallow their whistles and the pretty much only blood results in a foul call. Hockey took a cue from the NBA as well for the playoffs.

[JP-65]

A good, defence, sure, but not always the best one (caveat - under 3-points-for-a-win). They usually have one of the top two attacks though. The title winners have had as low as the 7th best defence in the league, but the title winners have only had lower than the 2nd-best attack 3 times since 1982.

"Defence wins championships" is more a myth than a truism.

Although "offence is the best form of defence" seems to hold up

And we nearly won the league with an average one

The "average" goals conceded in a 38 game season is 50. I'll look into it more later, but I reckon there were a few title winners who were quite close to that average.

I've said that for many seasons on the Results Comparison Thread:

 "a good offense wins you the league (with the caveat that your defense is competitive) & a good defense keeps you in the league (teams at the bottom tend to have the worse defenses, although a few go down due to not being able to score at all)