Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table - OP edited 2/1/12 (Read 53031 times)

Nessy76 · « **Reply #360 on:** January 5, 2012, 02:33:50 AM »

For me, the biggest continuing surprise here is Chelsea's poor form. While they were never likely to keep up with the top 2, their position in this table shows just how many points they've squandered. With several players off to the African Nations Cup, they could easily see their place in the real table become just as dangerous.
They seem to have Cahill all but signed, but with only Sturridge available and in form up front, it's hard to see them climbing back up any time soon without further investment, or a real change of fortunes.

edmundljs · « **Reply #361 on:** January 5, 2012, 02:34:17 AM »

Seems like we need our "friendly" neighbours to do us a favour by beating Spurs. And they will drop to our level? Looks so different to the actual league table though.

SeanAxion · « **Reply #362 on:** January 5, 2012, 02:42:20 AM »

This was stated by an earlier poster, but reading that graph makes me think that top 4 really could be beyond us, purely on the basis that we're running out of chances to make up ground. This in turn means that we can't move any higher up Prof's table as points can only be dropped.

On another note I'm quite happy to have Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs to come at home. the table doesn't show that

jimmyjr86 · « **Reply #363 on:** January 5, 2012, 03:07:18 AM »

Quote from: SeanAxion on January 5, 2012, 02:42:20 AM

This was stated by an earlier poster, but reading that graph makes me think that top 4 really could be beyond us, purely on the basis that we're running out of chances to make up ground. This in turn means that we can't move any higher up Prof's table as points can only be dropped.

On another note I'm quite happy to have Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs to come at home. the table doesn't show that

agree to an extent but bear in mind we're close enough to the teams around us. In thoery we have the easier run in so we should be able to challenge were we are in relation to Chelsea and Arsenal. Using the alternative table means we should get more points in the second half of the season which would put us in good stead.

We have not been playing brilliantly (well scoring) in the first half of the season but this could change. A few good reaults in the next few games, add to this maybe some fresh faces and an energised Suarez against tired defences and you never know. We should using the theory of this table pick up more points than those around us so lets see how it goes. we are by no means out of the running for fourth and even third.

ryatnalkar · « **Reply #364 on:** January 5, 2012, 03:57:37 AM »

Quote from: SeanAxion on January 5, 2012, 02:42:20 AM

This was stated by an earlier poster, but reading that graph makes me think that top 4 really could be beyond us, purely on the basis that we're running out of chances to make up ground. This in turn means that we can't move any higher up Prof's table as points can only be dropped.

On another note I'm quite happy to have Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs to come at home. the table doesn't show that

No, we are still above the 71 points line, the pars are made for a title winning team. As long as we are above the 71 point line we are fine. We wont keep up with the 90 point line, we will keep slipping up, but imagine if 71 was a horizontal line on that plot, you would think we are still in a position to get there.

Edit: And the table kind of does show that Arse, Chelsea have tougher fixtures left than us as we are higher in this table and still lower on points than those meaning we have been playing difficult games while Chelsea, Arse have been playing the easier, if that makes sense. But of course it doesnt directly show what you were saying.

edmundljs · « **Reply #365 on:** January 5, 2012, 03:59:36 AM »

Quote from: SeanAxion on January 5, 2012, 02:42:20 AM

This was stated by an earlier poster, but reading that graph makes me think that top 4 really could be beyond us, purely on the basis that we're running out of chances to make up ground. This in turn means that we can't move any higher up Prof's table as points can only be dropped.

On another note I'm quite happy to have Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs to come at home. the table doesn't show that

There's always 2 ways to look at the situation. Prof's model actually tries to beat your view of us unable to move higher up the table, as we do not need to. Staying at par from now onwards is definitely good enough for top 4 because Arsenal Chelsea and Spurs can only drop more points with more difficult fixtures. As far as we all can see that we are unable to move up the table, I can see our rivals moving down the table as well.

DutchRed · « **Reply #366 on:** January 5, 2012, 11:06:00 AM »

It's a huge advantage that we don't have an African player in the side. Kalou, Mikel, Drogba, Essien, Chamakh and Gervinho are all off.

DutchRed · « **Reply #367 on:** January 5, 2012, 11:13:40 AM »

Quote from: edmundljs on January 5, 2012, 02:34:17 AM

Seems like we need our "friendly" neighbours to do us a favour by beating Spurs. And they will drop to our level? Looks so different to the actual league table though.

That's that you get for having had the top teams(Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Chelsea) at home. They had just 5 par 1's in twenty, Liverpool had had nine.

This model is basically about form away from home as every home game should be won and are par 3's.

To play to the 90 points mark, you'll have to beat the three new boys and numbers 14-17 away from home. The other twelve away games are par 1.

Liverpool has had a tougher start than Spurs in this model, with only three games remaining classified as 'par 1' with Spurs having seven. Hence the huge difference.

emitime · « **Reply #368 on:** January 5, 2012, 01:07:56 PM »

Quote from: DutchRed on January 5, 2012, 11:06:00 AM

It's a huge advantage that we don't have an African player in the side. Kalou, Mikel, Drogba, Essien, Chamakh and Gervinho are all off.

No doubt part of Suarez's contract. Just another benefit of him playing for us.

edmundljs · « **Reply #369 on:** January 6, 2012, 02:17:48 AM »

Quote from: DutchRed on January 5, 2012, 11:13:40 AM

That's that you get for having had the top teams(Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Chelsea) at home. They had just 5 par 1's in twenty, Liverpool had had nine.

This model is basically about form away from home as every home game should be won and are par 3's.

To play to the 90 points mark, you'll have to beat the three new boys and numbers 14-17 away from home. The other twelve away games are par 1.

Liverpool has had a tougher start than Spurs in this model, with only three games remaining classified as 'par 1' with Spurs having seven. Hence the huge difference.

Hence Prof's model gives me the extra bit of faith.

Prof · « **Reply #370 on:** January 11, 2012, 10:18:04 PM »

Updated after the Spurs v Everton match:

Prof · « **Reply #371 on:** January 11, 2012, 10:35:49 PM »

These are the next seven fixtures. The 1 pointers are highlighted.

Our next three matches are massive considering the four to follow them. They are also the sort of games we have been failing to win this season. This is the acid test of our top-four challenge. If we drop points in a couple of these games, I don't think we'll be able to make up the ground.

(Credit PJG for the fixture image)

DanA · « **Reply #372 on:** January 12, 2012, 05:30:36 AM »

19/21 needed

Faarrrk that is going to be very tough

xavidub · « **Reply #373 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:16:38 PM »

2 blown already.

Last call for Fourth Place Flight. Would Liverpool FC please get out of the fucking bar and check in for this Flight.

aggerdoo · « **Reply #374 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:22:56 PM »

Quote from: xavidub on January 14, 2012, 06:16:38 PM

2 blown already.

Last call for Fourth Place Flight. Would Liverpool FC please get out of the fucking bar and check in for this Flight.

this needs a banner. great comment

DyingAtheist · « **Reply #375 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:23:00 PM »

I genuinely believe we can still do it, not sure why, but we can.
Arsenal are due to implode and Chelsea aren't exactly playing well. And we've still yet to play both at Anfield (Which, hopefully by then, won't be a fortress against ourselves)

-Q- · « **Reply #376 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:25:54 PM »

Quote from: DyingAtheist on January 14, 2012, 06:23:00 PM

I genuinely believe we can still do it, not sure why, but we can.
Arsenal are due to implode and Chelsea aren't exactly playing well. And we've still yet to play both at Anfield (Which, hopefully by then, won't be a fortress against ourselves)

We can do it. But it is getting increasingly more difficult. Long way to go yet, but we have to start winning games at home - and hope the other two continue to struggle

Zaffarious · « **Reply #377 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:26:44 PM »

if we win 5 and draw united away in our next 6 then we are in with a shout. if we want to be in the cl we need to be picking up points now. its getting to the point of no return soon. once we played arse at home if we are 8 or more points of 4th then its over.

DutchRed · « **Reply #378 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:50:19 PM »

Ladies and gentlemen, we are now officially as bad as Arsenal. Goodbye to fourth place and I don't think we deserve it either.

Prof · « **Reply #379 on:** January 14, 2012, 06:51:41 PM »

That's the fifth time this season we've had back-to-back sub-par results. We haven't had a run of three or more ... yet.

Teams are coming to Anfield knowing they can play for a nil-nil. Our next two matches are aways against weaker teams. I certainly hope these will suit us better.

Stoke are always a tough side to play and we know where we are in relation to the top teams. We don't have the variety of attacking players they have. We either need some pacey ball carriers to move defenders out of position (by beating a man) or some players who are able to play fast combinations. The best teams actually have both, but we have neither in sufficient numbers. The key word is speed. Either moving the ball with speed, or carrying the ball with speed.

It's clear we are still a long way short, but we have now established a very solid looking team defensively. The next stage of the development of the team needs to happen in the summer, we need to accept that any chance of top four rests on small margins of error and clean sheets. We don't have many goals in this team, and we are unlikely to buy the quality we need this window.

Prof · « **Reply #380 on:** January 16, 2012, 10:14:58 PM »

Blinis · « **Reply #381 on:** January 16, 2012, 10:38:36 PM »

As always, "what if..."

Anyway, thanks Prof, very relevant alternative PL table !

EDIT : haven't realized how much next week-end will be important for the fourth spot, with City vs. Spurs and Arsenal vs. United.

Garcepticon · « **Reply #382 on:** January 17, 2012, 11:54:26 AM »

Quote from: Blinis on January 16, 2012, 10:38:36 PM

As always, "what if..."

Anyway, thanks Prof, very relevant alternative PL table !

EDIT : haven't realized how much next week-end will be important for the fourth spot, with City vs. Spurs and Arsenal vs. United.

I get the feeling that Chelsea are our main contenders and if Torres hits form (as people are suggesting he might) we could be in real trouble.

LiverpoolKopKings · « **Reply #383 on:** January 17, 2012, 06:58:37 PM »

and how wise was it to write newcastle off?

Nessy76 · « **Reply #384 on:** January 17, 2012, 08:00:42 PM »

Quote from: LiverpoolKopKings on January 17, 2012, 06:58:37 PM

and how wise was it to write newcastle off?

They still have very few results "above par" this season. They've just been very consistent. Don't expect them to stay there come the end of the season.

johnny74 · « **Reply #385 on:** January 19, 2012, 01:00:04 PM »

Quote from: Nessy76 on January 17, 2012, 08:00:42 PM

They still have very few results "above par" this season. They've just been very consistent. Don't expect them to stay there come the end of the season.

They've got a lot less pressure than we have and I expect them to continue doing well as long as they can keep people fit. And they've bought another good striker. They are as good at picking up points as anyone if they have everyone available.

If we don't change our form this season I fear they will finish above us.

DanA · « **Reply #386 on:** January 21, 2012, 03:39:15 PM »

Two dropped points for Chelsea. We've just got to execute this next 4 weeks. Tough draw with no chance to do better than par

xavidub · « **Reply #387 on:** January 21, 2012, 07:58:23 PM »

We were expecting to win today yes? so -3 points?

Anyway, one win in 6 is not top four form so it's moot at this stage.

xavidub · « **Reply #388 on:** January 21, 2012, 07:59:01 PM »

Quote from: DutchRed on January 14, 2012, 06:50:19 PM

Ladies and gentlemen, we are now officially as bad as Arsenal. Goodbye to fourth place and I don't think we deserve it either.

Ah, the good old days when we were still as bad as Arsenal

Prof · « **Reply #389 on:** January 21, 2012, 11:54:37 PM »

I'll upload the table etc after tomorrow's games, but we are now 2 points under the 71 point line. We would need to par our next four matches to get back onto this line. 10 points from 12.

LiverpoolKopKings · « **Reply #390 on:** January 22, 2012, 08:12:19 AM »

this is not an ostrich statement. But should we just stop analyzing our trajectory. The more I look at it the more it looks like I am seeing a close dear relative dying a slow very painful death. As usual we have put ourselves in a 3 side situation where one side there is a tall thick impenetrable wall, the other there is a deep abyss and the last is just a hole wide enough to pass a tiny insect through, and all the time all 3 are closing in and the only way for us to get out is doing bigger and bigger miracles to try and widen that hole. I now it's a rant but really the only thing that matters now is just win one game, any game, just win it.

xavidub · « **Reply #391 on:** January 22, 2012, 08:47:48 AM »

Quote from: Prof on January 21, 2012, 11:54:37 PM

I'll upload the table etc after tomorrow's games, but we are now 2 points under the 71 point line. We would need to par our next four matches to get back onto this line. 10 points from 12.

Wolves away 1 point
Spurs home 1 point
Utd away 0 points
Everton home 3 points

Looks more likely to me. Better open up a 60 point line

Prof · « **Reply #392 on:** January 22, 2012, 11:27:30 PM »

I think the next five fixtures will determine our season. No team has grabbed hold of fourth yet, but we have a par of 13 for the next five matches. If we can get close to that, we have a chance for fourth.

For the record, Newcastle are -16, I can't be bothered to add them back on the graph or into the league table.

PJG · « **Reply #393 on:** January 23, 2012, 10:11:03 AM »

Quote from: Prof on January 22, 2012, 11:27:30 PM

I think Spurs have man utd at home for the 27th fixture and then Everton away

. Doesn't make that much of a difference. At this point we just need to lose less points compared to Arse and Chelsea.. and possibly Spurs.. Given that when we drop points the majority of it will be -2s and -3s compared to Spurs and Chelsea who will mostly lose -1s, combined with the fact we struggle against lower teams, it's going to be bloody tough $:-\$

Blinis · « **Reply #394 on:** January 23, 2012, 10:20:05 AM »

Quote from: PJG on January 23, 2012, 10:11:03 AM

it's going to be bloody tough $:-\$

Deffo, especially considering our poor form at home... Spurs , Everton and Arsenal are for real.

Prof · « **Reply #395 on:** January 23, 2012, 12:08:52 PM »

Quote from: PJG on January 23, 2012, 10:11:03 AM

I think Spurs have man utd at home for the 27th fixture and then Everton away . Doesn't make that much of a difference. At this point we just need to lose less points compared to Arse and Chelsea.. and possibly Spurs.. Given that when we drop points the majority of it will be -2s and -3s compared to Spurs and Chelsea who will mostly lose -1s, combined with the fact we struggle against lower teams, it's going to be bloody tough $:-\$

I haven't checked any of the fixtures. Just copied your fixture list. Can you post an accurate version of your fixture list for the remaining games please?

PJG · « **Reply #396 on:** January 23, 2012, 09:54:41 PM »

Quote from: Prof on January 23, 2012, 12:08:52 PM

I haven't checked any of the fixtures. Just copied your fixture list. Can you post an accurate version of your fixture list for the remaining games please?

Prof · « **Reply #397 on:** January 23, 2012, 11:05:07 PM »

Quote from: PJG on January 23, 2012, 09:54:41 PM

Thanks

Ada069 · « **Reply #398 on:** January 31, 2012, 10:16:23 PM »

not a bad night, City drop 3 points, Chelsea drop 2. We stay the same. Lets hope Arsenal drop tomorrow.

jimmyjr86 · « **Reply #399 on:** February 1, 2012, 12:28:07 AM »

Quote from: Ada069 on January 31, 2012, 10:16:23 PM

not a bad night, City drop 3 points, Chelsea drop 2. We stay the same. Lets hope Arsenal drop tomorrow.

was a par 1 for city. Still a pretty good night for us. There is still massive hope for us to finish strongly we just need to be consistent