I accidentally posted this in the wrong thread. Oh well, here goes. One of the hardest games to predict that I can remember, either team can trounce the other I reckon. But I've watched Man United closely in their two opening games and they have impressed me, but are hard to get a read on.
Moyes, so far, has employed an asymmetric and quite reactive 4-4-1-1 and I expect their line-up and tactics vs Chelsea to be more accurate then their counterparts against Swansea. Against Chelsea, it looked very much like this:
Though in theory a 4-4-1-1, it was more a case of an asymmetric 3-4-3 as Moyes quite obviously tried to overload Chelsea's centre back pair by getting Welbeck in together with Rooney and RvP, whilst completely neglecting the nr 10 area. At times it worked splendidly well as Chelsea played a zonal defense but more often than not, Welbeck and Rooney got in each other's way failing to use the 3vs2 situation in the middle to full effect. As both Carrick and Cleverly sat deep however, they did manage to completely take Lampard and Ramires out of the game as they during large spells were in fact completely useless, especially as Chelsea played quite a direct counter-attacking game. If this tactic was based solely on Chelsea's zonal defense or if it is an early example of how Moyes plans to use the Rooney/RvP/Welbeck combination remains to be seen, but with our fresh CB-crisis it can be extremely effective and I'm sure Moyes has recognized this.
As for attacking patterns, United quite naturally focused their play almost entirely down the flanks as neither Rooney nor RvP came deep to offer a nr 10 option for Cleverly/Carrick. Despite Valencia being a winger and Evra being a full back, their average positions were astonishingly similar if not for Evra having to track back further than Valencia. Basically, in possession Evra and Valencia had very similar roles - to get round on the outside trying to get crosses and/or passes in to the forward trio. Though not at all effective against Ivanovic and Cole, I'm quite worried how much damage it could cause us as we've got Enrique and Johnson there. Rooney had a tendency to come wide and offer a passing option for both Valencia and Evra, and with our CBs being pre-occupied with RvP and Welbeck I don't think they will track him. Which means our wingers have to track back extremely well to avoid 2v1 situations. Valencia and Rooney vs Enrique is a goal waiting to happen.
Aside from that, I was very impressed with Cleverley's passing range and I would prefer if our nr 10 - be that Coutinho or Aspas - close him down regularly so that he can not spray it around as well as he at times did vs Chelsea.
Now, the back four/three can be got at however. Though Chelsea failed to capitalize, United did reveal some weaknesses in their defense that I expect Rodgers has seen as well. The two most important ones, for me, were the following:
The asymmetric back four - Welbeck does not track back half as well as Valencia, and Evra is often much further up the field than Jones. While Jones protected by Valencia is a defensively sound combination, Vidic having to come out to cover for Evra is not. If we are to score against United, I fully expect it to come from the Vidic/Evra-part of the defense. Vidic is a fantastic centre back, one of the best in the world when fit, but a full back he is not. Moyes has of course recognized this, but I think he simply tries to force the opposition's right flank to be too defensive to exploit it. As we will likely have to put Henderson there to help out Johnson, I think our nr 10 has to be mobile enough to exploit the space behind Evra when the opportunity arises. I would very much like to see Coutinho be our nr 10 as he is a perfect fit for it, but I'm fairly sure he will play wide until Suarez returns. This will fall unto Aspas and I hope he's up for it.
The second thing that caught my eye was that for some reason, be that tactical instructions or failure to recognize the danger, Vidic/Ferdinand were incredibly static when it came to blocking long shots, far more static than I have ever seen them. And as neither Carrick nor Cleverely is the defensive midfielder to make up for it, the are quite susceptible to long shots. To exploit the area between Vidic/Ferdinand and Carrick/Cleverly won't be an easy task, as the area isn't very big, but if we only manage to do that once or twice I think we could capitalize on it as Sturridge packs a decent shot, as does Gerrard (though he will rarely be in a position to use it) and Coutinho.
In conclusion, I believe the asymmetric 4-4-1-1 cum 3-4-3 United played vs Chelsea will be a perfect fit vs us. Partially because of our CB pair (Agger with Skrtel or Wisdom), as I can't see them handling a 2v2 for 90 minutes, let alone 3v2 and partially because we only have one wide player (who isn't a wide player at all) that tracks back sufficiently to protect our full backs vs 2v1 situations with Rooney + Valencia/Evra. Also, if they manage to keep Lucas/Gerrard out of the game (thought I doubt it) like they managed to do with Lampard and Ramires, we've lost two key players before the game has even started. I expect it to be less effective vs us than vs Chelsea though as our attack won't be half as direct as Chelsea's. Also, their biggest weakness being the Vidic/Evra-combination, will be hard to exploit as our best nr 10 is still playing wide. If we play Sterling out wide with Coutinho as a nr 10 instead of Aspas I would be more confident, but I doubt it will happen.
Basically, I would take a draw. United will have to underperform to get anything less than a win I'm afraid, because they'll put 11 quality players out there in a system perfect to counter us. If we do win, I think it will be more down to United underperforming than us doing well. Needless to say, I would love to be wrong.
