Author Topic: Universal Basic Income  (Read 14852 times)

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,403
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2020, 03:40:09 pm »
Exactly but... you look at food... it’s the best example imo...

If there’s more money because people are getting higher incomes no matter how the price of everything goes up... not only because of supply and demand but pure greed basically

Ggroceries is an exremely competitive industry. Look at Aldi and Lidl undercutting the old bihg players. They will charge what they have to to get business.

And even in less competitive industries, if there is price inflation, people will be more free to start their own businesses to compete and undercut others as they will have the UBI to live on. UBI will make it easier for people to be entrepeneurs.

Offline Amatt

  • Amoo, Amass.....
  • Anny Roader
  • ****
  • Posts: 431
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #41 on: July 15, 2020, 04:27:34 pm »
You wouldn't get paid the same as someone sitting on their arse. If UBI was €200 a week, you'd both get €200, but you'd also earn whatever you got paid for your job.
.

Makes sense 👍

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #42 on: July 15, 2020, 06:45:13 pm »
If for example the market was flooded with sausages, the price of sausages would go down regardless of how much money people have.
The argument of we don't want everyone to have money as the price of everything would go up makes absolutely no sense to me. This has nothing to do with UBI, but we should really be striving to create a world where wealth inequality isn't as great. The wage disparity between the top and the bottom has increased exponentially in the last few decades and has had a detrimental affect on society.

Everyone wants more money. But what we really want is more purchasing power. If everyone gets free money, prices will go up. But you won't get any more purchasing power. That's the point though.

The wealth inequality has accelerated because of the low interest rate policy. We had a debt problem and solved it with even more debt. It's standard operating procedure. Debt is the elephant in the room. The desired solution is inflation and this is where UBI becomes attractive. This comes with some big risks too. Giving away money becomes a game of confidence. Do you trust the value of the currency? Those who buy and hold the government debt (e.g. pension funds) may soon discover that their assets are becoming worthless. So they may demand higher interest rates and that will cause things to crash.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline CraigDS

  • Lite. Smelt it and dealt it. Worrawhopper.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 61,469
  • YNWA
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #43 on: July 15, 2020, 06:47:58 pm »
Everyone wants more money. But what we really want is more purchasing power. If everyone gets free money, prices will go up. But you won't get any more purchasing power. That's the point though.

This is just simply not true.

Offline wampa1

  • Should probably leg it while he can......
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,016
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #44 on: July 15, 2020, 06:53:01 pm »
No incentive to work then is there?  Why should someone in a job get paid the same for someone sitting on their arse at home?
You wouldn't... but there would be incentive to maybe work part-time, which would open an opportunity for someone who doesn't work but wants to to also work part-time.

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #45 on: July 15, 2020, 07:17:08 pm »
This is just simply not true.

If everyone gets £1 per month, nothing will happen. If everyone gets £10k prices will go up a lot.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline CraigDS

  • Lite. Smelt it and dealt it. Worrawhopper.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 61,469
  • YNWA
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #46 on: July 15, 2020, 07:43:57 pm »
If everyone gets £1 per month, nothing will happen. If everyone gets £10k prices will go up a lot.

Explain.

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,403
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #47 on: July 15, 2020, 07:47:09 pm »
If everyone gets £1 per month, nothing will happen. If everyone gets £10k prices will go up a lot.

What if their is a lot of competition, with lots of companies trying to win business?

Offline CraigDS

  • Lite. Smelt it and dealt it. Worrawhopper.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 61,469
  • YNWA
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #48 on: July 15, 2020, 08:02:12 pm »
What if their is a lot of competition, with lots of companies trying to win business?

This is exactly it. There are so many economic reasons why more people being able to purchase an easily manufacturable / produceable product will bring the price down.

Fine, if the product is not in short supply and this is not possible to increase the more people who can purchase it will probably see the price increase, but the vast majority of products are not like this.

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #49 on: July 15, 2020, 08:05:37 pm »
Explain.

No new value is being produced. You have more money chasing the same number of products.

What if their is a lot of competition, with lots of companies trying to win business?

That's different. You have more products and the same amount of money. That will drive prices down. If you increase the money supply prices will go up.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,403
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #50 on: July 15, 2020, 08:12:54 pm »
No new value is being produced. You have more money chasing the same number of products.

That's different. You have more products and the same amount of money. That will drive prices down. If you increase the money supply prices will go up.

But that's my point, it will only drive prices up if there isn't competition. The grocery market for example, which was what was mentioned earlier, is very competitive with tiny margins.

As I said earlier it will also help with competition, because if you have a market with no competition and price gouging going on, with UBI you are going to have a lot of people suddenly able to introduce competition by starting their own businesses. UBI gives them the economic security to start their own businesses much easier.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 08:14:39 pm by Just Elmo? »

Offline CraigDS

  • Lite. Smelt it and dealt it. Worrawhopper.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 61,469
  • YNWA
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #51 on: July 15, 2020, 08:41:52 pm »
No new value is being produced. You have more money chasing the same number of products.

Why would there be the same number of products? I mean if you want to make some weird argument where the income rise exists in a bubble where nothing else changes maybe you’d have a point, but that would quite clearly not be the case.

Offline Crumble

  • It's rhyming slang
  • Kopite
  • *****
  • Posts: 792
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #52 on: July 15, 2020, 09:26:42 pm »
No new value is being produced. You have more money chasing the same number of products.

That's different. You have more products and the same amount of money. That will drive prices down. If you increase the money supply prices will go up.

One of the great things about UBI is that if it is sufficient for people to survive on, it will be practical to abolish the minimum wage. All kinds of experimental small businesses will flourish if willing and enthusiastic workers can be employed for a pittance.

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #53 on: July 15, 2020, 10:34:24 pm »
But that's my point, it will only drive prices up if there isn't competition. The grocery market for example, which was what was mentioned earlier, is very competitive with tiny margins.

As I said earlier it will also help with competition, because if you have a market with no competition and price gouging going on, with UBI you are going to have a lot of people suddenly able to introduce competition by starting their own businesses. UBI gives them the economic security to start their own businesses much easier.

I disagree. If everyone gets a sum of money, nothing has changed. You are right if prices stay the same. Then you'd gain something. You'd be able to save/spend the extra money. I believe that would be a very temporary thing.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline TepidT2O

  • Deffo NOT 9"! MUFC bedwetter. Grass. Folically-challenged, God-piece-wearing, monkey-rubber. Jizz aroma expert. Operating at the lower end of the distribution curve...has the hots for Alan. Bastard. Fearless in transfer windows with lack of convicti
  • Lead Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 94,021
  • Dejan Lovren fan club member #1
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #54 on: July 15, 2020, 10:40:43 pm »
One of the great things about UBI is that if it is sufficient for people to survive on, it will be practical to abolish the minimum wage. All kinds of experimental small businesses will flourish if willing and enthusiastic workers can be employed for a pittance.
Well, no, I simply don’t agree.

Firstly, a universal basic income would require an exceptionally high basic rate of income tax to support it.

Secondly, it still doesn’t close the disadvantage gap for people who need care, are disabled, or who come from families without assets (ie not home owners). So, you would still need benefits to address these, so I would have to ask who it’s a a really helping.

Thirdly, you could employ people for a pittance? Well that’s nonsense, you should pay people a fair wage for the job. Are you are suggesting that they don’t.  You say start ups would do this... why wouldn’t bigger companies?  I suggest that they would most aggressively.

Fourthly, if people could afford to take a job on a pittance, they could afford not to bother to work.  There’s a real risk people would just not bother (would want to see conclusive evidence that this wasn’t the case.)

Fithly, you are suggesting scrapping the basic wage.  You have in essence shifted the burden of paying staff from the companies to the tax payers.

Why should tax payers pay for people to work?

It’s a terrible idea.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 10:42:24 pm by Tepid T₂O »
“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
W

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #55 on: July 15, 2020, 10:51:42 pm »
Why would there be the same number of products? I mean if you want to make some weird argument where the income rise exists in a bubble where nothing else changes maybe you’d have a point, but that would quite clearly not be the case.

Why would more things be produced if we all get an additional sum of money? No value has been created. Nothing has been transformed.

If you step out of that bubble, what happens? Let's say Sweden introduced UBI and gave everyone a lot of SEK. What do you think happens when I want to exchange that money into USD or Pounds? The value of the SEK is likely to decrease. My purchasing power in the UK wouldn't change.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #56 on: July 15, 2020, 11:02:54 pm »

Firstly, a universal basic income would require an exceptionally high basic rate of income tax to support it.


Yes.

There is a possibility the government could borrow the money and give to the people. The problem then would be that someone would have to buy that debt. The question is, if you give the government 100 today and you will be paid something back in say 2030, how much? How much is 100 in today's money worth in 2030? I know how much you'd get. 100. Because interest rates are at 0. It's a lousy deal. So who'd buy it? Your pension funds. That would be a hidden tax and it would hurt you badly when you are about to retire.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline Buggy Eyes Alfredo

  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,482
  • ¤Ginger◇Drapes¤
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #57 on: July 16, 2020, 12:19:07 am »

Now, Stockton’s first Black mayor, and, at 29, its youngest, Michael Tubbs, is leading a push to expand the idea with a new initiative, Mayors for a Guaranteed Income. Mayors from across the country — including Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles, Aja Brown of Compton and Libby Schaaf of Oakland — have signed on.

Earlier this week, I talked with Mr. Tubbs about the effort and about Stockton right now. Here’s our conversation, lightly edited and condensed:

Tell me about how Mayors for Guaranteed Income builds on what’s already happening in Stockton.


We found that over the last 18 months, as we’ve been piloting in Stockton, so many cities have reached out, wanting to do something like this for their constituents.

Something this important and fundamental has to be at the federal level, but oftentimes, the federal government needs test cases.

Then, during Covid-19, I spent a lot of energy ensuring that the folks in our pilot would have their program be extended at least to January. We were able to do that thanks to a grant.

But then the George Floyd civil unrest happened. I reread the section of “Where Do We Go From Here?” Dr. King’s last book, about guaranteed income. I was fascinated because I realized he wrote that book in a context very similar to this one, where there was civil unrest in every city. Folks were angry and protesting the structural racism and violence in society.

And so I said, “Let me reach out to some mayors I know and see if they will join with me in creating a network, saying we need to do pilots in our cities, but we also need a federal policy that speaks to economic insecurity.” So that’s what I did.

What’s been the most surprising thing about the program?

I wish I had known just how emotional some of the stories would make me.

Stories of people who have jobs, people who, on the surface, everything looks good, but something as small as $500 has been the difference between eviction and homelessness and being housed, or being able to take time off to interview for a better job.

And a lot of them have told our researchers that this is the first time they’ve been seen. I was unprepared for the level of people struggling.

What do you see as the biggest challenge to scaling up?

The past couple months you have Covid-19, which showcased how fragile our economy is, where we literally today have essential workers who are putting their health and lives on the line, who still cannot afford rent and are still standing in food banks after work.

You have civil unrest with the George Floyd murder, and people are demanding a change.

I think the hardest part is probably mustering the political will, but if we can’t summon the political will now, at the time when we’re entering into a Great Depression, at a time where we’re at levels of inequality not seen since the Gilded Age, it’s a time of civil unrest.

If we can’t muster the political will to act now, then we have a deeper problem of values and ability to act in our society.

I know that the George Floyd protests were tricky for progressive mayors and you recently talked to my colleagues about navigating that. But since then, calls have turned more explicitly to defunding or dismantling police departments. Do you support defunding the Stockton Police Department, or is that something you’re looking into?

We know that crime correlates with poverty, and things like mental illness can be exacerbated by poverty. So one way we get to a society where we don’t need as many officers is to abolish poverty. I think guaranteed income is a step in that direction.

Ideally, we’d love to live in a world without crime, but as long as there’s crime there will be a need for officers.

In Stockton’s context, because of the bankruptcy, we decimated our police force by about 30 percent about a decade ago. And twice in the last decade our citizens have voted to tax themselves more to pay for officers.

What we’ve been doing in Stockton is really looking at the role of police. Like other cities, we’ll be doing an analysis of 911 calls to see which are calls that don’t need an officer.

What do you think is the biggest misconception about guaranteed income programs?

The biggest misconception I hear is that it rewards people for not working. That’s such a racist trope and it’s not true. The second big misconception I’ve heard is that we can’t afford it. But there are all these proposals now to do that.

So the question is: Do we trust our neighbors to spend money well? I would argue we should and we have to, given this crisis we face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/ubi-california.html

Offline TepidT2O

  • Deffo NOT 9"! MUFC bedwetter. Grass. Folically-challenged, God-piece-wearing, monkey-rubber. Jizz aroma expert. Operating at the lower end of the distribution curve...has the hots for Alan. Bastard. Fearless in transfer windows with lack of convicti
  • Lead Matchday Commentator
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 94,021
  • Dejan Lovren fan club member #1
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #58 on: July 16, 2020, 08:17:30 am »
^ In a well run economy,  country a provision for UBI / UBI in another form is just an allocation of resources, you don't have to increase taxes if you can just reallocate defence spending.  I take the point about the current state of affairs: the answer to that is better husbandry not the complete abandonment of striving to show human quality.

Lest we forget,  a world where you pay for everything from water to good quality air (in places with such bad pollution)  is completely unnatural. People talk about a work routine as if it's a natural thing,  it is not.  This isn't an attempt to excuse laziness,  it's just logic

UBI / a version of it is the only way you can look another guy in the eye and be confident you're not lying when you say people are a community. Way overdue.


The maths here just doesn’t work.

Define spending is about £35bn a year.

Divide that up amongst the whole U.K. and  you’re talking about a basic income of £500 a year.
“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
W

Offline Lusty

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,302
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #59 on: July 16, 2020, 09:19:11 am »
UBI is a weird one.  It's gone back and forth over the decades between a right wing idea and a left wing idea.  A lot of people on the left who support it these days would have been opposing it back in the days when Richard Nixon was behind it.

I get the arguments for and against, but for me both sides are just speculating.  It might lead to more people getting out of the benefits trap and back to work, it might cause hyper inflation.  It seems to me to be the most obvious candidate for evidence based policy making.  Forget left versus right, if it can be demonstrated to work then it's a good idea and if it can't then it isn't.

So it's good to see more money coming in for trials, although from what I gather the trials that have already taken place haven't been encouraging.

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,403
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #60 on: July 16, 2020, 09:22:25 am »
The maths here just doesn’t work.

Define spending is about £35bn a year.

Divide that up amongst the whole U.K. and  you’re talking about a basic income of £500 a year.

No offense Tepid but UBI would be so tranformative to the economy that I can't believe any laymen trying to claim definitively one way or another whether or not it would be affordable. I've read convincing arguments on both sides from arguments.

Reducing it down to basic household level economics is absurd.

As Lusty says, there needs to be more research done with proper trials.

Offline Zeb

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 18,571
  • Justice.
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #61 on: July 16, 2020, 09:37:04 am »
From IGP's study into it, which lead to Portes et al proposing basic services.

Quote
A UBI paid to all UK citizens at the current modest Jobseekers Allowance level of £73.10 per week would cost just under £250bn per year - around 13% of total GDP, or 31% of all current UK public spending.

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/igp/news/2017/oct/igps-social-prosperity-network-publishes-uks-first-report-universal-basic-services

I don't think that'd be transformative of much of anything. Especially as no money is going into creating any infrastructure to support the hypothetical entrepreneurs on JSA levels of income.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,403
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #62 on: July 16, 2020, 09:42:02 am »
From IGP's study into it, which lead to Portes et al proposing basic services.

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/igp/news/2017/oct/igps-social-prosperity-network-publishes-uks-first-report-universal-basic-services

I don't think that'd be transformative of much of anything. Especially as no money is going into creating any infrastructure to support the hypothetical entrepreneurs on JSA levels of income.

Sorry what I mean by transformative is that there are so many variables at play, every different form of taxation and spending would be affected. Peoples behaviour will change in ways we can't properly predict.

Boiling it down to dividing up current spending equally amongst the population is way too reductive.

Offline Zeb

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 18,571
  • Justice.
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #63 on: July 16, 2020, 09:49:16 am »
Sorry what I mean by transformative is that there are so many variables at play, every different form of taxation and spending would be affected. Peoples behaviour will change in ways we can't properly predict.

Boiling it down to dividing up current spending equally amongst the population is way too reductive.

The Finnish experiment was interesting. One thing UBI definitely does do, if at a high enough level, is reduce people's stress. Doesn't really do much in terms of work etc. though if that was any guide. Everything seems a bit underpants gnomes to it where there's a mysterious thing which happens leading to a brand new society rather than just entrenching things already present in the existing one. Am open to it but does need better evidence base, and if we're looking at evidence why not focus efforts on things which we know can work and can be transformative?
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline filopastry

  • seldom posts but often delivers
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,773
  • Let me tell you a story.........
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #64 on: July 16, 2020, 09:57:15 am »
If we ever get to a stage where automation is leaving mass unemployment a long term reality, its an idea that may make sense, until then the numbers just don't work.

Online west_london_red

  • Knows his stuff - pull the udder one! RAWK's Dairy Queen.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,834
  • watching me? but whose watching you watching me?
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #65 on: July 16, 2020, 10:33:56 am »
But that's my point, it will only drive prices up if there isn't competition. The grocery market for example, which was what was mentioned earlier, is very competitive with tiny margins.

As I said earlier it will also help with competition, because if you have a market with no competition and price gouging going on, with UBI you are going to have a lot of people suddenly able to introduce competition by starting their own businesses. UBI gives them the economic security to start their own businesses much easier.

I think the main thing your missing here is the labour element, supply and demand for labour doesn’t follow other commodities in a straight line, you get the backwards bending demand curve effect after a while just based on increasing wages, add in a UBI and that will create the same effect, people will work less because they don’t need to work so hard/long and then employers have to pay people more to continue to work, and that creates inflation.
Thinking is overrated.
The mind is a tool, it's not meant to be used that much.
Rest, love, observe. Laugh.

Online Elmo!

  • Spolier alret!
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,403
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #66 on: July 16, 2020, 10:45:53 am »
I think the main thing your missing here is the labour element, supply and demand for labour doesn’t follow other commodities in a straight line, you get the backwards bending demand curve effect after a while just based on increasing wages, add in a UBI and that will create the same effect, people will work less because they don’t need to work so hard/long and then employers have to pay people more to continue to work, and that creates inflation.

Yes I was actually just thinking of that a minute ago.

That could indeed be the case, but I was just making the point that just having the extra money in peoples pockets does not in itself automatically mean prices will go up.

I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing either, moving towards a higher pay and higher tax economy. I guess it could lead to a sort of feedback loop where rising prices due to higher wages leads to the UBI payments not being enough any more, so that is raised, which causes more price rises and the UBI to become too little again, and so on.

Also, taking food as an example, only a portion of the costs of food is attributable to the wages of people in the food industry in the UK, especially as we import most of our food, so I would have thought the benefits of the increased wages for those people would outweigh the negatives of the effect on prices?

Disclaimer that I am not an economist or even that well read on the subject.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

  • Batshit fucker and Chief Yuletide Porcine Voyeur
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,996
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #67 on: July 16, 2020, 11:01:41 am »
The maths here just doesn’t work.

Define spending is about £35bn a year.

Divide that up amongst the whole U.K. and  you’re talking about a basic income of £500 a year.
38Bn in 2019, and it represents about 2% of GDP. And I would expect UBI to go only to adults. The adult population is about 53M (the whole budget works out to be 717UKP per UK adult). So, although the defense budget might be finessed - I agree, it is obviously not the solution.

In the new paradigm under discussion, the market would look very different. It is the assumed levels of automation (and AI) which will drive the necessary changes to income distribution, but it will be a very large part of the solution too. The point is that automation (and AI) makes the provision of goods and services much cheaper. I think people are too locked into thinking: where will all the tax revenue come from with few people working to pay for UBI? In reality, the taxation landscape will be completely changed.

I expect that employment will remain fairly high, because the majority of people will demand it. But their hours will drop to compensate. They might well pay higher rates of tax than now, but this will be offset (for the lower- and middle-paid) by UBI. Those in very well-paid professions might be hit hardest, but only compared with the present. But I expect that the greater proportion of tax would be generated by industry (a huge hike compered with now). Hourly pay rates, and income from employment will be largely market driven - it will find its own level, and because of UBI, the worker will be protected from forced, unethical exploitation.

If we look at this in the round, we will have - as a society - skyrocketing productivity and output due to automation; society as whole will be richer. So, the problem is only one of how redistribution of wealth will occur. I suspect that the solutions will appear more obvious then than they do to us now. And these solutions will become absolutely necessary, as without effective means to redistribute wealth, society cannot function (and there would be too small a pool of people able to afford all these cheaply manufactured products).

UBI is not the be all and end all. Of course there would need to be systems in place to support those with significantly elevated needs (and costs). This could be extra money to pay for services, or by the provision of services for free. But in the main, UBI will cover those who do not work for whatever reason, and provide base for those who do work.

I come back to my main point: if we have the ability to produce more goods and provide more services (via AI) more easily and at lower cost, there is no intrinsic problem (beyond raw materials and energy). The only potential problem is how we rejig redistribution of wealth. That problem is only as large as we make it.

I do have a question though: what do we do about children? I think it would be a mistake to incentivise having greater numbers of children by providing child-UBI. My concern is environmental: overcrowding, food, water, energy, climate change. So, what happens if 'quiver full' parents do not have enough income to care for their large hoard of children? That's where it gets tricky for me. But I think this is a problem we will be forced to address anyway in the forthcoming decades as resources (and space) become evermore stretched.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

  • Batshit fucker and Chief Yuletide Porcine Voyeur
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,996
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #68 on: July 16, 2020, 11:03:12 am »
Sorry what I mean by transformative is that there are so many variables at play, every different form of taxation and spending would be affected. Peoples behaviour will change in ways we can't properly predict.

Boiling it down to dividing up current spending equally amongst the population is way too reductive.
Exactly.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

  • Batshit fucker and Chief Yuletide Porcine Voyeur
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,996
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #69 on: July 16, 2020, 11:04:41 am »
If we ever get to a stage where automation is leaving mass unemployment a long term reality, its an idea that may make sense, until then the numbers just don't work.
I tend to agree with that. But it is something we should be seriously considering now.
would rather have a wank wearing a barb wire glove
If you're chasing thrills, try a bit of auto-asphyxiation with a poppers-soaked orange in your gob.

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #70 on: July 16, 2020, 11:53:29 am »
AI will change things, no doubt, but we will adapt. Societies have gone through changes before. What we get is for example a change when everyone was growing their own food and then we get a more efficient way to produce it. Fewer people worked with food, but then we got jobs in factories. So everyone did that. Then we came up with better ways to produce. Fewer people worked in typical factory floor jobs. What happened? We got lots and lots of service jobs. Introduce AI. Do we expect we can't adapt again? I believe we will adapt, but we can't see how just yet.

When we think of AI, I believe we can compare with going back to 1990, thinking nobody needs a mobile phone. People didn't know or care about the Internet and nobody expected people to need a mobile phone. Partly because nobody had one, so you could only call people on their home number anyway. And the phones weighed a lot and were extremely expensive. Who would want to use that? Maybe a surgeon on duty had a need for it. Who else? Society changed, we adapted. We can't predict all that follows with AI and we shouldn't introduce UBI because of our guesses now.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline CraigDS

  • Lite. Smelt it and dealt it. Worrawhopper.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 61,469
  • YNWA
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #71 on: July 16, 2020, 11:56:38 am »
I mean you completely ignore that UBI could be the adaption there.

Rather than another adaption for people to work more and more it could be a shift to working less. A less stressful existence. One not to work to put food on the table.

Offline Sudden Death Draft Loser

  • old and annoying
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,483
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #72 on: July 16, 2020, 11:59:46 am »
"The greatest argument against democracy is to have a five minute conversation  with the average voter. "

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #73 on: July 16, 2020, 12:00:01 pm »
I mean you completely ignore that UBI could be the adaption there.

Correct. It could be. We are not there yet. That's key. 


        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Online The North Bank

  • Can even make the sun shine in Manchester - once in a blue moon...
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 22,480
  • We all Live in a Red and White Kop
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #74 on: July 16, 2020, 12:11:35 pm »
I wish we had it here now instead of furlough schemes that excludes millions of tax payers.

Offline Gnurglan

  • The Swedish Savaloy
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 35,539
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #75 on: July 16, 2020, 12:17:43 pm »
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/you-re-not-just-imagining-it-your-job-is-absolute-bs?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB&fbclid=IwAR1_n40mXypChbq0GNNpOMZYrpno8IddZ4dyqb65qiPYkPhRn1fyyiEwkiE

Sure, I think we can all understand meaningless tasks. I find parts of my job being absolute nonsense. Customers and the owners of the business think otherwise. For them it's important so they pay me money to do it. If I stop doing it, they will fire me and find someone else to do it. If they no longer see value in the work, they will say stop doing it.

But here's a different take on it. A friend of mine works for a phone service company. Basic job, intro job for many. You get information about what to say when someone calls. So all of a sudden we have the virus crisis. Everyone needs information. They supply it. Their business is booming. Boring intro job, seen as unimportant but it's not. Someone is willing to pay for that service too. If people didn't, there would be no business.

        * * * * * *


"The key isn't the system itself, but how the players adapt on the pitch. It doesn't matter if it's 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, it's the role of the players that counts." Rafa Benitez

Offline Zeb

  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 18,571
  • Justice.
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #76 on: July 16, 2020, 12:21:39 pm »
Part to it I don't quite understand is the philosophical one where 'and much good happens'. To my mind, the more realistic scenario is likely to be a race to the bottom in employment practices and wages as corporations seek to reduce costs. Effectively you end up with a system of insecure employment (beyond current levels) paid at a pittance (it's bonus money to your UBI) while UBI ends up funded by regressive taxes (eg VAT) and those who won whichever 'revolution' is seen as the giant leap forward make bank. Less a brave new world (although free pills and mandated orgyporgy and we're on our way I guess) and more making it easier to push forward in the direction things are already heading. That seems unhelpful if you're coming to it from the left, although thoroughly understandable for the tech billionaires who've been promoting it.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline Sudden Death Draft Loser

  • old and annoying
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,483
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #77 on: July 16, 2020, 12:25:05 pm »
Buckminster Fuller Rails Against the “Nonsense of Earning a Living”: Why Work Useless Jobs When Technology & Automation Can Let Us Live More Meaningful Lives

Quote
But let’s assume there are other ways to order our priorities, such as valuing human life as an end in itself. Perhaps then we could treat the threat of automation as a ghost: insubstantial, immaterial, maybe scary but harmless. Or treat it as an opportunity to order our lives the way we want. We could stop inventing bullshit, low-paying, wasteful jobs that contribute to cycles of poverty and environmental degradation. We could slash the number of hours we work and spend time with people and pursuits we love.

Quote
We have been taught to think of this scenario as a fantasy. Or, as Buckminster Fuller declared in 1970—on the threshold of the “Malthusian-Darwinian” wave of neoliberal thought to come—“We keep inventing jobs because of this false idea that everybody has to be employed at some kind of drudgery…. He must justify his right to exist.” In current parlance, every person must somehow “add value” to shareholders’ portfolios. The shareholders themselves are under no obligation to return the favor.

http://www.openculture.com/2019/03/buckminster-fuller-on-technology-and-useless-jobs.html
"The greatest argument against democracy is to have a five minute conversation  with the average voter. "

Offline CraigDS

  • Lite. Smelt it and dealt it. Worrawhopper.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 61,469
  • YNWA
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #78 on: July 16, 2020, 12:27:07 pm »
I’m not sure UBI means the abolition of employment laws & rights to create an environment to allow a race to the bottom in employment practices.

Similarly I’m not sure there would be a race to the bottom wage wise. Some would decide not to work, others would decide to work less hours, and it would mean the worker pool may be less than currently - so no over supply for employers to take advantage of. Also, if the level of disposable income goes up then you’d likely see an increased demand for products, and therefore an increased demand for employees, and again this doesn’t allow for a race to the bottom wage wise.

Online west_london_red

  • Knows his stuff - pull the udder one! RAWK's Dairy Queen.
  • RAWK Supporter
  • Legacy Fan
  • ******
  • Posts: 21,834
  • watching me? but whose watching you watching me?
Re: Universal Basic Income
« Reply #79 on: July 16, 2020, 12:27:41 pm »
Yes I was actually just thinking of that a minute ago.

That could indeed be the case, but I was just making the point that just having the extra money in peoples pockets does not in itself automatically mean prices will go up.

I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing either, moving towards a higher pay and higher tax economy. I guess it could lead to a sort of feedback loop where rising prices due to higher wages leads to the UBI payments not being enough any more, so that is raised, which causes more price rises and the UBI to become too little again, and so on.

Also, taking food as an example, only a portion of the costs of food is attributable to the wages of people in the food industry in the UK, especially as we import most of our food, so I would have thought the benefits of the increased wages for those people would outweigh the negatives of the effect on prices?

Disclaimer that I am not an economist or even that well read on the subject.

If pay goes up but then so does inflation so pay hasn’t actually gone up, and then you find foreign food is relatively even cheaper so those working in the sector find themselves no longer required.

I studied economics up to A levels so have some knowledge, but at the same time I was taught by someone who was very clearly a right winger, pro-supply side economics so not sure if that clouds my judgement but I can’t see how a UBI can work.
Thinking is overrated.
The mind is a tool, it's not meant to be used that much.
Rest, love, observe. Laugh.