Poll

How do we think the UK Will do - Assuming Brexit happens (Hard or Soft..)

Things will be brilliant from the word go and will get better every week!
Things will start off a bit dodgy, but over time things gradually improve and get better
Things will start off dodgy and remain that way for the forseeable future
Things will start off dodgy and then decline slightly with things getting a bit worse
Complete clusterfuck from start to finish

Author Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)  (Read 866172 times)

Offline GinKop

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #40 on: October 5, 2016, 09:17:05 am »
I honestly can't think of anything coherent to say on that Times headline, other than it's appalling. Completely fucked up, British-supremacist bullshit.

Makes me sick to my stomach.

They want to retain a global outlook yet are doing the complete opposite with their stance on Doctors and students.
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Offline G1 Jockey 4(betfair)

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #41 on: October 5, 2016, 09:27:26 am »
But most UK small companies don't do business with the EU, so even if tariffs were applied (which they won't be - see recent comments from the heads of the German Chamber of Commerce and the German equivalent of the CBI), there will be very little effect on small businesses - apart from the welcome removal of EU red tape of course

they will though.

most shops will have good which would have been imported.

from food to clothes.

people who make things will have plenty of stuff imported at some point of the process....maybe not through them directly.

so with tarrifs things will be different to now and the fall of the pound...ie.tarrifs
« Last Edit: October 5, 2016, 09:29:29 am by G1 Jockey 4(betfair) »
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #42 on: October 5, 2016, 09:39:55 am »
Here's a question for someone a little smarter:

The currency has fallen by about 15% (give or take). WTO tarrifs are about 10%. Wouldn't it be better value for people like Nissan etc to stay on that basis? We'd always have to devalue the currency though. That would certainly piss Europe off and hopefully allow a deal?

I'd just like to add that I'm appaled by Brexit (seems weird that you have to justify this), but I'm thinking of how we will not fall into an almighty abyss.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #43 on: October 5, 2016, 09:53:06 am »
Here's a question for someone a little smarter:

The currency has fallen by about 15% (give or take). WTO tarrifs are about 10%. Wouldn't it be better value for people like Nissan etc to stay on that basis? We'd always have to devalue the currency though. That would certainly piss Europe off and hopefully allow a deal?

I'd just like to add that I'm appaled by Brexit (seems weird that you have to justify this), but I'm thinking of how we will not fall into an almighty abyss.

Let's do some rough sums ... Nissan would have to import lots of parts and raw materials. These would be 15% more expensive because of the weak pound and 10% more because of tariffs, say 25% total. Parts are less than 50% of the cost of the car, so lets say the car in total costs 10% more to make.

So on these assumptions, cars sold in UK would cost 10% more.
Cars sold in the rest of the world would have 10% tariff added, total 20% more ... but the 15% exchange rate advantage reduces this to only a 5% hit.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #44 on: October 5, 2016, 11:40:18 am »
Let's do some rough sums ... Nissan would have to import lots of parts and raw materials. These would be 15% more expensive because of the weak pound and 10% more because of tariffs, say 25% total. Parts are less than 50% of the cost of the car, so lets say the car in total costs 10% more to make.

So on these assumptions, cars sold in UK would cost 10% more.
Cars sold in the rest of the world would have 10% tariff added, total 20% more ... but the 15% exchange rate advantage reduces this to only a 5% hit.

The 10% tariff plus 15% fall in the pound also applies to cars coming into this country from say Germany and France, so those cars become a lot more expensive to import into the UK. This is probably the UKs strongest bargaining chip with the EU, especially as it affects Germany more then any other EU member due to the number of German cars we buy and that fact that they are pretty much all made in Germany.

Also, when you say "Cars sold in the rest of the world" new tariffs would only apply to the EU I assume, any cars sold to other countries would just pay the same tariffs they pay now so would potentially be cheaper due to the fall in the pound?
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #45 on: October 5, 2016, 12:04:05 pm »
The pound falling is also inflationary. Wages may be instantaneously 15% cheaper in Euro terms, but the stuff that British workers want has also increased in price by 15%. Productivity gains made by currency devaluation rapidly become swallowed up by wage increases. There will be a lag, but wages will follow the prices upward trajectory. 

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #46 on: October 5, 2016, 01:59:37 pm »
Also, when you say "Cars sold in the rest of the world" new tariffs would only apply to the EU I assume, any cars sold to other countries would just pay the same tariffs they pay now so would potentially be cheaper due to the fall in the pound?
I guess so, assuming the UK joins the WTO under the same terms it currently gets as member of the EU. Until wage inflation kicks in, anyway.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #47 on: October 5, 2016, 02:45:39 pm »
The 10% tariff plus 15% fall in the pound also applies to cars coming into this country from say Germany and France, so those cars become a lot more expensive to import into the UK. This is probably the UKs strongest bargaining chip with the EU, especially as it affects Germany more then any other EU member due to the number of German cars we buy and that fact that they are pretty much all made in Germany.

Also, when you say "Cars sold in the rest of the world" new tariffs would only apply to the EU I assume, any cars sold to other countries would just pay the same tariffs they pay now so would potentially be cheaper due to the fall in the pound?

You may well be right but I wouldn't assume this is the case. we know all our trade deals with countrys outside the EU will end when we leave the EU as all those deals only applied to EU members.
So I think we can take it for granted those deals were beneficial to the UK, therefore the reverse must be true. UK company's will be in a far worse position to trade with non EU country's when we leave the EU. I would assume that means Tariffs. etc.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #48 on: October 5, 2016, 02:51:09 pm »
You may well be right but I wouldn't assume this is the case. we know all our trade deals with countrys outside the EU will end when we leave the EU as all those deals only applied to EU members.
So I think we can take it for granted those deals were beneficial to the UK, therefore the reverse must be true. UK company's will be in a far worse position to trade with non EU country's when we leave the EU. I would assume that means Tariffs. etc.

True, but how many of these deals are there? If the Leave campaign was anything to go by (yes I know....) there wasn't many but no idea what the truth is.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #49 on: October 5, 2016, 03:07:56 pm »
True, but how many of these deals are there? If the Leave campaign was anything to go by (yes I know....) there wasn't many but no idea what the truth is.
We have to make new deals with at least 70 major countrys. we will be lucky to make 2 or 3 inside 5yrs.the realty is we are looking at decades of negotiations.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
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Offline G1 Jockey 4(betfair)

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #50 on: October 5, 2016, 07:47:24 pm »
The 10% tariff plus 15% fall in the pound also applies to cars coming into this country from say Germany and France, so those cars become a lot more expensive to import into the UK. This is probably the UKs strongest bargaining chip with the EU, especially as it affects Germany more then any other EU member due to the number of German cars we buy and that fact that they are pretty much all made in Germany.

Also, when you say "Cars sold in the rest of the world" new tariffs would only apply to the EU I assume, any cars sold to other countries would just pay the same tariffs they pay now so would potentially be cheaper due to the fall in the pound?

if your applying that to one product it skews the argument.

you have to take into account that german exports roughly 9% of its overall exports to us.
think france is 10%.

at the moment we export about 44-47% of our goods to the eu.

they are in a far stronger bargaining position.
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Offline AaronSingh25

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #51 on: October 6, 2016, 01:48:08 am »


Has to be one of the most disgusting news peices i've read in a long time - if true.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #52 on: October 6, 2016, 10:32:27 am »
Has to be one of the most disgusting news peices i've read in a long time - if true.

From James O'Brien yesterday: http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-amber-rudds-speech-echoes-mein-kampf/

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #53 on: October 7, 2016, 03:45:24 pm »


So Brexit mean bankruptcy - both moral and financial, judged purely on the rhetoric emanating from the Ukip...Sorry, I mean Tory conference. 
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #54 on: October 10, 2016, 10:37:40 pm »
Brexit could cost 9% of GDP...
Ł66bn a year.....

That's the times headline.

Well, that will certianly solve the immigration 'problem'...
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #55 on: October 10, 2016, 10:52:42 pm »
Brexit could cost 9% of GDP...
Ł66bn a year.....

That's the times headline.

Well, that will certianly solve the immigration 'problem'...

But the Tories want to build a new royal yacht, and that's going to win us billions in new trade.
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #56 on: October 11, 2016, 02:49:17 am »
Brexit could cost 9% of GDP...
Ł66bn a year.....

That's the times headline.

Well, that will certianly solve the immigration 'problem'...



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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #57 on: October 11, 2016, 10:51:02 am »
Its very annoying how using buzzwords like "hard" and "soft" Brexit has now changed the narrative.

Rather than fighting for no Brexit at all, the majority of remainers are now fighting for a "soft" Brexit.

Whether this was a ploy by May and her cronies to shift the debate that way I don't know, but rather than pushing for a parliamentary vote on whether to trigger Article 50, we are now  seeing a push for a vote on the details.

Hopefully, the upcoming legal challanges will bear fruit or at least delay and hinder the process long enough for the debate to swing back towards the original position.

Any kind of Brexit will be a disaster regardless of the adjective attached to it.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #58 on: October 11, 2016, 11:13:02 am »
Its very annoying how using buzzwords like "hard" and "soft" Brexit has now changed the narrative.

Rather than fighting for no Brexit at all, the majority of remainers are now fighting for a "soft" Brexit.

Whether this was a ploy by May and her cronies to shift the debate that way I don't know, but rather than pushing for a parliamentary vote on whether to trigger Article 50, we are now  seeing a push for a vote on the details.

Hopefully, the upcoming legal challanges will bear fruit or at least delay and hinder the process long enough for the debate to swing back towards the original position.

Any kind of Brexit will be a disaster regardless of the adjective attached to it.

Much though I oppose Brexit myself, I don't see anyway of avoiding it without a very significant move in public opinion.

It would be political suicide for MPs in much of the country to be actively opposing Brexit itself at present

Offline G1 Jockey 4(betfair)

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #59 on: October 11, 2016, 11:25:56 am »
the one good thing about this is the tories could do irreversible damage to their party if the economy goes wrong after brexit. 

they took a gamble on using brexit as a vote winner and now need their rag to win the race.
placed at best at long odds.

or they are broke.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #60 on: October 11, 2016, 11:44:44 am »
From the Guardians Politics Live Blog today:

Mark Harper, the Conservative former disabilities minister and former chief whip, says in an article in the Times (paywall) that the disabled could take some of the jobs currently done by EU migrants.

If we want to properly control immigration we must take this opportunity to end free movement of people from the EU to the UK. Yet when employment is at a historic high, and unemployment at its lowest levels in a decade, businesses are understandably concerned about placing constraints on the number of workers entering the labour market.

One way to increase the labour supply, while still reducing immigration, is to provide more opportunities for British disabled people who want to work but don’t get the chance ...

There are significant numbers of disabled people who are capable of working, would like to work, but have some sort of barrier or difficulty that makes it harder to get a job. Helping them move into work will require more effort and imagination from businesses, together with some support from government. This help, both financial and practical, perhaps through existing schemes such as Access to Work, is surely a worthwhile investment.

Helping British disabled people who want to work to get jobs, expanding our domestic labour market, and controlling immigration, would be a great first step in delivering a successful Brexit and a country which really does work for everyone.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #61 on: October 11, 2016, 11:51:31 am »
the one good thing about this is the tories could do irreversible damage to their party if the economy goes wrong after brexit. 

they took a gamble on using brexit as a vote winner and now need their rag to win the race.
placed at best at long odds.

or they are broke.

Unfortunately I'm not convinced they will get hurt as badly as you might normally expect.

They'll have their mates in the press to spin this, any downturn is largely going to get blamed on the unreasonable attitude of the EU to our reasonable requests (we all know its bollocks but people believe it)

Equally they'll be able to hide behind the public mandate which means they had to leave the EU, and spin these actions as being what the public rather than necessarily the government themselves want.

They will still take a hit when the economy slows, but it will be softened considerably I suspect.

There isn't any evidence that public opinion towards Brexit issue has softened any either, so any attempts to oppose Brexit will just be painted as undemocratic efforts to oppose the will of the people.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #62 on: October 11, 2016, 12:05:26 pm »
Unfortunately I'm not convinced they will get hurt as badly as you might normally expect.

They'll have their mates in the press to spin this, any downturn is largely going to get blamed on the unreasonable attitude of the EU to our reasonable requests (we all know its bollocks but people believe it)

Equally they'll be able to hide behind the public mandate which means they had to leave the EU, and spin these actions as being what the public rather than necessarily the government themselves want.

They will still take a hit when the economy slows, but it will be softened considerably I suspect.

There isn't any evidence that public opinion towards Brexit issue has softened any either, so any attempts to oppose Brexit will just be painted as undemocratic efforts to oppose the will of the people.

I dont agree. If the economy takes a significant hit then Tories will take the brunt of it. Tory papers like The Telegraph have been generally scathing and we havent even done anything yet.

The Tories are not a loved party and they are not bullet proof. Its all rosy at the moment under this rhetoric but when stuff in the shops start being more expensive, people are priced out of holidays and jobs go then guns will all be focussed on them.

There is a whole load of trouble waiting for the Tories. The only way they avoid that is if they somehow manage to get a deal that lets them control immigration and access the single market tariff free.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #63 on: October 11, 2016, 12:12:38 pm »
I dont agree. If the economy takes a significant hit then Tories will take the brunt of it. Tory papers like The Telegraph have been generally scathing and we havent even done anything yet.

The Tories are not a loved party and they are not bullet proof. Its all rosy at the moment under this rhetoric but when stuff in the shops start being more expensive, people are priced out of holidays and jobs go then guns will all be focussed on them.

There is a whole load of trouble waiting for the Tories. The only way they avoid that is if they somehow manage to get a deal that lets them control immigration and access the single market tariff free.

I'm not denying they'll take a hit but in the current political landscape I think its one they could absorb , they could hoover up UKIP votes, and while they will bleed some of their support from the business friendly/socially liberal part of the party, that isn't likely to go to the main opposition, maybe the LibDems can eventually benefit but its not as if they are likely to be in position to directly challenge the Tories in too many seats themselves.

The whole thing is an epic fuck-up but its probably manageable for them politically with a bit of savvy, they're more likely to get issues in parliament than they are with the general public at present, and they can go to the country and call a GE early if need be, although obviously they won't want to do that before the boundary changes are rolled out if they can possible.

The Tories are a bit of a mess at present but so is every other major political party in the UK.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #64 on: October 11, 2016, 12:30:12 pm »
I dont agree. If the economy takes a significant hit then Tories will take the brunt of it. Tory papers like The Telegraph have been generally scathing and we havent even done anything yet.

The Tories are not a loved party and they are not bullet proof. Its all rosy at the moment under this rhetoric but when stuff in the shops start being more expensive, people are priced out of holidays and jobs go then guns will all be focussed on them.

There is a whole load of trouble waiting for the Tories. The only way they avoid that is if they somehow manage to get a deal that lets them control immigration and access the single market tariff free.
Yes. the only way this will happen is a complete u turn by the EU, think the strong rhetpric by May right now is all aimed at trying to achieve this, it's not going to happen though, the EU know full well it's all empty threats. at the end of the day we have to trade with the EU, fact is they will dictate the terms not us.
I doubt if GDP figures or sums of Ł66 bill will change public opinion either. seems many people don't think these things affect them. some think the pound crashing is hilarious. won't affect them as these things only affect the traders etc.
The only way public opinion will change is when inflation kicks in and mortgage rates +prices of goods shoot up. theres no way welfare payments will keep up with this inflation. massive job losses with no hope of new company's investing in this country, problem it may be a bit late to change our minds by then.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 12:34:30 pm by oldfordie »
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #65 on: October 11, 2016, 12:37:01 pm »
The only way they avoid that is if they somehow manage to get a deal that lets them control immigration and access the single market tariff free.
And if they get that deal everyone else will be queueing up to leave on the same terms, ie EU mandarins, or should that be turkeys, voting for christmas, which in my opinion is why it will never happen.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #66 on: October 11, 2016, 12:57:47 pm »
I'm not denying they'll take a hit but in the current political landscape I think its one they could absorb , they could hoover up UKIP votes, and while they will bleed some of their support from the business friendly/socially liberal part of the party, that isn't likely to go to the main opposition, maybe the LibDems can eventually benefit but its not as if they are likely to be in position to directly challenge the Tories in too many seats themselves.

The whole thing is an epic fuck-up but its probably manageable for them politically with a bit of savvy, they're more likely to get issues in parliament than they are with the general public at present, and they can go to the country and call a GE early if need be, although obviously they won't want to do that before the boundary changes are rolled out if they can possible.

The Tories are a bit of a mess at present but so is every other major political party in the UK.

You are basing that on the current situation, not the potential situation in the future. They dominate the landscape at the moment but things can switch quickly and the old attachment to single parties seems to be dying out.

Its easy to be positive at the moment when there are a high number of people in employment (whatever contract that might be) and the lack of morale and jobs are isolated to government departments, NHS and old industrial towns. But when inflation goes up and jobs start going in financial services, car manufacturers and tech companies then lots of high employment areas and 'Blue' regions will take a hit.

The Tories currently have the most difficult job. Pretty much all the opinion polls have shown that the public want to have their cake and eat it in terms of single market, status quo access/living and controls on immigration. They are going to have to deliver.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 01:02:18 pm by killer_heels »

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #67 on: October 11, 2016, 01:01:28 pm »
And if they get that deal everyone else will be queueing up to leave on the same terms, ie EU mandarins, or should that be turkeys, voting for christmas, which in my opinion is why it will never happen.

Many of the opinion polls have illustrated that the public want to maintain access to the single market and their current day to day living/working/travelling arrangements whilst also having the ability to control immigration. The government have to deliver else they will feel the backlash.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #68 on: October 11, 2016, 01:10:27 pm »
Many of the opinion polls have illustrated that the public want to maintain access to the single market and their current day to day living/working/travelling arrangements whilst also having the ability to control immigration. The government have to deliver else they will feel the backlash.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #69 on: October 11, 2016, 01:38:39 pm »
I dont agree. If the economy takes a significant hit then Tories will take the brunt of it. Tory papers like The Telegraph have been generally scathing and we havent even done anything yet.

The Tories are not a loved party and they are not bullet proof. Its all rosy at the moment under this rhetoric but when stuff in the shops start being more expensive, people are priced out of holidays and jobs go then guns will all be focussed on them.

There is a whole load of trouble waiting for the Tories. The only way they avoid that is if they somehow manage to get a deal that lets them control immigration and access the single market tariff free.

one thing the public do not like is when the economy hits the skids.

labour are still blamed for the crisis even though it was caused by subprime.

they will be badly damaged and un electable if the economy does go wrong.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #70 on: October 11, 2016, 02:14:17 pm »
one thing the public do not like is when the economy hits the skids.

labour are still blamed for the crisis even though it was caused by subprime.

they will be badly damaged and un electable if the economy does go wrong.

But unfortunatley it will be a May v Corbyn senario and May will win.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #71 on: October 11, 2016, 02:17:28 pm »
You are basing that on the current situation, not the potential situation in the future. They dominate the landscape at the moment but things can switch quickly and the old attachment to single parties seems to be dying out.

Its easy to be positive at the moment when there are a high number of people in employment (whatever contract that might be) and the lack of morale and jobs are isolated to government departments, NHS and old industrial towns. But when inflation goes up and jobs start going in financial services, car manufacturers and tech companies then lots of high employment areas and 'Blue' regions will take a hit.

The Tories currently have the most difficult job. Pretty much all the opinion polls have shown that the public want to have their cake and eat it in terms of single market, status quo access/living and controls on immigration. They are going to have to deliver.

The problem is that its a bit more than passing issues for the other parties at present, they're facing very fundamental issues.

UKIP have achieved their primary aim and the Tories are stealing their colours on several issues, plus are at each others throats, hard to see how they remain relevant in the medium term.

The LibDems should be picking up some support at present but aren't, they're an irrelevance to most and irritated a lot of their former core support with their behaviour in coalition.

Labour just aren't trusted on leadership and the economy, the Labour membership has a very different view of where the party should position itself than its potential pool of voters, and its hard to see how that significantly changes in this parliament.

The Tories aren't bulletproof at present, far from it, I think its a pretty incompetent and obviously unpleasant government, but they'll have a lot more leeway than usual as a lot of voters don't see a credible alternative out there and they'll have the press spinning hard for them over the coming years. Britain generally has lurched in a populist/nationalist direction and they are sadly well placed to benefit from that

Also I do expect an economic slowdown as a result of Brexit, but something on the magnitude of 2008 and the Global financial crisis is still highly unlikely.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #72 on: October 11, 2016, 03:21:24 pm »
The brilliant James O'Brien deconstructing the arguments of another Leave voter:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/which-eu-law-are-you-looking-forward-to-losing/

What are they left with? Immigrants, though he has "no problem with them".


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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #73 on: October 11, 2016, 03:45:06 pm »
The problem is that its a bit more than passing issues for the other parties at present, they're facing very fundamental issues.

UKIP have achieved their primary aim and the Tories are stealing their colours on several issues, plus are at each others throats, hard to see how they remain relevant in the medium term.

The LibDems should be picking up some support at present but aren't, they're an irrelevance to most and irritated a lot of their former core support with their behaviour in coalition.

Labour just aren't trusted on leadership and the economy, the Labour membership has a very different view of where the party should position itself than its potential pool of voters, and its hard to see how that significantly changes in this parliament.

The Tories aren't bulletproof at present, far from it, I think its a pretty incompetent and obviously unpleasant government, but they'll have a lot more leeway than usual as a lot of voters don't see a credible alternative out there and they'll have the press spinning hard for them over the coming years. Britain generally has lurched in a populist/nationalist direction and they are sadly well placed to benefit from that

Also I do expect an economic slowdown as a result of Brexit, but something on the magnitude of 2008 and the Global financial crisis is still highly unlikely.
I honestly hope you right m8 but theres a whole generation out their who have always lived with low inflation. they have no idea of the damage it can do.  inflation will rise that's certain, how much is the worry. this will hurt us all more than anything else if it gets our of control.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #74 on: October 11, 2016, 03:55:41 pm »
I honestly hope you right m8 but theres a whole generation out their who have always lived with low inflation. they have no idea of the damage it can do.  inflation will rise that's certain, how much is the worry. this will hurt us all more than anything else if it gets our of control.

Where we are "lucky" if that is the right word, is that the world generally has been facing significant deflationary pressure for a while now, in times like this there generally tends to be pressure on margins not to fully pass on increased costs to consumers, so headline inflation can often tend to increase more slowly than you might expect.

The same kind of thing happened when Sterling fell out of the ERM pretty violently, inflation actually stayed pretty well under control in spite of the large devaluation in Sterling.

Obviously there are limits to how far you can devalue or face increased tariffs before it does become an issue, but it buys you a bit of leeway especially as underlying inflation has been weak for a long period now.

Ultimately though its risky to say the least, as you say people have probably got a bit complacent about inflation as we haven't had to face it in a significant way for a fair while, once it gets properly back into the system it is painful to get back under control.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #75 on: October 11, 2016, 04:08:02 pm »
Where we are "lucky" if that is the right word, is that the world generally has been facing significant deflationary pressure for a while now, in times like this there generally tends to be pressure on margins not to fully pass on increased costs to consumers, so headline inflation can often tend to increase more slowly than you might expect.

The same kind of thing happened when Sterling fell out of the ERM pretty violently, inflation actually stayed pretty well under control in spite of the large devaluation in Sterling.

Obviously there are limits to how far you can devalue or face increased tariffs before it does become an issue, but it buys you a bit of leeway especially as underlying inflation has been weak for a long period now.

Ultimately though its risky to say the least, as you say people have probably got a bit complacent about inflation as we haven't had to face it in a significant way for a fair while, once it gets properly back into the system it is painful to get back under control.
Yes. am not sure we could control the inflation as it would be due to a few reasons beyond our control.
We can only hold the pound up for so long. then there is the increased cost of importing goods+materials.etc. I know people will say this will make our exports more cheaper but that's not relevant to the inflation problem.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #76 on: October 11, 2016, 05:25:02 pm »
But unfortunatley it will be a May v Corbyn senario and May will win.

think they will be so damaged it will be multi party government.

bit like the situation in spain....when they finally form a government.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #77 on: October 11, 2016, 08:27:57 pm »
Worst four days since June pushes sterling to $1.22

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-markets-sterling-idUKKCN12B0LQ

Sterling shed more then 1 percent to trade as low as $1.22 on Tuesday as senior officials and investors pointed to the potential for more declines in a market still trying to recover from Friday's 10 percent flash crash.

The past four days were the pound's worst since the aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union in June, and Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders warned a "bumpy" Brexit could sharply reduce British economic growth.

Good times ahead!  :thumbup

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #78 on: October 11, 2016, 10:23:26 pm »
Theresa May makes 'one hell of a climbdown' as she fights to stop Tory rebellion over Brexit

 Theresa May was accused of an embarrassing climbdown tonight as she battled to stop a Tory rebellion over her Brexit plans.

The Prime Minister accepted a symbolic call to let Parliament examine her strategy for leaving the EU - before she invokes Article 50 next year.

It came after she prompted outrage by refusing to reveal her plans in detail, behaviour Tory MP Stephen Phillips warned could amount to "tyranny".

Labour is due to make the call in the House of Commons tomorrow using an 'opposition day debate'.

 These votes are usually won by the government - but sources said some rebel Tories had planned to side with Labour, the Lib Dems and SNP in protest against Mrs May.

A Labour source claimed: "Given their position was they didn't think Parliament should have any role [this] is one hell of a climbdown.

It's clear they were in real trouble and didn't have the votes to defeat it.

"The government are clearly, rightfully, very worried."

Labour's motion calls for a "full and transparent debate on the government's plan for leaving the EU".

That includes letting the House of Commons "properly scrutinise that plan for leaving the EU before Article 50 is invoked".

Last week Mrs May said MPs who wanted to hold up her deal by approving it in Parliament were trying to "subvert democracy".

 But she tabled a last-minute amendment tonight which accepted the motion, as long as scrutiny in Parliament "respects" the Brexit vote and does not "undermine" the government's negotiating position.

Crucially though the motion did not include a key demand - a full vote in Parliament on the Brexit deal before Mrs May triggers Article 50.

And any defeat on the government would have been only symbolic because opposition day debates have no legal force.

A Downing Street source denied the move was a climbdown, saying: "The Government is focused on delivering on Brexit .

"We have always been clear that Parliament has an important role to play, and this motion reflects that."

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-brexit-one-hell-climbdown-9026272#ICID=sharebar_twitter
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #79 on: October 11, 2016, 11:26:42 pm »
There are real splits between the Treasury and the Brexiteers Fox and Davis. Only one winner there.