Author Topic: Report - The coveted prize and the Brendan Rodgers footballing philosophy (Read 31202 times)

jamieredders · « **on:** August 17, 2012, 11:25:35 pm »

Really excited about this season. A new man at the helm with a new style.

Here we are on the eve of the season and I thought it would be of interest to list what Swansea City achieved under Brendan Rodgers last season and what we have to do better than Swansea did to achieve the coveted prize.

Swansea's record was as follows:

Overall

P38 W12 D11 L15 PTS47

Home

W8 D7 L4

Away

W4 D4 L11

His team at Swansea was in the main (PL starts in brackets):

GK Vorm (36)
RB Rangel (32)
LB Taylor (35)
CB Williams (36)
CB Caulker (25)
MC Britton (34)
MC Allen (18)
MC Siggurdson (16)
RW Dyer (28)
LW Sinclair (34)
ST Graham (31)

As I write, Liverpool's expected First 11 is this:

GK Reina
RB Johnson
LB Enrique
CB Skrtel
CB Agger
MC Lucas
MC Allen
MC Gerrard
RW Downing
LW Borini
ST Suarez

On paper, a massive difference in class to those starting 11's.

To win the league last season, took 89 points. A massive 42 points difference from what Swansea achieved.
To finish 4th last season and potentially qualify for the megabucks in Europe required 69 points. A 22 point differential.

Can Liverpool's far more classy squad acquire those extra 22 points and finish Top 4?

Swansea were earning roughly 1.24 points per game to finish 11th and five points behind Liverpool in 8th. Man City were earning 2.34 points per game to win the title. Spurs were earning 1.82 points per game to finish 4th and then gazumped for a Champions League place.

Therefore to speculatively finish in the top 4, Liverpool must earn approximately 0.6 pts per game better than Swansea did last season.

Swansea's record ............Home result first, away result second

Man City WL
Man Utd LL
Arsenal WL
Tottenham XL
Newcastle LX
Chelsea XL
Everton LL
Liverpool WX
Fulham WW
WBA WW
Norwich LL
Sunderland XL
Stoke WL
Wigan XW
A Villa XW
QPR XL
Bolton WX
Blackburn WL
Wolves XX

V Top 6 teams = W2 X3 L7 (9 pts from 12 games) (0.75 pts per game)

V Middle 8 teams W6 X2 L6 (20 points from 14 games) (1.43 pts per game)

V Bottom 6 Teams = W4 X6 L2 (18 points from 12 games) (1.5 pts per game)

Conclusion

Assuming that the table this year will be much the same as last year.
Assuming that BR's style of football for Swansea will continue at Liverpool.
Assuming that Liverpool have a much higher quality of player than Swansea had last year.
For a Top 4 place and an improvement of 0.6 pts per game, Liverpool must look to achieve these results:

V Top 6 - W4 X4 L4 - 16 pts (12 games = 1.33 pts per game)

Man City H-X A-X
Man Utd H-L A-L
Arsenal H-L A-X
Tottenham H-W A-L
Newcastle H-X A-W
Chelsea H -X A-X

V Middle 8 - W8 X4 L2 - 28 pts (14 games = 2 pts per game)

Everton H-X A-X
Fulham H-W A-W
WBA H-L A-L
Swansea H-W A-X
Norwich H-W A-W
Sunderland H-W A-X
Stoke H-X A-L

V Bottom 6 - W8 X4 L0 - 28 pts (12 games = 2.33 pts per game)

Wigan H-W A-W
A Villa H-L A-W
QPR H-W A-W
Reading H-W A-X
Southampton H-W A-L
West Ham H- X A-W

This would give Liverpool 72 points and an expected 3rd or 4th place in the premiership and the coveted cash prize.

Possible?

With a determination within the side and a little luck along the way - definitely!

PS

72 points is not necessarily the target. See below

4th position pts required in 20 team premierships

2013 73 pts 21 wins
2012 69 pts 20 wins
2011 68 pts 19 wins
2010 70 pts 21 wins
2009 72 pts 20 wins
2008 76 pts 21 wins
2007 68 pts 19 wins
2006 67 pts 20 wins
2005 61 pts 18 wins
2004 60 pts 16 wins
2003 67 pts 19 wins
2002 71 pts 21 wins
2001 68 pts 20 wins
2000 67 pts 19 wins
1999 67 pts 18 wins
1998 63 pts 20 wins
1997 68 pts 19 wins
1996 63 pts 18 wins

Nonex · « **Reply #1 on:** August 18, 2012, 12:48:14 am »

Good post in theory. Too many iffs, buts and ands though practically. For example, not losing to any of the bottom sides? Like that's going to happen... Now look what you've made me do, I've become negative before we have even kicked a ball...

jamieredders · « **Reply #2 on:** August 20, 2012, 06:14:35 pm »

Match 1 - WBA (A) - Lost 0.3
Required points to achieve CL place = 2
Points Attained = 0
Predicted Total Points = 70
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -2

jamieredders · « **Reply #3 on:** August 27, 2012, 09:21:49 am »

Match 2 - Man City (H) - Drew 2.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 1.33
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 69.67
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -2.33

jamieredders · « **Reply #4 on:** September 19, 2012, 11:59:08 pm »

Match 3 - Arsenal (H) - Lost 0.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 1.33
Points Attained = 0
Predicted Total Points = 68.34
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -3.66

jamieredders · « **Reply #5 on:** September 20, 2012, 12:00:29 am »

Match 4 - Sunderland (A) - Drew 1.1
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.0
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 67.34
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -4.66

jamieredders · « **Reply #6 on:** September 23, 2012, 08:32:07 pm »

Match 5 - Man United (H) - Lost 1.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 1.33
Points Attained = 0
Predicted Total Points = 66.01
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -5.99

lfcmaster · « **Reply #7 on:** September 23, 2012, 09:20:25 pm »

Wins will come soon

I can't remember the last time we had such tough fixtures at the start of the season

Caligula? · « **Reply #8 on:** September 23, 2012, 09:29:01 pm »

Fair play to the OP.

But comparing ourselves to Swansea City? For the love of God, is that how far we've fallen?

Prof · « **Reply #9 on:** September 24, 2012, 01:17:31 am »

Well done to the OP. Nice way to illustrate that all is not lost, even with our current league position.

Just an observation on your projections of final points. For the man city match, you've only taken off 0.33, not 1.33.

The good news is, we don't have to do anything that's not realistic to hit the 72 points mark.

jamieredders · « **Reply #10 on:** September 24, 2012, 07:10:04 am »

Quote from: Prof on September 24, 2012, 01:17:31 am

Well done to the OP. Nice way to illustrate that all is not lost, even with our current league position.

Just an observation on your projections of final points. For the man city match, you've only taken off 0.33, not 1.33.

The good news is, we don't have to do anything that's not realistic to hit the 72 points mark.

Thanks Prof.

Man City game = we needed 1.33 pts. We got one. Therefore we lost .33 pts towards the predicted total.

jamieredders · « **Reply #11 on:** September 24, 2012, 07:14:49 am »

Quote from: BG Red on September 23, 2012, 09:29:01 pm

Fair play to the OP.

But comparing ourselves to Swansea City? For the love of God, is that how far we've fallen?

The whole point of the thread is to see if Brendan Rodger's and his style works better at LFC than it did for Swansea mate. If it does, then we will be very close to a return to the Champions League.

royhendo · « **Reply #12 on:** September 24, 2012, 12:03:03 pm »

http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/LFC_2012_13_Perf_Dashboard/LFC

Barney_Rubble · « **Reply #13 on:** September 25, 2012, 09:34:30 pm »

Hey, keep this on topic. It's not a post-match topic or a place for griping and groaning.

^{How many more of them do we need?}

jamieredders · « **Reply #14 on:** September 29, 2012, 04:50:50 pm »

Match 6 - Norwich (A) - Won 5.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.0
Points Attained = 3
Predicted Total Points = 67.01
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -4.99

At last, a game where we gain some points.

Well deserved. Brilliant football. Just loving Brendan and the style he demands.

jamieredders · « **Reply #15 on:** October 8, 2012, 07:22:05 am »

Match 7 - Stoke (H) - Drew 0.0
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.0
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 66.01
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -5.99

the 92A · « **Reply #16 on:** October 8, 2012, 04:08:09 pm »

Keep it going Jamie

Trada · « **Reply #17 on:** October 8, 2012, 04:15:01 pm »

Are we as good as Swansea yet?

jamieredders · « **Reply #18 on:** October 20, 2012, 10:05:16 pm »

Match 8 - Reading (H) - Won 1.0
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.33
Points Attained = 3
Predicted Total Points = 66.68
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -5.32

jamieredders · « **Reply #19 on:** October 29, 2012, 07:52:48 pm »

Match 9 - Everton (A) - Drew 2.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.0
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 65.68
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -6.32

Joff · « **Reply #20 on:** October 29, 2012, 08:23:55 pm »

I like this.

Hij · « **Reply #21 on:** October 31, 2012, 01:39:45 pm »

danielfonseca · « **Reply #22 on:** October 31, 2012, 05:52:58 pm »

We have 10 points from 9 league games.

Love the optimism.

Caligula? · « **Reply #23 on:** October 31, 2012, 11:56:31 pm »

Hey, Jamie lad, no need for all this effort really.

Direct comparison between us and Swansea? How about the fact that they've beaten us twice in a row now, and that we haven't beaten them in the last 3 attempts, scoring 1 in the process and conceding 4, 3 of those at Anfield.

Simply put, they're better than us at the moment.

Z e u s · « **Reply #24 on:** November 1, 2012, 12:13:02 am »

Comparing us with Swansea? Fuck me, our standards have dropped!

Hij · « **Reply #25 on:** November 1, 2012, 01:04:08 am »

Should really read the opening post before dropping emotionally heated comments based on a loss.

jamieredders · « **Reply #26 on:** November 4, 2012, 07:26:07 pm »

Match 10 - Newcastle (H) - Drew 1.1
Required points to achieve CL place = 1.33
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 65.35
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -6.65

jamieredders · « **Reply #27 on:** November 11, 2012, 06:01:02 pm »

Match 11 - Chelsea (A) - Drew 1.1
Required points to achieve CL place = 1.33
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 65.02
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -6.98

jamieredders · « **Reply #28 on:** November 17, 2012, 06:13:29 pm »

Match 12 - Wigan (H) - Won 3.0
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.33
Points Attained = 3
Predicted Total Points = 65.69
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -6.31

Massive win that today. Anything less than a win and we were pretty much dead and buried on Top 4 chances.

We're hanging in there and the Transfer Window is 6 weeks away.

Pressure is on in these games coming up where wins are a necessity. Come on Redmen.

jamieredders · « **Reply #29 on:** November 25, 2012, 05:12:18 pm »

Match 13 - Swansea (A) - Drew 0.0
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.0
Points Attained = 1
Predicted Total Points = 64.69
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -7.31

We needed a win today. When you look at the full picture in the OP, the fixture list has been fookin unkind to us. However, we are now over 7 pts off the points rate required. A win at Spurs would put us right back in it, with a nice run of fixtures to follow. It's not all over yet. We need to be thereabouts by the time the January window arrives.

jamieredders · « **Reply #30 on:** November 28, 2012, 10:18:45 pm »

Match 14 - Tottenham (A) - Lost 1.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 1.33
Points Attained = 0
Predicted Total Points = 63.36
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -8.64

No room for failure now - Over 8 pts off the pts rate required. Five winnable games coming up. They have to be won to stand any chance.

Sat1 · « **Reply #31 on:** November 28, 2012, 10:25:51 pm »

Quote from: Z e u s on November 1, 2012, 12:13:02 am

Comparing us with Swansea? Fuck me, our standards have dropped!

Maybe we need to accept how far we have fallen.

Fans of Swansea, stoke, WBA put us on par with them.

Top 4 seems a millennium away.

jamieredders · « **Reply #32 on:** November 28, 2012, 10:34:01 pm »

Quote from: Sat1 on November 28, 2012, 10:25:51 pm

Maybe we need to accept how far we have fallen.

Fans of Swansea, stoke, WBA put us on par with them.

Top 4 seems a millennium away.

I actually never responded to those posts after a League Cup game which has nothing to do with this thread. I've changed the name of the thread to avoid any confusion.

Kashinoda · « **Reply #33 on:** November 28, 2012, 10:38:57 pm »

Great work make really appreciate it!

Some people from the top four thread should probably take a look at this and calm down.

jamieredders · « **Reply #34 on:** November 28, 2012, 10:43:25 pm »

Quote from: Kashinoda on November 28, 2012, 10:38:57 pm

Great work make really appreciate it!

Some people from the top four thread should probably take a look at this and calm down.

They should mate. This thread shows that all may not be as bad it seems. However we need to deliver the required results right now against the lesser teams. Up till now, in the main, we have done that. Play like we did tonight and I think we will win these games.

Your time has come Brendan

jamieredders · « **Reply #35 on:** December 1, 2012, 07:30:49 pm »

Match 15 - Southampton (H) - Won 1.0
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.33
Points Attained = 3
Predicted Total Points = 64.03
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -7.97

Phew. Outclassed them but yet again we don't put away the chances. Every game is like a cup final at the moment to keep the season and the dream alive. The window is coming soon and still we hang in there - just. We need to win at West Ham. Big ask after the way they destroyed Rafa's new side today. Plus no Luis next week after picking up his 5th yellow.

Come on Redmen!

jamieredders · « **Reply #36 on:** December 9, 2012, 06:18:46 pm »

Match 16 - West Ham (A) - Won 3.2
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.33
Points Attained = 3
Predicted Total Points = 64.70
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -7.30
Current 4th Place extrapolated = Everton P16 Pts 26 = 61.75 pts

Absolutely fan fookin tastic result.

Added a new line today. No doubt the premiership is taking a different route this season. Whereas I have based all the figures on 72pts to achieve a CL place, with an extrapolation of 4th place current standing, it is only 61/62 pts - Not seen since 2005.

With our current predicted points total of 64/65 we are right in the mix for that.

Two massive home games coming up. Win those and the season is well and truly alive.

jamieredders · « **Reply #37 on:** December 16, 2012, 02:22:52 pm »

Match 17 - Aston Villa (H) - Lost 1.3
Required points to achieve CL place = 2.33
Points Attained = 0
Predicted Total Points = 62.37
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -9.63
Current 4th Place extrapolated = Everton P17 Pts 27 = 60.35 pts

Just when everything was looking rosy, we go and take our worst defeat of the season. The 100% record against the bottom 6 clubs gets shattered too. Just seem to keep repeating myself, we don't finish our chances. Lo and behold Villa break away a couple of times and destroy us when they should have been dead and buried.

We need the window badly. Now almost 10 pts adrift of the original target, we are still hanging in there courtesy of a piss-poor extrapolated 4th position total of only 60 pts. The dominance of the top sides seen in recent years is not happening this year for sure. Possibly the most wide open premiership since it went to 20 clubs for a top 4 finish. This fortunately for us is the reason that the Redmen are still in with a chance.

Fulham next. The reds hurting from the defeat of the villains. Fulham absolutely shite away from home and just beaten by QPR. We have to batter them.

jamieredders · « **Reply #38 on:** December 23, 2012, 09:37:15 am »

Match 18 - Fulham (H) - Won 4.0
Required points to achieve CL place = 2
Points Attained = 3
Predicted Total Points = 63.37
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -8.63
Current 4th Place extrapolated = Everton P18 Pts 30 = 63.33 pts

A convincing display. Sturridge having a medical. Interestingly, our predicted pts total of 63 is exactly the same as the current 4th place extrapolation.

It's going to be a very exciting 2nd half of the season.

Stoke next. Tough one.

Merry Xmas all

jamieredders · « **Reply #39 on:** December 27, 2012, 10:11:52 am »

Match 19 - Stoke (A) - Lost 1.3
Required points to achieve CL place = 2
Points Attained = 0
Predicted Total Points = 61.37
Predicted Total Points required = 72
Differential = -10.63
Current 4th Place extrapolated = Everton P19 Pts 33 = 66 pts

Incredible how one defeat blows you out of the water. We are off the rate required now, whichever way you look at it.

Brendan V Stoke reads H- WX A -LL and is the first side he has met four times in the premiership. They don't come any uglier than Stoke

Author Topic: Report - The coveted prize and the Brendan Rodgers footballing philosophy (Read 31202 times)

royhendo