Author Topic: Protests in the middle east thread  (Read 208722 times)

Offline evenflow

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4320 on: June 9, 2012, 04:47:21 PM »
The Syrian issue is the Egyptian issue is the Libyan issue is the Bahraini issue. Take your pick. The whole area is full of cuntheads who have no qualms razing the ground of their enemies - just some are less queasy than others.
They may have been set up (directly or indirectly) by other powers but it's been decades. Some of them are just pure products of their states - look at Bashar Al Assad, educated in England but just as much an arseface as his father. His dad was a farmer, he was a surgeon. There's no excuse for him whatsoever.

What I'm saying is that the Middle East needs to sort itself out. The people can't just sit in sheesha cafes and bemoan the situation forever, waiting for some form of outside help (that doesn't infringe on sovereignty) that'll never come. Egypt was amazing and so hopeful because Hosni Mubarak was so established yet they ousted him. The rest of the Middle East needs to follow because their governments aren't going to give up their power.

I entirely agree with this.


I have doubts about people being 'allowed' to 'sort it out' themselves because of the dangerous interests that converge in the region.
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Offline SMD

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4321 on: June 9, 2012, 04:48:28 PM »
I entirely agree with this.


I have doubts about people being 'allowed' to 'sort it out' themselves because of the dangerous interests that converge in the region.

Yeah I don't think asking permission is something that should be on the cards.
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Offline Liverbird 2010

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4322 on: June 10, 2012, 08:55:53 AM »
Them poor babies & children how can people do such horrific things butchering them like this? Fucking animals no other word for it quite these people carrying these acts out are mentally insane. This is just horrendous  :'(

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4323 on: June 12, 2012, 10:30:53 AM »
I've been doing a lot of research into the conflict in Syria

In the beginning, the protests were indeed a peaceful pro-democracy movement by a varied non-sectarian opposition. The Syrian government ruthlessly crushed them and declared them armed gangs and jihadis trying to overthrow the Syrian state.  Now things seem to have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Free Syrian Army is/was largely a secular movement mainly made up of rank-and-file army defectors and rebel bands forming to protect their own communities and the protestors.  Now the wider jihadi movement is getting involved, with reinforcements flooding in from nearby arab countries, and with shadowy terror organisations like the Al-Nusra Front for the Levant (over the border in Iraq, you'd call them Al Qaeda).  Unfortunately Assad government is no better, with their arming of Shabiha paramilitaries and Alawite communities responsible for much of the internecine violence againsts civilians.  They've basically been acting like modern day Vikings rampaging around opposition areas of Syria, bombarding towns, levelling areas, stealing everything and displacing civilians from their homes.

However, the opposition movement is only getting stronger by the day. While fragmented and lacking a unified leadership, they've succeeded in controlling large areas of Homs, Hama, Idlib and Daraa governates, with their attacks now extending to the capital Damascus and the largest city Aleppo.  The massacres by the Shabiha militias and heavy bombardments of civilian areas by the Syrian armed forces has spurred on and deteminded the opposition, and has largely counter-productive. The opposition forces are causing heavy casualties on Assad's forces and militarily the Syrian army isn't winning this war.  In many places they're being forced back.

However as the opposition grows stronger, the jihadists and salafists seem to becoming the hard core of many of it's forces.  Syria as a country has stocks of WMDs (chemical weapons) and the collapse of state control and the takeover by jihadi groups in a state that borders Israel is obviously not a happy prognosis.



I can express what I believe in 5 simple conclusions.

1. Assad should go.  He's become the archetype of the ruthless dictator and his forces have shown no respect to civilians or peaceful opposition and there will be no peace now as long as this man remains in charge.

2. Bashar Al-Assad will never step down voluntarily.  He's absolutely convinced he needs to remain in charge and this is just a hiccup in his dynasty, like his father Hafez Al-Assad experienced when he did the same thing and massacred thousands of civilians in Hama too. His father died in power and the Syrian government is basically a who's-who of the Assad family, they've everything to lose.  Now Bashar has let loose the Shabiha and their child killing, throat-slitting thugs, his backers have put into motion events they cannot and do not desire to stop.

3. The opposition are definitely no angels either. As arab salafists and jihadis migrate to Syria to join the fight against the Syrian army, suicide bombings, beheadings, and other terrorist activities are becoming more common tactics.  The FSA and Syrian national council are now only one facet in the opposition to Assad.

4. The conflict is definitely becoming more sectarian in nature, as the largely Sunni opposition displaces Shia Alawites and Christians in revenge for their loyalty to the state.  Not all of the opposition is Sunni or sectarian, but it is becoming increasingly so and it's sadly been massacres of Sunni civilians by the government that started this process.

5. Western intervention in Syria would be a mistake.  NATO has spent the last 10 years trying to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan and needs to learn from it's mistakes. If you remember, the population of Iraq hated Saddam Hussein who massacred them too and the coalition were going to be welcomed with open arms by a grateful populace.  A small scale intervention like that in Libya would make very little different now. A large scale intervention in Syria could easily turn into another long expensive occupation that's difficult to withdraw from.  Assad's government still does have a lot of support, especially amongst minorities and even amongst itself the opposition is heavily divided.  The only outside force I can imagine intervening successfully is Turkey's armed forces, with the assistance afterwards of UN peacekeeping forces drawn from fellow muslim nations.  I can't see this happening as it would require a lot more political will on the part of Turkey, despite exchanges between Erdogan and Assad in the past.


Yes, I realise points 1 and 5 are contradictory. I never said I had all the answers.
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Offline SMD

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4324 on: June 12, 2012, 10:34:35 AM »
That goes back to my point before, the region can't keep looking to the UN for solutions then whine and stamp its feet when it's not the action they want. The Syrian people aren't safe on either side of the sectarian divide. Whatever you want to say about the Allawi militias, there are still innocent people caught up in this and just because they make up the ruling class doesn't mean they're all to blame.

It's horrifically fucked up and it's only going to get much worse.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4325 on: June 12, 2012, 10:39:24 AM »
While I'm here, I'll quote myself.  This thread has been an excellent source for first hand media coming out of Syria.

Thought twice about posting this, but it might help anyone wanting to educate themselves about Syria.

A good source for media coming out of Syria is this thread.

Warning, there's like 175 pages of videos.  It's not easy viewing, particularly videos of the Houla massacre aftermath (dead children).

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Offline kopitecrash

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4326 on: June 13, 2012, 01:40:50 AM »
http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/hostile-territory/1863

Set Up To Be Shot In Syria's No Man's Land? (By The Rebels)
I know what you mean. I really wish the Madrid born former Real Vallodolid, Osasuna, Tenerife, Extremadura, Valencia and Inter Milan manager stayed loyal and faithful to a foreign club that sacked him by never managing another club again. Burn him.

Offline Liverbird 2010

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4327 on: June 13, 2012, 10:14:29 AM »
While I'm here, I'll quote myself.  This thread has been an excellent source for first hand media coming out of Syria.

I still cant get my head around this mass murdering of babies, children, men & women its the most horrific thing Ive ever seen in my life why arnt the arab leaders sorting this out? How can people let this happen?  :'( This type of thing should not be happening in this day and age this world is one fucked up place, and so are some of the people who inhabit it like these animals carrying out these killings of innocents!!!

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4328 on: June 13, 2012, 12:48:14 PM »
5. Western intervention in Syria would be a mistake.  NATO has spent the last 10 years trying to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan and needs to learn from it's mistakes. If you remember, the population of Iraq hated Saddam Hussein who massacred them too and the coalition were going to be welcomed with open arms by a grateful populace.  A small scale intervention like that in Libya would make very little different now. A large scale intervention in Syria could easily turn into another long expensive occupation that's difficult to withdraw from.  Assad's government still does have a lot of support, especially amongst minorities and even amongst itself the opposition is heavily divided.  The only outside force I can imagine intervening successfully is Turkey's armed forces, with the assistance afterwards of UN peacekeeping forces drawn from fellow muslim nations.  I can't see this happening as it would require a lot more political will on the part of Turkey, despite exchanges between Erdogan and Assad in the past.


I've been reading some very convincing arguments, referring back to the situation in Bosnia, 20 years ago.  The failure of anyone to act, even despite the massacre of huge numbers of innocent Muslim civilians, served as a huge rallying call for the jihadists in the West, many of the video clips of the Bosnian massacres are still used as recruiting/radicalising tools if you move in those kind of circles - so I hear. 

I mean, it's not an easy one.  Can we just ignore Russia?  Maybe not.  Can we really object to Russia supporting their allies in the region while 'we' continue to support Saudi Arabia and Bahrain?  I guess not.

However, depsite all the geo-political pros and cons, I think it has reached a point where what Assad and his goons are doing is just so disgusting that I am at the point of saying perhaps the most mindless thing I have ever said on RAWK, but "something must be done"!!  Just don't ask me exactly what.

Offline Red Beret

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4329 on: June 13, 2012, 05:54:49 PM »
The use of helicopters is disturbing me greatly.  Even more so is the suggestion that Russia is still supplying arms to Assad's regime.  If nothing else I would like to see a no-fly zone established but I doubt it would be very effective given the use of tanks and artillery.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4330 on: June 18, 2012, 06:50:46 PM »
I think we might need to make a "War in Syria" thread.

Protests are not what's happening, this IS a civil war. Has been for a while.

While I'm here, here's a video of what it's like to be on the receiving end, crazy cameraman was trying to capture a shell impact.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/hzKuCglZBz0&amp;hl=en_US" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/hzKuCglZBz0&amp;hl=en_US</a>
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 06:55:43 PM by Suspect Package. »
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Offline BIGdavalad

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4331 on: June 19, 2012, 09:46:32 AM »
A Russian ship believed to be carrying helicopters and missiles for Syria has been effectively stopped in its tracks off the coast of Scotland after its insurance was cancelled at the behest of the British government.

The British marine insurer Standard Club said it had withdrawn cover from all the ships owned by Femco, a Russian cargo line, including the MV Alaed.

"We were made aware of the allegations that the Alaed was carrying munitions destined for Syria," the company said in a statement. "We have already informed the ship owner that their insurance cover ceased automatically in view of the nature of the voyage."

British security officials confirmed they had told Standard Club that providing insurance to the shipment was likely to be a breach of European Union sanctions against the Syrian regime.

They said they were continuing to monitor the ship, which has been the subject of a fierce international row since US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week revealed it was adding to the arsenal of weaponry available for Mr Assad to use against rebellious Syrian towns.

"We have various ways of keeping track of this ship and that is what we are doing," a source told The Daily Telegraph.

The MV Alaed picked up its cargo of Mi25 helicopters – known as "flying tanks" – from the Russian port of Kaliningrad, where they had been sent to the state-owned manufacturer Mil's "Factory 150" for servicing and repairs.

They were originally sold to the Syrian government by Moscow, its major arms supplier, at the end of the Soviet era.

The ship headed south through the North Sea towards the English Channel on its way to the Mediterranean and, most likely, the Syrian port of Tartous, also home to a Russian naval base.

But under sanctions announced last year, the EU has banned not only exporting arms to Syria but also providing related services such as insurance.

As first revealed by The Sunday Telegraph at the weekend, the US notified the UK government that the insurance was British last week.

As it neared the Dutch coast, the authorities there also hailed the ship, the security sources said, and it made an abrupt turn, heading towards Scotland. It was last night now off the coast of the Hebrides but with no insurance covering the ship security sources say it may now have to return to port.

In their attempts to bombard rebel towns into submission, Assad regime forces have increasingly brought up helicopters, strafing the towns of Haffa and Rastan last week.

Their use, condemned by Kofi Annan, the UN peace envoy, has not stopped Russia's continued insistence on providing arms to the Syrians. Moscow is continuing with a 2007 contract to provide more than 20 MiG-29 M2 fighter aircraft, according to the Americans.

Russia also announced it was preparing to send an elite unit of marines to Tartous, a move which a Western defence source said was intended as a powerful signal that Russia would not tolerate foreign military intervention.

Classified US satellite images last week indicated that loading work had begun on two amphibious landing vessels, the Nikolai Filchenkov and the Caesar Kunikov, at the Crimean naval base of Sebastopol.

A Russian officer quoted by the Interfax news agency said they would carry marines charged with protecting the security of Russian citizens and evacuating a part of the base, marking the first time Moscow has sent troops to Syria since the uprising against Mr Assad began more than 15 months ago.

If fully loaded, the two vessels could carry as many as 600 troops and 24 tanks.

Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta, citing anonymous military sources, suggested that the soldiers would be drawn from the elite Pskov airborne brigades and special forces units stationed in Chechnya.

Russia was particularly unnerved after William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, and other Western officials compared the slaughter in Syria to the civil war in Bosnia in the 1990s, the Western defence source said.

They believed the comparisons amounted to a coded signal that the West was preparing to authorise a Nato mission to Syria similar to the peacekeeping operation mounted in Bosnia and later in Kosovo.

But the deployment also signalled that Russia was hedging its bets, according to the source.

"The purpose is threefold," he said. "First, they want to send a signal to the West about military intervention. Second, they want to demonstrate support for Assad.

"But they are also preparing for the worst and realise that the worsening situation may leave them no choice but to evacuate their nationals as a last resort. If that happens, it is game over for the Russians.

"They project strength, but know their position in Syria is actually a weak one. It may be this is a last throw of the dice."

At a meeting on the sides of the G20 summit in Mexico, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, agreed a political process was needed to "stop the bloodshed in Syria", according to a joint statement.

Telegraph
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Offline MrEazi1

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4332 on: June 19, 2012, 02:49:44 PM »
Syria is closely aligned with Iran, Russia and China. It has ties with Hezbollah and some Palestinian militant groups. It used to have ties with Hamas, but Hamas have come out in favour of the opposition. There are still outstanding issues with Israel. It has an army of 220,000, one of the largest in the Arab world and a strong air defence system.

There are two groups in Syria - the Alawi Shia community, which is the minority sect - and the sect of Bashar al-Assad. And the majority Sunni population, Sunnis make up the majority of the opposition. Most Alawis support Assad, and Sunni middle-class, businessmen support the regime as they have been doing well and have profited under the regime. If a Sunni government come to power - then the Alawis fear massive reprisals against their community and could be wiped out. Right now the conflict is being divided on sectarian lines, and as we have seen in Iraq - sectarian conflicts in the Middle East are always a bloodbath.

It is a tinderbox situation, and there is no stomach in Washington or London for a fourth battlefront - after Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. And due to the geopolitical and geographical position of Syria, there is potential for a massive Middle East war. Syria is no Libya. Russia is one of Syria's biggest arms supplier. The total value of Syrian contracts with the Russian defense industry exceeds $4 billion. Russia also leases a naval facility at the Syrian port of Tartus, giving the Russian navy its only direct access to the Mediterranean. China have traded extensively with Syria and cooperated in the field of defence, so they have economic interests.

Ideally I'd prefer to see regional organisations to be empowered and to step in when these situations arise. Western interventions usually have aims to protect self-interests. The African Union is currently stretched fighting conflicts around Africa, but I'd rather see them given the resources to intervene than have western boots on the ground over there. But again, it would be in an ideal world. We all know Arab countries have their own selfish aims and would intervene Syria for geopolitical reasons.  An almighty conflict would be created in the Middle East if there is intervention in Syria due to the allies Syria have and there is the danger Israel could get involved. So its better for the Kofi Annan Peace Plan to be implemented but the problem is that the plan has no teeth. Russia and China have to exert their influence on the regime.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2012, 02:52:08 PM by MrEazi1 »

Offline BIGdavalad

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4333 on: June 19, 2012, 04:49:29 PM »
By complete coincidence, the Russians are sending a large number of marines to their base in Syria while Iran, Syria, China and Russia are to hold joint military exercises in Syria which will involve 90,000 troops, 400 aircraft and Chinese, Iranian and Russian warships.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4334 on: June 19, 2012, 05:35:21 PM »
By complete coincidence, the Russians are sending a large number of marines to their base in Syria while Iran, Syria, China and Russia are to hold joint military exercises in Syria which will involve 90,000 troops, 400 aircraft and Chinese, Iranian and Russian warships.

I wouldn't hold my breath on that to be honest, the source for this is "FARS sources".

About as reliable as Sky sources, I would be very surprised if this actually happened.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4335 on: June 19, 2012, 10:29:46 PM »
Breaking News ‏@BreakingNews
Sources tell Reuters that ousted Egyptian President Mubarak is clinically dead - @Reuters
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4336 on: June 19, 2012, 10:35:10 PM »
Breaking News ‏@BreakingNews
Sources tell Reuters that ousted Egyptian President Mubarak is clinically dead - @Reuters

R.I.P.

The man was politically irrelevant by this stage of affairs anyway.

His legacy however....
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4337 on: June 19, 2012, 10:51:32 PM »
R.I.P.

The man was politically irrelevant by this stage of affairs anyway.

His legacy however....

Breaking News ‏@BreakingNews
Report: Mubarak's lawyer says ousted Egyptian leader is not dead -@washingtonpost

 :P
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4338 on: June 19, 2012, 11:12:04 PM »
Breaking News ‏@BreakingNews
Report: Mubarak's lawyer says ousted Egyptian leader is not dead -@washingtonpost

 :P

I'm interested to see whether the masses in Tahrir Square care any more.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4339 on: June 22, 2012, 05:01:36 PM »
It appears that Syria may have shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom. The crew have been recovered and Turkey have called an emergency security meeting.
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Offline SMD

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4340 on: June 22, 2012, 06:22:28 PM »
Hope it'll be an Emergency Lay The Smackdown on Assad Meeting.
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Offline Sinos

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4341 on: June 22, 2012, 10:01:28 PM »
Hope it'll be an Emergency Lay The Smackdown on Assad Meeting.

Erdogan could invoke Article V of the Washington Treaty if he wanted to stick the cat amongst the pigeons
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 05:10:26 PM by Sinos »
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Offline El Campeador

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4342 on: June 22, 2012, 10:17:09 PM »
Hope it'll be an Emergency Lay The Smackdown on Assad Meeting.

It's really stunning how quickly the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated.

Offline evenflow

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4343 on: June 23, 2012, 10:49:57 AM »
It's really stunning how quickly the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated.


I think Turkey really saw this as an opportunity more than anything else.

Anyway, i don't think we will wade in- we have others doing it for us.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/saudi-arabia-syria-rebel-army

Saudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army
Exclusive: Command centre in Turkey organising weapon supply to opposition
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Martin Chulov in Beirut, Ewen MacAskill in Washington, John Densky in Idlib province
guardian.co.uk, Friday 22 June 2012 18.03 BST


Free Syria Army fighters are to be paid by Saudi Arabia in an attempt to encourage pro-Assad troops to defect. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.

Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.

Turkey has also allowed the establishment of a command centre in Istanbul which is co-ordinating supply lines in consultation with FSA leaders inside Syria. The centre is believed to be staffed by up to 22 people, most of them Syrian nationals.

The Guardian witnessed the transfer of weapons in early June near the Turkish frontier. Five men dressed in the style of Gulf Arabs arrived in a police station in the border village of Altima in Syria and finalised a transfer from the Turkish town of Reyhanli of around 50 boxes of rifles and ammunition, as well as a large shipment of medicines.

The men were treated with deference by local FSA leaders and were carrying large bundles of cash. They also received two prisoners held by rebels, who were allegedly members of the pro-regime militia, the Shabiha.

The influx of weapons has reinvigorated the insurrection in northern Syria, which less than six weeks ago was on the verge of being crushed.

The move to pay the guerrilla forces' salaries is seen as a chance to capitalise on the sense of renewed confidence, as well as provide a strong incentive for soldiers and officers to defect. The value of the Syrian pound has fallen sharply in value since the anti-regime revolt started 16 months ago, leading to a dramatic fall in purchasing power.

The plan centres on paying the FSA in either US dollars or euros, meaning their salaries would be restored to their pre-revolution levels, or possibly increased.

The US senator Joe Lieberman, who is actively supporting the Syrian opposition, discussed the issue of FSA salaries during a recent trip to Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

His spokesman, Whitney Phillips, said: "Senator Lieberman has called for the US to provide robust and comprehensive support to the armed Syrian opposition, in co-ordination with our partners in the Middle East and Europe. He has specifically called for the US to work with our partners to provide the armed Syrian opposition with weapons, training, tactical intelligence, secure communications and other forms of support to change the military balance of power inside Syria.

"Senator Lieberman also supports the idea of ensuring that the armed opposition fighters receive regular and sufficient pay, although he does not believe it is necessary for the United States to provide this funding itself directly."

US defence secretary Leon Panetta said this week Washington was not playing a direct role in gun-running into northern Syria. "We made a decision not to provide lethal assistance at this point. I know others have made their own decisions."

Earlier this week the New York Times reported the CIA was operating in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which opposition fighters would get weapons.

Diplomatic sources have told the Guardian two US intelligence officers were in Syria's third city of Homs between December and early February, trying to establish command and control within rebel ranks.

Interviews with officials in three states reveal the influx of weapons – which includes kalashnikovs, rocket propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles – started in mid-May, when Saudi Arabia and Qatar finally moved on pledges they had made in February and March to arm rebel forces.

The officials, who insisted on anonymity, said the final agreement to move weapons from storage points inside Turkey into rebel hands was hard won, with Ankara first insisting on diplomatic cover from the Arab states and the US.

Turkey is understood to view the weapons supply lines as integral to the protection of its southern border, which is coming under increasing pressure as regime forces edge closer in an attempt to stop the gun-running and attack FSA units.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were all allies of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad until several months into the uprising, which now poses a serious threat to his family's 42-year rule over the country.

All three states have become increasingly hostile as the revolt has continued, with Saudi Arabia in February describing the suggestion to arm rebel groups as an "excellent idea" and Qatar having offered exile to Assad and his family.

For the first few months of this year the three states were waiting for the US to take a proactive role in intervening in Syria, something Washington has so far not seriously considered.

With a presidential election later this year, and weighed down by the troubled legacy of Iraq, Barack Obama has shown no enthusiasm for a major foreign policy play. Polling in the US has consistently shown that voters have little appetite for intervention in Syria, while officials from Washington to London and Brussels have warned of grave risks to the region which may follow the fall of Damascus.

Assad continues to cast his regime's battle for survival as an existential threat from radical Sunni Islamists, who he says are backed by foreign states.

The Free Syria Army says its members are almost exclusively Syrian nationalists who disavow the world view of jihadists who flocked to neighbouring Iraq from 2004-07. It acknowledges that some foreign Arab fighters have travelled to Syria to join its ranks, particularly in Homs and in Douma near Damascus, but claims they do not play a decisive role.

Intelligence officials say a power vacuum would provide an attractive environment for militants who espouse a global jihad world view. "The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said. "The ingredients are right for them [jihadists] to turn up and start acting decisively. That would not be a good outcome."




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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4344 on: June 23, 2012, 02:02:09 PM »
I want to merge a post by smd and package together as I think they helped me focus my thoughts regarding the resolution to the Syrian crisis.
Smd's idea that the middle east needs to sort itself out and foreign intervention and interest become of prime importance in the Syrian revolution more so than any other Arab spring country. That is because, from ME stand point, you cannot talk of the west as one entity, but two. The US and EU on one part, Russia and China on the other. Both forces have interests in Syria, and its important to examine those interests to determine where Syria is going. It is worth to note that both forces have their regional arms as well; the US has the gcc, Russia has Iran and hezbollah in Lebanon.

The US interests in the middle east and Syria's role:
Other than oil and maintaining stability in the region, there is another important goal that is largely overlooked, and that is to fully integrate the ME into the relatively new globalized economic system. That means converting the economic system in the middle-east from a capitalist system dominated by the army, to a neo-liberal system that is formed of a wider right-wing coalition that includes, with the military generals, businessmen.
This project was clearest in Egypt when we saw gamal Mubarak group Egypt's businessmen in the ndp, and talks that he would inherit the presidency in Egypt. That plan failed because gamal's group was not a popular one. The revolution and SCAF ensured the end of it. However the same plan will be revived, this time with SCAF and the Muslim brother, who are US friendly and more popular than gamal.
So why is this relevant in Syria? Because it is one of the few countries that oppose that project. Along with Iran and saddam hussein's Iraq, as well as hezbollah obviously. So from the pov of the US, ending the asad regime is not only important for achieving the neo-liberalization of the region, but it will also weaken all other opposing countries. Since Syria was the link between Iran and hezbollah.
So why aren't the US finishing  off al asad?

The Russian and Chinese interests in ME and Syria's role:
On the other flip of the coin, Russia and China are opposed to the US neo liberal project in the region. From Russia's pov, it doesn't want to lose anymore allies in the region. It used to have Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Syria, jumblat in Lebanon, now it lost all of those except Lebanon and Syria, and added Iran to the list. From Russia's pov, stability in the region is not of its interests; Russia is already an oil and gas-rich country, so it doesn't care about a stable oil price. It also wants to use the ME as a market for its weapons, this was clear in Syria and Libya.
On the other hand China, looking to compete with the US, would not want the US to succeed in its project for the region. The neo liberal project would basically turn the middle east into a market for US to sell its products. It will also open up the region's resources to the US, which is very threatning to China.

As a result China and Russia will hold on to the assad regime no matter what it takes. That, coupled by the global economic difficulties, will make it virtually impossible for the US to intervene militarily in Syria.
In fact I think it is doubtful, imo, that any opposition pro US will be able to topple al assad. It could take years. And the US could eventually lift their hands off Syria for a while.

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4345 on: June 23, 2012, 04:25:39 PM »
I guess the shooting down of that plane could drag us and the USA into another war if Turkey invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

The principle of collective defence is at the very heart of NATO’s founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance.

This principle is enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.

NATO invoked Article 5 of the Washington Treaty for the first time in its history following the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.

 
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Offline El Campeador

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4346 on: June 24, 2012, 06:02:15 AM »
So.  Is the Arab renaissance about to turn into Arab civil war?

Yes.

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4347 on: June 24, 2012, 02:27:42 PM »
Egypt's new president to be announced within minutes...
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4348 on: June 24, 2012, 03:33:33 PM »
...and it's Moursi.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4349 on: June 24, 2012, 06:07:32 PM »
...and it's Moursi.



The US interests in the middle east and Syria's role:
This project was clearest in Egypt when we saw gamal Mubarak group Egypt's businessmen in the ndp, and talks that he would inherit the presidency in Egypt. That plan failed because gamal's group was not a popular one. The revolution and SCAF ensured the end of it. However the same plan will be revived, this time with SCAF and the Muslim brother, who are US friendly and more popular than gamal.

The interesting thing is that some of the revolutionary forces, and not just MB, are taking this as if its a victory for the revolution as well. Although it seems clear to me that this is nothing more than an agreed deal (not hinting that the elections were fixed, but that MB and SCAF have an agreement in case Morsi wins). They get Morsi as president, and the brotherhood must "respect the law and the Egyptian Judiciary system."

Issues like the powers of the President, which were all swiped by SCAF, the disbanded parliament and the soon to be disbanded constitutional assembly are now off the negotiation results. I'm surprised that revolutionary activists and 6th of April in particular are not bringing this up.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 06:11:15 PM by socrates the sophist »

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4350 on: June 24, 2012, 06:39:35 PM »
Step by step, the army wanted Shafik, Morsy is better, even if by a small margin. Anyway there were news that Morsy will not appoint people from the MB, in the new government, let's just wait & see
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Offline SMASHerano

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4351 on: June 24, 2012, 09:47:14 PM »

The interesting thing is that some of the revolutionary forces, and not just MB, are taking this as if its a victory for the revolution as well. Although it seems clear to me that this is nothing more than an agreed deal (not hinting that the elections were fixed, but that MB and SCAF have an agreement in case Morsi wins). They get Morsi as president, and the brotherhood must "respect the law and the Egyptian Judiciary system."

Issues like the powers of the President, which were all swiped by SCAF, the disbanded parliament and the soon to be disbanded constitutional assembly are now off the negotiation results. I'm surprised that revolutionary activists and 6th of April in particular are not bringing this up.

It really is that obvious... and yet neither the revolutionary activists nor the 6th of April realize it. I think they were blinded by their hate for Shafik and the old regime. I'm pretty sure if it was Amr Moussa running against Moursi, he would've won by a landslide. Shafik's problem is that he symbolized everything that the old regime was about.

Anyway, Moursi won by 1.3%, 12.3 million Egyptians voted for Shafik, just goes to show how unpopular this revolution has become.

Let's see what the MB have in store for us, although I don't expect much from the two-faced lying bastards.
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Offline SMASHerano

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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4352 on: June 24, 2012, 09:50:37 PM »
Step by step, the army wanted Shafik, Morsy is better, even if by a small margin. Anyway there were news that Morsy will not appoint people from the MB, in the new government, let's just wait & see

Believe you me, coming from someone who is actually serving in the army, if they really wanted Shafik, he would've won. That 1.3% could've easily swayed in Shafik's direction.

As I said above there is an agreement between the SCAF and the MB. Morsi president (puppet), while the SCAF rule.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4353 on: June 25, 2012, 01:12:00 AM »
As I said above there is an agreement between the SCAF and the MB. Morsi president (puppet), while the SCAF rule.
Not doubting that, I don't think anything will change at all with Morsy in charge, not for better or worse to be honest.

BTW, any news regarding this year's draft, heard they're more strict than last year.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4354 on: June 26, 2012, 12:31:13 PM »
Syria fire at SAR plane searching for the plane they shot down

Defections by senior military officers are continuing (one a few days ago took his MiG-21 to Jordan).

It might not be too long before the Turks tell Russia to poke it and give Syria a good hiding.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4355 on: June 26, 2012, 02:17:13 PM »
Someone mentioned to me today that the MB in Egypt want closer ties with Iran.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4356 on: June 26, 2012, 02:44:06 PM »
Erm.
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4357 on: June 26, 2012, 07:35:35 PM »
Someone mentioned to me today that the MB in Egypt want closer ties with Iran.

and where did you hear this?
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4358 on: June 26, 2012, 07:45:22 PM »
Someone mentioned to me today that the MB in Egypt want closer ties with Iran.
BS
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Re: Protests in the middle east thread
« Reply #4359 on: June 26, 2012, 07:47:11 PM »
"The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy."