Topic: Is this the begining of the run to the title?

[4pool]

After we thumped the Mancs to do the double last year, we went on our famous run and trophy haul.

So now we've thumped the Mancs for the double again and then have two wins on the trot v Leicester and Leeds.

Do you feel that we can build on this and have another run? Or will inconsistencies show up as we grind out draws with mid table sides?

An in form Heskey will greatly improve our chances. Maybe he plays better in Feb.-May.

Anelka needs to find his shooting boots as well. With some confidence from our midfielders maybe more goals will flow.
We have nothing to be ashamed of with our defense. All we need are a few more goals..

So do we find them and many victories? Or do we go back to struggling for goals and the draws that inevitably insue?

Your thoughts.....

[laddo]

in one word mate - YES

thats yes we are capable, but whether or not we will or not depends on the desire of the players... a key part will be gerrard, if he can remain injury free, on form and in the middle then we will finish top two no doubt. IMO hes our most important player, he makes everyone else play well... heskey will also be key, yes, anelka being at the club will make him work hard to stay in the team , like he is now.

Weve got most our hard games out the way now, its whether we can win against the lesser clubs now...

[MfQ]

As laddo said, we got our hard games out of the way. There are no more tricky away fixtures, although we will host Chelsea and Newcastle. One we have to watch out for is the two games against Ipswich, they are on terrific form lately. United still have to go to Elland Road, Arsenal have to go to United, Chelsea too.. and Newcastle have to come here.. these are off the top of my head, but its good to get all the away fixtures against the top six out of the way.

We can and hopefully will go on to win it. Unfortunately we are out of the cups but this means we won't have a tight fixture schedule.. who knows what will happen in the Champs League.. but fingers crossed for the big one..

[RedBoywonder]

Lets try & keep our feet on the ground a bit!

a few weeks ago it was all doom & gloom, I'll just wait & see in the next few games b4 I start dusting off my champions hat!



YNWA....

[C.B Alonso]

yep yep yep,

lets not get too excited.

Its all about Ipswich on Saturday.

[Wilbur]

Today the team took the lead and then proceeded to run up the score.  This is the method I remember us using as the Reds of the Eighties, when scoring two was not enough against somebody like Luton.  If we maintain this attitude, we will sit pretty come May.

YNWA

[ecmdtan]

I'll be happy if we finish in the top 2 this season (my pre season target).  If we keep going on like this, we'll be in with a shout.

[KFC]

I believe that this year 75 points will bring any team the title.  That translate into

For us to drop less than 10 points in all our remaining matches.  We had the easiest run-ins (as is Leeds but they are pretty much out of it now):

Ipswich (A) - potential 2 points loss
Everton (H)
Fulham (A) - potential 2 points loss
Newcastle (H)
Boro (A)
Chelsea (H) - potential 2 points loss
Charlton (H)
Blackburn (H)
Sunderland (A) - potential 2 points loss
Derby (H)
Spurs (A) - potential 2 points loss
Ipswich (H)

That is 75 points assuming we won all the other games.  That is just barely enough.  Of course by the time we play Sunderland they might have nothing to play for (so are Derby who should be relegated by then and Ipswich who should have avoided relegation) so we might be about to just nick it.  If we can get a result this Saturday we can target a 77-79 point finish which to me should be good enough.  

Of course it is still too early to tell, but if we can get the same run as last year I cannot see why not we can't be the champions this year.

[redtel]

Lets hope it is.The defence is sound as we know and Dudek should be picked as best goalie in Prem. when votes cast.

Heskey and Owen will do the job if given the service.

Midfield is the key. Stevie G must stay fit but in the home games we need to win the midfield battle and then pass through a massed defence.This is proving difficult.

The treble last season and the double in '86 both started with winning runs from Feb.  Heres hoping.

[Anthony]

KFC - to take an earlier topic (which I lost track of  but may do again soon) we got 21 points from those games last season (substituting Man City for Fulham & Coventry for Blackburn) - that would give us 70 points, an improvement on last season, but only just!

Despite the euphoria after yesterday, I still have concerns over our consistency. People have said that we have the top games out of the way but those are not the ones we have had problems winning. By some accounts I've seen we *didn't* play well against Leicester (at least Emile broke his duck!) and I have yet to see how we can deal with a team that does not want to play to our strengths by attacking us (although coming out of the traps like we did against Leeds can't do any harm!)

I know it's a cliche but it is the next game that is the most important - can we take Ipswich apart the way we did Leeds? In fact, all of a sudden, this really is the month that will define our season. We're back into the CL games again needing at least 4 points (and preferably all 6) against Galatasaray to stay in the hunt there plus we have the home Derby to play as well. If we trip up now it will wreck our season.

[john_mac]

I think that if we get three points from each of these games

Ipswich (A)
Everton (H)
Fulham (A)
Newcastle (H)
Boro (A)
Chelsea (H)
Charlton (H)
Blackburn (H)
Sunderland (A)
Derby (H)
Spurs (A)
Ipswich (H)

we'll win the league

[archie]

another 3 points
and a confidence inspiring performance
the players must believe in themselves.
we do have the ability
but have we got the nerve?
the mancs are just rolling over other teams with ease.
they are clear favourites.
lets keep the feet on the pavement for a while yet and keep picking up points.
starting at ipswich.
COME ON LADS!!!!!!
ynwa
the arch

[Anthony]

Hmmm! But if Arsenal can get 3 points from each of *these* games...


10-Feb-02 A Everton
23-Feb-02 H Fulham
02-Mar-02 A Newcastle United
05-Mar-02 H Derby County
17-Mar-02 A Aston Villa
23-Mar-02 H West Ham United
30-Mar-02 H Sunderland
01-Apr-02 A Charlton Athletic
06-Apr-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
13-Apr-02 A Manchester United
20-Apr-02 H Ipswich Town
27-Apr-02 A Bolton Wanderers
11-May-02 H Everton

They'll win the League!

One home Derby, 2 games against teams currently in the top 6, just like us. Why should they do any worse than we do??

To answer my own question, they only got 20 points out of those matches last season! Add that on to the 48 they currently have and that would give them 68 points.


The bad news is with the Mancs' run-in

Mancs (12 games)
10-Feb-02 A Charlton Athletic
23-Feb-02 H Aston Villa
03-Mar-02 A Derby County
06-Mar-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
16-Mar-02 A West Ham United
23-Mar-02 H Middlesbrough
30-Mar-02 A Leeds United
06-Apr-02 A Leicester City
13-Apr-02 H Arsenal
20-Apr-02 A Chelsea
27-Apr-02 A Ipswich Town
11-May-02 H Charlton Athletic


(0 local Derbies, unless you count Leeds, 3 games against top 6)

They didn't lose *any* of those games last year and picked up 26 points. Add that to their current total of 51 points and that gives a total of 77 points

Just for the sake of it, here are the other 3 run-ins

Newcastle (13 games)

09-Feb-02 H Southampton
24-Feb-02 A Sunderland
02-Mar-02 H Arsenal
06-Mar-02 A Liverpool
16-Mar-02 H Ipswich Town
23-Mar-02 A Blackburn Rovers
29-Mar-02 H Everton
02-Apr-02 A Aston Villa
06-Apr-02 H Fulham
13-Apr-02 A Derby County
20-Apr-02 H Charlton Athletic
27-Apr-02 H West Ham United
11-May-02 A Southampton

(1 derby, 2 games against top 6 - 11 points last year + 49 = 60 points)

Chelsea (13 games)

09-Feb-02 A Aston Villa
02-Mar-02 A Charlton Athletic
06-Mar-02 H Fulham
13-Mar-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
16-Mar-02 H Sunderland
24-Mar-02 A Liverpool
30-Mar-02 H Derby County
01-Apr-02 A Ipswich Town
06-Apr-02 H Everton
13-Apr-02 A Blackburn Rovers
20-Apr-02 H Manchester United
27-Apr-02 A Middlesbrough
11-May-02 H Aston Villa

(1 Derby, 2 games against top 6 - 20 points last year +43 = 63 points)

Leeds (13 games)

09-Feb-02 A Middlesbrough
24-Feb-02 H Charlton Athletic  
03-Mar-02 A Everton  
06-Mar-02 H Ipswich Town
17-Mar-02 H Blackburn Rovers
23-Mar-02 A Leicester City
30-Mar-02 H Manchester United
07-Apr-02 H Sunderland
13-Apr-02 A Aston Villa
20-Apr-02 H Fulham
27-Apr-02 A Derby County
11-May-02 H Middlesbrough
TBA A Tottenham Hotspur

(0 Derbies except Man Utd, 1 game against top 6 - 19 points last season + 42 = 61 points)

Now, you have to account for an increase or decrease in form, which would work against the Mancs, Leeds & Arsenal but in favour of us, Newcastle & Chelsea but, if last seasons results were repeated to the end of the season, the final table would look like this...

Man Utd - 77 points (-3)
Liverpool - 70 points (+1)
Arsenal - 68 points (-2)
Chelsea - 63 points (+2)
Leeds - 61 points (-7)
Newcastle - 60 points (+9)

Phew!  

[WOOLTONIAN]

I am very optimistic, The good recent wins under our belt would have boosted our moral no end.
If we can win the next two games I think our run in (slightly easier than others) could put us on a roll. I think the ECL is a distraction we could do without and think our priority should be the Premiership and always should be.
Fingers, Toes and Legs crossed !!

[RedLoner]

I'm siding with those who are (optimistically) cautious on this one. Just a few weeks ago (almost) everybody was depressed, and another defeat could send us back to the moaning.

I insist on the argument that we are badly missing Houllier; not to take anything from PT, I think he's done a great job as an assistant; but the absence of GH has put a halt on any team progress, and the recent wins were due to a lot of hard work and a fighting spirit, they haven't come easy. That's why I don't expect matters to be flowing smoothly between now and the end of the season.

This said, we do have a chance at the championship, with only Chelsea and Newcastle potentially offering serious contention, at least on paper. In short, he answer is: I don't know.

[Gnurglan]

I'm not that worried when we play the top sides. I was worried before the Manc game, but not that much before the Leeds game.

What does worry me is the times when we have to do the attacking vs a team that sits back and defend for their lives.   There were some good signs vs Leeds. Gerrard got more involved (and what a difference he makes!) and Heskey is looking a lot better since the Manc game.

But I'm yet to be fully convinced. We have been sort of confused, lacking ideas and movement, when having a lot of possession against a defensively playing team (Arsenal twice, with one man more on the pitch on both occassions for example). Next time someone tries that tactics against us, I hope to see a more aggressive approach, with more movement and the odd one touch ball. If we get that, I think we'll make it this year!

Why us? We haven't really played fantastic football over a number of games so far, have we? All the other top teams have. To me, it seems like we have another gear that we haven't seen yet.

[Gojedo]

I now know what C.B was getting at when he suggested in another thread about just taking it one game at a time where I thought more along the lines as looking at all of them as a collective to a goal at the end and you can look at it either way but 1-0, 1-0, 4-0 against a hard mid-table team and two championship contenders has me thinking 'shit, we really could do it' and now with maybe a bit more expectation(unfairly?) I don't want to get my hopes up too high so yeah, in this sort of situation no doubt we can do it but each game as it comes will be my outlook from now on. I'll be hoping we can take three points off Ipswich and then when they're out of the way hopefully, on to the next game. Don't know if I make sense but I think I see what you mean when you say It's all about who we play next Alan.

[ecmdtan]

I agree Gnurglan.. we seem to raise our game for big games (generally speaking) but look totally lost against weaker teams that set out to defend.  And that's where championships are won and lost.  Hate to say it, but the Mancs seem to have it down pat now when playing agaisn't weaker opposition.  They just steamroll past them.

For the past couple of years now, we seem to struggle agains't weaker opposition.  Yes, we got the points at Leceister, which was extremely important, but how convincing were we.  Playing the way we did then, can we honestly expect full points or is dropping points more likely.

Someone recently said to me, we also play better when we are away, and looking back, I must agree.  There is less pressure on the lads to perform. Looking at our fixture line up, our next home game against a 'weak' opposition is  Charlton.  Hopefully by then we would put on a good run of results to raise of our confidence up to a level where it won't affect us as much.

We'll see.

[C.B Alonso]

My head hurts reading this thread... :but:



Good luck to the lads on saturday!

[Anthony]

C.B. - Better get the aspirin out!  

I thought I would update this thread in the light of the latest round of matches.

Firstly, a surprising point. Although we appear to be doing well in the league on 59 points with 8 games to go we did, in fact, manage to get 60 points from the corresponding games last season and so, as things stand, we are actually doing slightly worse than last season!!! In the 8 games left to play we only managed to get 9 points out of a possible 24 and, although it would be a bitter disappointment to repeat that haul, it does perhaps illustrate quite clearly the point of where we have been struggling - against the poorer teams who only come to defend. One bright point would be that we are now probably at the point of the season where these teams will need to win rather than settle for the draw so it may suit our style better.

Anyway, if the teams in the top 6 repeated their results from last season in the games left to play the final table would look like this...

Man Utd (Max 85 points possible) Currently 61 pts + 16 pts = 77 Points (-3)
Arsenal (Max 87 points) Currently 60 pts + 15 pts = 75 Points (+5)
Liverpool (Max 83 points) Currently 59 pts + 9 pts = 68 Points (-1)
Newcastle (Max 82 points) Currently 55 pts + 8 pts = 63 Points (+12)
Chelsea (Max 77 points) Currently 47 pts + 16 pts = 63 Points (+2)
Leeds (Max 75 points) Currently 48 pts + 12 pts = 60 Points (-8 )

Just to remind you, 1st & 2nd place qualifies for the Champions League directly, while 3rd & 4th play a qualifier as we did this season. One change this season, which comes with the 4th CL place, is that if Man Utd, Arsenal or Liverpool win the CL *and* finish outside the top 4 then the 4th place team *does not* qualify for the CL as there can only be a maximum of 4 teams from each country.

[Wilbur]

Wow, I got home tonight to read that we played with three strikers against Newcastle, and we won.  Very nice result, and a classy way to collect it.  Still optimistic.

[mercury]

Man Utd (Max 85 points possible) Currently 61 pts + 16 pts = 77 Points (-3)
Arsenal (Max 87 points) Currently 60 pts + 15 pts = 75 Points (+5)
Liverpool (Max 83 points) Currently 59 pts + 9 pts = 68 Points (-1)
Newcastle (Max 82 points) Currently 55 pts + 8 pts = 63 Points (+12)
Chelsea (Max 77 points) Currently 47 pts + 16 pts = 63 Points (+2)
Leeds (Max 75 points) Currently 48 pts + 12 pts = 60 Points (-8 )

I thought Manc's haul is about right but both we and Arsenal would be able to collect more points.  But with a 3-match ban on Henry and Viera's hearing coming up, bad discipline might well be Arsenal's undoing (serve them)!!

[Shaky Jake]

Man U and Arsenal still looking strong. But dammit, so are we!!! So good last night.



SJ

[Fanxxxxtastic]

I'm not a pessimist, but I'm not one for being over confident either.

We had a great win against Newcastle last night.  I'm just hoping we can sustain this kind of pace and fluidity to our game on the run in.  Last seasons run in was maintained under pressure, who's to say it can't be done again.  Only time will tell.  

[RedLoner]

What your statistics are missing Anthony is how many points Man U and Arsenal had by this time last season. For Man U, I think it was more than what they have now,  and don't forget that they have lost 7 already. What I'm trying to say is that this season they are also doing worse than in the last, and we are closer to them.

Coming back to our chances, I think we're playing with much more confidence and we could put in a very good run, but I'm still a bit cautious, because both other contenders are also in good form, and any drop of points, even a draw, could make a difference between finishing 1st and 3rd.  Unfortunately, it's hard to see these bastards lose ground.

I'll keep the faith though, but wouldn't be sad if we end up 2nd or 3rd (just for this weird season) on condition that we finish it in good style, like we have been showing since the the Man U game.

[cain]

Was it tactics or the players playing with a confidence at home not seen for a while ?
Do the players see that Title within their grasp and are reaching out with all their might or was it just a 1 off lucky night?
No matter what happens in the Champions league lets hope they do not stray off the Title course as this must be the priority, the holy grail we so desire!
With a little bit of luck (Ars and the Mancs will slip up and the cream will rise to the top)

More of the same please GH,PT !!!!

[RedLoner]

I certainly don't think it was a one-off. We've been showing glimpses (even more) of attacking football lately. I'd say the imminent return of Houllier is having an direct effect on the players; the Man U win was also a big boost.

[MichaelA]

My brother had this sent to him today by a fellow red -

"If you are looking for good omens, how about comparing Liverpool's current record with that of the Reds last championship winning side.

At the 30-game mark of the 1989/90 season the stats read as follows -
Won 17, Drew 8, Lost 5, Points 59 - identical to this season".

I have started to really believe that we can do it. We looked irrestistible last night (some of us look irrisistible all the time). We are playing really well, getting results, getting players back, getting GH back. The only negative is Mikeys hamstring.

Michael

[KFC]

Actually my view on this is we can win the league only if we are beaten by Barca next week.  Man Utd will suffer together with Arsnela with fixture congestions and then Man United still have to travel to Elland Road and Stamford Bridge.

If we are out of the CL then we can have the full power going for the title and I believe we can still do it.  With my original expectation we are at 75 points but since we beat Ipswich (+2) and Fulham (+2) while drawing to Everton (-2) we are targeting 77 points -- that could just bring us the title but we would need to rely on Arsenal to draw 3 games.

[MichaelA]

Thats a bit negative KFC; success breeds success. I think this team benefits from playing lots of games (see last season!). A good run in the CL does not preclude a tilt at the title. the official site has got a big feature on our title run in over the last ten years, and makes the point about our identical league position to the last time we won.

Michael

[Roger]

the players are making all the right noises for me. Danny Murphy is key. Abel Xavier is another. more excited now than for along time.

[MJN]

With le boss coming back, perfect boost for everyone, both fans and players. We can do it

Also right about xavier. Think he must have played 4 us in a previous life, because he has slotted in just perfect  

[king_of_the_kop]

Hmmm! But if Arsenal can get 3 points from each of *these* games...


10-Feb-02 A Everton
23-Feb-02 H Fulham
02-Mar-02 A Newcastle United
05-Mar-02 H Derby County
17-Mar-02 A Aston Villa
23-Mar-02 H West Ham United
30-Mar-02 H Sunderland
01-Apr-02 A Charlton Athletic
06-Apr-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
13-Apr-02 A Manchester United
20-Apr-02 H Ipswich Town
27-Apr-02 A Bolton Wanderers
11-May-02 H Everton

They'll win the League!

One home Derby, 2 games against teams currently in the top 6, just like us. Why should they do any worse than we do??

To answer my own question, they only got 20 points out of those matches last season! Add that on to the 48 they currently have and that would give them 68 points.


The bad news is with the Mancs' run-in

Mancs (12 games)
10-Feb-02 A Charlton Athletic
23-Feb-02 H Aston Villa
03-Mar-02 A Derby County
06-Mar-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
16-Mar-02 A West Ham United
23-Mar-02 H Middlesbrough
30-Mar-02 A Leeds United
06-Apr-02 A Leicester City
13-Apr-02 H Arsenal
20-Apr-02 A Chelsea
27-Apr-02 A Ipswich Town
11-May-02 H Charlton Athletic


(0 local Derbies, unless you count Leeds, 3 games against top 6)

They didn't lose *any* of those games last year and picked up 26 points. Add that to their current total of 51 points and that gives a total of 77 points

Just for the sake of it, here are the other 3 run-ins

Newcastle (13 games)

09-Feb-02 H Southampton
24-Feb-02 A Sunderland
02-Mar-02 H Arsenal
06-Mar-02 A Liverpool
16-Mar-02 H Ipswich Town
23-Mar-02 A Blackburn Rovers
29-Mar-02 H Everton
02-Apr-02 A Aston Villa
06-Apr-02 H Fulham
13-Apr-02 A Derby County
20-Apr-02 H Charlton Athletic
27-Apr-02 H West Ham United
11-May-02 A Southampton

(1 derby, 2 games against top 6 - 11 points last year + 49 = 60 points)

Chelsea (13 games)

09-Feb-02 A Aston Villa
02-Mar-02 A Charlton Athletic
06-Mar-02 H Fulham
13-Mar-02 H Tottenham Hotspur
16-Mar-02 H Sunderland
24-Mar-02 A Liverpool
30-Mar-02 H Derby County
01-Apr-02 A Ipswich Town
06-Apr-02 H Everton
13-Apr-02 A Blackburn Rovers
20-Apr-02 H Manchester United
27-Apr-02 A Middlesbrough
11-May-02 H Aston Villa

(1 Derby, 2 games against top 6 - 20 points last year +43 = 63 points)

Leeds (13 games)

09-Feb-02 A Middlesbrough
24-Feb-02 H Charlton Athletic  
03-Mar-02 A Everton  
06-Mar-02 H Ipswich Town
17-Mar-02 H Blackburn Rovers
23-Mar-02 A Leicester City
30-Mar-02 H Manchester United
07-Apr-02 H Sunderland
13-Apr-02 A Aston Villa
20-Apr-02 H Fulham
27-Apr-02 A Derby County
11-May-02 H Middlesbrough
TBA A Tottenham Hotspur

(0 Derbies except Man Utd, 1 game against top 6 - 19 points last season + 42 = 61 points)

Now, you have to account for an increase or decrease in form, which would work against the Mancs, Leeds & Arsenal but in favour of us, Newcastle & Chelsea but, if last seasons results were repeated to the end of the season, the final table would look like this...

Man Utd - 77 points (-3)
Liverpool - 70 points (+1)
Arsenal - 68 points (-2)
Chelsea - 63 points (+2)
Leeds - 61 points (-7)
Newcastle - 60 points (+9)

Phew!  

I think Arsenal have too many matches,this will collide wih too many injuries and suspensions and they will lose the title at home against the likes of West Ham,Sunderland.
Myself I think United will lose the title because of a crap defence and they have Leeds,Arsenal,and Chelsea and I think they will get beat or draw aginst these relatively big teams.
Therefore Liverpool will win the league unbeatable on the road,we have le boss comin back and if we get behind them at home (against easy teams):Chelsea,Charlton,Blackburn,Derby and Ipswich we will be champs come May 11.The only team that we should only beat 1,2 nil will be Chelsea the others will be put the slaughter.Myself  i think Chelsea are too inconsistent,Leeds had a too bad run and ae dirty cheating bastards,and Newcastle are in dreamland. It will finish like this.
1st:LFC
2nd:Man U
3rd:Arsenal
4th:Newcastle
5th:Leeds
6th:Chelsea and i think The three teams facing relegation are Everton(ha,ha),Leiscter,Derby although i have a little feeling Blackburm will go down