Poll

How do we think the UK Will do - Assuming Brexit happens (Hard or Soft..)

Things will be brilliant from the word go and will get better every week!
Things will start off a bit dodgy, but over time things gradually improve and get better
Things will start off dodgy and remain that way for the forseeable future
Things will start off dodgy and then decline slightly with things getting a bit worse
Complete clusterfuck from start to finish

Author Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)  (Read 866319 times)

Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2080 on: January 17, 2017, 02:25:42 pm »
Politicians risking not getting elected in 2020? Not a chance. They will do what they think will get them elected. Especially those MPs from Sunderland, Burnley etc. I doubt many will risk it.

Yep Tories will largely toe the line on it and I don't see Labour 100% voting against, especially when realistically for the final deal the options will probably be whatever is on the table or the ultimate Hard Brexit with no deal at all.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2081 on: January 17, 2017, 02:28:13 pm »
to be honest it's not that hard. The problem with illegal immigration is not that bad - the fact is that if people don't have the legal right to work here, not many will come. You can have open borders without freedom of movement.

The genuine worker was never the real issue for people though was it, it was the 'spongers'.

A likely scenario is, you get a bunch of people arriving in N.I. to claim benefits/healthcare etc, what do you do, refuse them? Likely outcome of that is homelessness, crime rate increases, illegal workers etc. Even in small numbers it would be fairly damaging to an already brittle N.I. economy.

Offline redbyrdz

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2082 on: January 17, 2017, 02:28:30 pm »
How can a company employ anyone in the EU for the next few years?
In the EU?

Not sure i understand the question, do you mean how a UK company can employ anyone from the EU?

Until the UK has officially left (likely two years from the date of triggering article 50), nothing changes. Anyone from the EU can apply for work. After that, it depends if the EU national already has a right to work here (usually after 5 years), or if they need a visa, same as non-EU/EEA migrants.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2083 on: January 17, 2017, 02:30:27 pm »
to be honest it's not that hard. The problem with illegal immigration is not that bad - the fact is that if people don't have the legal right to work here, not many will come. You can have open borders without freedom of movement.

That's a fair point, if your someone from the poorer parts of Europe looking to move why would you go through the hassle of coming to the UK illegally when you can go to Germany, France, Holland etc legally and with no hassle?
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2084 on: January 17, 2017, 02:31:31 pm »
In the EU?

Not sure i understand the question, do you mean how a UK company can employ anyone from the EU?

Until the UK has officially left (likely two years from the date of triggering article 50), nothing changes. Anyone from the EU can apply for work. After that, it depends if the EU national already has a right to work here (usually after 5 years), or if they need a visa, same as non-EU/EEA migrants.

Exactly. So as there is no certainty on who will be allowed to stay even those who arrived before the vote, how can a company employ someone now from the EU when there is no idea about the future and resident rights?


Offline west_london_red

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2085 on: January 17, 2017, 02:35:26 pm »
The genuine worker was never the real issue for people though was it, it was the 'spongers'.


Disagree. Immigrants with jobs are still seen by some as stealing 'their' jobs (even if the jobs are highly skilled and the person complaining can just about write their own name), or undercutting wages.
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2086 on: January 17, 2017, 02:41:32 pm »
I'm not entirely surprised though, there have been some less than subtle comments coming out of the EU about the UK's future outside the EU as well, as it happens I may agree with many of those statements but they can't can't exactly be surprised if the UK indicates the possibility of some consequences for the EU of failing to reach a satisfactory economic agreement.

I don't expect it to be particularly effective but I don't think its particularly insulting either, we can't really go into the negotiation looking like the desperate supplicant looking for scraps from the table (even if that is pretty much what we are).

While the UK is obviously hugely guilty of playing politics with this issue, there's no getting away from the fact that the EU are too, there certainly aren't many economic reasons for giving the UK worse access to the EU compared to Canada, but that is the position we will likely end up in, in order for the EU to prove a point about the price of leaving the club.
Good point but we were making demands and nobody really believed we would get those deals, it goes back to the lies told before the referendum. I never expected her to be so blunt and aggressive though.
Her whole speech was full of contradictions and more importantly the reason given to justify the mess we are in is a complete lie. how everyone who voted leave went into this with their eyes wide open, a Tory MP resigned a few weeks back over this very point. there is no majority for a hard Brexit. millions voted for a deal that didn't exist.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 02:43:07 pm by oldfordie »
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Offline west_london_red

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2087 on: January 17, 2017, 02:42:36 pm »
Exactly. So as there is no certainty on who will be allowed to stay even those who arrived before the vote, how can a company employ someone now from the EU when there is no idea about the future and resident rights?


Depends how it pans out. We might get an increase people coming over before we formally leave in the hope they can stay, or (and I would do the same if I was in their boots) I would just go elsewhere where I wont have to worry about any of this crap.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2088 on: January 17, 2017, 02:43:10 pm »
Good point but we were making demands am not sure anyone really believed we would get, it goes back to the lies told before the referndum. I never expected her to be so blunt and aggressive though.
Her whole speech was full of contradictions and more importantly the reason given to justify the mess we are in is a complete lie. how everyone who voted leave went into this with their eyes wide open, a Tory MP resigned a few weeks back over this very point. there is no majority for a hard Brexit. millions voted for a deal that didn't exist.

Well if nothing else chasing this Fool's Gold may end up with us rejoining the EU sooner rather than later, if it does turn into an economic disaster I doubt the support for Brexit will stay strong for long.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2089 on: January 17, 2017, 02:52:14 pm »
Depends how it pans out. We might get an increase people coming over before we formally leave in the hope they can stay, or (and I would do the same if I was in their boots) I would just go elsewhere where I wont have to worry about any of this crap.

Yes but what about a high skilled doctor or scientist or engineer? There is no way a company can guarantee anything? If anything its non eu people who have more certainty as there is an established system.

I for one would encourage everyone not to come to this shit can island.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2090 on: January 17, 2017, 02:56:00 pm »
Well if nothing else chasing this Fool's Gold may end up with us rejoining the EU sooner rather than later, if it does turn into an economic disaster I doubt the support for Brexit will stay strong for long.
I hope your right but once we trigger article 50 it's out of our hands. only take 1 country to veto every attempt to rejoin and we stay out, there will be EU countrys who will gain from us leaving the EU.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2091 on: January 17, 2017, 02:56:07 pm »
Exactly. So as there is no certainty on who will be allowed to stay even those who arrived before the vote, how can a company employ someone now from the EU when there is no idea about the future and resident rights?


I'd expect anyone already in a job will be allowed to stay for as long as they have that job, otherwise there'll be a lot of lawsuits regarding termination of work contracts/compensation.

There should also probably be a reasonable period 'in between jobs' where you still have the right to work (thus take up a new job), because you should have a right of choice of work, which would be impacted if you'd be deported as soon as you leave a job. However as May wants to leave the ECHR, enslavement to your employer may become legal.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2092 on: January 17, 2017, 03:01:27 pm »
The genuine worker was never the real issue for people though was it, it was the 'spongers'.

A likely scenario is, you get a bunch of people arriving in N.I. to claim benefits/healthcare etc, what do you do, refuse them? Likely outcome of that is homelessness, crime rate increases, illegal workers etc. Even in small numbers it would be fairly damaging to an already brittle N.I. economy.

As WLR pointed out, why would peopel travel across the whole of Europe to the UK via RoI/N.I to become an illegal immigrant where they won't be allowed to claim benefits or work, when they can just go to France/Germany legally instead (or indeed remain in RoI if they got that far)?

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2093 on: January 17, 2017, 03:04:23 pm »
In what way though?

A hard border between NI and the Republic would instantly become a dissident terror target. If it becomes a terror target, I would have no doubt that lives will be lost. Regular terror attacks on border stations would inevitably see the Army reintroduced into Northern Ireland.  The reintroduction of the army could see an increase in Republican terror attacks. The resurgence in Republican terror attacks would see a emergence of new (and old) Loyalist terror groups. And once you're in that cycle it's very hard to get out of it... It has the potential to plunge us back into the worst years of the troubles.

The economic effect of managing a civil war would stretch an already stretched UK budget.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2094 on: January 17, 2017, 03:04:55 pm »
I suspect the attitudes towards Brits from Europeans will change.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2095 on: January 17, 2017, 03:08:27 pm »
The reality of the situation:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/01/17/extreme-brexit-this-was-may-s-last-moment-of-control

Quote
Theresa May should enjoy today. It is her final moment of control. Her speech confirmed that Britain was leaving the single market. There would be a free trade agreement with Europe, somehow miraculously agreed during Article 50, and then an “implementation period” to enact the changes after April 2019.

For anyone who believes in staying in the EU, or the single market, or is merely concerned about the government’s grasp of the Brexit issue, today seems like a moment of total failure. The domestic political consensus for hard Brexit seems fixed. May has confirmed it. There is all the reason in the world for despair.

They should resist that temptation. Brexit is a marathon, not a sprint. The key moment is not now, but months from now. Today May announced a plan that she will not be able to deliver.

Her problem is time. Article 50, when she triggers it in March, gives her just two years to complete everything. It's a very long checklist of items.

 FIrst she needs to agree the administrative elements of Brexit, like MEP office payments, who owes what to who, and what to do with EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in Europe. This is the easy part, but even that will take time.

Then she needs to agree a free trade deal, which is highly unlikely to be possible in this time frame. Canada’s deal took seven years and that barely covered services. Britain is a services economy and not only that - it is a financial services economy. Many countries are wary of allowing financial services to penetrate their market. Others will be wary of giving the UK a good deal because Brexit provides an opportunity to bolster their own financial firms. Others might simply be motivated by political anger.

She also needs to get Britain’s domestic legal and regulatory arrangements up to a level where they can handle the duties which used to be done by European bodies. This is a massive operation. In some cases she needs to new regulators, in others to move legal responsibilities to existing ones. She needs trade remedy bodies to handle disputes at the WTO. She needs to set up reciprocal recognition arrangements within the UK economy so that goods made here can be recognised by the EU at the border to allow for frictionless trade.

This is not really possible in two years. And she doesn’t actually have two years. She’s choosing to trigger Article 50 just before the French elections in the spring, which are followed by the German elections in the autumn. It’s likely that only small administrative tasks will be addressed until these two key European players are done with their domestic troubles. So she may well lose the first six months or so. Then any deal will need to be voted on by the European Parliament and Council. That will take the last six months. So in fact she has about a year of clean, full-attention negotiating time to work with.

It's not even clear she'll win those votes. MEPs have been utterly alienated by Britain’s post-referendum rhetoric and billigerence - especially the now-discarded threat to set up lists of foreign workers in firms. They may not play ball. Certainly, we’re going to need a very impressive lobbying operation to make sure they do.

And after all that, a trade deal would need to be ratified. If the Canada example is anything to go by, that involves a veto by all 27 EU member states and even some regional assemblies, like Walloonia in Belgium. And it also involves a vote, as May announced today, in the Commons and the Lords.

This is why experts (you remember them, we used to be keen on  them) said from the start that she urgently needed to extend that two-year window. And it looked for a second like she might have listened today. But then the details emerged. She would not support a ‘transitional’ arrangement. She would only support an “implementation” period. In other words, all the arrangements would be finalised within Article 50. The secondary deal would just give Britain time to get all its regulations and legal bodies in line. Not only does this do nothing to address the need for more time to negotiate. It also places the benefits of the extended period almost entirely on the British side. “The interim arrangements we rely upon are likely to be a matter of negotiation,” May conceeded today. You can say that again.

If no trade deal is reached with Europe - or it is but no agreement is made on a transitional deal - Britain faces a cliff-edge drop out of the single market. That is the consequence of failure. Tariffs will devastate the car and food industry. We will have lines of lorries at Dover winding back to London, because of sudden border controls. Financial services firms will migrate away to the continent. Our regulatory structure will be in chaos, pushing away even more investment. It is the armageddon option. No government in its right mind would allow it.

May knows this. She is about to play a game of chicken with the EU. In the most revealing section of the speech, she said the cliff edge would be “an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe”, whereas for Britain “no deal is better than a bad deal”. In other words, a cliff-edge Brexit is worse for the EU than it is for the UK.

You can imagine what was said to her to convince her of this position. It would be bad for Europe - no bones about it. Eighty per cent of EU financial service transactions happen in London. The Germans sell us loads of cars and would like to continue doing so without tariffs. European leaders want security cooperation to stem the flow of horrific terror attacks in Germany and France. Eastern Europeans want assurances on military help, especially now the election of Donald Trump has cast doubt on the viability of Nato. And all this comes as the EU faces multiple internal and external crisis which push it towards option offering stability. May does have cards to play.

But she appears to have radically overinterpreted these relative strengths. Her position - our position - is still one defined by weakness next to a stronger partner. That is not a statement of pessimism or lack of faith in Britain or any of that nonsense. It is a sober assessment of fact.

As bad as a hard, chaotic Brexit would be for Europe, it would be worse for Britain. Half our trade is with the EU, whereas less than a fifth of the EU’s trade is with us. They are losing a part of their market, we are starting again from Year Zero, completely alone. And even if this imbalance of scale was not pertinent, the EU is not guaranteed to behave rationally. There are emotional political forces at play too. As Michel Barnier, the EU Commission’s chief negotiator, confirmed recently, Britain has to get a worse deal than it would have in the EU, or Brexit serves as a sign of encouragement for everyone else to follow suit. He is not going to deliver on that pledge by rushing through a comprehensive and hugely controversial trade deal for a leaving state and then creating generous “implementation” stages so they can take their time to prepare for it.

And even if all these points did not apply, May is not actually dealing just with the EU as a block, but also with each member state as an individual entity. Imagine the EU as a whole wants to avoid the cliff edge. Even in that unlikely best-case scenario, each country still gets a veto on trade deals: Only one - presumably a country with little trade with Britain - can scupper the whole thing. May’s plan puts the living standards of every British citizen in the hands of the regional assembly in Wallonia.

She is having a Mexican standoff with an opponent she does not understand, amid power dynamics she has not comprehended, for the highest stakes imaginable.

This was her last moment of control. Once Article 50 starts, the brute force of reality will invade the self-interested dream Britain has been having since June 24th. It is easy for May to be popular now and for even some Remainers to be won over. After all, she’s just saying what she wants. Anyone can look firm when not confronted with opposition. But soon she is going to be facing the truth of her predicament, and then views will not be so sympathetic.

As food prices rise due to sterling’s fall, as banks start to shift their operations overseas in a bid to keep passporting, she will look increasingly weak and trapped on the international stage.

There is no guarantee that that situation will play into the hands of those who want to remain, or who desire a soft Brexit. Perhaps it will do the opposite. But those concerned by what is happening should position themselves now for that period, which will start, in all likelihood, after the German election in the autumn. That is when Brexit will be decided. May should enjoy this moment of seeming in control. It’s likely to be the last one she’ll have.

Offline Iska

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2096 on: January 17, 2017, 03:10:57 pm »
Disagree. Immigrants with jobs are still seen by some as stealing 'their' jobs (even if the jobs are highly skilled and the person complaining can just about write their own name), or undercutting wages.
The last bit is undoubtedly true though.  You could argue that the current mess stems from throwing open the borders in 2002, without placing temporary caps on EU migrant workers like France or Germany did.  Wages in Eastern Europe never did catch up with those here, so any moderately-skilled-or-below job in the UK that has become available since 2002 has had a vastly-increased labour supply willing to do it.  Working-class wages in the UK cannot grow in those conditions, and minimum wage is a poor substitute.

I know the overall pie grows bigger as a result, but the extra bits aren't going to your average punter in Sunderland.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2097 on: January 17, 2017, 03:15:34 pm »
The reality of the situation:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/01/17/extreme-brexit-this-was-may-s-last-moment-of-control
Bloody hell.

The pound's going up though, and the stock market's still not tanking.  Can anyone explain for me?

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2098 on: January 17, 2017, 03:18:01 pm »
Bloody hell.

The pound's going up though, and the stock market's still not tanking.  Can anyone explain for me?

A50 hasn't been triggered yet.

We're still in the phase of assuming UK gets everything UK wants.

Just wait.....

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2099 on: January 17, 2017, 03:18:29 pm »
I missed the speech.  Did she explain what she meant by a 'Red, White and Blue' Brexit?  I've been dying to find out what the f*ck she meant by that.  I mean...it couldn't have been a meaningless soundbite, surely?

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2100 on: January 17, 2017, 03:23:19 pm »
Unless article 50 notification is unilaterally revocable and we can reject the deal and then choose between hard brexit or stay in the EU.

There is a body of legal opinion that says that Article 50 can be unilaterally withdrawn. The EU cannot forcibly remove a state, the UK will remove itself from the EU. Of course the actual law is unclear, and there is little case law to give a steer.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2101 on: January 17, 2017, 03:25:50 pm »
Bloody hell.

The pound's going up though, and the stock market's still not tanking.  Can anyone explain for me?

A lot of the bad news is already priced into Sterling, I doubt much of today's speech came as much of a surprise.

Markets were probably at least cheered slightly by talking up trade prospects with the rest of the world, and getting a bit more clarity as to the direction the UK is moving in, even if it isn't a particularly sensible direction.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2102 on: January 17, 2017, 03:28:16 pm »
Oh how fucking depressing this all is...


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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2103 on: January 17, 2017, 03:28:56 pm »
The Interesting thing about this is the sheer lack of coherent reporting by the media.

I find it fascinating that George Orwell could have got it so right - the more people tune in, the more they are misled. How are people supposed to be in a position to judge anything when the state of truth is in constant flux and those truths are forever battling each other for their place. You can say that you could look at somewhere in the middle for what actually is going on, but that's just plain guesswork at that stage.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2104 on: January 17, 2017, 03:30:45 pm »
As WLR pointed out, why would peopel travel across the whole of Europe to the UK via RoI/N.I to become an illegal immigrant where they won't be allowed to claim benefits or work, when they can just go to France/Germany legally instead (or indeed remain in RoI if they got that far)?

That's a fair point, would they have access to the NHS?

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2105 on: January 17, 2017, 03:35:16 pm »
Bloody hell.

The pound's going up though, and the stock market's still not tanking.  Can anyone explain for me?

Some people have said the pound's rise is due to May announcing the Parliamentary votes on the final deal, so hope that there is a way out of all this.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2106 on: January 17, 2017, 03:39:18 pm »
Some people have said the pound's rise is due to May announcing the Parliamentary votes on the final deal, so hope that there is a way out of all this.
In which case we may as well stop listening until that vote, because all that this speech (and any future speeches) is doing is setting out a negotiating position?

Offline west_london_red

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2107 on: January 17, 2017, 03:52:22 pm »

I for one would encourage everyone not to come to this shit can island.

Really depends where your coming from. There are places in the world where even the worst case of Brexit Britain would seem like a paradise and we should try and keep a bit of perspective about that.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2108 on: January 17, 2017, 03:53:56 pm »
Really depends where your coming from. There are places in the world where even the worst case of Brexit Britain would seem like a paradise and we should try and keep a bit of perspective about that.

Yes and there are other places better to go that they could go. So yeah, dont come here. Its shite.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2109 on: January 17, 2017, 03:59:44 pm »
Quote
Her promise of a vote for MPs and peers follows demands from Labour and the Lib Dems, as well as parliament’s committee on Brexit, but Downing street sources made clear that parliament would not be able to stop Britain leaving the EU. That suggests that failure to pass a vote will result in Britain falling back on to the higher tariffs of World Trade Organisation rules.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/17/prime-minister-vows-to-put-final-brexit-deal-before-parliament

So she's going to put her marvellous deal before a parliamentary vote with the options being:
a) take whatever I'm offering
b) completely fuck the country indefinitely

It's almost as well thought out as the original referendum.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2110 on: January 17, 2017, 04:03:54 pm »
The last bit is undoubtedly true though.  You could argue that the current mess stems from throwing open the borders in 2002, without placing temporary caps on EU migrant workers like France or Germany did.  Wages in Eastern Europe never did catch up with those here, so any moderately-skilled-or-below job in the UK that has become available since 2002 has had a vastly-increased labour supply willing to do it.  Working-class wages in the UK cannot grow in those conditions, and minimum wage is a poor substitute.

I know the overall pie grows bigger as a result, but the extra bits aren't going to your average punter in Sunderland.

From personal experience, the wages in the HGV driving industry were driven down as loads of Polish drivers came over and firms paid them less (in some cases half what a driver should be earning), which pushed the wages down. The downside for the firm was that far too many, again from my experience and others drivers I knows experiences, are shit drivers and they did a lot of damage to the trucks and to other peoples property. The agency drivers are the worst as they can have a really shit attitude at times. This has caused a lot of resentment from existing drivers.
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2111 on: January 17, 2017, 04:13:51 pm »
German industry to scale back investment in the UK.

Offline G1 Jockey 4(betfair)

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2112 on: January 17, 2017, 04:18:54 pm »
letting in immigrants boomed the economy.....subprime propped us up compared to most of europe and more kept coming because we had jobs (compared to them)

will say though companies milked subprime...yes some went under but they used the climate to lower wages also.

a job i did before subprime paid 28k....it pays 25k - 30k now which is a fall in real terms 9 years later.
my wage had increased from 2002 -2008.

i know some wages went down...but a lot fo that had to do with the gig economy as well as takign advantage of surplus workers.
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2113 on: January 17, 2017, 04:22:40 pm »
on booming the economy pre subprime and propping it up post subprime.

take the reason away and what happens?

i think we will get the crisis some of the eu got.

we arent no where near as good as the germans manufacturing wise.
they are able to compete with the emerging economies like china and india because they basically produce top quality....it allances out their advatnage fo cost.

we cant compete on costs or quality.
america have exactly the same issue....so they want companies to move to the usa instead of having good trade deals.

we will see how this all pans out .....
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Offline Kop307

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2114 on: January 17, 2017, 04:35:23 pm »
Can someone please explain to me, in really basic terms why the holy mother of fuck, EU countries would sign favourable trade deals with a country who has categorically decided "we're better than you, you are not welcome here, we do not like your club, we do not want your club". But can we have a really nice profitable deal to trade with you please?

Can someone explain how that works.

If I have a Liverpool season ticket - I get some kind of small discount per ticket for being a member. Same with my golf club membership - £500 per year - or £40 per round. YOu get a better deal because you're a member. All really simple. I can't turn around to my golf club and refuse membership but ask for a round for £10 just because I'm special. They'd just tell me to go and fuck myself or pay the membership fee. I could be an idiot, I'm no expert on politics, but trying to negotate with people you've pissed off isn't a great place to start.

I also cannot stand the message it sends by all this - that you're not welcome in this country. Frankly I don't believe anyone has any divine right to anywhere. But I'm very relaxed about this sort of thing. I'd let everyone in, but I'm aware I'm in the minority on that.


Why would EU Countries happily agree a better deal than we had before EU membership? And don't say "AUDI WILL STILL SELL US CARS" - Yes I'm aware - of course they will. That's not the point. The point in English companies selling into the EU will then incur charges, so they'll buy from fellow EU countries to avoid tax, thereofre loss of business. I'm sick to fucking death of hearing that line trotted out.

I'll end this by saying I own my own business and I'll earn more money from Brexit, and I still don't want it.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 04:37:29 pm by Kop307 »
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2115 on: January 17, 2017, 04:46:51 pm »

I also cannot stand the message it sends by all this - that you're not welcome in this country. Frankly I don't believe anyone has any divine right to anywhere. But I'm very relaxed about this sort of thing. I'd let everyone in, but I'm aware I'm in the minority on that.




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« Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 04:49:23 pm by noname »
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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2116 on: January 17, 2017, 04:58:19 pm »
Can someone please explain to me, in really basic terms why the holy mother of fuck, EU countries would sign favourable trade deals with a country who has categorically decided "we're better than you, you are not welcome here, we do not like your club, we do not want your club". But can we have a really nice profitable deal to trade with you please?
My guess: Money, money, loads of money.

May will have to convince the European Commission, the European Parliament AND 27 national parliaments. This is nearly impossible in two years, even for simple things. Many politicians are angry at the UK, and many more simply have much more pressing worries. They would love a good chunk of the London financial sector. Plus, time is not on UK's side. It's a terrible position to negotiate from.

To avoid a complete disaster, I think May will have to pay a huge yearly fee to the EU. I'm sure they will call it something fancy, to give the brexiters some remote chance of saving face, but it will be a fee. Money is just the simplest thing to negotiate with, and May doesn't have much else.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2117 on: January 17, 2017, 05:00:30 pm »
My guess: Money, money, loads of money.

May will have to convince the European Commission, the European Parliament AND 27 national parliaments. This is nearly impossible in two years, even for simple things. Many politicians are angry at the UK, and many more simply have much more pressing worries. They would love a good chunk of the London financial sector. Plus, time is not on UK's side. It's a terrible position to negotiate from.

To avoid a complete disaster, I think May will have to pay a huge yearly fee to the EU. I'm sure they will call it something fancy, to give the brexiters some remote chance of saving face, but it will be a fee. Money is just the simplest thing to negotiate with, and May doesn't have much else.

If I was the EU negotiator, I'd demand £350m per week.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2118 on: January 17, 2017, 05:00:58 pm »
If I was the EU negotiator, I'd demand £350m per week.

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Re: Brexit - What would those in power get out of it? The Fallout Thread..
« Reply #2119 on: January 17, 2017, 05:10:02 pm »
If I was the EU negotiator, I'd demand £350m per week.

I'd ask for that, and then I'd demand that Boris, Frottage and Fuckwitted Pob lookalike Michael Gove get locked in a big red bus with "£350m per week for this shit" written on it and then get driven around middle England in it for the rest of eternity.
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