Topic: Can we get fourth?

[liverpooll]

How? Yesterday was Arsenals first win in 5 against a shocking Blackburn team who were down to 10 men.....We just need to concentrate on the next game and that is Spurs. If we win that, we go 5th (potentially 1 point behind 4th depending on Chelsea's result today)

All if's, but Newcastle wont keep up this pace, and Arsenal look very poor defensively and rely heavily on RVP....IMO, its between us and Chelsea

Because everything is based on assumptions and the assumptions is only increasing.

1. Newcastle will automatically fade away.
2. Arsenal will have their "annual" breakdown
3. Harry court trial will leave Spurs in bad position
4. Terry to create a bad environment at Chelsea
5.Luís André de Pina Cabral e Villas-Boas to lose support
etc

These only seem to be increasing and probably why I feel we will not be at 4th position.

[Gnurglan]

F*ck me you looked at our squad at the start of the season and thought 4th was a minimum! How anybody could look at our squad man for man and our spending and think we're anything but the 6th best team in the league is beyond me...unless they're a mentalist.

Anything above 6th this season would be OVERachieveing by Kenny and the team. It's still possible though given how bad Chelsea and Arsenal have been. I predicted we'll finish sixth before the start and i'm fairly confident we'll finish sixth. Depends on how the cup runs effect the team.

4th was a very realistic target. We can still get it. I don't agree with this need to lower the targets. Fine if we had had to dismantle the team. But we were aggressive. Most have been eager to praise the squad for being so much better. We finished last season well. We made a lot of changes to the squad and spent good money. It's only natural to expect us to finish higher. We didn't do all the work to stand still.

If we end up 6th, it's a disappointment. Doesn't mean we need to stop believing in what we do, nor does it mean we have to let Kenny go. That is perhaps the main mistake people make. Missing out on a target doesn't mean everything needs to change. We played well in the second half of last season, under Kenny. We improved and ended up in 6th. We got players of our own choice for over 100M in, during a 6 month period. If we end up in the same position, it's not realistic to think it can be classed as a step forward. You'd have to expect more. In particular as the owners themselves said the aim was top four.

[FlashingBlade]

I think its in our own hands, howver that will require a top class set of results running to the end of the season, starting with the next 3...I think 7/6 points is minumum with the crucial wins against Spurs/Arse its no good taking points of United if we dont against either of the other two.

With Chelsea and Newcastle still to play and that the 3...4? above us all will drop points..we need to be in  position to take advantage,recent results against the likes Wigan, Blackburn, Stoke and Bolton have undermined what should have been a stronger position...but its sill within our grasp...

[stewil007]

there are 45 points left for us to play for, we are in with a shout of any of the top positions....some more likely than others it has to be said, but until mathematically impossible we should aim for the top, and when we can no longer win the damn thing we re-assess what is possible.  with the exception of Manchester City, we can damage all of those currently above us.  So lets get our sledge hammer out and cause some carnage and see what comes out the other side.

[redk84]

see how that fucker Fergie mentioned a referee giving a bad decision...and at a game against liverpool in the same sentence as he gave his post-match interview last night?

prep work to bully the referees for our next match against them?

paranoid? maybe.

or hint of truth in that? maybe.

 

[Haemogoblin]

we won't

i'm fairly confident we'll finish sixth

I feel we will not be at 4th position

No offence lads, but posting this sort of stuff in the hours leading up to a game that could well put the cat among the pigeons in regards to the CL spots, really? Why the absolute defeatist certainty? Put that aside for a moment eh.


Plenty of things look extremely unlikely until they just happen, often through belief and force of will. Modern-era Liverpool supporters shouldn't need telling that, fuck. The situation we're in now isn't even comparable. I'll accept that we might not get 4th, prepare for that eventuality, but that's as far as it goes until the crunch games are done and dusted. Nothing to be certain about yet either way.

[Coolie High]

F*ck me you looked at our squad at the start of the season and thought 4th was a minimum! How anybody could look at our squad man for man and our spending and think we're anything but the 6th best team in the league is beyond me...unless they're a mentalist.

Anything above 6th this season would be OVERachieveing by Kenny and the team. It's still possible though given how bad Chelsea and Arsenal have been. I predicted we'll finish sixth before the start and i'm fairly confident we'll finish sixth. Depends on how the cup runs effect the team.

You can't say your overachieving when you've spent 100 million in two transfer windows, Newcastle  finished 12th last season and managed to climb 7 places by spending a far less amount than we did.

[Adamski LFC]

No offence lads, but posting this sort of stuff in the hours leading up to a game that could well put the cat among the pigeons in regards to the CL spots, really? Why the absolute defeatist certainty? Put that aside for a moment eh.


Plenty of things look extremely unlikely until they just happen, often through belief and force of will. Modern-era Liverpool supporters shouldn't need telling that, fuck. The situation we're in now isn't even comparable. I'll accept that we might not get 4th, prepare for that eventuality, but that's as far as it goes until the crunch games are done and dusted. Nothing to be certain about yet either way.

Damn right, we have a good squad some of the under-performing players are coming back into form and we are yet to go on a run so far this campaign.  Finishing xth in the Premier League is a probability up until May, with us getting 1st a long shot, but anywhere behind that is mathematically possible.  There are things such as shock results as we have already seen this season, could happen to anyone and with Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle they are all liable for a slip-up or three.  We just need to take advantage.

[gorgepir]

You can't say your overachieving when you've spent 100 million in two transfer windows, Newcastle  finished 12th last season and managed to climb 7 places by spending a far less amount than we did.

Spending is irrelevant. There is no trophy for best return on spending. Arsenal would have won that trophy if it existed.


We are not over or under achieving. We are inconsistent, and until we get a little consistency going we will not be challenging for top 4. Lets see what happens today and in the weekend.

[Red number seven]

4th was a very realistic target. We can still get it. I don't agree with this need to lower the targets. Fine if we had had to dismantle the team. But we were aggressive. Most have been eager to praise the squad for being so much better. We finished last season well. We made a lot of changes to the squad and spent good money. It's only natural to expect us to finish higher. We didn't do all the work to stand still.

If we end up 6th, it's a disappointment. Doesn't mean we need to stop believing in what we do, nor does it mean we have to let Kenny go. That is perhaps the main mistake people make. Missing out on a target doesn't mean everything needs to change. We played well in the second half of last season, under Kenny. We improved and ended up in 6th. We got players of our own choice for over 100M in, during a 6 month period. If we end up in the same position, it's not realistic to think it can be classed as a step forward. You'd have to expect more. In particular as the owners themselves said the aim was top four.

This.

Spurs and City have come hard over the last 3 years and may have ended the formality of our top 4 finish even if the chaos of Hicks and Gillett hadn't put the club back 10 years. We need to get back into the European Cup asap, for prestige, finance and recruitment reasons, but we need to realise that this is now a difficult proposition.

4th is a target, and a realistic one, but was never by any means guaranteed. We are in the race for 4th, already in one Wembley final and a game away from another 1/4 final. We have knocked both Manchester teams and Chelsea out of cups. We have won at City, Chelsea (twice) and Arsenal this season.

It should not be seen as a "make or break" for the manager, coaching staff, players etc. We need to appreciate that, although a fair bit of cash has been spent, a lot of it has been spent on (as yet) unrealised potential - this is FSG's model, ike it or not. We need to remember where we were in early Feb 2011 and realise the difference a new coaching team, manager and decent corporate structure has made - a year ago you'd have laughed at the possibility of finishing 4th. The progress has been very, very quick.

The problem I always have with targets in football is that they can be too black and white and not achieving them always seems to lead to calls for managerial change. I suggest acceptable progress towards targets is the important metric for a manager, and there is no doubt Kenny and his team have achieved that.

[Zelnaga]

Spending is irrelevant. There is no trophy for best return on spending. Arsenal would have won that trophy if it existed.


We are not over or under achieving. We are inconsistent, and until we get a little consistency going we will not be challenging for top 4. Lets see what happens today and in the weekend.

Ah! The sugar coated answer! Spending means nothing! You may think its irrelevant but people with a bit of common sense and a bit of football knowledge, would know that spending is a big thing and despite some fans here sticking their finger in their eat and pretending we didn't spend a lot of money. We have!

WAIT! But we only spent x amount on profit!!! We never spent 110 million?

What a lame excuse. To have our board sanction even that much for Kenny to spend is amazing enough, and doesnt matter what we think, but im pretty sure they might will decide whether we under or over achieved. Most people bitch and moan about our previous regime being bad? Rafa couldnt use the money he got from selling Alonso etc .... (fan boys ... this is not a Rafa come back, im only taking about the finances).

[Roy of the rovers]

4th was a very realistic target. We can still get it. I don't agree with this need to lower the targets. Fine if we had had to dismantle the team. But we were aggressive. Most have been eager to praise the squad for being so much better. We finished last season well. We made a lot of changes to the squad and spent good money. It's only natural to expect us to finish higher. We didn't do all the work to stand still.

If we end up 6th, it's a disappointment. Doesn't mean we need to stop believing in what we do, nor does it mean we have to let Kenny go. That is perhaps the main mistake people make. Missing out on a target doesn't mean everything needs to change. We played well in the second half of last season, under Kenny. We improved and ended up in 6th. We got players of our own choice for over 100M in, during a 6 month period. If we end up in the same position, it's not realistic to think it can be classed as a step forward. You'd have to expect more. In particular as the owners themselves said the aim was top four.

Agreed

4th was very realistic, though obviously not guaranteed. We were caught out by two things IMO: the emergence and sustained efforts of Newcastle, and the fact that we have taken a long time to work through a pattern of play that gets something from our forwards.

Whether the squad is better or not is to be judged on the performances. I don't see it - and we've not had Europe to contend with. The squad is deeper and younger, for sure. And more 'promising'. But if the squad is genuinely better and we end up worse off, then there's only one conclusion to draw from this: we went backwards

[gorgepir]

Ah! The sugar coated answer! Spending means nothing! You may think its irrelevant but people with a bit of common sense and a bit of football knowledge, would know that spending is a big thing and despite some fans here sticking their finger in their eat and pretending we didn't spend a lot of money. We have!

WAIT! But we only spent x amount on profit!!! We never spent 110 million?

What a lame excuse. To have our board sanction even that much for Kenny to spend is amazing enough, and doesnt matter what we think, but im pretty sure they might will decide whether we under or over achieved. Most people bitch and moan about our previous regime being bad? Rafa couldnt use the money he got from selling Alonso etc .... (fan boys ... this is not a Rafa come back, im only taking about the finances).

Spending is irrelevant. As long as we are not bankrupt I could care less how much is spent on who. The only thing I care about is trophies and winning the league. As long as we are not spending it like Man City and Chelsea were that is (going bankrupt because we don't have any money coming in but sugar daddy money)

And it's not like we are living in a time when Arsenal's excellent financial model of running a club is nonexistent. Having great financial policies but not winning anything. Or maybe you prefer Tottenham who think EL is a waste and their entire mentality is top 4 (and don't care that they have won a grand total of 3 trophies the past 30 years). Or you would like us to be like Newcastle and consider it overachieving when you are in the top 5.

We have spend 110m? Well guess what Man City have spent 400m+ and they are just competing for the EPL this year.

[Gnurglan]

The problem I always have with targets in football is that they can be too black and white and not achieving them always seems to lead to calls for managerial change. I suggest acceptable progress towards targets is the important metric for a manager, and there is no doubt Kenny and his team have achieved that.

True. It doesn't have to be black or white, but people often see it that way. Which is unfortunate.

The problem is we try to say that we're making fantastic progress, the squad is so much better etc, but we don't dare to set up an ambitious target for the fear that we may not reach it. Because then we think the manager is off and we don't want that. So let's lower the target so he stays for sure...

It's much better if we say we aim to finish top four and then, if we don't, take an honest look at the situation and evaluate where we went wrong. Replacing the manager could be one outcome, but it could also be that our conclusion is we've been too dependent on Lucas, Gerrard and Suarez, players who have been out for various reasons, for too long. It could be just one or two, or many reasons. But it's much healthier to try and expose our weaknesses than it is to pretend all is well. The little I know of FSG tells me they are patient. They listen to reason rather than tabloids and pundits. I see little risk sticking with the top four aim. We know the owner's point of view. I'd be surprised if the team's own aim for the season was top six. Seems to me it's the supporters who have the lowest targets.

[ryatnalkar]

Whether the squad is better or not is to be judged on the performances. I don't see it - and we've not had Europe to contend with. The squad is deeper and younger, for sure. And more 'promising'. But if the squad is genuinely better and we end up worse off, then there's only one conclusion to draw from this: we went backwards

Looking at the first half of the year, I would agree. But I have to say, you are being unfair in judging as there is a whole 15 games to be played in the league and with us being in a cup final and potential progress to one more in the other cup. If we were to judge, we should at the end of the season. If we miss out on 4th and have won 2 cups, the fans who are unhappy are well, too addicted to Champions League, because winning 2 cups in a year, would be success IMO.

Also, the quality of games we produce in the last 15 games would also be important in the judging process. That part of this argument over last page or two, I completely agree.

[shawnk]

see how that fucker Mr Alex Ferguson mentioned a referee giving a bad decision...and at a game against liverpool in the same sentence as he gave his post-match interview last night?

prep work to bully the referees for our next match against them?

paranoid? maybe.

or hint of truth in that? maybe.

 

To cover Webb's ass IMO.

[stewil007]

Looking at the first half of the year, I would agree. But I have to say, you are being unfair in judging as there is a whole 15 games to be played in the league and with us being in a cup final and potential progress to one more in the other cup. If we were to judge, we should at the end of the season. If we miss out on 4th and have won 2 cups, the fans who are unhappy are well, too addicted to Champions League, because winning 2 cups in a year, would be success IMO.

Also, the quality of games we produce in the last 15 games would also be important in the judging process. That part of this argument over last page or two, I completely agree.

also progress made this season without success, may reap rewards in the years to come

[Barry Banana]

WAIT! But we only spent x amount on profit!!! We never spent 110 million?

What a lame excuse.

Not really.  We lost high value players from the squad.  Image Torres hadn't gone to shit and he was still here.  Our net spend would be much higher - but we would be much much better.

You can't simply say we spent Ł110m without considering sales.

[stevieheighway]

Yesss, the Anfield Wrap is up......LFC the only one of my many addictions that I cant (and dont want to) control

edit: wrong thread

[Nessy76]

Because everything is based on assumptions and the assumptions is only increasing.

1. Newcastle will automatically fade away.
2. Arsenal will have their "annual" breakdown
3. Harry court trial will leave Spurs in bad position
4. Terry to create a bad environment at Chelsea
5.Luís André de Pina Cabral e Villas-Boas to lose support
etc

These only seem to be increasing and probably why I feel we will not be at 4th position.

I don't think it's as straightforward as that. I think it's very much in the balance at the moment, more so than it looked a couple of weeks ago. Of the four "contenders" there's very little between them, and I think we've as good a chance as anyone, certainly it is still all to play for.

Newcastle have done well, really. But a lot of clubs have been in a similar position at this stage. Very, very few ever hold on to it. They have huge games coming up, away to Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea and home to us and Man City, not to mention a derby match still to go too. There's no doubt that they will drop some points.

It's not a question of them "automatically fading away" they look like being there or thereabouts, but just assuming that they'll pick up 15 points from games against five of the other six clubs in the top seven makes no sense at all.

Their record against the "big 6" so far is as follows: 

NU 0 - Ars 0
NU 2 - Spurs 2
MC 3 - NU 1
MU 1 - NU 1
NU 0 - Chl 3
LFC 3 - NU 1
NU 3 - MU 0

P: 7 W: 1 D: 3 L: 3 pts: 6

So the assumption they will drop points is entirely reasonable. Doesn't mean we will automatically take advantage, but they aren't going to be getting the maximum from most of those games. Even if they are able to improve on their performances so far, you're still looking at 5 or 6 points from five of the remaining fourteen games.

Arsenal have had their breakdown, it's been going on all season. If anything, they are due a better run of results. But we are two behind them with a game in hand, so long as we can match their results, we're in with a good chance. Their run in looks easier than Newcastle's, but they still play us, Spurs, Newcastle, Man City and Chelsea. So long as we beat them at Anfield (and if we don't, we can't complain about not getting 4th, it's that simple) they'll either take points off Chelsea, or drop points themselves.

Spurs seem to be safe in 3rd, if we want 4th it's in our interest for them to go on a great run, (starting next weekend, as a result of being utterly humiliated by LFC) as they can take points away from all of our rivals for that place. Obviously they will fold against Man Utd, they seem to enjoy it.

There is, however, a very real possibility that their manager will be in prison before the end of the month. That is a fascinating prospect, but it would be frustrating if we lost points to them just before he went inside and they then collapsed against all of our rivals.

If Terry hasn't already created a bad atmosphere at Chelsea, he won't do it now. He doesn't need to. Chelsea's run-in is terrifying, with 5 of the "big 7" in their last 10 games.

The point about these run-ins isn't just that we can hope our rivals will drop points, it is that we know for a fact at least some, and probably all will. When Chelsea, Newcastle, or Arsenal play each other one side has to drop points.

Now none of this means that we will finish 4th, but it does mean that we've got as good a chance as anyone if we play consistently, and keep notching up points, especially against our direct rivals.

[Schmidt]

Ah! The sugar coated answer! Spending means nothing! You may think its irrelevant but people with a bit of common sense and a bit of football knowledge, would know that spending is a big thing and despite some fans here sticking their finger in their eat and pretending we didn't spend a lot of money. We have!

WAIT! But we only spent x amount on profit!!! We never spent 110 million?

What a lame excuse. To have our board sanction even that much for Kenny to spend is amazing enough, and doesnt matter what we think, but im pretty sure they might will decide whether we under or over achieved. Most people bitch and moan about our previous regime being bad? Rafa couldnt use the money he got from selling Alonso etc .... (fan boys ... this is not a Rafa come back, im only taking about the finances).

What a load of shit, you say spending is not irrelevant, and then completely disregard income from player sales? You're blatantly choosing whatever numbers you think make your argument valid.

The fact is, we've spent money on players we expect to improve over the next few years. The ideal for this season was to win a trophy and get into the top 4, if we do that then excellent, but no serious questions need to be asked if we don't as the squad clearly still has some gaps that need filling and the team is still settling.

[stevedo]

Still a long way to go. If we don't win tonight fourths not over.
As an aside, how many years do the UEFA ranking points get calculated over? Wondered about seeding possibilities for next year. (Yes, getting waaaaay ahead, just an idle thought).

[Vidocq]

Still a long way to go. If we don't win tonight fourths not over.
As an aside, how many years do the UEFA ranking points get calculated over? Wondered about seeding possibilities for next year. (Yes, getting waaaaay ahead, just an idle thought).

of course its over if we dont win tonight

[MobileBayRed]

It is irritating to hear people say that our squad isn't "good" enough for 4th.

Including all matches, our record against the other top 6 is: 6 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws

Man City:  1 home draw, one bad away loss, one away win, one home draw
Man Utd:  1 home draw, one home win
Spurs:   1 bad away loss
Chelsea:  2 away wins
Arsenal: 1 away win
Newcastle:  1 home win

Only losses away at Spurs and away at Man City, granted we did not compete well in those matches.

I will agree that we may not have been consistant enough in the early season for top four, but quit feeding me this crap about talent level.  Our talent level is clearly equal to that of the other top 6 teams.

[something awful]

It is irritating to hear people say that our squad isn't "good" enough for 4th.

Including all matches, our record against the other top 6 is: 6 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws

Man City:  1 home draw, one bad away loss, one away win, one home draw
Man Utd:  1 home draw, one home win
Spurs:   1 bad away loss
Chelsea:  2 away wins
Arsenal: 1 away win
Newcastle:  1 home win

Only losses away at Spurs and away at Man City, granted we did not compete well in those matches.

I will agree that we may not have been consistant enough in the early season for top four, but quit feeding me this crap about talent level.  Our talent level is clearly equal to that of the other top 6 teams.

Unfortunately there's 13 other teams to play, and we've struggled with them.

[Raz]

Let's take one game at a time shall we.

[MobileBayRed]

Unfortunately there's 13 other teams to play, and we've struggled with them.

Somewhat agreed.  We have struggled to put them away.  Several of those games we dominated, just didnt finish our chances.  If we don't finish 4th it wont be because we lacked talented players, it will be becuase we didnt handle our business when we had the opportunities.  The talent is there for top four.

[Kochevnik]

Amazing to think that if we win tonight fourth becomes a reasonable target again.

As poor as we have been at times, I suppose we have to be thankful that Arsenal and Chelsea have been almost equally poor.  I honestly stopped even thinking about it after the Bolton loss, but with Chelsea dropping a lot of points since then, we're right back in it.  I think we need to win tonight to really have a decent chance, but I'm amazed that we even have that.

[Zelnaga]

What a load of shit, you say spending is not irrelevant, and then completely disregard income from player sales? You're blatantly choosing whatever numbers you think make your argument valid.

The fact is, we've spent money on players we expect to improve over the next few years. The ideal for this season was to win a trophy and get into the top 4, if we do that then excellent, but no serious questions need to be asked if we don't as the squad clearly still has some gaps that need filling and the team is still settling.

Er ... no I didnt. Look at the guy I quoted. Yeah? Right. Next time read before posting, or say nothing at all.

[SalifSaysShutIt]

If we can win 2 of our next 3 we should be in decent position. Ideally 7 points from the next 3, that would put us in real nice position, but this is a tough run of games coming we're in the middle of, with all the games against City, Utd, Spurs and Arsenal. It feels like we are gathering steam at the right time though, so it's still all to play for.

[RedinExile]

I don't think it's as straightforward as that. I think it's very much in the balance at the moment, more so than it looked a couple of weeks ago. Of the four "contenders" there's very little between them, and I think we've as good a chance as anyone, certainly it is still all to play for.

The point about these run-ins isn't just that we can hope our rivals will drop points, it is that we know for a fact at least some, and probably all will. When Chelsea, Newcastle, or Arsenal play each other one side has to drop points.

Now none of this means that we will finish 4th, but it does mean that we've got as good a chance as anyone if we play consistently, and keep notching up points, especially against our direct rivals.

Good post mate, cheers.

[AnfieldRD19]

Because everything is based on assumptions and the assumptions is only increasing.

1. Newcastle will automatically fade away.
2. Arsenal will have their "annual" breakdown
3. Harry court trial will leave Spurs in bad position
4. Terry to create a bad environment at Chelsea
5.Luís André de Pina Cabral e Villas-Boas to lose support
etc

These only seem to be increasing and probably why I feel we will not be at 4th position.

add on that hopefully van persie gets injured too

[DanA]

Where would we be sitting had we not missed a penalty? My feeling is we'd have and extra 5 or so points.

[dnkw]

4 at least - Wigan and Sunderland.

[spinaltapped]

add on that hopefully van persie gets injured too

It's absolutely morally reprehensible to wish a player gets injured because he's doing well, you bell.

[liverpooll]

Lost all the advantage gained from weekend with this draw.

[Zlenpasha]

As we were.

[exiledintheusa]

Should have won. (again)

[eirwen]

No.
We won't. Not when we are so toothless going forward.

[Carlos Alberto]

No.