Topic: Antepost 2011/12

[-Paddy-]

Let's get the motherfucking ball rolling.

On the Porto Champions League choo choo at 25/1, providing they don't sell anyone. Don't think the price will change a lot when it's announced in E-Bola Falcao's staying or whatever.

No idea what price I'll get, but as long as he's longer than Zlatan, Eto'o, Di Natale and Cavani, Pazzini to be top scorer in the Serie A. As much as I hate to say it, Cavani's not going to get you 30 goals every season, and I'm hoping Di Natale's going to have another incredible year (Said last year he won't do that again, how wrong was I!) With Zlatan, he'll improve on his 14 this term, but he's got the luxury of not being the focal point anymore, and having Cassano/Pato to ease the load. At Inter it was pretty much him to get them goals, no longer the case.

Maicon's gonna get Pazzini 6/7 goals alone, they're a match made in heaven.

[Suarez325]

I might wait untill Villa Boas, Falcao etc sort themselves out before I back Porto.

Paddy Power have already opened their PL top scorer market. Suarez at 14s or maybe Dzeko at 30s.

[DangerScouse]

I might wait untill Villa Boas, Falcao etc sort themselves out before I back Porto.

Paddy Power have already opened their PL top scorer market. Suarez at 14s or maybe Dzeko at 30s.

No offense mate, but what in lords name did you see from Dzecko since January to make you think he could be anywhere near top goal scorer next season? Even if Tevez leaves he'll most likley rotate with Bolatelli up front, just can't see it personally.

[Suarez325]

No offense mate, but what in lords name did you see from Dzecko since January to make you think he could be anywhere near top goal scorer next season? Even if Tevez leaves he'll most likley rotate with Bolatelli up front, just can't see it personally.

Not a lot but watching him in Germany he is definitely a player.

At 30-1 I do see some value and it may be that he just needed time to bed in but agree with you that hes been shit so far.

[Lethal]

I'm already on Porto Champions League aswell

On Malaga 7/1 to finish top 4 with Unibet. Ruud now up top aswell and hopefully they get in Piatti aswell. Really fancy them with many of the other challengers for that spot in transition/have no manager/need to sell best players.

[-Paddy-]

I'll give you 7/1 RVN doesn't get injrued this season.

Don't think goals will be a problem anyway, Rondon's going to have a big season imo.

[Lethal]

Buonanotte arriving there this summer too. Haven't seen a lot but he's highly rated.

Rondon's been immense recently as has Baptista. Pelligrini influence too. Really like the look of that

[markay_stinkay]

My first bet is Bayern Munich to win the Champions League e/w at 25/1 (1-2 1/2).

Quite happy to rule out:

~ Chelsea (10/1) - You're not gonna turn that club around in one summer and win the CL, no matter how much you want it, Mr Abramovich. Only 10s anyway.
~ Man Utd (10/1) - Similar to above, need a bit of an overhaul. Effectively least worst team in England, and ridiculously easy route to the final.
~ Man City (14/1) - 14/1? Fuck off. Knocked out in the Europa League 3rd round. Struggled away at the mighty Poznan and Aris. Don't think Mubarek is keen to spend loads after the previous two summers either. Obviously a couple will come in like.
~ Milan (20/1) - Not sure Allegri has got the tactical nous for Europe yet. Lucky their group was fairly weak with Auxerre and underperforming Ajax.
~ Inter (25/1) - Leonardo is coach. 'Nuff said.

After that you've got the outsiders, struggling to make a strong enough case for any of them.

So Bayern's credentials. Well they were unfortunate to be knocked out by a last minute Inter goal last season, and you'd have fancied them to beat Schalke in the quarters and probably Utd in the semi's. Obviously made it to the final in Madrid the previous season.

So far they've signed Neuer, Rafinha and Nils Peterson (top scorer in Bundesliga 2). Neuer is obviously a fantastic goalkeeper and will be huge improvement on the ageing Butt. They've also brought in a new manager in Jupp Heynckes who won the Champions League for Madrid in '98 in his one and only season at the Bernebeu. They've got so much quality going forward in Gomez, Robben, Muller, Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Olic, Lahm etc. I think all they possibly require is a decent centre-back.

Next seasons final will also be in the Allianz Arena, which I'm sure will motivate the staff and club.

I also think Madrid are value at 6/1. If Pepe doesn't get sent-off in the 1st leg of the semi the match finishes 0-0 and I reckon Mourinho gets his score draw in the Nou Camp to go through on away goals. These will be my two main plays I think. Can't be backing Barca at 5/2, despite how good they are.

[AdamR]

Munich 25/1 to win the CL is the shout so far.  Had a nibble on that myself EW. 

Malaga will certainly improve this season but 4th is too much for me.  They have a good squad and a great manager but I can't see them overhauling the likes of Valencia/Villareal just yet.  If you could have a top 6 bet then that would be a more interesting bet to me.

G

[Hightown Phil]

Gonna back Bayern myself. Couldn't agree more on that one.

[markay_stinkay]

Malaga will certainly improve this season but 4th is too much for me.  They have a good squad and a great manager but I can't see them overhauling the likes of Valencia/Villareal just yet.  If you could have a top 6 bet then that would be a more interesting bet to me.

G

Well, realistically there are two places up for grabs and four sides other than Malaga in contention. Valencia, Villarreal, Sevilla and Atleti. It looks like Aguero, De Gea, Rossi/Mata are all leaving and Sevilla are just ridiculously unpredictable. All those sides are also involved in Europe and only really Valencia have a squad good enough to cope. I know it's still early and we don't know who those sides are going to bring in, however they certainly won't be of the same quality.

I agree on the top 6 though, hopefully get around 4/1ish.

[AdamR]

I can only agree.

Teams like Villareal, Sevilla, Atleti do have a tendency to find these south american gems which keep them where they are in the league.  Maybe Malaga can do that now?  Who knows.

[L6 Red]

I actually will post my bets this season.

Might even do a blog~~!!

[alex.]

Already got on Bayern for the EC at 25/1

on Liverpool to win the league at 16/1

That's it so far.

Just seen Porto at 29/1 for the EC, Unibet, yes please.

[Lethal]

I do like that Bayern shout.

Will have a few quid on that, nice one

[Clayton Bigsby]

I'll have to wait and see who they keep/buy, but its looking like I will have to have my annual Darren Bent E/W Top Goalscorer bet. 16/1 but only PP at the moment, others will get involved soon enough.  The gift that keeps on giving

[Hightown Phil]

He might be back on penalties as well with Young leaving.

[Voltaire]

Darren Bent is a good shout, will get onto that.

Suarez 14/1 PP for Top Goalscorer - £25 E/W with Paddy Power.

He looks so sharp in front of goal, it'd be hard to see him not in the top four. He got 4 from 11 games, but that could have been at least 7 with a sliver of luck and didn't really get to combine with our most creative midfielder. Also, everytime he scores for us it'll feel even better.

[Clayton Bigsby]

@voltaire, I think Suarez is definately a good bet but I am going to wait for all the bookies to get involved first. I'm sure some sap will have him at 20/1

[Hightown Phil]

I'm not sure Suarez will score anywhere near enough personally. He's not going to be an out and out goalscorer.

[AJ]

Darren Bent is a good shout, will get onto that.

Suarez 14/1 PP for Top Goalscorer - £25 E/W with Paddy Power.

He looks so sharp in front of goal, it'd be hard to see him not in the top four. He got 4 from 11 games, but that could have been at least 7 with a sliver of luck and didn't really get to combine with our most creative midfielder. Also, everytime he scores for us it'll feel even better.

This 'sliver of luck' that you refer to is his ability to finish. He's a great player, but I'm firmly in the 'he'll make more than he'll score' camp. He's very hit and miss in front of goal - doesn't have the composure in my opinion. Don't think he'll come close to the top 4, to be honest.

[C]

I'm not sure Suarez will score anywhere near enough personally. He's not going to be an out and out goalscorer.

It depends on how well you think Liverpool are going to do really, if we mount some sort of title challenge Luis will probably be our top scorer - only player in the team who can actually take the ball off gerrard for a freekick on the edge of the box, after seeing his short time with us i'm convinced he is going to score alot of goals to be honest.

He isn't a natural finisher ala Fowler, Raul et al - but he has another dimension to his play which means he will get more chances than they would have in our team, we are going to be so attacking next season I really fancy Luis to score at least 15 premiership goals

He might not be a natural finisher, but he still has awesome technical ability and footballing instinct, his goals against Stoke and Fulham rounded the keeper and rolling it in, Sunderland away was incredibly classy, at home to Newcastle he got a flukey rebound after attempting a 1-2, but he had awareness and composure to slot it home - he's going to get goals with Gerrard playing next to him and hopefully a quality new winger.

[markay_stinkay]

I don't think you'll see him score 20+ goals though. The goals will prob be spread out, wouldn't be surprised to see Carroll, Suarez, Gerrard & Kuyt all in double figures.

[AJ]

Sorry, but Sunderland away was a 'smash it as hard as I can and hope for the best' and Stoke should never have gone in (highlighting his rather erratic finishing).

I think the team as a whole will get more chances as a result of him being in the side because I feel he's out most creative player. That being said, I think he'll get less chances than others in the side and I'd have his chance conversion rate at about 1 in 4. Just don't see it.

[Lethal]

Can see Suarez getting about 10-15 league goals next season which I'd be very happy with considering he'll make a load aswell. Wouldn't be on him top scorer.

[markay_stinkay]

Also, if you have a look at him last season at Ajax, they brought El Hamdaoui in and made him the focal point with Luis occupying the 'hole'. He didn't score half as many and actually went on a drought.

Value be with Darren Bent again I suspect.

[C]

Sorry, but Sunderland away was a 'smash it as hard as I can and hope for the best' and Stoke should never have gone in (highlighting his rather erratic finishing).

I think the team as a whole will get more chances as a result of him being in the side because I feel he's out most creative player. That being said, I think he'll get less chances than others in the side and I'd have his chance conversion rate at about 1 in 4. Just don't see it.

Stoke was a strange one, so much hype - stadium buzzing everytime he touched the ball, it reminded me of the atmosphere when Ronaldinho used to pick the ball up on the halfway line at Barcelona, sheer excitement from everyone in the ground - the rounding the keeper was the hard part, his weak left footed finish wasn't a concern to be honest, its what gerrard or torres would have done off balance after taking it wide onto their wrong foot.

What makes you think he will get less chances than others in the team? he can just make them for himself at will, against Fulham and Man Utd especially he was breezing past two players at a time, if we get on a roll with the confidence flowing I can see him bagging loads.

his record for Uruguay and Ajax is insanely good, we'll see!

[AJ]

I'm not convinced, I think a better finisher would have made sure of the finish. None of it matterrs, of course, it went in, but when you're backing someone for top scorer you want them to be deadly in front of goal and I don't think he is.

Because I think he's the most creative player in the side. If he's going to be on the end of attacking moves, he won't be creating them (bar the ones you refer to when he creates them for himself) so there'll be less of them.

Another gripe I have about him is his greed, but it's this, I feel, that made him so prolific at Ajax. He was the top dog there, he could do whatever he wanted - he was the main man and everyone knew it. He was also playing against a much lower standard of player and, generally, played for a side streets ahead of most of the others in the division. He won't be afforded those luxuries here.

[wardides]

Asamoah Gyan at 50 is big for me. 10 goals from 20 starts this year in the league, and adapted well enough. Hamstring injury always seemed to be niggling him though, and may come on well for having a summer off.

[-Paddy-]

Fuck off

[markay_stinkay]

Haha!

Odemwingie must be a shout with 15 goals last season and didn't arrive at the start. Reckon could get at least 66s.

[wardides]

Haha!

Odemwingie must be a shout with 15 goals last season and didn't arrive at the start. Reckon could get at least 66s.

We shall see. There's literally nobody there who I would be confident about, apart from Tevez if he scores.

[L6 Red]

Haha!

Odemwingie must be a shout with 15 goals last season and didn't arrive at the start. Reckon could get at least 66s.

The 25/1 on him w/o Tevez and Berbatov still grates.

I picked Tevez at 14/1 last year and there's nowhere near that value with Paddy Power or Slybet. If Tevez stays, I'll have a pop at 9/1 but his departure may open the door for Mario Balotelli, well worth a nose at 25/1 (and probably higher once more firms release). He scored 10 in 23 and that's with injury and being in/out of the team and not getting played up front on his own for portions of his time. Would he play ahead of Dzeko? I don't know. One to watch, though.

Elsewhere, I'll be looking at getting involved in Newcastle's relegation (8/1) and finishing bottom (33/1). I have reservations over whether Pardew sees the £35million for Carroll, and if he does, whether he'll spend that wisely. Barton is off, Enrique probably won't stay. Nolan can't reproduce his scoring last year, while Ben Arfa and Jonas can be inconsistent. Tiote/Cabaye will be decent in the centre but that's about it.

It's all depending on Carroll's money, really. If they don't get to spend it, the locals will become uneasy, marches against Ashley and it'll just spiral. If that happens, it's possible they'll drop all the way to the bottom because I can't see the promoted teams struggling that much next season. Also, second-season syndrome kicks in, and it does exist.

Wayne Rooney PFA Player of the Year at 10/1 is a decent shout, too. Euro 2012 on the horizon and England (if they get there) will be turning to WazzaRoon08 to fire them to glory. Media bandwagon will well and truly be rolling and he'll pick it up. He's a great player regardless but the whole England expectation should see him seal it.

Away from football, I'm liking Luke Donald at 16/1 for SPOTY. You're essentially getting 16/1 that Donald wins a major and Andy Murray doesn't win Wimbledon.

Lower league and abroad to follow at some point.

[stevenl]

Like Kris, I’ve been doing a little research into SPOTY and here’s what I’ve come up with.

Sports Personality of The Year is traditionally held in the 2nd/3rd week of December. Between now and then we have an array of sporting events to take place. However, unlike last year, there is no major International football tournament meaning that unless Wayne Rooney begins the season is stunning form,  this effectively rules out the chance of an English footballer winning the award.

Who else can we rule out? Phil Taylor, last year’s runner up has won neither the World Championship nor the Premier League this year. Defeat to Paul Nicholson yesterday has seen another major slip by. Whilst the World Matchplay, Grand Prix and Grand Slam of Darts are still to take place, Phil’s aura of invincibility is long gone, and I just can’t see him winning two out of the three never mind the clean sweep. Other popular contenders in recent years include Lewis Hamilton and Jensen Button, neither of which look like catching Sebastian Vettel this year again, something which effectively rules them out in my mind. Andy Murray and Wimbledon fever are just weeks away, but I just can’t see him breaking the monopoly that the top three of Nadal, Djokovic and Federer have – he just isn’t on their level.

Who does interest me? Well the three picks I’ve gone for are;

David Haye @ 6/1
Luke Donald at 16/1
Alistair Cook at 20/1.

If Haye can win his world title fight i think he'll be the obvious favourite. Heavyweight boxing may have lost the appeal it once had, but something just seems different with this fight. Haye as well as being a great talent, is extremely media savvy. You can bet your ass that if he beats Klitschko he'll be on more programmes than Adrian Chiles between July and December.

Luke Donald is pretty self explanatory. World number one, playing fantastic golf and generally quite a likeable guy too. If he can win a major and keep a hold of the world number one title i think he'll easily be in with a great shout.

Personally for me, Alistair Cook is the real value bet. 20/1? What idiot priced that up? He was phenomnial down under in the Ashes at the end of last year/beginning of this year. He was the top run scorer in a memorable series victory. England have big series' this summer against Sri Lanka and India. Cooks' two innings so far in this series have seen him record score's of 133 and 96. If he can continue in this sort of imperious form i just can't believe that he won't make the top three.

So there you go get on Alistair Cook at 20/1! I'm on for the outright and each/way .

[L6 Red]

David Haye has finished dead last in the past two awards, Steven. Definitely in 2009 (after winning the title), and I'm pretty sure I was told the same about 2010.

Donald and Cook are the bets.

[-Paddy-]

You're forgetting it's not about who deserves it most, but who's going to get the most votes.

As much as I agree Cook should really be a frontrunner for the award, doing most of his work in January won't help him at all. Agree with Luke though.

[stevenl]

Didn't know that Kris, cheers!

Like you say Paddy, i think Cook's real problem is the fact that by the time December comes around there will have been pretty much a whole year gone in the time since he scored all those runs, but who else is there lol ? It's not going to be a Phil Taylor or a Wayne Rooney. The F1 lads are for me personally, out of it, looking at the odds list i just think barring an Andy Murray Wimbledon victory, i.e a miracle, then Cook's in with a fantastic shout.

[L6 Red]

Of course, there's always the Ennis wildcard with it being the Olympics coming up.

[choi]

Of course, there's always the Ennis wildcard with it being the Olympics coming up.

Mo Farah if he does well at the worlds?

[AdamR]

Donald @ 16/1 for SPOTY is a bet and a half.

Considering I love the lad as well, my money is going on right now. 

Brilliant bet