Going with Arne Slot does stick to some key principles that are important when hiring a manager:
1. Hire someone with experience at the job in hand (battling relegation or managing in mid table is vastly different from competing for honours and at the top of the table, whilst in Europe).
2. Hire someone with recent success (historic performances count for much less as ability wains over time)
3. Hire someone based on club performance (international performance does not translate)
4. Consider personality (hiring someone who will alienate players or create a toxic dressing room can have long term detrimental effects)
5. Have weighting towards a positive playing style (players and supporters look more favourably on attacking sides)
6. Don’t consider a manager’s playing career, especially for former players or club legends as this is emotive and distorts opinion
7. Don’t hire an interim manager
8. Consider context (success at a leagues dominant club is less impressive than with an underdog, particularly when this matches the context of the hiring club)
In Arne Slot, there’s someone who recently won a domestic title with a financial and historic underdog with a positive playing and management style. He fits the bill, even if he’s not a big name. You’d prefer he’d done it in a higher rated league, but there’s a very small pool of managers who have, whilst fitting the other criteria too.
In the last 10 years how many ‘financial underdogs’ have won a league title. With that criteria you’re probably looking at a list of managers of Klopp, Raneiri, Simeone, Alonso, Galtier, Jardim, Spalletti, Amorim, Van Bronkhorst, Slot.
Out of those realistic options, who fit within the criteria we’d set out probably only include Alonso, Amorim and Slot. Alonso has so few games as manager (less than our 175 games we use as a broad criteria when considering players), but his achievement is obviously special, so I do wonder how they analysed him, especially given, he’d only have been part of a season to this year when our analytics started.
Out of Slot and Amorim, Slot is in the higher rated league (6th vs 7th in UEFA coefficient), has the better European record and has the more compatible style. If people were excited by Amorim they should be excited by Slot.
Of course other managers could be considered but Slot absolutely seems a logical choice.
Thanks for that, good post.
Just can’t help feeling underwhelmed, I thought we would go for a proven manager to build on what Klopp has done. He will obviously be given a chance by the fans but the bit about doing it at a financially challenged club makes me worry that FSG want someone who is fine with not buying players to strengthen.
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