Topic: A title winning run may be needed...

[Shakespeare]

Whichever position or 'side' any of us is currently on, I think it may be safe to say that a top four placing in the league, and along with it CL qualification, is a reasonable enough expectation, whatever the circumstances is. In which case, perhaps a look at the probability of us achieving the said objective might be in order.

To begin, let's ascertain the projected points haul that would theoretically see us clinching fourth spot in the league. A quick review of the historical points haul of fourth place teams over the past five seasons will reveal the following:

Fourth Place, Past Five Seasons
2009/10   Spurs   70
2008/09   Arsenal    72
2007/08   Liverpool   76
2006/07   Arsenal    68
2005/06   Arsenal   67

5 Year Average: 71 points


We are currently placed at 10th, at 22 points after 17 games. Based on the 71 points projection, our targeted points haul over the remaining 21 games would be 49 points (71-22) out of a possible 63. That would represent a point yield rate of 2.33 points per game (78%). That essentially, is a title winning form, and by extension, we need a title winning run between now until the end of the season to achieve a CL qualifying spot.

How realistic is that target?
A peek at our fixtures shows that out of our remaining 21 games, 10 of them are away matches. In order to to achieve the fourth spot, we would do in half a season what Roy needed five seasons to - which is, to win a minimum of 5 away matches.

So, is fourth spot statistically attainable? Yes.
Is fourth spot realistically attainable? No, unless something very dramatic occurs.



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Edit: Additional

A couple of comments concerning Europa League Qualification has prompted a 7th placing review

Seventh Place, Past Five Seasons
2009/10   Liverpool   63
2008/09   Fulham    53
2007/08   Blackburn   58
2006/07   Bolton   56
2005/06   N'castle   58

5 Year Average: 58 points


Interesting Note: Liverpool's 63 points yield for 7th place last season is the highest in the history of the 20-team EPL.

[Terry de Niro]

Looking at the points we've already got, and the points we can realistically achieve for the rest of the season, I'll be very surprised if we get in the Europa spots..
and I used to very optimistic every season... 

[soxfan]

Shakespeare, while your conclusion isn't pretty, I appreciate the research. I've wondered what was usually needed to hit the top 4. Now I know! Thanks. 

Maybe we can get lucky and only need the 67 Arsenal got in 2005-06. That's one win and one draw less than your "average" of 71 would need. Given the way some of the top clubs have stumbled around this season, perhaps it's possible.

EDIT: To hit 67, we need approx. 14 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses for 45 more points. Possible??

[Mr Dilkington]

Think we'll end up finishing between 6th and 8th.

[alex.]

Fourth will definitely be attainable with less points than any of the previous five seasons you've stated.

[Vork+The Knights of Good]

Wouldn't be surprised if it requires less than any of those totals to achieve fourth this year. We still won't get there, but atm I think Chelsea is on pace for around 65 pts and currently lie fourth in the table. It definitely won't take 71 to get there; the league is too wide open this year. Thanks for the research, Bill!

[Fauxy]

Your analysis doesnt take into account how well other teams are doing though.

And luckily for us, the teams that threaten our fourth spot arent doing too great really.

Still, with Hodgson in charge im not sure we can manage fourth 

[JackWard33]

Don't care who the manager is this squad has almost no chance to finish in the top 4

[Paragon]

Don't care who the manager is this squad has almost no chance to finish in the top 4

Sadly I agree.

[MagicB8all]

Think we'll end up finishing between 6th and 8th.

based on past behavior that's the sacking position :-)

[Red_Rich]

Funny old season all round.

Chelsea looked like walking it and now they look like they could struggle for a top 4 finish!

I agree that we have to go on a title-winning streak, form-wise.  With our current away record, I don't see that happening.  6th at best, probably more like 7th or 8th in reality.

[Johnnyboy1973]

We weren't a fourth placed squad last season and we aren't one this season.

We are a sixth placed squad but it would appear we will finish 9/10 on 49/50 points.

[Shakespeare]

soxfan, Vork, my pleasure.

I've just appended some new review on 7th place as well.

[Shakespeare]

Your analysis doesnt take into account how well other teams are doing though.

Just for you, I've prepared the league table for this and the previous season, post-Match Day 17. A rough comparison can be made here. mate

   Season 2009/10, Matchday 17
   Chelsea    17    40
   Man Utd    17    37
   Arsenal    17    35
   A. Villa    17    32

   Season 2010/11, Matchday 17th
    Man Utd   17   37
    Arsenal   18   35
    Man City   19   35
    Chelsea   18   31

[Brian Blessed]

7th only mattered last season because Portsmouth were fucked financially. We aren't in the Europa on merit, only by circumstance.

[SMD]

We need to stop fucking feeling sorry for ourselves and just put in the same amount of effort as a title race, otherwise every single one of those fuckers can fuck off, from the captain down to the youngest sub.

[IndianaRed]

I've posted this in a couple threads recently, but again it's relevant here.  Would like more and more people to see it.  Make sure to read all the way to the end:

Some Statistics regarding point totals and averages:

Last season at Fulham, after 17 games Roy had accumulated 26 points.  This season with a higher-quality LIVERPOOL team, he has amassed just 22 points from the same number of games.  4 fewer points than last season where he had a weaker squad.

Last season at Fulham, he ended the season after 38 games with 46 points, just 20 more points than after that 17th game.  20 more points in 21 more games.
 In those first 17 games his point average was 1.53;  in the remaining 21 games his point average was 0.95 points per game.  His 38-game points per game average last season was just 1.21 points per game.

This season with liverpool his 17 game point average is 1.29 points per game.   if at this point last season you were to use his first-17 game average from last season (1.529411...) to project his 38 game point total for last season, he was on pace to earn 58.12 points (ended up with 46).  if you were to project his 38-game point total for THIS season using this season's 17-game point average, he is currently on pace to earn 49.18 points.

last season, his 38 game total of 46 points was 20.85% lower than his 17-game average projection predicted the 38 game total would be at the end of the season (58.12).

if our real point total at the end of this season is 20.85% less than the 17-game average predicts it will be after 38 games (49.18), then we will have a massive 38.92 points at the end of this season.

[PJG]

Looking at the points we've already got, and the points we can realistically achieve for the rest of the season, I'll be very surprised if we get in the Europa spots..
and I used to very optimistic every season... 

We may still win the Europa league (which may keep Roy in the job).  But thanks for doing the research Shakespeare.  For what it's worth, I don't see us reaching 6th let alone the champions league.   

[soxfan]

Well that cheered me up.   

[i_wun_bite]

7th only mattered last season because Portsmouth were fucked financially. We aren't in the Europa on merit, only by circumstance.

at present, we would need at least 6th, depending on how the FA Cup competition goes, to get into Europa League next season. The league cup representative is going to be either West Ham, Ipswich or Birmingham.

[Sachin4ever]

We could not have asked for better league table, with our direct competitors losing now and then. Even with our squad, we caould have been fourth or around fourth by this time. But our shit away form and our stuttering start to the season has spoiled it. We could have taken the champions league spot but we shot ourself in the foot with our manager appointment.

[StevePass]

Sadly, this would be beyond Roy Hodgson.  Mr. Hodgson is not known to be associated with title winning runs.   

[shravan.satya]

based on past behavior that's the sacking position :-)

So Roy would be here till the end of the season? Does that also mean he would be getting funds for January transfers? fuck!

[PJG]

Just for a bit more perspective of our position at the moment and abit of an alternative outlook, I created this table to see how we compare on a game per game basis.  Although not the greatest measure it does give some indication of where we are at



Most interestingly, if you ignore the relegated/promoted teams (Total without 3R/P), the Liverpool team of 09/10 has 1 less point than the Liverpool team of 10/11.  However if you include it, the 09/10 team is 5 points up better than the 10/11 team

Essentially the losses to Newcastle and Blackpool have hurt us but startlingly, Fulham last year (7 points) have outperformed us this year (3 points) in terms of matches against the 3 relegated/promoted clubs 

Also, we are only 3 points better off now than Fulham in 09/10 (including Relegated/promoted teams)

Away from home we have got 1 more point than Fulham last year and a worse goal difference (N), but we have done better at home this year than Liverpool of 09/10 (by 2 points) but much worse away (7 points)

But this is still while remembering that last season was considered a poor one for Liverpool

edit :We did better last year than we are doing this year and last year we finished 7th.  We are now closer to Fulham last year in terms of points than us last year.  So essentially there is very little chance that we will be able to get 4th.  If we bring in a new manager now(to force a dramatic change if you will), it would just make him look bad.

[Didi_ram]

NESV are certainly looking at this,and they probably know the consequences of not finishing in the top 4.
That might probably prompt them to spend big in January,to give us that push needed.
It is pretty clear that we need a Dzeko or a Llorente along with a good winger to really step up.

[Shooter]

Aim for the sky and you'll reach the ceiling. Aim for the ceiling and you'll stay on the floor.

[CHOPPER]

We should have a title winning run every season. Or at least part of one.

We needed one last season and we need another again. Coincidence or is there something more deep rooted?

[Roy of the rovers]

Whichever position or 'side' any of us is currently on, I think it may be safe to say that a top four placing in the league, and along with it CL qualification, is a reasonable enough expectation, whatever the circumstances is. In which case, perhaps a look at the probability of us achieving the said objective might be in order.

Precisely zero

Seriously, do you really think a top 4 spot is a 'reasonable enough expectation'

Madness...

[JM10]

Absolutely no chance that we'll finish above 6th. Utd, Arsenal, Spurs, Manchester City and even Chelsea are much better than we are. Ah well, at least we're gonna win The Ashes...

[LiverBirdKop]

Great to look at those stats, but considering this is a very tight season, I would love it, just f-ing love it, if we could get a better interim manager to at least give it a strong effort.

Keeping Roy just gives th wrong impression that we're not that concerned where we finish this year. Which is a shame considering the implications being simply a "top half of the table team"(to use Roy's words) would mean not just financially.

[LiverpoolKopKings]

I am a great lover of statistics and I am sure that FSG/NESV are very keen on that as well. Actually I hope they are and have done some projections already.

But a simple calc put me in despare

17=22
38=?

A whopping 49.176

I know that it doesn't work that way, but we are looking more and more like an average team. It will take something slightly short of a miracle to turn things around with our inconsistency

Our last 6 are DLWLWL whereas the others are

MU DDWWWW  14p
A    WLWWLW  12p
MC WDWWLW  13p
C   LLDDDL       3p
T   WWWDDW  14p
B   WDLWLW    10p
SU DLWDWL     8p
ST WWDDLW    11p
NU DLDLWL      5p
LFC DLWLWL    7p

So in the last 6 the best 2 are MU and T followed by MC and A. Both B and ST are doing very good at the moment which will come in handy for them later in the season.

Worse off are C with just 3 points. Even if C were to accidentally continue on this run (and I strongly believe it will soon stop) there are MC and T strongly competeing for C's and our place. MC look strongly rooted up there whilst T is going to give a strong run for 4th.

ONLY C and NU have done worse then us in the last 6. Both have been going through a very rough patch C with form and NU with the manager thing.

Even if C had to continue to fall we need a miracle even to compete for 6th on our current form.

In truth this is beyond statistics as everyway we look at it, it's dismal and we just need a playstation standard run to even dream of 4th. Yes 4th is attainable but half way we are already 9 off 4th and only cause Chelsea are in a jinx cause otherwise it would be a min of 13 off 4th.

To add insult to injury the unnamables are on a 4 win streak and seemed to have engaged an extra gear and are going to finally beat us to 19th.

[God 9]

Wow, great research there.
As for my opinion, I think 4th is still a viable option.

[GBF]

If we dont finish at least in the Europa spot (which i think is currently extremely difficult), the owners will have to take full responsibility

[LiverBirdKop]

If we dont finish at least in the Europa spot (which i think is currently extremely difficult), the owners will have to take full responsibility

Well, haven't you heard? They're still learning. They can't do anything because we don't have a CEO.

But nevermind. At least they're "listening".

[MassDriver]

A lot will depend on how we do in the next 3 weeks or so , we are now into the 'make or break' phase of our season. Europa League qualification is the minimum we should be able to get at the end of the season , either through the league or by winning one of the cups.

I still think Tottenham are not that better than us and if we actually start performing to our capabilities , we should be able to finish above them. Top 4 however , is next to impossible this season. I don't see us bettering City , Chelsea or Arse , their squads are miles above ours both in terms of quality and quantity.

If we start replicating our home form away ,I don't see any reason why we cannot finish 5th above the likes of Spuds.

Call me crazy but I also believe we can win the Europa league this season. Roy knows how to set his teams up for Europe , it might be negative but it does the job as we saw from Fulham's run last season where they beat 'A' quality European sides like Juve , Shakhtar and Hamburg over two legs with a piss poor squad. We need to perform well in Europe to keep maintain our ranking/seeding in European competition , we don't want to fall behind.

Europa League champions and a 5/6th place finish will do nicely at the end of the season.

[JimmysHammer]

Great research fella,

sadly i fear the only run we may see that will increase our league form would be a certain manager running out of the the Shankly Gates screaming "BYEEEEEE I"M GOING NOWWWWW, I"MM NEVVEERR COOMMINNGG BAAAACKKKK....BBBYYEEEEEE"

[Zlen]

I don't see Liverpool having more then 55 points at the end of the season.
First of all our squad is not top 4 good, we're very low on guts and desire and we are managed by a self serving Sesame street character.
Europa league is a bare minimum which we'll struggle to even get close to.

[lamonti]

We'll be doing well to finish 6th, given the way things have gone so far. I'd be pretty certain that that would not be enough to keep Hodgson his job, even if it represented an improvement position wise (though possibly not points wise) on last season. I think its important we are playing Europe next year at least but there's still a chance we might not.

[Ryan M]

Really interesting read. Has one ever previously completed similar research in other seasons? I noticed the Fulham 'theory' of last season where they were expected to amass a certain total, but ended up reaching short of the expected result. I was wondering if anyone has completed similar research for Liverpool, sue to the knowledge of LFC performing better second half of the season? Anyways thanks to the OP for presenting this research.

[Promised to never post on RAWK again]

Looking at the points we've already got, and the points we can realistically achieve for the rest of the season, I'll be very surprised if we get in the Europa spots..
and I used to very optimistic every season... 

Terry, I agree that our away form gives us little reason for optimism, but the general poor form of the teams like Everton and Aston Villa is giving me hope that we could finish in the Europa League places come May ... Of course, It would require a couple of top quality additions in January and good fitness record of our star players ...