Listening to an education expert on R5L, and reading this very informative Twitter thread -
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1294170607643430912?s=19 - has given me a btter understanding of how shit this system is.
Basically, allocated grades assessed by teachers/schools are largely irrelevant. It's the pupil rankings by the teachers/schools that are used, with algorithms based heavily on previous school performance applied to decide the gradings for all pupils in a particular school.
It effectively builds in brakes on attainment and improvement if a school has been improving.
AFAIUI, it essentially applies the average of the last 3 or 5 years of grades attained by pupils of any particular school and applies that to this year's pupils of that school using the ranking list provided by the school. So (assuming a 3-year average) a school getting 70%, 75%, 80% passrates in subject, then forecasting an 85% passrate for 2020 (a reasonable progression on the face of it) would instead have their results for that subject downgraded toward the average passrate for the preceding 3 years, ie 75%. Within that, the school will be allocated a certain number of each grade for each subject. The school's rankings will decide who gets A*, A, B, etc
The real losers here are those pupils at schools that have in previous years not had high passrates. Those schools are almost all in areas of higher economic deprivation. Recent improvements in those schools, together with having gifted pupils or ones who have worked their socks off to get A* projections are disregarded.
This is a fundamental element of the way the system has been designed, and can only be the result of:
a) Incompetence - it hadn't occurred to the system designers what effect their system would have, and the hugely negative impact on widening access for pupils from economically deprived areas
b) It's a deliberate policy and the social engineering aspect - to suppress the grades of pupils from economically deprived areas and the widening of access to further education and especially to 'elite' universities - is part of this, whether by Ofqual or, more likely, Bozo's government of toffs.