Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE

[Peabee]

Not quite. They estimated that 10% had antibodies by April 24th. It takes several weeks to develop these antibodies, so it means that about 10% were infected around April 5-10th - about a month ago. Since the number was increasing by 3% per week, this should be more like 20-25% infected now. That's about half way to where herd immunity starts to really affect the spreading. At the same rate, they would reach 50% in about 2 months from now, but the numbers are dropping so it will take more time.

3% of 10% is 0.3%. How’ve you got from 10% to 25% in four weeks at 3% growth per week? You’re adding 3%, which would mean 3% of the population are being infected each week. Which is it?

Show your workings...

[kavah]

I don't think there has been conclusive studides done on viral load and how much effect it has on seriousness of symptoms? I know there were theories about it, and it is the case with some viruses that a lower load leads to lower symptoms, but if I remember right it hadn't been proven.

I don’t think there is any conclusive evidence. But I thought the link in this post has a lot of good information - it definitively makes me more relaxed about going to the supermarket and exercising outside.

With a nod towards posts made last night on 'Viral Load', the attached provides further info from Scientists this week;

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/

[Samie]

My new favourite type of people are the mask wearing non-wearer.

Seen loads who have clearly come out the house and walked / driven to the shop with their mask on, then they get in the shop and around people and pull it down around their necks.

It's this sort of stupidity that will be the end of us!!

 

I saw that in Tesco's the other day. And it's a lad I know.  All he said was " Got be done Samie lad, Got to be done". 

[filopastry]

SO if 20-25% Swiss pop have had it, ie 1.9 million, and deaths from Swiss currently at 1,500, that give a Mortality Rate of 0.08%. Can that be anyway near right?

If you manage to keep your older/more vulnerable population protected, it probably isn't completely impossible.

The big problem in the UK unfortunately is that hasn't happened in care homes.

[Zeb]

Yes, everything after April 5th or so is just my estimates, but it seems like the numbers have been fairly stable. My point was just that there is a long delay in these numbers.

The rates are actually quite high, and it seems likely that they will get close to herd immunity in not a too distant future (3-6 months).

Yeah, other than the shortcut I took you picked up on, I'm not sure I agree with that take much at all. 10% after peak doesn't strike me as being particularly high, even allowing for further infections from it since. Main thrust of paper is that vast majority still haven't had it and so changing eg lockdown needs to take that into account.

[Elmo!]

I'd like to see a graph of reproduction rate against percentage of population immune from already having it.

60% is the estimated point at which we have effective herd immunity but it's not binary, it gradually builds up as more and more peopel get immune. I had read that the effect is exponential, so going from 0% of population to 10% being immune has very little difference to R_T, and going going 10% to 20% has a slightly bigger effect and so on.

[Peabee]

I don't think there has been conclusive studides done on viral load and how much effect it has on seriousness of symptoms? I know there were theories about it, and it is the case with some viruses that a lower load leads to lower symptoms, but if I remember right it hadn't been proven.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

[Red Beret]

I've tried to be sensible and mindful of others during lockdown, but not everyone is. It's definitely become more lax and the traffic levels outside of the city centre are almost back to normal during the day.

I suppose we need to be more flexible, but there are always those who will take the piss at the first opportunity.

As I see it, the purpose of the lockdown should be twofold: first, so we dont break the NHS, and second we should be using the time to put together the infrastructure so we can aggressively test and trace people.

When you can effectively track the spread of the infection, you can target measures to combat it with more precision, and so avoid further general, blanket lockdowns that can only be a short term measure.

Without that, lifting restrictions will just allow the virus to roam free - and our numbers are already really bad even WITH lockdown. 

[Elmo!]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

Thanks, but it doesn't seem conclusive (I'm not a scientist mind).

This finding suggests that the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 might be a useful marker for assessing disease severity and prognosis.

[Samie]

The good weather is definitely playing it's part in this "Cabin Fever" mood of people. If it was pissing it down we'd all be inside anyway.

[No666]

There's a ton of work going on on the MH side, yeah. Not just academic, every MH charity I've ever had even fleeting contact with seem to be trying to get some sort of handle on things too. I have chronic stuff going on, and I'm pretty well adapted to lockdown in part because of it, but I've definitely noticed things changing over time as well . Especially with sleep patterns being increasingly disturbed from a vague 'norm'.

----

Some of the research being done which is going to SAGE and government, and others can participate in if they wish to:

UCL is running studies in the UK and the US. Provides a public weekly update of trends. https://www.marchnetwork.org/research

Kings College London is also running a large study for general public but also targeting (via shared resources) those with existing or past MH stuff going on. I've not seen anything published by them yet. Sign up is here: https://kclbs.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_5hHYPH37qvK0Cyh

Yeah, UCL is the one I'm doing. Like you, my sleep pattern has changed, which was something that happened when I had the one period of bad mental health. This has happened since about four weeks in, and when it dawned on me there's a chance I may never see certain members of my family again (70-80, live in California, had cancer).

[Zeb]

Here's the article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52574427

Ta Elmo.

Earlier in the day, Health Secretary Jeane Freeman told Holyrood's health committee that the infection rate in Scotland remained too high to give much room for manoeuvre.

Ms Sturgeon said it was thought the infection rate in Scotland "might still be higher than in other parts of the UK", possibly reflecting the fact that the first cases of Covid-19 north of the border came later than in England.

Which seems to reflect what likes of CMMID have been telling government about nations and regions. What you were saying yesterday about confidence in her not being harmed by her willingness to say she'll take decisions as suit Scotland best, although difficult one with creating incentives as we've mentioned before on here.

[TSC]

My new favourite type of people are the mask wearing non-wearer.

Seen loads who have clearly come out the house and walked / driven to the shop with their mask on, then they get in the shop and around people and pull it down around their necks.

It's this sort of stupidity that will be the end of us!!

Terrorist in reverse!

[12C]

How can a cyclist be "out against the rules" he/she is taking their daily exercise. More likely a dealer or such like.

Stolen bike?

[TSC]

Listened to a phone-in on LBC earlier.  Two Health workers spoke of their experience of testing.  Had the tests over a week ago, and still waiting on results.

Given this government that may be a widespread issue.

[[new username under construction]]

Listened to a phone-in on LBC earlier.  Two Health workers spoke of their experience of testing.  Had the tests over a week ago, and still waiting on results.

Given this government that may be a widespread issue.

My nephew and houseamate were tested a few days ago and got results back. So sounds like all over the place

[stewil007]

Had a call with our managers/directors today and basically they said that regardless of what the government say at the weekend we will continue with home working for the foreseeable future.

Our safety is their priority and until there is a safe and usuable way of getting us back into the office, then they wont countenance the easing of restrictions.

[CraigDS]

Listened to a phone-in on LBC earlier.  Two Health workers spoke of their experience of testing.  Had the tests over a week ago, and still waiting on results.

Screams of sending out masses of tests to meet their self inflicted quota but not actually having the capacity to do this amount of tests.

[Peabee]

Thanks, but it doesn't seem conclusive (I'm not a scientist mind).

Everything is might or probable in science   

[bobadicious]

If you manage to keep your older/more vulnerable population protected, it probably isn't completely impossible.

The big problem in the UK unfortunately is that hasn't happened in care homes.

But then the argument of, its just the same as the flu and we don't lockup for the flu becomes valid? Flus mortality is 0.1%.

Weve also got Sweden saying they'll have herd immunity in May, which is only possible if the mortality is way lower than touted and infection way higher than touted.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says?t=1588852133005

[OOS]

Mixed messages all over the place from off the record briefings. A couple of days ago, "Government Sources" suggested we were relaxing the lockdown restrictions and today it looks like we extending it by three weeks with very little change.

Now I know, you should take whatever you read with a massive grain of salt, but stuff like this isn't helpful.

[kavah]

Had a call with our managers/directors today and basically they said that regardless of what the government say at the weekend we will continue with home working for the foreseeable future.

Our safety is their priority and until there is a safe and usuable way of getting us back into the office, then they wont countenance the easing of restrictions.

That’s great mate. It sounds like you work for a good company with caring managers. Nice one

[CraigDS]

Mixed messages all over the place from off the record briefings. A couple of days ago, "Government Sources" suggested we were relaxing the lockdown restrictions and today it looks like we extending it by three weeks with very little change.

Now I know, you should take whatever you read with a massive grain of salt, but stuff like this isn't helpful.

The media, and the Govts. handle on their misinformation, have had a huge hand in the masses being restless right now.

[Peabee]

But then the argument of, its just the same as the flu and we don't lockup for the flu becomes valid? Flus mortality is 0.1%.

Weve also got Sweden saying they'll have herd immunity in May, which is only possible if the mortality is way lower than touted and infection way higher than touted.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says?t=1588852133005

But we don’t know the mortality of this virus until after the pandemic. It would have been negligent doing nothing then having a 10% mortality like SARS.

For the U.K. to have 0.1% would need half the population to have been infected by mid April,given the 30k dead already. Highly doubt that.

[TSC]

On news ticker Downing Street announce any relaxing of measures next week will be limited.  Also confirm adoption of a ‘4 nation’ approach to exit lockdown.

However Sturgeon has confirmed Scotland has extended current measures by at least 3 weeks.

So there’s divergence from the off.

[bobadicious]

I'd like to see a graph of reproduction rate against percentage of population immune from already having it.

60% is the estimated point at which we have effective herd immunity but it's not binary, it gradually builds up as more and more peopel get immune. I had read that the effect is exponential, so going from 0% of population to 10% being immune has very little difference to R_T, and going going 10% to 20% has a slightly bigger effect and so on.

It would be a logistic curve (S shaped curve) if let to take its natural course. rate of increase constant halfway up the curve then decreasing after that until it stops completely, at herd immunity level.

[Elmo!]

I'd like to see a graph of reproduction rate against percentage of population immune from already having it.

60% is the estimated point at which we have effective herd immunity but it's not binary, it gradually builds up as more and more peopel get immune. I had read that the effect is exponential, so going from 0% of population to 10% being immune has very little difference to R_T, and going going 10% to 20% has a slightly bigger effect and so on.

Found sort of an answer to my own question.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

At any time, Re = R0 × (1 – Pi), where Pi is the proportion of the population who are immune at that time.

So if R0 is 2, at 10% of the population being immune it would be

R_e = 2 x (1 - 0.1) = 1.8

At 20%:

R_e = 2 x (1 - 0.2) = 1.6.

[TepidT2O]

This form EBMdatalab run by Ben Goldacre for those who remember him...

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1258378643979620353?s=21

Amazing analysis of risks.

[bobadicious]

But we don’t know the mortality of this virus until after the pandemic. It would have been negligent doing nothing then having a 10% mortality like SARS.

For the U.K. to have 0.1% would need half the population to have been infected by mid April,given the 30k dead already. Highly doubt that.

I doubt it too but no one really knows until they do wide spread randomised testing.

[eddymunster]

Well Spain are down to about 200 a day and they're only just relaxing lockdown in small ways - so I think until we reach a similar position we shouldn't be looking at wholesale measures........we're about 2 or 3 times the number of daily deaths as Spain. Also, as has been mentioned we are showing over 6000 cases a day which in turn will lead to more deaths - if we open up too much (and looking at the posts above some people are already in that mode) we risk having a big second wave, which will lead to a further lockdown......even Johnson has said this. Though he contradicts himself in the next breath by saying we need to get 'the engines of our economy started again' !

Spain in April started announcing plans to start reducing lockdown in late May, they had over 6000 new cases on 23rd April. Their weekly average was less than ours admittedly by about 1000 a day.

And we are not showing over 6000 cases a day either. We had over 6000 yesterday and two days out of the week before that. The week by week average is closer to 5000.

Don't know who's advocating just lifting lockdown, i'm certainly not. I do think that announcing when in the future a reduction in lockdown measure will begin is not only fine but in the countries interests to actually help people keep following what restrictions are already in place until they do start to reduce restrictions. If there are signs of a reduction in restrictions people will be more likely to stay at home until then. "You say stay at home until we say you can go out" and offer no insight as to when that may be people will get restless and flout the rules more and more.

You have to get a plan in place for when we are ready to start reducing restrictions.

[Samie]

Greece is saying they want to open up boarders for tourist's from July 1st.

[Zeb]

Yeah, UCL is the one I'm doing. Like you, my sleep pattern has changed, which was something that happened when I had the one period of bad mental health. This has happened since about four weeks in, and when it dawned on me there's a chance I may never see certain members of my family again (70-80, live in California, had cancer).

It's rough. Know we're not the only ones on here who've been experiencing stuff from what's been said over past few weeks. Thing I've realised is just how much my routine is shaped by my partner's with her having to look after her mum. Been a curious few weeks. Vaccine or antivirals soon please.

The UCL one is lovely for being able to see the results pretty quickly. That Kings one is quite nice as the aim isn't just to measure effects but also to study how people are managing and seeing what's working best to help inform advice on recognising and then mitigating things as best we can. Obviously lockdown isn't going to be forever but the longer term social side look a bit more gnarly for all the Zoom calls and whatever are done.

[Snail]

Went for a walk around the Albert Dock etc. there, was fucking ridiculous. Couldn't dodge people so gave up in the end, followed by a not very social distancey queue to get in Hanover Street Tesco. Some arl fella was practically stood on top of us wheezing all over the place.

[OOS]

The media, and the Govts. handle on their misinformation, have had a huge hand in the masses being restless right now.

It comes down from a complete lack of leadership from the PM. Him and Cummings have been caught like deer in headlights, totally unfit to govern this country.

[TSC]

This form EBMdatalab run by Ben Goldacre for those who remember him...

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1258378643979620353?s=21

Amazing analysis of risks.

I’m aware there are tests around use of ‘nicotine’ in France.  Not sure of status of that.  But the analysis as per your link (if I’m reading correctly) suggests non-smokers are at more risk than smokers?

Maybe I’ve read incorrectly (I’m on phone so not easy to see the graphic).

[CraigDS]

It comes down from a complete lack of leadership from the PM. Him and Cummings have been caught like deer in headlights, totally unfit to govern this country.

The journos and editors need to take a look at themselves too though. Rather than supporting the lock down and reassuring the public a lot of them have published story after story designed to make them restless.

[CraigDS]

I’m aware there are tests around use of ‘nicotine’ in France.  Not sure of status of that.  But the analysis as per your link (if I’m reading correctly) suggests non-smokers are at more risk than smokers?

Maybe I’ve read incorrectly (I’m on phone so not easy to see the graphic).

I think it shows more that smokers, in general, are no more at risk than non-smokers. However a lot of the diseases smoking can cause will put you at greater risk if you get one of those.

[12C]

Also, I don't buy that we are instrically worse than many other countries (maybe apart from "virus streetwise" places like Hong Kong) as a general populace, there was ridiculous stuff in both Spain and Italy as well Cheltenham where a lot of people from Ireland joined the crowds. Britain gonna self hate and flagellate though.

We had the warning signs from Italy and Spain. The footage on the BBC showing the disaster in Spanish care homes where death was a daily occurrence. And we all tutted and said we would never be like them.  Our govt only started counting deaths in care homes the other day. They still haven’t got adequate PPE or testing for the care sector.
As for self flagellate? This govt have walked into this disaster with their eyes shut. Lies about PPE -“it’s a logistics problem” lies about its herd immunity strategy, lies about care deaths. The rest of Europe was locking down, Scotland ffs shut it’s schools because they realised this bunch of clowns in the cabinet were dithering, not wanting to upset the middle class voter. They didn’t shut pubs until after Ireland cancelled St Paddy’s  day, in case  Tim from Wetherspoons or his customers were upset. We even had a “last night of the drunks” with the media building up to the lockdown and running stories about how people were going to enjoy a last pissup.
What did we have as a strategy? Wash your hands whilst singing God Save The Queen! And sneeze into your elbow!

Sorry to sound off, but you sound like a daily mail editorial

I don't buy that we are instrically worse than many other countries

Greece have managed it better than Johnson. Greece ffs. But lets not self flagellate our national response. Because only 50k have died.

[TSC]

I think it shows more that smokers, in general, are no more at risk than non-smokers. However a lot of the diseases smoking can cause will put you at greater risk if you get one of those.

Yep recognise that.  As per studies going on in France any impact with regards covid-19 maybe related to nicotine (as opposed to tobacco).

[Zeb]

I’m aware there are tests around use of ‘nicotine’ in France.  Not sure of status of that.  But the analysis as per your link (if I’m reading correctly) suggests non-smokers are at more risk than smokers?

Maybe I’ve read incorrectly (I’m on phone so not easy to see the graphic).

No, you've not misread, it caught my eye too. Full paper suggests a weak link between current smokers and a slightly lower risk even after adjusting for everything else. It also points out that taking up or continuing smoking on those grounds would be to misunderstand the risks associated with smoking.