Topic: General Transfer Discussion about LIVERPOOL FOOTBALL CLUB

[Number 7]

I think FSG's money-ball strategy will be in full effect this transfer window young players with yet un-tapped potential and excellent re-sale value. There will be no marquee signings for large fee's IMHO. I don't think we will bring in any player with a cost of over eighteen million.

FSG have proved that they will splash the cash in Boston for the Red Sox. These are the people that signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year, $142 million contract. And, no matter which way you slice it, they stumped up £35 million breaking our transfer record in their first year in charge.

What I don't know is if their approach has become more conservative after last summer's transfer spending. For the most part that approach didn't yield anywhere near the results they were hoping. A signing like Downing probably cost Commolli his job and provided next to no return in the PL.

This could be another reason why they saw Rodgers as the best fit, because of Rodgers ability to spot a player, thereby giving them value for money on their transfers. This new structure of a team who collectively make a decision about signing a player will enter the equation also, with Rogders having the final say.

What remains to be seen is if they will provide Rodgers the funds to get in a big hitter, if it's the right type of player who fits the model. I don't know if they will do that, or just go the route you suggested, which is to find the hidden gems who are younger players, and have much better re-sale value.

This summer should answer those questions. What does everyone else feel?

[Severely]

Honestly can't see a marquee signing happening. We improved the squad on the whole last year, and I think more than anything, what we need are game changers, but Carroll, Suarez, and Downing were supposed to be the big hitters, and that didn't exactly go to plan. I can see FSG being much more careful with their money, and really only picking up relatively cheap young players with high potential. Is it the right way to go? Maybe. We can't compete with the likes of City and Chelsea in wages or transfer fees, so I suppose looking for potential makes sense. It could be a good while before we reach the highest level again though.

[L666KOP]

This summer should answer those questions. What does everyone else feel?

Net spend sub 20m is what I expect, fully embracing the moneyball philosophy.

[something awful]

Net spend sub 20m is what I expect, fully embracing the moneyball philosophy.

Very pessimistic.

[L666KOP]

Very pessimistic.

Why?
I think the days of buying stars has gone, I think we'll go back to the days of making them.
I have a feeling our owners will become much more pragmatic in the transfer market, which only concerns me if any of the surplus money 'evaporates'.
We need toatal transparency as far as our income/expenditure goes.

[El Ninos Black Eye]

I was talking to John Chapman on twitter who knows his stuff about Belgian Football. I asked him about Suarez and he said that his best position is just off the main striker, he probably wouldn't get a work permit, and he also doubted if he was good enough for Liverpool.

The 15m being quoted seems a bit steep to. 

[DanA]

Why?
I think the days of buying stars has gone, I think we'll go back to the days of making them.
I have a feeling our owners will become much more pragmatic in the transfer market, which only concerns me if any of the surplus money 'evaporates'.
We need toatal transparency as far as our income/expenditure goes.

20m net spend won't get us too far, particularly if we are simultaneously reducing the wage bill. FSG can't have a small net spend, reduced wage bill and then reasonably expect a top four finish.

Surely they are not idiots.

I don't expect there is a defined transfer budget. I have a feeling they'd sanction just about anything if a good target is identified at a good price.

[swordfishtrombone]

FSG have proved that they will splash the cash in Boston for the Red Sox. These are the people that signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year, $142 million contract. And, no matter which way you slice it, they stumped up £35 million breaking our transfer record in their first year in charge.

This could be another reason why they saw Rodgers as the best fit, because of Rodgers ability to spot a player, thereby giving them value for money on their transfers. This new structure of a team who collectively make a decision about signing a player will enter the equation also, with Rogders having the final say.

What does everyone else feel?

Without knowing about the details of the Red Sox finances, I don't think we can look at the headline figures (contracts worth $142m or whatever) and draw any kind of conclusions. Did they substantially increase net spend at the Red Sox, did they pump in any money themselves beyond te purchase price of the club, or did they just reinvest revenues into the club, which is what I suspect.

I also don't think we can necessarily look at Rodgers as a talent spotter. I don't think we know which of the Swansea transfers he had the final say on. Ironically, he walked into a structure at Swansea where the manager didn't have the final say on transfers from what I've read.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/12951141
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18480907

[peachybum]

Net spend sub 20m is what I expect, fully embracing the moneyball philosophy.

Or the club just spending what it can afford given its revenue.

[Number 7]

Honestly can't see a marquee signing happening. We improved the squad on the whole last year, and I think more than anything, what we need are game changers, but Carroll, Suarez, and Downing were supposed to be the big hitters, and that didn't exactly go to plan. I can see FSG being much more careful with their money, and really only picking up relatively cheap young players with high potential. Is it the right way to go? Maybe. We can't compete with the likes of City and Chelsea in wages or transfer fees, so I suppose looking for potential makes sense. It could be a good while before we reach the highest level again though.

Buying cheap young players will be more of a long term project and won't get us back in to the Champions League quickly. If we take that approach will FSG be content knowing full well it could be a few years before we're successful. The fast-track back in to the CL would be to spend big, but there are no guarantees. I'm not sure where we lie between the two.

FSG have stated continuously they want to get back in to the CL quickly. I just don't know how we're going to do it if we're going to make 3 or 4 signings that will have the transfer budget spread out evenly. That's why this summer should answer a lot of these questions about how realistic our goals are.

[swordfishtrombone]

I don't expect there is a defined transfer budget. I have a feeling they'd sanction just about anything if a good target is identified at a good price.

Don't agree at all. We've got a very clear cap in what we can spend (in total) which will be based on the team's revenues. We won't spend more than we earn, and we'll look to get wages well below 70% of turnover.

[And CouldHe Play!]

20m net spend won't get us too far, particularly if we are simultaneously reducing the wage bill. FSG can't have a small net spend, reduced wage bill and then reasonably expect a top four finish.

Surely they are not idiots.

I don't expect there is a defined transfer budget. I have a feeling they'd sanction just about anything if a good target is identified at a good price.

A large net spend and an increased wage bill didn't get them a top four finish either

[Jeffe]

Some Italian website/newspaper said yesterday that Jovetic has decided to stay at Fiorentina. Here's what Google translate tells me:

There will still be in the future Fiorentina Stevan Jovetic. In recent weeks, sports director Prade had admitted the possibility of a farewell of Montenegro in the case of specific request, the official site now has purple off all kinds of rumors in a statement: "In relation to reports in the media about Stevan Jovetic, The patron Andrea Della Valle insists that the player is not on the market. "

Jovetic had requested information on different clubs, not just Italians. The Chelsea was prepared to offer 20 million pounds, while Inter, Juventus and AC Milan were made ​​of simple surveys.

As we know, this could mean nothing, just thought I'd share it with you.

[johna999]

Depends how you consider a marquee signing. A marquee signing from this league is likely to be £20m+, but from abroad, a ramirez, belhandra (can't spell!) could be between £10 and £20m.

Was Giroude/Podolski marquee signings for Arsenal? Arsenal have shown there is value out there, and chelsea picking up Marin for £8m was also good value.


I reckon we will raise between £10m and £20m in sales. Perhaps even more if Downing is cut loose (though I think he is a Rodgers' type player, very technical), but we will save a fortune in wages as well.

I reckon we will sign as many as 5 or 6 1st team players/1st team squad, a couple in the late teens/early 20s for around £5m each (ie a coates type of range).  A couple around the £8-12m mark (ie siggy) and at least one 'marquee' type signing of between £15 and £20m.

FSG are not daft, they have a history of putting money on the field. They are happy to pay big wages but for your week in week out type players is suarez but not for your likes of Cole, Maxi, Aquilani, Kuyt that do not play that often. They will happy pay a lot of money for a player if he is going to be a regular starter and make a huge difference.

[Number 7]

Don't agree at all. We've got a very clear cap in what we can spend (in total) which will be based on the team's revenues. We won't spend more than we earn, and we'll look to get wages well below 70% of turnover.

Our net spend in the last 3 transfer windows is about £40 million. Isn't that more than what we earn? I can't remember what the exact figures for profits are.

[macca888]

Fuck marquees. Teepees are where its all at. It's the festival season.

[Upinsmoke]

I'm not really arsed about a marquee signing. Just the right player for the club. Sure there will be one or more signings aside from gylfi this summer but we don't need a overhaul or a suarez type player.

[Wingman]

Fuck marquees. Teepees are where its all at. It's the festival season.

I'm getting rather sick of hearing the phrase to be honest

[Tepid water]

Aguero is a marquee signing, that sort of player.

It's the kind of player signing that says "bollocks to the rest of you, look who we can afford, look who we can buy"

I can't really remember us doing that since the 80s and when we have done it since then, it's generally gone rather badly.

I want young hungry players, bu I want the right ones, sadly even they cost £20m a pop these days.


Plus, I think we need to be careful talking about a Rodgers type player.

We don't really know what that will be until we see his teams here.  Too many factors to really know what he will do or what type suits him.

[mccred]

Maybe my red glasses are a bit to red but I really don't think were that far off a fourth place finish with what we have. I don't think we were as terrible as some people are making out, we were a team in massive transition. Henderson is only going to improve and Carrol showed us what he's all about once he finally left Newcastle behind. We lost 4th last year (not that it would of meant fuck all) at home. Only two or 3 times did we play well below what should be expected of our players. We just couldn't score, it almost became like a jinx in the end, take Arsenal, they didn't deserve a point let alone all 3, but they had just one player that made the difference, two shots on target 2 goals, we lost. Come the last 2 months the players had given up and Kenny should never of allowed that to happen.
If we can bring in a midfielder who can get around 10 a season, one more forward of a different style to Carrol, who I think will be hitting the net a few more times next year, then I really don't think we need to be spending 40, 50 million.
If Rodgers can get Downing playing to his potential, he'll make a large difference as well instead of the passenger that the team carried last season.
But then again my red glasses may have gotten to red and I can't see that were fucked. But Chelsea will be in massive transition next year with a manager who's totally unproven, even with what they won last year, they got fucking lucky, as we know, sometimes your names just on it! Spuds have just sacked their most successful manager (league wise) in a generation and Arse look as though they could be loosing their best player, being replaced by Poldolski, not half the player of what their losing and without Van Persie, they'd of been about where we were.
I really think Rodgers can get them playing as a team and to their true potential, just hope he can do it quickly. Was half hoping we went out of the Euro's last night cause Gerrard is carrying that team, think he's going to be knackered for the start of the season.
But then again I thought Kuyt might get a one year extension 2 days after we sold him! LOL. So who knows? But I'm fairly positive about next season, don't think we'll put in a challenge for the title, but 2nd, 3rd and 4th are all there for the taking. Be nice if we became the 12th man again, but that ain't going to happen any time soon.

[maqu006]

Various reports in Italian media that Liverpool have made an offer of 15 million euro for Borini. Roma, who own 50%, only want to pay 4 million (total valuation 8 million). PSG and Hamburg also interested but have not matched offer.

[gaijin_lfc]

Agree we aren't quite off as far as many believe, but we definitely need enhancements. As its been said, we have plenty of squad players who can keep things ticking over, keep the score lines from getting too negative and win us possession. What we need is another game changer. A Suarez like player, with flair and the ability to create something out of nothing. We get one of those, we're absolutely in contention for a top 4 finish. We have arguably the best back five in the league and arguably the best defensive midfielder. It's a good place to start, no question.

As we stand now, I don't think we'll find ourselves in the top 4 without a lot of luck on our side.

To follow the Shankly analogy, we have a bunch of people to carry the piano, but we don't have the guys to play it.

[Dubred]

If he could just stay injury free...

Signs are looking good judging from last season to be fair.

He made 34 appearances for us, 27 in the league.

His injuries were unfortunately ones that could not be forseen, i.e. the rib breaks (2 if I'm not mistaken?!)

He was hounded by similar injuries in the past but touch wood, going on last season they seem to be behind him.

But 27 league appearances is brilliant none the less.  Minimum of the same next season would be brilliant.

He really does make a huge difference to the team. 

For me, the most important defender to keep hold of.  And it sounds like he is more than happy to stay.

We are very very lucky!

[Jeffe]

Various reports in Italian media that Liverpool have made an offer of 15 million euro for Borini. Roma, who own 50%, only want to pay 4 million (total valuation 8 million). PSG and Hamburg also interested but have not matched offer.

Weird if true. £12-13M for a striker is more than I expected but I do like Borini so I'll be very happy if this turns out to be true...

[arcticus]

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/wenger-bets-an-ice-cream-that-van-persie-stays-put-7866569.html

The Arsenal captain has been targeted throughout Euro 2012 by the Italian champions, who dispatched Pavel Nedved to talk to the 28-year-old. They have also opened tentative negotiations with the Liverpool striker Luis Suarez and Borussia Dortmund's Robert Lewandowski.

 

[barnseysleftpeg]

What type of striker is Borini? from his youtube vids he looks like a poacher but you don't get an accurate representation from youtube.

Thanks

[And CouldHe Play!]

Were we never interested in Giroud? I know he hasn't performed at an exceptional level consistently ie several seasons, but I think 12m is going to be a great buy for Arsenal.

[Gnurglan]

Maybe my red glasses are a bit to red but I really don't think were that far off a fourth place finish with what we have. I don't think we were as terrible as some people are making out, we were a team in massive transition. Henderson is only going to improve and Carrol showed us what he's all about once he finally left Newcastle behind. We lost 4th last year (not that it would of meant fuck all) at home. Only two or 3 times did we play well below what should be expected of our players. We just couldn't score, it almost became like a jinx in the end, take Arsenal, they didn't deserve a point let alone all 3, but they had just one player that made the difference, two shots on target 2 goals, we lost. Come the last 2 months the players had given up and Kenny should never of allowed that to happen.
If we can bring in a midfielder who can get around 10 a season, one more forward of a different style to Carrol, who I think will be hitting the net a few more times next year, then I really don't think we need to be spending 40, 50 million.
If Rodgers can get Downing playing to his potential, he'll make a large difference as well instead of the passenger that the team carried last season.
But then again my red glasses may have gotten to red and I can't see that were fucked.

But then again I thought Kuyt might get a one year extension 2 days after we sold him! LOL. So who knows? But I'm fairly positive about next season, don't think we'll put in a challenge for the title, but 2nd, 3rd and 4th are all there for the taking. Be nice if we became the 12th man again, but that ain't going to happen any time soon.

Had it been just last season, I might have agreed. But for the past three years, we have been 6th-8th. We are behind the best sides. We are not a top four team anymore. We haven't got that kind of quality. Three years of league performances show that.

And as much as we'd like Downing, Henderson and Carroll to shoot us to glory, we have seen very little of it so far. We'd need something like 20-25 goals to come from those three. That is - the return we had from Kuyt and Maxi the season before last. It's not an unfair request/demand. That's what we need (and that's what we missed last season).

Then we need another 15 goals+ from Suarez. It sounds easy, but it's not. Last season we scored 47 goals. We need about 70 goals for a top four finish. That's an increase in goals by 50% from 11/12. And it's ~10 goals more than we scored in 10/11 and 09/10. It's a very big task.

This is why I think we have the back five, Lucas, Gerrard and Suarez. The rest are backup players. Maxi and Bellamy could have a case to be first pick if they were to continue with 1 goal every four games they play. Unfortunately for us, Bellamy can't really play every game and they are not the future.

In a best case scenario for us, I think we're three first pick players short of a top four challenge.

[ghost1359]

Net spend sub 20m is what I expect, fully embracing the moneyball philosophy.

In today's market that's unrealistic imo. To make that work we'd have to make atleast 10 million back in player sales & I can't see where we'll recoup that money. Even if we sold Cole, Adam & Maxi I can't see us getting 10 million.

[Jeffe]

What type of striker is Borini? from his youtube vids he looks like a poacher but you don't get an accurate representation from youtube.

Thanks

That's what he is. A lot of his goals come from being in the right place at the right time.

[SP]

Our net spend in the last 3 transfer windows is about £40 million. Isn't that more than what we earn? I can't remember what the exact figures for profits are.

Transfer fees do not give an indication of what a player costs. The total cost of a player includes wages, agents' fees, bonuses and all of that stuff.

Our transfer fee net spends have been healthy, but they have been accompanied by a slashing of the wage bill as some of the peculiar high salaries that were acquired as a result of the unique spending constraints of the previous regime have been moved on.

The ball park figure of what the club can afford to spend on player improvement is probably slightly more than the debt interest payments of the last regime (we have more commercial revenue so there is a bit more cash). When the salary bill has stabilised, that may well equate to a net spend of £20-£30M.

We know that the books will balance. We know FSG are not going to pump money in. Where it gets split between wages and transfer fees is the great unknown.

[Henry Gale]

Don't think I have ever seen Borini play, According to Wiki he signed on loan for Roma with an option to buy for €7m, So it seems his value has risen quite a lot since then, Was he that good at Roma?

[BarryCrocker]

£20m net spend??? Jesus, we spent more than that on Carroll, Suarez and Downing. We need at least 2 players, to spend less than £10m on either would add nothing to our team, especially when we are focusing on attack.

[ghost1359]

Where it gets split between wages and transfer fees is the great unknown.

But generally wages correlate with transfer fees anyway, if you're making a 30 million pound signing more often than not they'll be on high wages. The past couple of seasons we've been mugs & over paid, considerably for a few players.

[Juliman]

Wow, 200 pages of getting absolutely nowhere.

[SP]

In today's market that's unrealistic imo. To make that work we'd have to make atleast 10 million back in player sales & I can't see where we'll recoup that money. Even if we sold Cole, Adam & Maxi I can't see us getting 10 million.

But the reduction in the wage bill may well be significant. £100K a week is over £5M per year. Thus selling Cole for nothing could save the club £10M over 2 years. Changing a squad player for a younger player who earns £20k a week less would save £1M per year.

Selling Dirk did not raise much of a transfer fee, but would have saved a lot of money in wages. Transfer fees are the headline figures, but are likely to be far less significant than wages in the money that the club recoups from player sales.

[Red Dane]

Various reports in Italian media that Liverpool have made an offer of 15 million euro for Borini. Roma, who own 50%, only want to pay 4 million (total valuation 8 million). PSG and Hamburg also interested but have not matched offer.

Do you have any link?

[Henry Gale]

Wow, 200 pages of getting absolutely nowhere.

What do you expect? everything is been done behind closed doors. It's what the fans want isn't it?

[Jeffe]

Don't think I have ever seen Borini play, According to Wiki he signed on loan for Roma with an option to buy for €7m, So it seems his value has risen quite a lot since then, Was he that good at Roma?

If I'm not mistaken that €7M would get 50% of Borini, which is owned by Parma. So the total value of the player would be around €14M.

[Packalacky]

Transfer fees do not give an indication of what a player costs. The total cost of a player includes wages, agents' fees, bonuses and all of that stuff.

Our transfer fee net spends have been healthy, but they have been accompanied by a slashing of the wage bill as some of the peculiar high salaries that were acquired as a result of the unique spending constraints of the previous regime have been moved on.

The ball park figure of what the club can afford to spend on player improvement is probably slightly more than the debt interest payments of the last regime (we have more commercial revenue so there is a bit more cash). When the salary bill has stabilised, that may well equate to a net spend of £20-£30M.

We know that the books will balance. We know FSG are not going to pump money in. Where it gets split between wages and transfer fees is the great unknown.

We have slashed wages?

Didn't the last financial report show that we Increased our wage bill not reduce it? I'll try to find a link to it.