Because everything is based on assumptions and the assumptions is only increasing.
1. Newcastle will automatically fade away.
2. Arsenal will have their "annual" breakdown
3. Harry court trial will leave Spurs in bad position
4. Terry to create a bad environment at Chelsea
5.Luís André de Pina Cabral e Villas-Boas to lose support
These only seem to be increasing and probably why I feel we will not be at 4th position.
I don't think it's as straightforward as that. I think it's very much in the balance at the moment, more so than it looked a couple of weeks ago. Of the four "contenders" there's very little between them, and I think we've as good a chance as anyone, certainly it is still all to play for.
Newcastle have done well, really. But a lot of clubs have been in a similar position at this stage. Very, very few ever hold on to it. They have huge games coming up, away to Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea and home to us and Man City, not to mention a derby match still to go too. There's no doubt that they will drop some points.
It's not a question of them "automatically fading away" they look like being there or thereabouts, but just assuming that they'll pick up 15 points from games against five of the other six clubs in the top seven makes no sense at all.
Their record against the "big 6" so far is as follows:
NU 0 - Ars 0
NU 2 - Spurs 2
MC 3 - NU 1
MU 1 - NU 1
NU 0 - Chl 3
LFC 3 - NU 1NU 3 - MU 0
P: 7 W: 1 D: 3 L: 3 pts: 6
So the assumption they will drop points is entirely reasonable. Doesn't mean we will automatically take advantage, but they aren't going to be getting the maximum from most of those games. Even if they are able to improve on their performances so far, you're still looking at 5 or 6 points from five of the remaining fourteen games.
Arsenal have had their breakdown, it's been going on all season. If anything, they are due a better run of results. But we are two behind them with a game in hand, so long as we can match their results, we're in with a good chance. Their run in looks easier than Newcastle's, but they still play us, Spurs, Newcastle, Man City and Chelsea. So long as we beat them at Anfield (and if we don't, we can't complain about not getting 4th, it's that simple) they'll either take points off Chelsea, or drop points themselves.
Spurs seem to be safe in 3rd, if we want 4th it's in our interest for them to go on a great run, (starting next weekend, as a result of being utterly humiliated by LFC) as they can take points away from all of our rivals for that place. Obviously they will fold against Man Utd, they seem to enjoy it.
There is, however, a very real possibility that their manager will be in prison before the end of the month. That is a fascinating prospect, but it would be frustrating if we lost points to them just before he went inside and they then collapsed against all of our rivals.
If Terry hasn't already created a bad atmosphere at Chelsea, he won't do it now. He doesn't need to. Chelsea's run-in is terrifying, with 5 of the "big 7" in their last 10 games.
The point about these run-ins isn't just that we can hope our rivals will drop points, it is that we know for a fact at least some, and probably all will. When Chelsea, Newcastle, or Arsenal play each other one side has to drop points
Now none of this means that we will finish 4th, but it does mean that we've got as good a chance as anyone if we play consistently, and keep notching up points, especially against our direct rivals.