Author Topic: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States  (Read 82174 times)

Online AndyMuller

  • Has always wondered how to do it. Rice, Rice, Baby. Wants to have George Michael. Would batter A@A at karate.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,485
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1320 on: October 23, 2021, 11:36:43 pm »
What was the deal with him holding his arms out during the interview in a live studio? It looked like his arms were resting on an invisible podium? Was it just video edits by the right to buzz off him?

Online jambutty

  • The Gok Wan of RAWK. Tripespotting Advocate. Oakley style guru. Hardman St. arl arse "Ridiculously cool" -Atko-
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,394
  • Justice for Neda
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1321 on: October 26, 2021, 05:38:14 am »
Politico
Fellow Dems lobby Manchin as he gets closer to 'yes'
By Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett - Yesterday 10:56 PM


While Joe Manchin says a deal is close on his party's $1 trillion-plus social spending bill, several Senate colleagues are taking the opportunity to nudge him for a last-minute agreement on their priorities.

The West Virginian sounded optimistic about an agreement on a social spending framework as soon as this week, but acknowledged he still has problems with several provisions in the package. That list includes the party’s efforts to expand health care benefits and create a federal paid leave program — two issues on which fellow Democrats are starting to lobby him directly.

Acknowledging the headwinds that paid leave faces with Manchin, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said on Monday evening she is "starting a new conversation" with him on what he might accept.

“I can tell you Sen. Manchin is interested in an employer and employee based [plan], and I am negotiating with him right now to see if we can include paid leave in a final package," she said.

Gillibrand isn’t alone. Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) are also working to assuage Manchin’s concerns about the party's push to close the Medicaid coverage gap. Despite the centrist's public concerns earlier in the day, Warnock said Monday evening that as far as he knew, the Medicaid expansion would still be included in the social spending package.

The back-and-forth with Manchin comes as the White House and Democratic leaders push for an agreement on an outline for the bill before President Joe Biden leaves for an overseas trip that includes a global summit on climate change. Though most in the party are bullish about a deal that can unite progressive and moderate factions, Manchin and the White House are still haggling over a top line number, as well as exactly which programs to include and for how long.

Asked if he could agree to a $1.75 trillion social spending bill, Manchin reiterated that he still wants the price tag to remain at $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, Democratic leaders are still pushing for roughly $2 trillion after coming down from $3.5 trillion, a climbdown that's bound to require big slashes to specific policy proposals.

“I'm concerned about an awful lot of things,” Manchin said.

House leaders are currently eyeing a Wednesday vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which they’re aiming to pass before the Oct. 31 expiration of federal surface transportation funding. But in order to get that vote slotted, they need a framework with support from Manchin and the second centrist holdout, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), in the next 48 hours.

A spokesperson for Sinema said the senator “continued discussions throughout the weekend, and progress continues to be made.” Sinema has been working with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on proposals that would bring in revenues from the wealthy and corporations without raising rates on corporations or high-income earners.

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said Monday that Democrats plan to introduce the so-called billionaires tax, a proposal Manchin also backs, “in the next two days."

“I support basically everyone paying their fair share of taxes,” Manchin said Monday. “We all have a different approach to that. But as far as on the taxation, I think that corporations should be paying at least a minimum if you're doing business in the United States.”

Senate Democrats are also working to finalize key policy priorities in the social spending package and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the party is down to “three to four outstanding issues.”

Manchin, who chairs the Energy Committee, met Monday afternoon with Schumer, Wyden, Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.) on the climate provisions. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Democrats were pursuing a third option on immigration reform that would provide temporary status to certain undocumented workers.

Without an agreed-upon outline for the social spending plan, House progressives are set to line up against the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which wouldn't bode well for the party ahead of the Virginia gubernatorial election next week.

“We want to have an agreement so we can go forward,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday as she left a meeting with House Democratic leadership.

Over the weekend, paid family leave and Medicare benefits for vision, dental and hearing were potentially on the chopping block amid opposition from Manchin and resistance from Sinema in some respects. Manchin did not detail specific concerns with the party's proposed paid leave program, but he said Monday that he’s still working on reaching an understanding with his colleagues on the bill’s Medicaid provisions.

Manchin told reporters on Monday that he's worried about creating inequity between states that have already expanded Medicaid — which include his home state of West Virginia — and those that have not. Expansion states pay 10 percent of the cost of the expansion, and 12 states have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage.

"The problem that I have with that one right now, we're paying 90/10. So 10 percent is being paid by all the states. For states that held out and be rewarded 100 percent is not fair," Manchin said.

The Medicaid assistance in the bill is a top priority for House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Warnock, who hail from states where hundreds of thousands of poor people would be able to enroll in the program. That amounts to a tangible win they and other red-state Democrats could campaign on next year.

“He’s raised some concerns and I think I’ve answered them,” Warnock said Monday. “Some are saying that it is unfair to people in the expansion states. I think what’s unfair is for the people of Georgia to be paying for health care that they can’t access.”

In addition to explaining his position on Medicaid, Manchin detailed his qualms with the Medicare expansion that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has championed. Sanders declined to comment.

Manchin said that his "big concern right now" is the current projection that Medicare would hit a point of fiscal insolvency in 2026, complicating the path to an expansion.

“Medicare and Social Security is a lifeline to people back in West Virginia, most people around the country," he told reporters. "You've got to stabilize that first before you look at basically expansion so if you're not being fiscally responsible that's really concerning.”

Another enormous issue for many Democrats, both progressives and centrists, is allowing the federal government to negotiate drug prices in some fashion. One idea being discussed is allowing Medicare to negotiate prices on a limited number of drugs, similar to the Veterans Affairs' system, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The issue hasn't been settled yet, and some Democrats are worried it could get further watered down.

As the negotiations drag on, some progressive lawmakers are growing anxious about what will be included in the package.

"I'm very concerned," said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), citing policy priorities like funding for housing, pre-school and community college. "We're way past the moment when everything needs to be locked down."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fellow-dems-lobby-manchin-as-he-gets-closer-to-yes/ar-AAPWa9Y?li=BBnb7Kz
Yul never wore cologne.

Offline ShakaHislop

  • Shocktrooper of the Vinny Cable Nasties
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,615
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1322 on: October 26, 2021, 06:15:47 pm »
The entire party, progressives included, have completely caved to Manchin and Sinema. They should be embarrassed.

Online Chakan

  • Chaka Chaka.....is in love with Aristotle but only for votes. The proud owner of some very private piles and an inflatable harem!
  • Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 82,785
  • Internet Terrorist lvl VI
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1323 on: October 26, 2021, 06:16:31 pm »
Democrats are a joke.

Online John C

  • RAWK Staff
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 37,501
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1324 on: October 26, 2021, 10:12:39 pm »
As usual, we need all US folks to get out and vote in numbers to increase the Dems politicians at every level so they don't rely on pricks like those two.

Offline stevensr123

  • bedwetter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,636
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1325 on: October 26, 2021, 10:24:29 pm »
As usual, we need all US folks to get out and vote in numbers to increase the Dems politicians at every level so they don't rely on pricks like those two.
I think it’s extremely naive to think it’s only those two that are the problem. They are just the dumb ones who took the hit. The Democratic Party are basically Tories who portray themselves as being socially just - but always seem to have road blocks to do anything serious - by design imo.
PUSSY cat, PUSSY cat, I love you,  yes I do.......

Offline ShakaHislop

  • Shocktrooper of the Vinny Cable Nasties
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,615
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1326 on: October 26, 2021, 11:10:52 pm »
Quote
The Corporate Profits Minimum Tax would:
 Apply to roughly 200 companies that report over $1 billion in profits;
 Create a 15% minimum tax on the profits that these giant companies report to
shareholders;
 Preserve the value of business credits – including R&D, clean energy, and housing tax
credits – and allow credits for taxes paid to foreign countries;
 Include some flexibilities for companies to carry forward losses and claim a minimum tax
credit against regular tax in future years;

 Raise hundreds of billions in revenue over 10 years.

https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Warren-King-Wyden%20Corporate%20Profits%20Minimum%20Tax%20-%20One%20Pager.pdf

So some of those companies will possibly still pay under 15% (once you factor in the parts in bold)?

Online John C

  • RAWK Staff
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 37,501
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1327 on: October 26, 2021, 11:17:15 pm »
I think it’s extremely naive to think it’s only those two that are the problem. They are just the dumb ones who took the hit. The Democratic Party are basically Tories who portray themselves as being socially just - but always seem to have road blocks to do anything serious - by design imo.
But at the moment the Dems are treading a fine line to retain the Senate so they are having to accommodate Manchin and Sinema. We need more Dem Senators and Congress people, only achieved by people voting in huge numbers.
I'm not sure what's naive about that mate.

Offline Garrus

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,401
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1328 on: October 27, 2021, 04:53:00 am »
https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Warren-King-Wyden%20Corporate%20Profits%20Minimum%20Tax%20-%20One%20Pager.pdf

So some of those companies will possibly still pay under 15% (once you factor in the parts in bold)?
Yep, but those two items in bold are fairly common in most nations.

Offline ShakaHislop

  • Shocktrooper of the Vinny Cable Nasties
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,615
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1329 on: October 27, 2021, 04:00:11 pm »
But at the moment the Dems are treading a fine line to retain the Senate so they are having to accommodate Manchin and Sinema. We need more Dem Senators and Congress people, only achieved by people voting in huge numbers.
I'm not sure what's naive about that mate.

That doesn't really address the point stevensr123 was making though. This past week alone, Angus King has reiterated his opposition to abolishing the filibuster and Bob Menendez has pushed back against the idea of Medicare directly negotiating drug prices with the pharmaceutical companies. "Voting blue no matter who" isn't the solution to those problems. There's no guarantee new Dem senators won't be as obstructionist as the likes of Manchin and Sinema either. Sinema was supposed to be this kooky, former Green uber liberal.

Yep, but those two items in bold are fairly common in most nations.

This is supposed to be "Building Back Better" though.

I'd have less of a problem with it if this minimum tax idea was in tandem with raising the usual corporation tax rates, but the latter isn't happening because Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are refusing to call Queen Sinema's, who opposes such a tax rise, bluff.

Online jambutty

  • The Gok Wan of RAWK. Tripespotting Advocate. Oakley style guru. Hardman St. arl arse "Ridiculously cool" -Atko-
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,394
  • Justice for Neda
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1330 on: October 27, 2021, 04:28:56 pm »
I can’t figure her out.

Best I can do is she sees how Manchin is the most powerful Dem in the Senate and everyone bends to his will.  Her vote is equally important yet she’s considered an outlier in the Party cos she appears........ wacky and unpredictable.

Voted with Fungus Dick over 50% of the time and was more conservative than Murkowski or Collins.
Yul never wore cologne.

Offline Garrus

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,401
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1331 on: October 27, 2021, 05:49:20 pm »
That doesn't really address the point stevensr123 was making though. This past week alone, Angus King has reiterated his opposition to abolishing the filibuster and Bob Menendez has pushed back against the idea of Medicare directly negotiating drug prices with the pharmaceutical companies. "Voting blue no matter who" isn't the solution to those problems. There's no guarantee new Dem senators won't be as obstructionist as the likes of Manchin and Sinema either. Sinema was supposed to be this kooky, former Green uber liberal.

This is supposed to be "Building Back Better" though.

I'd have less of a problem with it if this minimum tax idea was in tandem with raising the usual corporation tax rates, but the latter isn't happening because Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are refusing to call Queen Sinema's, who opposes such a tax rise, bluff.
What is proposed in the link you've provided is definitely better than what is currently the case. It says Amazon paid an effective tax on profits equivalent to 4.3% when it should have been closer to 21%.  With these new proposals, I imagine some of the exemptions and deductions they're currently claiming would be disallowed and they'd pay somewhere nearer a minimum of 15%. R&D credits, clean tax credits are pretty much government incentives for companies to invest in those areas and foreign tax credits are agreed on a mutual basis between countries anyway so they were never going to go away. Credit against regular tax isn't something to worry about, it's just that if you've paid $10m minimum tax but your actual corporate tax bill is $25m, you just need to pay the differential $15m at the time of filing the returns.

I think it's definitely better than the status quo.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2021, 05:51:20 pm by Garrus »

Online John C

  • RAWK Staff
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 37,501
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1332 on: October 27, 2021, 06:18:46 pm »
That doesn't really address the point stevensr123 was making though. This past week alone, Angus King has reiterated his opposition to abolishing the filibuster and Bob Menendez has pushed back against the idea of Medicare directly negotiating drug prices with the pharmaceutical companies. "Voting blue no matter who" isn't the solution to those problems. There's no guarantee new Dem senators won't be as obstructionist as the likes of Manchin and Sinema either. Sinema was supposed to be this kooky, former Green uber liberal.

Well isn't it better to explain as such like you have then!

Online Gods_Left_Boot

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,389
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1333 on: October 27, 2021, 08:46:11 pm »
I can’t figure her out.


Voted with Fungus Dick over 50% of the time and was more conservative than Murkowski or Collins.

You know you're shit when you compare unfavourably to Susan "Concerned" Collins.
September 12, 2012:Truth today, justice tomorrow.

Oliver Kay ‏@OliverKayTimes
Those who've campaigned for the truth on Hillsborough were once a suppressed minority. Now the minority are those left clinging to the lies.

My idea was to build Liverpool into a bastion of invincibility. Napoleon had that idea. He wanted to conquer the bloody world.

Offline ChaChaMooMoo

  • A cow, a moose and a dog walk into a bar. Knows a thing or two about cars and stuff. No really! Knows only a thing or two. And loves his kebab. Who doesn't? Oh. And a Mazdamaniac!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,336
  • Justice shall prevail.
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1334 on: October 27, 2021, 09:19:04 pm »
You know you're shit when you compare unfavourably to Susan "Concerned" Collins.

Sinema doesn't care about all those semantics to be honest.

Manchin and Sinema have got the dems by the balls and certainly hold a lot of leverage to get things "their way"

Offline ShakaHislop

  • Shocktrooper of the Vinny Cable Nasties
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,615
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1335 on: October 28, 2021, 12:40:44 am »
The entire thread is worth a read.

Quote
Senate Democrats have decided to drop paid family and medical leave, a key cornerstone of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, from their mammoth social spending package Wednesday after attempts to drastically pare it down were deemed insufficient, three sources tell me.

https://twitter.com/eleanor_mueller/status/1453458747192451078

At this point, Biden should consider rolling the provisions of the bipartisan infrastructure bill into the reconciliation bill (while restoring the provisions of that back to its $3.5t form) and basically dare Manchin, Sinema and whoever else to vote down the one big bill. Are they that committed to destroying the paid leave/Medicare etc parts of his agenda (for their benefit of their donors) that they're willing to forego being able to champion the bipartisan bill they were a part of negotiating?

Online Chakan

  • Chaka Chaka.....is in love with Aristotle but only for votes. The proud owner of some very private piles and an inflatable harem!
  • Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 82,785
  • Internet Terrorist lvl VI
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1336 on: October 28, 2021, 12:43:01 am »
Democrats are the absolute best at shooting themselves in the foot.

With the republicans at least they're all on the same shit stain of a page all the time. Want something passed? Control the house they pass it no muss no fuss.

Democrats wants something passed control the house? Nope in fighting and disagreements. What a bunch of useless c*nts.

Online Dave McCoy

  • "Don't you know who I am?!"
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,827
  • 11,053ft up
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1337 on: October 28, 2021, 12:58:50 am »
What exactly have R's passed in the last 21 years that wasn't a tax cut or giveaway of some sort to the Rich?  Judges?  I mean aside from stacking the Judiciary with right wing whack jobs which will fuck us now for decades they haven't done anything for almost half my life as their wish list is a joke that nobody wants.  Please tell me what the R's lock step party disclipline has delivered that wasn't already handed to them by their massive disinformation apparatus?

To that end some of the posters on here are like the NYTimes Pitchbot parody twitter account in that Democrats win but somehow the narrative is we lose anyway.  We're going to pass something and it's not ideal, it's not even near what's needed but it's something and we fucking move on from there.  Manchin sucks, Sinema sucks but it's what we got and the only other option is just conceding 2022 which we might lose regardless because historically the party in power always loses the midterms.  And then what?  We get nothing?  I'll take $1.5T of something now instead of holding out on principal, losing as expected and then getting nothing.

Long term though we need to get this gerontocracy the fuck out of politics.  Our leaders have been making bad choices for a long time now that has boxed us into these types of situations and long term we need to rebrand and refresh as if I have to vote one more fucking time for these same hacks I'm done.

Offline ShakaHislop

  • Shocktrooper of the Vinny Cable Nasties
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,615
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1338 on: October 28, 2021, 02:01:57 am »
What exactly have R's passed in the last 21 years that wasn't a tax cut or giveaway of some sort to the Rich?  Judges?  I mean aside from stacking the Judiciary with right wing whack jobs which will fuck us now for decades they haven't done anything for almost half my life as their wish list is a joke that nobody wants.  Please tell me what the R's lock step party disclipline has delivered that wasn't already handed to them by their massive disinformation apparatus?

To that end some of the posters on here are like the NYTimes Pitchbot parody twitter account in that Democrats win but somehow the narrative is we lose anyway.  We're going to pass something and it's not ideal, it's not even near what's needed but it's something and we fucking move on from there.  Manchin sucks, Sinema sucks but it's what we got and the only other option is just conceding 2022 which we might lose regardless because historically the party in power always loses the midterms.  And then what?  We get nothing?  I'll take $1.5T of something now instead of holding out on principal, losing as expected and then getting nothing.

Long term though we need to get this gerontocracy the fuck out of politics.  Our leaders have been making bad choices for a long time now that has boxed us into these types of situations and long term we need to rebrand and refresh as if I have to vote one more fucking time for these same hacks I'm done.

The Republicans and their record should be irrelevant to this discussion. The Dems have a trifecta yet despite that, they're still telling the voters that put them there that they have to settle for crumbs or that they didn't vote blue hard enough. People are rightfully pissed off by that.

What pressure has Biden, Schumer or Pelosi put on Manchin or Sinema? To my knowledge Biden's town hall last week, months into the negotiation process, was the first time he mentioned them by name in the context of their obstruction on the reconciliation bill and even then, his reaction was essentially to shrug his shoulders. Schumer signed a secret document months ago, which only emerged a few weeks back, which included Manchin's expectation of a $1.5t price tag.

If the Dem leadership pulled out all of the stops, whether that's sending Biden to make speeches in West Virginia and Arizona/live television addresses to the nation, threatening Manchin with investigations into the allegations regarding his daughter's epi-pen business, threatening to strip the both of them of committee positions or endorsements/funding in their next primaries, then I think there'd be less anger. However there's been none of that. If they, or you think those efforts would ultimately fail, that's fair enough but not trying in the first place means you can never be (pleasantly) proven wrong.

Instead any pressure is being put on the people who aren't the problem here, the progressives.

Quote
Biden expected to be on Capitol Hill tomorrow morning at 9am House Dem Caucus meeting, per source. The goal in part is to convince progressives to vote for infrastructure bill. Dem leaders want bill on floor as soon as tomorrow. WH hasn’t announced Hill visit yet

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1453516904463847428

The progressives have been insisting that Pelosi sticks to her original plan which was to only put the infrastructure bill to a House vote after the Senate had passed the reconciliation bill, for (understandable) fear that once the House passes the infrastructure bill, it removes a big incentive for Manchin/Sinema to play ball with the reconciliation process. Instead, Pelosi is now trying to pressure the progressives into accepting a mere "framework" for the reconciliation bill, which Manchin and Sinema can easily renege on later.

Online Chakan

  • Chaka Chaka.....is in love with Aristotle but only for votes. The proud owner of some very private piles and an inflatable harem!
  • Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 82,785
  • Internet Terrorist lvl VI
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1339 on: October 28, 2021, 03:04:37 am »
@Dave no one is saying the republicans are helping by passing anything for the public, all I’m saying is that when they pass something they’re all on fucking board with it. They’re a group of c*nts together. Whereas the democrats are fighting each other as well as Republicans to pass shit. It’s fucking annoying  that they can’t get their shit together

Offline RedG13

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,736
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1340 on: October 28, 2021, 08:08:39 am »
The entire thread is worth a read.

https://twitter.com/eleanor_mueller/status/1453458747192451078

At this point, Biden should consider rolling the provisions of the bipartisan infrastructure bill into the reconciliation bill (while restoring the provisions of that back to its $3.5t form) and basically dare Manchin, Sinema and whoever else to vote down the one big bill. Are they that committed to destroying the paid leave/Medicare etc parts of his agenda (for their benefit of their donors) that they're willing to forego being able to champion the bipartisan bill they were a part of negotiating?
Paid family leave is good but how it was written was really bad. Biden plan was good then Richard Neal just basically put in the lobbyist version
https://prospect.org/health/paid-leave-advocates-wont-push-back-on-payouts-to-private-insurance/

Offline stevensr123

  • bedwetter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,636
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1341 on: October 28, 2021, 01:04:22 pm »
The infrastructure bill is pretty much similar to what the trump administration was trying to do - sell off existing infrastructure to private investors in order to fund new infrastructure. Meaning more toll roads, greater cost of living to the average joe etc and more lining the profits or corporations (getting tax payer funded property on the cheap).

The green part of the bill is crap as well, it’s funding blue hydrogen, which is worse than burning coal.

This bill should be dead - it’s a crap bill and nothing like what was promised. Every single aspect has been watered down to the point it’s counter productive and is just more of the same - moving tax payers money to private corporations.
PUSSY cat, PUSSY cat, I love you,  yes I do.......

Online jambutty

  • The Gok Wan of RAWK. Tripespotting Advocate. Oakley style guru. Hardman St. arl arse "Ridiculously cool" -Atko-
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,394
  • Justice for Neda
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1342 on: October 29, 2021, 12:46:01 pm »
Daily Beast
Dems Leave Biden Empty-Handed Again After Chaotic Day on Capitol Hill
Sam Brodey  12 hrs ago


With his agenda in peril in advance of an international climate summit, President Joe Biden came to Capitol Hill on Thursday and pleaded with House Democrats to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill—to prove to the world that American democracy actually can work.

The scene inside the closed-door meeting became so earnestly patriotic and rah-rah that, in between cheers for the president, some lawmakers broke into a chant of “Vote! Vote! Vote!”

But as soon as Biden left the Capitol and boarded Air Force One en route to Europe, the impromptu episode of The West Wing ended. Lawmakers snapped back to the realities of American democracy. And it was a mess.

Over the next few hours, the familiar drama that has pitted factions of the Democratic Party against each other—or, more specifically, the vast majority of the Democratic Party against two Democratic senators—entered its chaotic third act.

By late Thursday morning, the White House and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s team revved up a push to get at least 218 Democrats to vote for the infrastructure bill. Vice President Kamala Harris began calling House progressives to try to get the infrastructure bill over the finish line, according to a source.

A White House official confirmed that account, telling The Daily Beast that “throughout the day,” Harris “has been making calls to House Democratic members about the [Build Back Better Act] framework.”

Pelosi’s leadership team also began whipping the legislation—something they didn’t do a month ago when the infrastructure bill was first supposed to pass the House.

But the whipping efforts quickly collided with the truth that there aren’t 218 Democrats ready to pass that bill without stronger assurances from Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) that they would in turn pass the other plank of Biden’s agenda.

That plank, a $1.75 trillion social spending package, looks to be moving toward completion. But Manchin and Sinema have only offered tepid support—Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) said Thursday they were speaking in “hieroglyphics”—and progressives are resolute that they won’t budge on the infrastructure bill until Manchin and Sinema fully back the legislation.

With progressives and the two senators at an impasse, House leaders conceded that neither bill would pass this week. After a day of uncertainty, lawmakers voted on an extension of expiring transportations programs that would have otherwise been taken care of in the infrastructure bill.

With that, the legislative chaos of the day was over. House Democrats continued with a hearing on their 1,684 page bill, even though that meeting was now unnecessary at the moment. Senators, as they’re wont to do on Thursdays, left town. And the House quickly followed suit.

The path ahead now remains unclear. One lawmaker said as many as 40 Democrats are prepared to vote down the infrastructure bill if an agreement with Manchin and Sinema is not reached. And a statement from the Progressive Caucus reaffirmed that a number of members in that group wouldn’t vote for the infrastructure measure without stronger assurances.

The problem is, however, that the two senators everyone is waiting on don’t seem any closer to declaring their support in a firmer way. Nor do they seem inclined to explain much of their position.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) said neither of them sees that their ambiguity is feeding other Democrats’ belief that they are not interested in passing the broader package.

“They don’t feel there’s anything more they need to say,” Coons told reporters.

In the interim, the back-and-forth is raising the blood pressure of Democrats who desperately want to get this agenda enacted.

Democrats believed Biden wanted a win that he could tout at a high-stakes international climate conference in Scotland this weekend. Now, it looks like he’ll arrive empty-handed.

Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) said he was “disappointed” that the infrastructure bill didn’t pass on Thursday. But he also indicated that if Democrats don’t trust each other, they should trust Biden.

“I don’t believe we should trust Manchin and Sinema, but I do trust the president,” Beyer said.

Indeed, all the president could offer at a meeting with House Democrats on Thursday morning was his promise to get everything done. One lawmaker in the room said that nearly everyone was inclined to take the president at his word, but many were not sold that he could bring Manchin and Sinema along to support the framework his administration outlined on Thursday morning.

And despite efforts from House leaders, the vice president, and other administration officials—Michael Regan, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, addressed members of the Congressional Black Caucus Thursday in support of the legislation—the whip efforts did not break the resolve of progressives.

Still, the fact that the administration and Democratic leaders made the push at all is a departure from their strategy in a near-identical stand-off over the infrastructure bill last month, when moderates tried to force a vote on it before much of the Build Back Better Act was ready.

As Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA) said, that effort and engagement from Biden was enough. He said he’d have voted against the infrastructure deal on Wednesday. But after the president’s visit, he said he would have supported it.

“When your President comes to your caucus and looks you in the eye and tells you that he can get it done, and when your Speaker of the House—who has demonstrated leadership capabilities as has the president—she tells you, ‘we're going to get it done,” Johnson said, “I'm going to put my money on those two horses.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dems-leave-biden-empty-handed-again-after-chaotic-day-on-capitol-hill/ar-AAQ4vDl?ocid=msedgdhp
Yul never wore cologne.

Online jambutty

  • The Gok Wan of RAWK. Tripespotting Advocate. Oakley style guru. Hardman St. arl arse "Ridiculously cool" -Atko-
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,394
  • Justice for Neda
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1343 on: October 30, 2021, 04:09:06 am »
$1.9T.  Done. Sinema and Manchin on board.
Yul never wore cologne.

Offline BarryCrocker

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,943
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1344 on: October 30, 2021, 07:39:57 am »
$1.9T.  Done. Sinema and Manchin on board.

Is a genuinely good deal? I've read that it just kicking the can down the road, billionaires are armed with the best lawyers and family trust schemes (plus they can just move country), blue hydrogen is not a solution, health/child care not as good as it should be.

I suppose something is better than nothing. With the mid-terms coming it better to a difference being felt by the many before they go to vote.
And all the world is football shaped, It's just for me to kick in space. And I can see, hear, smell, touch, taste.

Offline ShakaHislop

  • Shocktrooper of the Vinny Cable Nasties
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,615
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1345 on: November 1, 2021, 07:02:32 pm »
$1.9T.  Done. Sinema and Manchin on board.

Today, Manchin held a press conference in which he publicly stated he may still not support the reconciliation bill yet it seems Jayapal and the progressives are still going to vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill anyway and give up their leverage. Dems have the backbone of a jellyfish.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1455234730203525128

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1455246896847589376

Offline skipper757

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,686
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1346 on: November 2, 2021, 02:06:17 pm »
Big statewide elections tonight in VA.  McAuliffe hasn't run a great campaign, and Youngkin has been able to pull off being "Trumpian" without associating himself too much with Trump himself, who is unpopular in the state.  Education has become a major topics, and Youngkin's seized on it.  McAuliffe's tried a lot to link Youngkin to Trump, but don't know if that's the best strategy.  Given Biden's overall unpopularity, it's the first major test.  Virginia is the state of suburbs (which in turn means the state of the establishment Democrats and can be, though not always, a decent barometer for things like suburban turnout by party).  Won't bode well for 2022 midterms for the House if McAuliffe loses or barely wins.

2020 Presidential:  Democrat win (Biden)
2020 Senate:  Democrat win (Warner)
2018 Senate:  Democrat win (Kaine)
2017 Gubernatorial:  Democrat win (Northam)
2016 Presidential:  Democrat win (Clinton)
2014 Senate:  Democrat win (Warner)
2013 Gubernatorial:  Democrat win (McAuliffe)
2012 Presidential:  Democrat win (Obama)
2012 Senate:  Democrat win (Kaine)
2009 Gubernatorial:  Republican win (McDonnell)
2008 Presidential:  Democrat win (Obama)
2008 Senate:  Democrat win (Warner)
2006 Senate:  Democrat win (Webb)
2005 Gubernatorial:  Democrat win (Kaine)

No pressure, Terry.  Don't mess this up or we'll get flashbacks to 2009.
King Kenny.

Offline skipper757

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,686
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1347 on: November 2, 2021, 10:02:57 pm »
Early indications are that it's a dead heat for the election.  Polls close in an hour.  Could be a very close one.
King Kenny.

Offline skipper757

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,686
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1348 on: November 3, 2021, 03:20:27 am »
Democrats in big trouble in VA now.  Long way back down the line from governor, lt. governor, and attorney general.

If Youngkin wins, he'll be only the 2nd Republican to win statewide elections (governor, presidential, senate) in the last 15-20 years or so.

The exit polls didn't look good.  Thought it was overblown but it's coming to fruition.

Quote
So Youngkin needs an opening, and so far he's gone for the GOP businessman-like approach combined with an attempt at Trumpian politics, but not always by praising Trump, but recently praising Ron DeSantis instead (railing against mask mandates and praising who many think could be the next GOP star).  It's an approach to try and have his cake and eating it.  Education is also in the crosshairs this election, with the removal of the admission tests at one of the most prestigious high schools in the country (TJ) and discussion on Critical Race Theory at the center of it.  McAuliffe has attacked Youngkin for his Trumpian politics, but we'll have to see if it sticks.

On one hand, McAuliffe should win relatively comfortably.
-He's been governor before and was relatively popular.
-He's a classic establishment Democrat, a type of candidate with great success in the state and no conflicts with the party or anything.  He should also fundraise very easily given his background.
-He's not exciting but won't turn off the suburban types and have them run into Youngkin instead.  Youngkin's business-friendly message, even in the wealthy suburbs, might not attract many given that the Democrats are popular among this crowd anyway.
-The state's been trending blue for years and years.

On the other hand, it could end up being closer than at first look.
-Youngkin has the possibility of navigating away from the toxic Trump factor that previous GOP candidates the last few candidates couldn't navigate.
-He's new to politics without massive baggage or negative track record.
-The current Dem administration has been beset by controversy, with all three high-ranking officials (Ralph Northam, Justin Fairfax, and Mark Herring) having had previous scandals and history exposed.
-Biden's approval rating, while still strong, has been dipping.

If Youngkin can navigate the Trump factor and make some inroads in places like Fairfax, he's got a chance.  A 70-30 defeat there with high turnout and Youngkin's likely done.  A 58-42 defeat there with lower turnout (same as when McAuliffe and Warner ran close races in 2013 and 2014), and Youngkin's got a chance to pull the upset.

If McAuliffe wins by 5%+, Democrats can breath a sigh of relief.

If McAuliffe wins by a low margin or even loses, alarm bells should be going off.  If the suburban vote struggles, holding on to the 3 Virginia House seats won in 2018 could be difficult in the 2022 midterms.  The Democrats have a razor thin margin in the House, so they can't afford these types of losses.

A snippet from what I posted the above a few months ago, and it looks like Youngkin threaded the needle:
-He was somewhat Trumpian without fully going Trump and without embracing Trump.  McAuliffe kept trying to tie Trump to him but as it turns out, it didn't stick.
-He made the education issue really stick.  McAuliffe's gaffe about parents not having a say in what schools should teach fit perfectly in with the CRT stuff the GOP was running with and created a lot of fear with parents.  According to a CNN exit poll, education was the second most important issue (when does that every happen?)  Youngkin outperformed big time with parents.  There was also a bathroom sexual assault scandal in Loudoun County that was handled badly by the superindependent, and the GOP seized on it with more fear about bathrooms, trans, safety in schools, etc.  It was a confluence of issues that made McAuliffe underperform badly in an area that become important in 2021.
-While McAuliffe was popular as governor, he didn't seem to make it stick with what he can do for Virginia.  I didn't realize that Mark Herring ran again for AG.  He was one of the Democrats embroiled in controversy from last time.  The Virginia off-cycle elections also create a lot of fatigue.  If you look at the number of elections above, it's just hard to run a good campaign all the time.  I was wrong about Fairfax being that important:  McAuliffe will probably end up with the similar margin and turnout that Northam had, but he ended up underperforming in so many other crucial areas.

The VA gubernatorial race isn't necessarily that predictive of midterms, and there are certain aspects of it that are confined to Virginia:
1.  The concept of "Never Trumpers" is overblown when looking at the overall electorate, but it's a major factor in Virginia.  The Dems almost always win with establishment Democrats, and if the GOP nominates someone less Trumpy, it can definitely win voters back.  It doesn't mean that the GOP can run away from Trump elsewhere.
2.  The GOP will try to use the same plan for education I'd guess nationally, but I don't know if that'll stick.
3.  A year is a long time away.

That being said, the Dems have major issues.  Here are some:
1.  Biden is unpopular, and there's no easy win running against Trump.  A huge chunk of the issues don't have much to do with Biden, but the American electorate is all about short-termism.  Biden will be blamed for COVID policies, inflation, etc even though he wasn't the genesis of these issues.  Democrats are going to have to figure out an answer.  Republican mess, Democratic clean up.  Talking Trump isn't a sure winner.

2.  Democrats need to understand messaging and not take the electorate for granted.  There's some assumption that minority voters, for example, are some kind of monolith ("minority immigrants won't vote for the GOP."), but they aren't in anyway.  I read an analysis in Florida in 2020, the Democrats were eager to turn out likely Democrat voters in Florida, and those voters did turn out, to vote for Trump.  There was a Washington Post article in the run to the election talking about how Hispanic and Asian voters could help Youngkin.  Will be curious to see more data, but that wouldn't surprise me, particularly the Asian voters.  Very diverse and completely different values all around.  One thing not to underestimate is this bloc's focus on education.  Left-leaning school boards in NoVa, San Francisco, etc have removed tests for admission to prestige public high schools in favor of more holistic reviews and lottery systems.  While younger Asians (again a generalization) support affirmative action, it wouldn't shock me to see older Asians pivot away.  The newest class at the prestige Thomas Jefferson High School saw a huge drop in Asian population.  For the parents, it's basically saying that their children's ability to showcase their qualifications in a standard fair test is removed in favor of another more arbitrary method, which means they could be left out (of course, testing isn't perfect either and test prep can be all about $$$, but that's what it looks like:  we have too many Asians at these schools.  We need to change the entrance requirements).  At the same time, Youngkin's fear-mongering on schools and McAuliffe's gaffe could've swung some Asian voters.  In general, some of these specific immigrant groups can be socially conservative or have an aversion to left-wing politics (Chinese/Vietnamese Americans for example, similar to Cuban/Venezuelan Americans).  They look like Democratic voters, but can swing enough to cause a ripple effect (Loudoun County, where McAuliffe is underperforming, is about 20% Asian).  A bit of rambling, but the takeaway is that turning out what looks like Dem voters could come back to hurt if the messaging and legislation aren't popular.  Turnout doesn't just mean wins.

3. Politics can and will be national.  Fox News is very eager to report all things AOC and tie her to every Dem candidate possible, even though she's not that relevant in the grand scheme of things.  The Democrats have to thread the needle here.  The reason the Dems have control is because of moderates in swing states/districts, but they have big progressive names in safe seats also that have successfully driven the direction of the party.  It's a balance to be struck, since elections are mostly local, but everything is now national (Twitter, Reddit, and websites aren't local broadcasting).  In the end, economic progress has been very difficult the last 30 years or so, but social progress has been made, with even businesses on board.  But that still doesn't address everyday problems, and the Dems will have to face the issue of advancing social progress with the GOP's push for culture wars.  Getting involved in culture wars is not a way to win, but neither is abandoning social progress.

All this leads to an uneasy look at the midterms.  While Virginia governor race isn't going to determine what happens with the Arizona Senate race or a suburban Dallas, but by last count, McAuliffe was underperforming in Loudoun, Richmond suburbs, and the tidewater.  Conveniently, that's where VA-10, VA-7, and VA-2 are located.  All three seats were flipped in 2018 by Democrats and won again in 2020.  But Democrats underperforming in those areas are a problem.  Given the margin of 5 in the House and uncertainty on redistricting impact, losing a couple of these House seats will almost certainly doom Democrats.

The NJ governor's race could also end up very close.  This race, on the other hand, hasn't been focused on education but more on property taxes.  It'll be a different set of takeaways than the VA race, but one thing is for certain, the Democrats are not having a good night.

Too early for 2022 hot takes, but not a good night.
King Kenny.

Offline surfer. Fuck you generator.

  • surgood. As good as Suarez but CBA to play for us. Takes it on the chin and never holds a pointless grudge for several months.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,424
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1349 on: November 3, 2021, 04:06:59 am »
Cheers for that skipper,  always good to see your info,  analysis on these things.

Offline Mimi

  • Maguire!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,023
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1350 on: November 3, 2021, 06:06:47 am »
That is very informative, Skipper.

It’s a bit shocking that Democrats have such poor understanding of what motivates diverse ethnic groups at the polls. I recall reading similar sentiments even after Biden won. These groups want to hear narratives, and it seems that Democrats have a knack of churning out the most unimaginative candidates around.

As for culture war, half of your country seems to be actively engaged in one. So for Democrats not to acknowledge what are the battles in the war is suicidal. If Democrats cannot talk about race, then the Republicans control the narrative.

Given how knowledgeable you are: How influential was the CRT issue? What exactly did McAuliffe run on?

Online John C

  • RAWK Staff
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 37,501
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1351 on: November 3, 2021, 08:11:09 am »
Thanks skipper, I've only glanced that as I need to start work but it looks very informative, albeit depressing.

Online Wild Romany Boy

  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 613
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1352 on: November 3, 2021, 12:18:32 pm »
Democrats in big trouble in VA now.  Long way back down the line from governor, lt. governor, and attorney general.

If Youngkin wins, he'll be only the 2nd Republican to win statewide elections (governor, presidential, senate) in the last 15-20 years or so.

The exit polls didn't look good.  Thought it was overblown but it's coming to fruition.

A snippet from what I posted the above a few months ago, and it looks like Youngkin threaded the needle:
-He was somewhat Trumpian without fully going Trump and without embracing Trump.  McAuliffe kept trying to tie Trump to him but as it turns out, it didn't stick.
-He made the education issue really stick.  McAuliffe's gaffe about parents not having a say in what schools should teach fit perfectly in with the CRT stuff the GOP was running with and created a lot of fear with parents.  According to a CNN exit poll, education was the second most important issue (when does that every happen?)  Youngkin outperformed big time with parents.  There was also a bathroom sexual assault scandal in Loudoun County that was handled badly by the superindependent, and the GOP seized on it with more fear about bathrooms, trans, safety in schools, etc.  It was a confluence of issues that made McAuliffe underperform badly in an area that become important in 2021.
-While McAuliffe was popular as governor, he didn't seem to make it stick with what he can do for Virginia.  I didn't realize that Mark Herring ran again for AG.  He was one of the Democrats embroiled in controversy from last time.  The Virginia off-cycle elections also create a lot of fatigue.  If you look at the number of elections above, it's just hard to run a good campaign all the time.  I was wrong about Fairfax being that important:  McAuliffe will probably end up with the similar margin and turnout that Northam had, but he ended up underperforming in so many other crucial areas.

The VA gubernatorial race isn't necessarily that predictive of midterms, and there are certain aspects of it that are confined to Virginia:
1.  The concept of "Never Trumpers" is overblown when looking at the overall electorate, but it's a major factor in Virginia.  The Dems almost always win with establishment Democrats, and if the GOP nominates someone less Trumpy, it can definitely win voters back.  It doesn't mean that the GOP can run away from Trump elsewhere.
2.  The GOP will try to use the same plan for education I'd guess nationally, but I don't know if that'll stick.
3.  A year is a long time away.

That being said, the Dems have major issues.  Here are some:
1.  Biden is unpopular, and there's no easy win running against Trump.  A huge chunk of the issues don't have much to do with Biden, but the American electorate is all about short-termism.  Biden will be blamed for COVID policies, inflation, etc even though he wasn't the genesis of these issues.  Democrats are going to have to figure out an answer.  Republican mess, Democratic clean up.  Talking Trump isn't a sure winner.

2.  Democrats need to understand messaging and not take the electorate for granted.  There's some assumption that minority voters, for example, are some kind of monolith ("minority immigrants won't vote for the GOP."), but they aren't in anyway.  I read an analysis in Florida in 2020, the Democrats were eager to turn out likely Democrat voters in Florida, and those voters did turn out, to vote for Trump.  There was a Washington Post article in the run to the election talking about how Hispanic and Asian voters could help Youngkin.  Will be curious to see more data, but that wouldn't surprise me, particularly the Asian voters.  Very diverse and completely different values all around.  One thing not to underestimate is this bloc's focus on education.  Left-leaning school boards in NoVa, San Francisco, etc have removed tests for admission to prestige public high schools in favor of more holistic reviews and lottery systems.  While younger Asians (again a generalization) support affirmative action, it wouldn't shock me to see older Asians pivot away.  The newest class at the prestige Thomas Jefferson High School saw a huge drop in Asian population.  For the parents, it's basically saying that their children's ability to showcase their qualifications in a standard fair test is removed in favor of another more arbitrary method, which means they could be left out (of course, testing isn't perfect either and test prep can be all about $$$, but that's what it looks like:  we have too many Asians at these schools.  We need to change the entrance requirements).  At the same time, Youngkin's fear-mongering on schools and McAuliffe's gaffe could've swung some Asian voters.  In general, some of these specific immigrant groups can be socially conservative or have an aversion to left-wing politics (Chinese/Vietnamese Americans for example, similar to Cuban/Venezuelan Americans).  They look like Democratic voters, but can swing enough to cause a ripple effect (Loudoun County, where McAuliffe is underperforming, is about 20% Asian).  A bit of rambling, but the takeaway is that turning out what looks like Dem voters could come back to hurt if the messaging and legislation aren't popular.  Turnout doesn't just mean wins.

3. Politics can and will be national.  Fox News is very eager to report all things AOC and tie her to every Dem candidate possible, even though she's not that relevant in the grand scheme of things.  The Democrats have to thread the needle here.  The reason the Dems have control is because of moderates in swing states/districts, but they have big progressive names in safe seats also that have successfully driven the direction of the party.  It's a balance to be struck, since elections are mostly local, but everything is now national (Twitter, Reddit, and websites aren't local broadcasting).  In the end, economic progress has been very difficult the last 30 years or so, but social progress has been made, with even businesses on board.  But that still doesn't address everyday problems, and the Dems will have to face the issue of advancing social progress with the GOP's push for culture wars.  Getting involved in culture wars is not a way to win, but neither is abandoning social progress.

All this leads to an uneasy look at the midterms.  While Virginia governor race isn't going to determine what happens with the Arizona Senate race or a suburban Dallas, but by last count, McAuliffe was underperforming in Loudoun, Richmond suburbs, and the tidewater.  Conveniently, that's where VA-10, VA-7, and VA-2 are located.  All three seats were flipped in 2018 by Democrats and won again in 2020.  But Democrats underperforming in those areas are a problem.  Given the margin of 5 in the House and uncertainty on redistricting impact, losing a couple of these House seats will almost certainly doom Democrats.

The NJ governor's race could also end up very close.  This race, on the other hand, hasn't been focused on education but more on property taxes.  It'll be a different set of takeaways than the VA race, but one thing is for certain, the Democrats are not having a good night.

Too early for 2022 hot takes, but not a good night.

This is, by a distance, the most informative post, for me, that I have ever read on RAWK.

Thank you for writing it.

Offline Linudden

  • Twpsyn gwirion
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,450
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1353 on: November 3, 2021, 01:50:11 pm »
While governors' races are always a bit difficult to gague on a national political scale, it's still quite clear that the Dems have lost a ton in just one year within the suburban electorate and that Virginia could actually be competitive if Trump stays out of 2024 and lets De Santis run in his place.

If anything, Virginia should be a pretty good gague for Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. If the Republican nominee wins all three that's a wrap.

Like Skipper pointed out, Latino voters swung strongly for Trump in certain swing-state areas in the south and even a place like LA County actually went slightly less blue in 2020 than in 2016. Democrat gains in 2020 were mainly driven by non-hispanic white female votes, but if Latino males overwhelmingly switch the other direction it becomes a very tricky prospect to compete when Texas and Florida gain electoral college seats at California's and New York's expense. The previous scenario of 269 apiece would suddenly mean 272-266 by default and a Republican win.

That Murphy will likely barely hold on to New Jersey of all places by a minimal margin and risks being a lame duck from day one is just further manifesting what a bad election night that was for the Dems and that they're in quite a lot of trouble. If huge anti-Trump sentiment and unrest only yielded a 50-50 senate and a nearly tied House, that's not a good sign for them already last year. Hopefully the orange buffoon stays out of 2024, but that's a fading hope by the week considering his manners and behaviour. If he runs versus Biden or Harris, I think the nutcase has a larger chance than 50/50 to win.

Offline fowlermagic

  • Ilittarate
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 12,524
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1354 on: November 3, 2021, 01:57:12 pm »
Skipper good post as you just summed up what will happen in 2022 I think as traditionally the American voter will keep the books balanced so if the Dems have the White House then within two years they will not have the House or Senate or both and visa versa if the Reps win the WH. No wonder politics and policies are so stagnant in the country as rarely does a President have a clean slate to push through their bills as even Obama had a free run in his first two years but played the game poorly. Biden will be a dead duck one term President next year and the Dems will have to run around and freshen up their chances to win the WH in 2024 as there is no way Harris will get the position. She will be tainted with Biden's hapless decisions as he and those in charge (Pelosi & Co.) are showing their age who run the same plays year in year out. If you have 81 year olds leading the charge for a party who represent the younger voters something sure is rotten in the system.
I have a simple philosophy: Fill what's empty. Empty what's full. Scratch where it itches. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi5-V75v-6I

Offline lobsterboy

  • Sworn enemy of crayfishgirl
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,362
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1355 on: November 3, 2021, 01:58:15 pm »
Trump will get back in. Boris will as well.
The world is going to hell.

Offline Linudden

  • Twpsyn gwirion
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,450
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1356 on: November 3, 2021, 02:00:37 pm »
Any word on the House and Senate elections of either state? I suppose Virginia will be a tripe-Republican flip, but mainly wondering about the New Jersey ones. I assume state senates are like the federal ones in that rural areas have more seats per capita and if the gubernatiorial race is close there might be issues keeping all three chambers for Murphy.

Offline skipper757

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,686
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1357 on: November 3, 2021, 05:01:06 pm »
Any word on the House and Senate elections of either state? I suppose Virginia will be a tripe-Republican flip, but mainly wondering about the New Jersey ones. I assume state senates are like the federal ones in that rural areas have more seats per capita and if the gubernatiorial race is close there might be issues keeping all three chambers for Murphy.

Dems have the Virginia state Senate (no election until 2023) by a 21-19 margin.  Looks like GOP will take back the state House.  So Youngkin won't have control over everything but could probably get some of his agenda done.

That is very informative, Skipper.

It’s a bit shocking that Democrats have such poor understanding of what motivates diverse ethnic groups at the polls. I recall reading similar sentiments even after Biden won. These groups want to hear narratives, and it seems that Democrats have a knack of churning out the most unimaginative candidates around.

As for culture war, half of your country seems to be actively engaged in one. So for Democrats not to acknowledge what are the battles in the war is suicidal. If Democrats cannot talk about race, then the Republicans control the narrative.

Given how knowledgeable you are: How influential was the CRT issue? What exactly did McAuliffe run on?

AP did a survey of 2,500 voters in VA.

https://apnews.com/article/virginia-election-ap-votecast-survey-75520c5c9a245bee384526abc138a61a

"A quarter of Virginia voters said the debate over teaching critical race theory in schools was the single most important factor in their vote for governor, and 71% of those voters backed Youngkin."

This is wild and probably lends itself to the environment in VA itself and McAuliffe's missteps.  However, parents getting angry at school boards and frustrated with dealing with home learning isn't just a local phenomenon, but it was huge in this race.  It essentially became a battleground, and the Republicans seized the narrative locally.

McAuliffe's gaffe and focus on Trump meant this wasn't the most optimal campaign.  We'll never know how he truly could've won touting his credentials and vision.  He did have some ads about his time as governor but probably wasn't enough.  There's almost always some backlash against the party that won the presidency in these types of elections, but the funny thing is, McAuliffe was one of the few that bucked the trend.  Obama won in 2012 and by 2014 Warner barely won his Senate re-election.  Yet, McAuliffe did win the governor's race in 2013.  It helped him that he ran against Ken Cuccinelli and that Bob McDonnell (a Republican) was governor, but he was in an environment with a Democratic president that was losing in popularity.  This time around though, it was harder for him to attack since Trump wasn't the looming spectre that he had been.  What's different here is that the GOP didn't have a full primary, rather having delegates decide instead.  The Trumpian candidates didn't win.  Youngkin did.  If Trump had been on Twitter or was very active on the campaign trail, who knows what could've happened.  In the end, Youngkin managed to galvanize Trump voters and claw back suburbanites.  No guarantee that this will be the environment in 2022 or 2024 when Trump could be more active and cause more of a headache for the GOP.  That being said, Youngkin (and Ciattarelli too) would've laid out some blueprint for trying to capture suburban voters anyway they can, and the Democrats may need to pivot away from Trump (again, depends on his involvement).

The Democrats find it hard currently to talk things up (legislation is held up, inflation is high, COVID fatigue, etc).  McAuliffe has a record to fall on, but I don't know if he did enough there.  There are some options to push back on the culture stuff:
-Economy:  Despite it not being the Dems fault, there's a lot of problems that isn't going to be popular to talk about.  McAuliffe should've talked more about his leadership instead.
-Push back on culture wars:  Maybe if McAuliffe hadn't said what he said about parents.  But it's hard to attack it straight on.  CRT is a grad-level course with some elements taught in schools.  Shouldn't be all that controversial.  But when parents are frustrated by home learning, annoyed by COVID/restrictions, dismayed at schools' handling of safety, and then throwing this on top?  It's hard to push back, and it's emotional.  Maybe nationally, it's easier for the Dems, since not all these things boiled over, but the GOP will certainly push it.  There's the story of the mom who pulled her kids from school because her daughter came home and asked if "she was born evil because she was white."  Who knows if that's true, but that's the type of thing that the GOP can push, even nationally.  School boards are already a battleground.  Will probably get worse.  You're right.  Democrats can't pretend like there's no issue and no battle.
-Change the topic completely:  Much easier to do as opposition.  Like in 2018, Dems pushed back on Trump (focus on social issues) but also created a narrative on healthcare (GOP going to repeal ACA and not replace it; you'll lose health insurance).  It was quite effective.  Not sure if they can really pivot and get the upper hand as easily as the incumbent party but maybe.

Obama had the ACA and a recovery/stimulus and it still didn't prevent a 2009 VA and NJ loss and a 2010 midterm big loss.  Biden probably has less than that right now.  Democrats better get messaging fast.

Here's some NBC News Exit polling:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1455709644324749312
Virginia 2020 —> White women
50% Biden (D), 49% Trump (R)

Virginia 2021 —> White women
57% Youngkin (R), 43% McAuliffe (D)

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1455722698689196033

WHITE WOMEN COLLEGE GRADS
VA 2020: 58% Biden, 41% Trump
VA 2021: 62% McAuliffe, 38% Youngkin

WHITE WOMEN NON-COLLEGE
VA 2020: 56% Trump, 44% Biden
VA 2021: 75% Youngkin, 25% McAuliffe

Democrats continue to be very strong among college educated voters, but they continue to lose ground among non-college.  People talk about Labour being too "metropolitan elite" and the Dems have the same problem.  I wonder how much of that is due to the fact that campaigns, political consultants, politicians, etc are just too narrowly focused and surround themselves with people that live in bubbles.  College-educated voters can be sizable minority in some elections.  Relying on that group isn't going to work.

On ethnics groups, as you and Linudden have reinforced, the Democrats are not the best at understanding their motivations.  In this AP survey,

"Youngkin also appeared to make inroads with Latino voters, who closely divided between Youngkin and McAuliffe."

That's damning for a party that wants to bring more minority voters into the fold.

A lot of work to do, but no panic just yet:
-2022 is a year away
-There's always some backlash against the party that wins presidential elections
-VA had some very emotional local issues (may not be national)
-VA GOP didn't have a open, contentious Trump-filled primary
-McAuliffe campaigned poorly - too much Trump when he was more or less sidelined
-NJ has also elected plenty of GOP governors (Murphy getting re-elected would actually buck some historical trends)

That being said, there are some tangible problems:
-GOP has talked about making 2022 a referendum on culture - saw this play out in VA, particularly troubling in the suburbs where Dems made up a lot of ground against Trump (losing suburban votes while continuing to bleed rural votes and not addressing the education gap will hurt Dems bad)
-Margins are razor-thin in the House and Senate, so little room for error
-Supply chain and inflationary pressures could last through 2022 - leaving Democrats very vulnerable on the economy (again, not their fault but voters in the US are like that); hard to tout economic wins
-Motivational issues if things don't get done; minority voters not in the fold
King Kenny.

Online Chakan

  • Chaka Chaka.....is in love with Aristotle but only for votes. The proud owner of some very private piles and an inflatable harem!
  • Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 82,785
  • Internet Terrorist lvl VI
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1358 on: November 3, 2021, 05:11:31 pm »
5 months ago most of those c*nts haven't even heard the phrase" Critical Race Theory" 80% of them don't even know what it is.


Offline Linudden

  • Twpsyn gwirion
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,450
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: The Joe Biden Presidency Thread - 46th President of the United States
« Reply #1359 on: November 3, 2021, 07:54:57 pm »
I guess Youngkin will issue executive orders regarding the education system and withdrawal of covid regulations his first day in office. Then I assume he'll be playing a waiting game until the state senate rather inevitably flips GOP in 2023. This is since Biden still is the president then and a state senate election really only gets the opposition party voters out. Likewise, the state house going back to the Dems so long as they hold the presidency seems very far-fetched.

So in that sense, he'll presumably have accomplished most of his electoral promises already by executive action and won't need to do much else until he rather inevitably gets the bicameral majority and then can start pushing through his agenda until the end of the term.

I still believe the Dem candidate will win Virginia by a few points in a presidential election, but it narrowing mainly is what the GOP hopes for with regards to AZ, GA and NV, which is the whole point when it comes to control of the presidency and congress. All those three have substantial similarities to Virginia electorally, only with more Republicans in-state.

From a political standpoint, Youngkin has to be given credit for his electoral skills. It's very rare that you see a Republican win a blue state gubernatorial election while running on a very conservative platform. Regardless of what people think about his views, he's navigated a minefield to pull it off. It's basically the equivalent of Jon Tester holding Montana for the Dems.
« Last Edit: November 3, 2021, 08:12:45 pm by Linudden »