Some massive fixtures.
Bulgaria-France is a really interesting one. On paper, it looks like France should win the group (France 17, Sweden 16, Netherlands 13, Bulgaria 12). Sweden-Netherlands is in the final round of fixtures and could be for 2nd place (France plays Belarus in that round).
However, history does not favor France against Bulgaria. Of course, much of this is irrelevant to the current squad as the fixtures took place a long time ago, but in the 9 times France has played in Bulgaria, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 7 defeats.
Also, for the 1994 World Cup Qualification, France had both Sweden and Bulgaria in their group. France were in first place with 2 matches to go, with home matches against Israel (winless in 8 matches) and Bulgaria (in 3rd) to play. Against Israel, France were 2-1 up with 10 minutes to go but inexplicably lost 3-2. Sweden pulled level with France on points, but top 2 teams advance, so France were still fine despite a bad defeat. They needed to avoid a loss against Bulgaria at home in the final match to qualify. France took the lead, but Bulgaria leveled the match and then scored the winner in stoppage time. France were eliminated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA_–_Group_6)
The France of today should have no problems, and they have incredible talent. However, if history is any indication, the French often struggle with team chemistry, and they've had some bad memories of playing in Bulgaria and qualifying from the same group as Bulgaria and Sweden.
That 0-0 draw against Luxembourg may just be a blip (France had just beaten the Netherlands 4-0), but it could also come back to haunt the French.
In Group B, Switzerland are 3 points ahead of Portugal but they play in Portugal on the final match day, so it's likely to come down to that match for the auto qualifying spot.
Group D (Serbia 18, Wales 14, Ireland 13) is an incredible group as the top three teams have combined for just 1 defeat. But Serbia's two second half equalisers against Wales leave them in a bit of bother. Wales is currently the 9th second place side, and could miss out on the playoffs even if they do finish second. Wales play Ireland on the final day but have a tricky trip to Georgia before. For Euro 2008, Scotland had a great run in qualification despite being in the same group as Italy and France. They even beat France home and away. Before their win-or-bust encounter with Italy, Scotland fell to a 2-0 defeat at Georgia. Can't overlook that trip.
Group E has Poland leading the way, but Montenegro and Denmark are each 3 points behind and have identical points and GD. They play each other in the first match before Poland-Montenegro on the final day. That could be an exciting finish to the group.
In Group F, Slovakia (15), Slovenia (14), and Scotland (14) are vying for second. Good news for the Scots is that they play both teams, so they control their own destiny for a playoff spot (provided they're not the worst 2nd place team).
Group I is a mess (Croatia 16, Iceland 16, Turkey 14, Ukraine 14).
Conmebol qualifying is also incredibly exciting. Peru are on fire, but they have to travel to Argentina, who are in dire straits. 16 goals in 16 matches from Argentina. A country that can call on the likes of Messi, Aguero, Dybala, Icardi, Correa, etc have managed to average the same number of goals as a relegation-fighting side. Chile, the winners of two straight Copa Americas, are 6th and are on the outside looking in. Just 7 points separate second from seventh.
And then you also have Syria-Australia in the Asia playoff for the intercontinental playoffs. Winner plays the Concacaf 4th place team, which could be the United States as they try to salvage a shit campaign against Panama and Trinidad & Tobago.
CAF group stage is winding down with 2 more matches remaining for everyone (except Senegal and South Africa). Pretty much every group is still too close to call.
As always, with all the excitement, no injuries to Liverpool players please.
