Author Topic: Do We still have an outside chance to make it into Top 4? (Read 26092 times)

MagicB8all · « **Reply #520 on:** March 14, 2012, 04:22:02 AM »

Other than a cup we're not likely to do better than last year. So the question is does a cup count a progress or good fortune?

Personally I think we've been going backward for 2.5 seasons and the brakes were applied 3-4 seasons ago.

Indian Scouser · « **Reply #521 on:** March 14, 2012, 04:31:26 AM »

I've tried to look objectively at our chances by looking at the points per game of all the teams around us and how the teams have finished in previous seasons.
Looking at the results so far this season and extrapolating them for the whole season, we have:

     Points PPG Predicted Total

Tottenham 53 1.89 72
Arsenal 52 1.86     71
Chelsea 49 1.75     67

In order to get 4th place if all three of them perform as they have been performing all season, we will have to win all our games, which would take us to 72 points.
However, Arsenal and Tottenham have been known to be bad finishers while Chelsea have traditionally been strong finishers. So, looking at the PPG from last season:

First 28 Last 10 Difference

Tottenham 1.71 1.4 -18%
Arsenal 2.04 1.1 -46%
Chelsea 1.82     2.0 +10%

If they continue this trend, Tottenham will have a PPG of 1.55 which would give them 16 points in the last 10 games. Arsenal will have a PPG of 1 which would give them 10 points, and Chelsea will have a PPG of 1.92 which would give them 19 points. The table would then look like this:

Tottenham      69
Chelsea         68
Arsenal         62

In this case, we need to win all but one of our games to get 4th place.
But Chelsea are nowhere near where they were last year, and with all the problems they have, we can expect them to drop more points. Also, it would be too much to expect Arsenal to collapse again like they did last season. Looking at the 2009-10 season, Arsenal had a PPG of 2.07 in the first 28 games, and 1.7 in the last 10 games which equates to an 18% drop. If they follow this more realistic trend, they will have a PPG of 1.52 which will give them 15 points in the last 10, and get them to a total of 67 points.
Even if all these events go our way, we still need to win 9 out of our last 10 games to get to 4th. It's extremely unlikely but teams have gone on such runs before.

Walshy7 · « **Reply #522 on:** March 14, 2012, 04:36:11 AM »

10 out of 10 and we will do it, simple as that

Caligula? · « **Reply #523 on:** March 14, 2012, 04:37:41 AM »

I don't expect Arsenal to blow a 10 point lead at this stage of the season. We've still got trips to Norwich, Swansea and Newcastle where I could see us dropping points. We should still give it our best shot though. Who knows, stranger things have happened.

Indian Scouser · « **Reply #524 on:** March 14, 2012, 04:41:13 AM »

Quote from: Walshy7 on March 14, 2012, 04:36:11 AM

10 out of 10 and we will do it, simple as that

The longest consecutive win streaks in the Premier League since 1999. (minimum 6 consecutive wins)

13 - Arsenal (01/02)

11 - Manchester United (08/09)
11 - Manchester United (99/00)

10 - Liverpool (05/06)
10 - Chelsea (05/06)

9 - Chelsea (06/07)
9 - Manchester United (05/06)
9 - Arsenal (03/04)

It's been done before, so it''s not impossible. If we pull it off though, it has to be one of the biggest comebacks ever.

libby_lfc · « **Reply #525 on:** March 14, 2012, 06:29:29 AM »

There's always hope, we've staged big comebacks before. We're Liverpool, we don't give up.

Borninbethlehem · « **Reply #526 on:** March 14, 2012, 06:32:16 AM »

No, just no.

libby_lfc · « **Reply #527 on:** March 14, 2012, 06:34:42 AM »

No harm in believing mate. That's what being a supporter is about. We probably won't do it, but I can't just sit here and say that we definitely won't, I believe in the club and the boys too much for that.

BMW · « **Reply #528 on:** March 14, 2012, 06:35:02 AM »

Quote from: Borninbethlehem on March 14, 2012, 06:32:16 AM

No, just no.

It's more a case of will Arsenal fall to peices and we win every match?

I think not.

Grobbelrevell · « **Reply #529 on:** March 14, 2012, 09:10:22 AM »

Quote from: Rusty on March 13, 2012, 10:22:40 PM

Have we got a chance? Mathematically yes.

Will we actually get into the top 4? Realistically no.

I agree, stop torturing yourself, I'd be happy with a consistent string of performances and results between now and the end of the season, and reaching at least the semis of the FA Cup. If we win it and manage 6th I'd see the season as successful enough - though obviously with plenty of room for improvement.

I agree with all of that.

If we finish sixth, whilst i'll be a little disappointed, I don't think we will have either under-achieved or over-achieved considering the teams that we are competing with, who - lets not forget - were starting from much stronger positions than ourselves.

Zawsze Red! · « **Reply #530 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:01:42 AM »

We win all season 11 games, is people really thinking we win last 10 games? Optimistic is fine thing but real world is not change by this.

4 place is too far away, this season. But players must be motivate and play for team. I am angry when see great efforts in game with MUFC or Everton but then see lazy and slow play against bad team. Problem for us not winning in big game when motivation is easy, problem is winning in game against bad team like Bolton. MUFC is in number 1 place because always play to end and know what must do for to win with bad teams. Liverpool in number 7 place because not have same thinking.

This is not problem of corrupted referee or luck or MUFC friends helping (this is excuse and not help according to my opinion), this is problem of mental and motivation. If Liverpool learn to win in match with bad teams then we have got easy 4 place next season, maybe better. If only great motivation in game with Everton and MUFC then same as now, 5 or 6 or 7 place.

ABJ · « **Reply #531 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:03:05 AM »

As much as I would love to be proved wrong, we have no chance.

Billy The Kid. · « **Reply #532 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:10:25 AM »

We will come 6th. And the reason we will come 6th is because there are 5 teams currently better than us in the league. And the reason they are better than us is because 4 of our last major signings have not progressed the squad as much as they should have, given the amount invested in them. Its that simple really. And unless its seriously readdressed in the summer, we will again struggle to return to Champions League football.

L666KOP · « **Reply #533 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:14:21 AM »

Rinse and repeat. FFS

Mathmetics are the 'toehold' of a desperate man.
It will not happen.
But, saying that, if I'd have been offered 6th behind Utd, City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spuds at the start of the season I'd have taken it.
Throw in the Carling cup and it's a bonus.

However, and here in lies the issue. I't's the MANNER in which the season has panned out that really fucking grates people, myself included, and results in the furore that enveloped the site post-Sunderland.
Top 4 seems to have been a poisoned chalice all season, only the Manchester clubs seem to want to cement a place. And when we see that, it becomes even more frustrating given the 'form' we have shown.

PJLFC1 · « **Reply #534 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:17:42 AM »

Quote from: Walshy7 on March 14, 2012, 04:36:11 AM

10 out of 10 and we will do it, simple as that

9 Wins and 1 Draw and 4th will be ours , i said we would finish with 70pts so got to keep to it while its still possible , another 4 wins then a draw then finish with 5 more wins taking us to 20 wins 10 draws and 8 loses , but will settle for the FA Cup if not , infact no i want both , come on Red Men

eirwen · « **Reply #535 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:17:46 AM »

Quote from: Grobbelrevell on March 14, 2012, 09:10:22 AM

I agree with all of that.

If we finish sixth, whilst i'll be a little disappointed, I don't think we will have either under-achieved or over-achieved considering the teams that we are competing with, who - lets not forget - were starting from much stronger positions than ourselves.

I feel like we have underachieved, because Arsenal and Chelsea are both much weaker than before, and there were many games this season which we could have won. While not having a clinical striker in the team is the biggest problem and one that we can only fix in the summer, there were games that I feel the players simply haven't tried their best. Motivation is a big problem as well as quality imo.

RedinExile · « **Reply #536 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:17:59 AM »

Quote from: Magic8Ball on March 14, 2012, 04:22:02 AM

Other than a cup we're not likely to do better than last year. So the question is does a cup count a progress or good fortune?

Personally I think we've been going backward for 2.5 seasons and the brakes were applied 3-4 seasons ago.

On the same page mate.

carra4president87 · « **Reply #537 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:22:04 AM »

Given our form all season, in a word, no. $:-\$

Billy The Kid. · « **Reply #538 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:22:13 AM »

Quote from: L666KOP on March 14, 2012, 10:14:21 AM

But, saying that, if I'd have been offered 6th behind Utd, City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spuds at the start of the season I'd have taken it.

Really? You'd have been content to finish behind Arsenal if offered it in August would you? After they sold their 2 best players in Fabregas and Nasri? And after we had invested over 65 million in attacking players?

AriGold · « **Reply #539 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:24:56 AM »

You just never know with Liverpool

HarleyKewell7 · « **Reply #540 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:26:53 AM »

No, purely for the reason that our league form has been very poor all season and we'll face better teams than Everton, making ten out of ten very difficult.

RichardM · « **Reply #541 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:27:36 AM »

We're down but not out. Still looking very unlikely but stranger things have happened. Obvious optimism after our comfortable win but I can't help but feel we deserve to be in the top 4, if it weren't for our finishing (I suppose you could argue that we don't deserve to be there because of it actually).

drpepe · « **Reply #542 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:27:57 AM »

Quote from: Billy The Kid. on March 14, 2012, 10:22:13 AM

Really? You'd have been content to finish behind Arsenal if offered it in August would you? After they sold their 2 best players in Fabregas and Nasri? And after we had invested over 65 million in attacking players?

yep that ^^

(isn't it more like 80+ million including suarez, carroll?)

drpepe · « **Reply #543 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:29:13 AM »

Quote from: NealFrom25Yards on March 13, 2012, 09:55:08 PM

It's on.

it's no.

stewil007 · « **Reply #544 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:30:33 AM »

As with all the teams vying for the 3rd to 7th placings, each is as likely to put in a winning streak as they are to go on a losing streak - we've lost 3 in a row as have arsenal (new year) and spurs, chelsea have been up and down with no consistency and newcastle are in there on merit.

2 weeks ago, nobody would have said that arsenal would have been 2 points behind spurs, but it has happened.

It is possible and as the season comes to a climax, we should do everything we can to try and get as close as we can - the pressure is off us now, nobody expects us to do it, we definitely have at least Europa football, so go out there and see what happens.

My personal feeling is that we will come short probably by a margin of about 5 points

Red James · « **Reply #545 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:36:49 AM »

No chance. We don't deserve to be top four with our poor league performance this season and the other clubs fighting for the top four places have much better squads bar Newcastle and therefore have a better chance of finishing there. We've fallen too far now and would have to rely on a major fuck up from those above us to even be in with a chance.

Kochevnik · « **Reply #546 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:42:32 AM »

Quote from: Magic8Ball on March 14, 2012, 04:22:02 AM

Other than a cup we're not likely to do better than last year. So the question is does a cup count a progress or good fortune?

Personally I think we've been going backward for 2.5 seasons and the brakes were applied 3-4 seasons ago.

I'm sorry, but this is pure poppycock.

If you don't think we're better off, overall, as a club than we were a year ago, your head needs examining. Sure, we've just gone through a disappointing patch, but we're MILES ahead of a year ago. We had an absolute tonne of dross on the wage bill, no left back, and a very shaky defense overall. We've disposed of Jovanovic, Konchesky, Joe Cole, among others, and while you might justifiably feel that we haven't done the best in the transfer market we're certainly better for the additions of Suarez and Enrique.

The fact is, we went backward for the last two years of G & H's time, and then suffered very badly with Hodgson. Since Kenny came in, we've been going forward. We haven't surged forward as fast as we would like, but we're nowhere near "going backward."

.Mike · « **Reply #547 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:48:49 AM »

Quote from: Red_Rich on March 14, 2012, 03:35:52 AM

Why not? I'll tell you why not. Do you realise that we haven't won 3 league games on the bounce all season? We've only won back-to-back league games on three occasions. And you think we can go 10 games on the bounce? Not a chance.

We'll do well to get 20 from 30 .... meaning Arsenal and Chelsea only need 11 from 30 and 14 from 30 respectively.

Baz Smythe · « **Reply #548 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:52:10 AM »

Consistent performances like last night and there is always a chance.

With a midfielder running into the box like that for the rest of the season then we are challengers, any going back to how we've been last few weeks then no, we'll be lucky to make 7th

gollne · « **Reply #549 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:52:39 AM »

Quote from: BMW on March 14, 2012, 06:35:02 AM

It's more a case of will Arsenal fall to peices and we win every match?

I think not.

More likely that Spurs collapse to be honest.

Should just aim to win as many as we can and try to win the FA-cup. We'll end up as high as we deserve in the end. Top 4 will be really hard however 5th is doable imo and would be ok with me.

viteslesrouges · « **Reply #550 on:** March 14, 2012, 10:56:03 AM »

Quote from: Red James on March 14, 2012, 10:36:49 AM

No chance. We don't deserve to be top four with our poor league ~~performance~~ results this season and the other clubs fighting for the top four places have much better squads bar Newcastle and therefore have a better chance of finishing there. We've fallen too far now and would have to rely on a major fuck up from those above us to even be in with a chance.

Fixed that for you.

muyuu · « **Reply #551 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:08:10 AM »

Betfair gives us about 6% (15.5 back 17 lay). That sounds about right to me. A bottling contest from both Arsenal and Spurs is not out of the books, but still we need to clearly outperform either Chelsea or Newcastle on top of that.

Not going to happen.

scatman · « **Reply #552 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:12:40 AM »

No, look at Arsenal's form, for all the stuff about them being bad at the end of the season, they've won 5 on the trot, and are right up behind Spurs. We should have beaten them and Spurs at home, as well as many other teams of course. It's difficult but I'd rather the team just concentrated on winning every game not even having a thought about fourth at all, if they do that then fourth might become a possibility. Let's get to wembley again..twice..hopefully against those bitter fucks last night in one of those too.

Niru Red4ever · « **Reply #553 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:14:29 AM »

I had more or less given up after the Sunderland defeat. A cup double would do fine by me. Besides Europa league would mean giving the younger player chances; which may benefit us in the long run.

Quote from: Indian Scouser on March 14, 2012, 04:41:13 AM

The longest consecutive win streaks in the Premier League since 1999. (minimum 6 consecutive wins)

13 - Arsenal (01/02)

11 - Manchester United (08/09)
11 - Manchester United (99/00)

10 - Liverpool (05/06)
10 - Chelsea (05/06)

9 - Chelsea (06/07)
9 - Manchester United (05/06)
9 - Arsenal (03/04)

It's been done before, so it''s not impossible. If we pull it off though, it has to be one of the biggest comebacks ever.

Our 05/06 team were not world beaters; so I guess there's a slim hope. And I am still waiting for the RVP injury (not that I would want anybody to get injured, a sprain or niggle which kept him out of a few matches would do fine).

Adamski LFC · « **Reply #554 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:34:59 AM »

Hi

Didn't want to start a new post but if we presume that Barcelona don't win the Champions League and one of the English threesome do, the CL qualification goes to fifth, doesn't it?

That would mean finishing ahead of Chelsea and Newcastle on today's figures, but is more likely, IMHO, than 4th.

jediwarrior · « **Reply #555 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:39:05 AM »

Quote from: Adamski LFC on March 14, 2012, 11:34:59 AM

Hi

Didn't want to start a new post but if we presume that Barcelona don't win the Champions League and one of the English threesome do, the CL qualification goes to fifth, doesn't it?

That would mean finishing ahead of Chelsea and Newcastle on today's figures, but is more likely, IMHO, than 4th.

No it don't drop to fifth. It Chelsea came fifth and won the Champions League then whoever is in 4th would drop to the Europa League, but it don't work the otherway round.

eirwen · « **Reply #556 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:41:48 AM »

Quote from: Adamski LFC on March 14, 2012, 11:34:59 AM

Hi

Didn't want to start a new post but if we presume that Barcelona don't win the Champions League and one of the English threesome do, the CL qualification goes to fifth, doesn't it?

That would mean finishing ahead of Chelsea and Newcastle on today's figures, but is more likely, IMHO, than 4th.

Oh dear.

We won't get CL next year. Just accept it.

Camarero25 · « **Reply #557 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:44:34 AM »

Absolutely no chance you crazy bastards.

buttersstotch · « **Reply #558 on:** March 14, 2012, 11:46:48 AM »

Quote from: jediwarrior on March 14, 2012, 11:39:05 AM

No it don't drop to fifth. It Chelsea came fifth and won the Champions League then whoever is in 4th would drop to the Europa League, but it don't work the otherway round.

I'm pretty sure UEFA scrapped that rule after it allowed us to re-enter in 05-06.

dernaroy · « **Reply #559 on:** March 14, 2012, 12:03:20 PM »

Quote from: buttersstotch on March 14, 2012, 11:46:48 AM

I'm pretty sure UEFA scrapped that rule after it allowed us to re-enter in 05-06.

No they made the rule very clear after we entered in 05/06 - that was a one off.

A leagues predetermined number of entries to the CL cannot change. If Chelsea win the Champions League (not sure if srs) then they take up one of the four Premier League spots no matter where they finish. The other 3 go to the top 3 teams in the league or further down if Chelsea occupy one of those spots.

Also to the original poster. If the English threesome win the CL? Do you even follow football?