Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2010-11

[Callaghan.]

So if we win the next two games, which considering our current form looks quite possible, we'll be equal to last seasons results?

Yes. That's the 'equivalent games' comparison.

In the 'time' comparison, we'll be 1 point better off. We had 20 points after 13 games last season. IF we can beat Wigan and Stoke (not likely imho but obviously possible), we'll have 21 points from 13 games.

[Jack Slater]

Burnley Last = NewcastleThis   
Hull Last = West Brom This   
Portsmouth Last = Blackpool This   

DATE	OPPONENT	H/A	LAST SEASON	THIS SEASON	DIFF (PTS, GS, GA, GD)
--------------	------------	-----------	-------------------	----------------------	------------------------------
15.08.2010	Arsenal	home	L1-2	D1-1	(1, 0, 1, 1)
23.08.2010	Manchester City	away	D0-0	L0-3	(-1, 0, -3, -3)
29.08.2010	West Bromwich Albion	home	W6-1	W1-0	(0, -5, 1, -4)
12.09.2010	Birmingham City	away	D1-1	D0-0	(0, -1, 1, 0)
19.09.2010	Manchester United	away	L1-2	L2-3	(0, 1, -1, 0)
25.09.2010	Sunderland	home	W3-0	D2-2	(-2, -, -2, -3)
02.10.2010	Blackpool	home	W4-1	L1-2	(-3,  -3, -1, -4)
17.10.2010	Everton	away	W2-0	L0-2	(-3, -2, -2, -4)
23.10.2010	Blackburn Rovers	home	W2-1	W2-1	(0, 0, 0, 0)
31.10.2010	Bolton Wanderers	away	W3-2	W1-0	(0, -2, +2, 0)
07.11.2010	Chelsea	home	L0-2	W2-0	(+3, +2, +2, +4)
10.11.2010	Wigan Athletic	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
13.11.2010	Stoke City	away	D1-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
20.11.2010	West Ham United	home	W3-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.11.2010	Tottenham Hotspur	away	L1-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
04.12.2010	Aston Villa	home	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
11.12.2010	Newcastle United	away	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
18.12.2010	Fulham	home	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.12.2010	Blackpool	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.12.2010	Wolverhampton Wndrs	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
01.01.2011	Bolton Wanderers	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.01.2011	Blackburn Rovers	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.01.2011	Everton	home	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.01.2011	Wolverhampton Wndrs	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.02.2011	Stoke City	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.02.2011	Chelsea	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
12.02.2011	Wigan Athletic	home	W2-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.02.2011	West Ham United	away	W3-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.03.2011	Manchester United	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
19.03.2011	Sunderland	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.04.2011	West Bromwich Albion	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
10.04.2011	Manchester City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
16.04.2011	Arsenal	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
23.04.2011	Birmingham City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
30.04.2011	Newcastle United	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
07.05.2011	Fulham	away	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.05.2011	Tottenham Hotspur	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.05.2011	Aston Villa	away	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)

Dropped Points Last Season

6  -  2 teams  (Chelsea, Arsenal)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 4.  Dropped = 2]
5  -  1 team  (Fulham)
4  -  2 teams  (Man C, Birmingham)  [Points Played For So far:  6.   Taken = 1.  Dropped = 5]
3  -  6 teams  (Spurs, Villa, Sunderland, Blackpool, Wigan, Man Utd)  [Points Played For So far: 9.  Taken = 1.  Dropped = 8]
2  -  4 teams (Blackburn, Stoke, Wolves, West Brom)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 6.  Dropped = 0]
0  -  4 teams (Bolton, Newcastle, West Ham, Everton)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 3.  Dropped = 3]




Net Difference So Far Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season

Points = -5

Wins = -2
Draws = +1
Losses = +1

Goals For  =  minus 11
Goals Against =  minus 2 ('minus' means 'worse' ie more conceded)
Goal Difference = minus 13


Chelsea was the start of a run of 3 games from which we got 1 point in total last season.  So we have already improved on that mini-run.

In the event that we did win both our next 2 games (possible but unlikely), we will be 1 point better off compared to the corresponding fixtures, after 13 games.

Hopefully JP65 will add the full time comparisons at some point.  Briefly, after 11 games last year, we had 18 points.  ie we were 3 points better off than we are now.  We then drew our next 2 games.  So, again, if we managed 2 wins now, then we would be 1 point ahead on the time comparisons too, after 13 games.

[Jack Slater]

Please tell me we're not comparing Roy Hodgson to Paisley and Shanks??   

Depends what you mean by "comparing"?

Kenny won the league in his first (top flight) season.  Paisley and Shankly didnt. 

That's a comparison of sorts, but it is a different comparison to saying

"Manager X is better than Manager Y"


Apart from anything else, the first comment is simply stating a fact, and the second one is stating an opinion.

But also the first comment does not imply anything else.  It does not imply that one manager is "better" than another.  It is just mentioning a fact which other people might either choose to ignore, or else take into account.  That would be entirely up to them.

Hopefully, however, anyone whose opinion had previously been "Any manager who does not win the league at the first attempt is obviously a failure" would revise their opinion when the above-mentioned fact was pointed out to them.

[Jack Slater]

So if we win the next two games, which considering our current form looks quite possible, we'll be equal to last seasons results?

Yes. That's the 'equivalent games' comparison.

You two are right.


We are 5 down on last season.  We got 1 point from our two  upcoming fixtures.  So if we did get 6 this year, then we would be dead level on points in that comparison.

I have a feeling it wont happen unfortunately.

[Callaghan.]

We are 5 down on last season.  We got 1 point from our two upcoming fixtures.  So if we did get 6 this year, then we would be dead level on points in that comparison.

I have a feeling it wont happen unfortunately.

IF we can beat Wigan and Stoke (not likely imho but obviously possible), we'll have 21 points from 13 games.

Snap!

[Jack Slater]

Taking inspiration from the way that the General Election coverage ranks target seats, I tried to rank LFC's target fixtures. (Just for fun as Peter Snow would say).  These are, imho, the games offering our best chance for improvement compared to last season, in order.

Burnley Last = NewcastleThis   
Hull Last = West Brom This   
Portsmouth Last = Blackpool This   


First of all in groups based on last season result.

11 Chances to gain 1 or 3 points in ascending order of difficulty

1.   Blackpool Away   
2.   Wigan Away  PLAYING TONIGHT
3.   Villa Home
4.   Fulham Away
5.   Sunderland Away
6.   Arsenal Home  (This season gained 1)
7.   Spurs Away
8.   Chelsea Home  (This season gained 3)
9.   Arsenal Away
10.  Chelsea Away
11.  MU Away  (This season gained nil)

Net Gain/Loss This Season  = Plus 4 (Any point is a gain from these games, tbf)




9 Chances to gain 2 points in ascending order of difficulty

1.   Fulham Home
2.   WBA  Away
3.   Birmingham Home
4.   Wolves Away
5.   Blackburn Away
6.   Man C Home
7.   Stoke Away
8.   Birmigham Away   (This season gained nil)
9.   Man C Away  (This season gained nil;  lost 1)


Net Gain/Loss This Season  = Minus 1



18 Games to avoid losing points in ascending order of difficulty

1.    Blackpool Home  (This season dropped all 3 points)
2.    WBA Home  (This season saved all 3 points)
3.    Wigan Home 
4.    West Ham Home
5.    Wolves Home
6.    Newcastle Home
7.    Bolton Home
8.    Blackburn Home  (This season saved all 3 points)
9.    Stoke Home
10.  West Ham Away
11.  Sunderland Home  (This season dropped 2 points)
12.  Bolton Away  (This season saved all 3 points)
13.  Spurs Home
14.  Newcastle Away
15.  Everton Home
16.  Villa Away
17.  Everton Away  (This season dropped all 3 points)
18.  MU Home


Net Gain/Loss So Far This Season From Last Season's Wins  = Minus 8  (Any point dropped a loss from these games, tbf)




20 Chances to gain some points in ascending order of difficulty

Rank    Fixture Possible Gain Actual Gain Possible Remaining Gain ........    .......... ........................... .......................................................... ...................................... 1.    Blackpool Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 1 2.    Fulham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 3 3.    Wigan Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 4 4.    WBA  Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 6 5.    Birmingham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 8 6.    Wolves Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 10 7.    Villa Home Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 11 8.    Blackburn Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 13 9.    Fulham Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 14 10.    Sunderland Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 15 11.    Man C Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 17 12.    Stoke Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 19 13.    Birmigham Away  Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil) - 14.    Man C Away    Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil;  lost 1) - 15.    Arsenal Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 16.    Spurs Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 20 17.    Chelsea Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 3) - 18.    Arsenal Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 21 19.    Chelsea Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 22 20.    MU Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained nil) -

Net Gain/Loss So Far This Season From These 20 Targets  = Plus 3


Last season, we got 54 points from our 18 wins, and 9 points from the 20 fixtures in the list above.


TARGET:  70 POINTS

At the start of the season, on the assumption we did no worse in any of the games we got points from last season,  then we would need to gain 7 points from the above list of 20 games to reach 70 points. 

If we improved last season's losses to draws, and last season's draws to wins, that would have meant improving in the first 5 games on the list (as far down as Birmingham Home).

We have already dropped 5 points (net) compared to last season.  So that means that we now would need to gain a total of 12 points from the 20 fixtures in the target list in order to reach 70 points for the season.  That would be as far down as the 8th game on the target list (Blackburn Away). 




TARGET:  75 POINTS

At the start of the season, on the assumption we did no worse in any of the games we got points from last season,  then we would need to gain 12 points from the above list of 20 games to reach 75 points. 

If we improved last season's losses to draws, and last season's draws to wins, that would have meant improving in the first 9 games on the list (as far down as Biringham Fulham Away).

We have already dropped 5 points (net) compared to last season.  So that means that we would need to gain a total of 17 points from the 20 fixtures in that list in order to reach 75 points for the season.  That would be as far down as the 11th game on the list (Man C Home).   



Wigan tonight is a chance to gain either 1 or 3 points.  A gain of 1 point, and our race to 70 points will be as described above.  ie we would need to do no worse than we did last season in any game, plus convert losses against Blackpool (Portsmouth) Away and Villa Home to draws, and draws against Fulham Home, WBA Away, Brum Home, Wolves Away to wins.  Not easy.  But not impossible either.  A gain of 3 points tonight would be even better, obviously.

[Lofty Ambitions]

Great analytics once again, thanks! Are you Paul Tomkins?   

[Jack Slater]

Burnley Last = NewcastleThis   
Hull Last = West Brom This   
Portsmouth Last = Blackpool This   

DATE	OPPONENT	H/A	LAST SEASON	THIS SEASON	DIFF (PTS, GS, GA, GD)
--------------	------------	-----------	-------------------	----------------------	------------------------------
15.08.2010	Arsenal	home	L1-2	D1-1	(1, 0, 1, 1)
23.08.2010	Manchester City	away	D0-0	L0-3	(-1, 0, -3, -3)
29.08.2010	West Bromwich Albion	home	W6-1	W1-0	(0, -5, 1, -4)
12.09.2010	Birmingham City	away	D1-1	D0-0	(0, -1, 1, 0)
19.09.2010	Manchester United	away	L1-2	L2-3	(0, 1, -1, 0)
25.09.2010	Sunderland	home	W3-0	D2-2	(-2, -, -2, -3)
02.10.2010	Blackpool	home	W4-1	L1-2	(-3,  -3, -1, -4)
17.10.2010	Everton	away	W2-0	L0-2	(-3, -2, -2, -4)
23.10.2010	Blackburn Rovers	home	W2-1	W2-1	(0, 0, 0, 0)
31.10.2010	Bolton Wanderers	away	W3-2	W1-0	(0, -2, +2, 0)
07.11.2010	Chelsea	home	L0-2	W2-0	(+3, +2, +2, +4)
10.11.2010	Wigan Athletic	away	L0-1	D1-1	(1, 1, 0, 1)
13.11.2010	Stoke City	away	D1-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
20.11.2010	West Ham United	home	W3-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.11.2010	Tottenham Hotspur	away	L1-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
04.12.2010	Aston Villa	home	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
11.12.2010	Newcastle United	away	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
18.12.2010	Fulham	home	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.12.2010	Blackpool	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.12.2010	Wolverhampton Wndrs	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
01.01.2011	Bolton Wanderers	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.01.2011	Blackburn Rovers	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.01.2011	Everton	home	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.01.2011	Wolverhampton Wndrs	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.02.2011	Stoke City	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.02.2011	Chelsea	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
12.02.2011	Wigan Athletic	home	W2-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.02.2011	West Ham United	away	W3-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.03.2011	Manchester United	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
19.03.2011	Sunderland	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.04.2011	West Bromwich Albion	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
10.04.2011	Manchester City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
16.04.2011	Arsenal	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
23.04.2011	Birmingham City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
30.04.2011	Newcastle United	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
07.05.2011	Fulham	away	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.05.2011	Tottenham Hotspur	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.05.2011	Aston Villa	away	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)

Dropped Points Last Season

6  -  2 teams  (Chelsea, Arsenal)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 4.  Dropped = 2]
5  -  1 team  (Fulham)
4  -  2 teams  (Man C, Birmingham)  [Points Played For So far:  6.   Taken = 1.  Dropped = 5]
3  -  6 teams  (Spurs, Villa, Sunderland, Blackpool, Wigan, Man Utd)  [Points Played For So far: 12.  Taken = 2.  Dropped = 10]
2  -  4 teams (Blackburn, Stoke, Wolves, West Brom)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 6.  Dropped = 0]
0  -  4 teams (Bolton, Newcastle, West Ham, Everton)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 3.  Dropped = 3]




Net Difference So Far Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season

Points = -4

Wins = -2
Draws = +2
Losses = 0

Goals For  =  minus 10
Goals Against =  minus 2 ('minus' means 'worse' ie more conceded)
Goal Difference = minus 12



So now, after 12 games, the net difference to last season is that 2 wins last season, have become 2 draws this. 

We're a third of the way through the season, so if that pattern was maintained, then we'd end up on around 50 points. 

On the other hand, we have won 10 points out of the last 12, and our last 2 games have resulted in a net gain of 4 points on last season's corresponding fixtures.  Based on recent activity, a points haul of 70 points plus is well within reach.

A decent win against Stoke is now required to encourage belief that the recent trend is the one that we should look at, rather than the season to date comparison, when trying to guesstimate where we'll finish.

[Roy of the rovers]

Sir, I salute your continued endeavours when many of the rest of us (myself included) are so utterly despondent

[Jack Slater]

Taking inspiration from the way that the General Election coverage ranks target seats, I tried to rank LFC's target fixtures. (Just for fun as Peter Snow would say).  These are, imho, the games offering our best chance for improvement compared to last season, in order.

Burnley Last = NewcastleThis   
Hull Last = West Brom This   
Portsmouth Last = Blackpool This   


First of all in groups based on last season result.

11 Chances to gain 1 or 3 points in ascending order of difficulty

1.   Blackpool Away   
2.   Wigan Away  (This season gained 1)
3.   Villa Home
4.   Fulham Away
5.   Sunderland Away
6.   Arsenal Home  (This season gained 1)
7.   Spurs Away
8.   Chelsea Home  (This season gained 3)
9.   Arsenal Away
10.  Chelsea Away
11.  MU Away  (This season gained nil)

Net Gain/Loss This Season  = Plus 5 (Any point is a gain from these games, tbf)




9 Chances to gain 2 points in ascending order of difficulty

1.   Fulham Home
2.   WBA  Away
3.   Birmingham Home
4.   Wolves Away
5.   Blackburn Away
6.   Man C Home
7.   Stoke Away
8.   Birmigham Away   (This season gained nil)
9.   Man C Away  (This season gained nil;  lost 1)


Net Gain/Loss This Season  = Minus 1



18 Games to avoid losing points in ascending order of difficulty

1.    Blackpool Home  (This season dropped all 3 points)
2.    WBA Home  (This season saved all 3 points)
3.    Wigan Home 
4.    West Ham Home
5.    Wolves Home
6.    Newcastle Home
7.    Bolton Home
8.    Blackburn Home  (This season saved all 3 points)
9.    Stoke Home
10.  West Ham Away
11.  Sunderland Home  (This season dropped 2 points)
12.  Bolton Away  (This season saved all 3 points)
13.  Spurs Home
14.  Newcastle Away
15.  Everton Home
16.  Villa Away
17.  Everton Away  (This season dropped all 3 points)
18.  MU Home


Net Gain/Loss So Far This Season From Last Season's Wins  = Minus 8  (Any point dropped a loss from these games, tbf)




20 Chances to gain some points in ascending order of difficulty

Rank    Fixture Possible Gain Actual Gain Possible Remaining Gain ........    .......... ........................... .......................................................... ...................................... 1.    Blackpool Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 1 2.    Fulham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 3 3.    Wigan Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 4.    WBA  Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 5 5.    Birmingham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 7 6.    Wolves Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 9 7.    Villa Home Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 10 8.    Blackburn Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 12 9.    Fulham Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 13 10.    Sunderland Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 14 11.    Man C Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 16 12.    Stoke Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 18 13.    Birmigham Away  Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil) - 14.    Man C Away    Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil;  lost 1) - 15.    Arsenal Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 16.    Spurs Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 19 17.    Chelsea Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 3) - 18.    Arsenal Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 20 19.    Chelsea Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 21 20.    MU Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained nil) -

Net Gain/Loss So Far This Season From These 20 Targets  = Plus 4


Last season, we got 54 points from our 18 wins, and 9 points from the 20 fixtures in the list above.


TARGET:  70 POINTS

At the start of the season, on the assumption we did no worse in any of the games we got points from last season,  then we would need to gain 7 points from the above list of 20 games to reach 70 points. 

If we improved last season's losses to draws, and last season's draws to wins, that would have meant improving in the first 5 games on the list (as far down as Birmingham Home).

We have already dropped 4 points (net) compared to last season.  So that means that we now would need to gain a total of 11 points from the 20 fixtures in the target list in order to reach 70 points for the season.  That would be as far down as the 8th game on the target list (Blackburn Away). 




TARGET:  75 POINTS

At the start of the season, on the assumption we did no worse in any of the games we got points from last season,  then we would need to gain 12 points from the above list of 20 games to reach 75 points. 

If we improved last season's losses to draws, and last season's draws to wins, that would have meant improving in the first 9 games on the list (as far down as Biringham Fulham Away).

We have already dropped 4 points (net) compared to last season.  So that means that we would need to gain a total of 16 points from the 20 fixtures in that list in order to reach 75 points for the season.  That would be as far down as the 11th game on the list (Man C Home).   



Wigan was our third easiest target for a GAIN.  We achieved that target.  We only gained 1 point rather than all 3.  But a gain of 1 points was all that was required to keep in line with the targets described above.

[Jack Slater]

This is how many points we would get if we matched a run-in from previous seasons, namely Rafa's 6 at LFC, and Roy's 2 at Fulham.  (He had 3 run-ins altogether at Fulham, but in 07/08 he didnt take over until December.)


76  -  If we matched LFC's last 29 games from  05/06  Last season that many points were approximately 3rd place   
73  -  If we matched LFC's last 29 games from  08/09  Approx 4th place
68  -  If we matched LFC's last 29 games from  07/08  Approx 5th place
67  -  If we matched LFC's last 29 games from  06/07  Approx 5th or 6th place
60  -  If we matched LFC's last 29 games from  09/10  Approx 9th place
59  -  If we match our results from last season in the corresponding fixtures for the remainder of the season  Approx 9th place
54  -  If we matched LFC's last 29 games from  04/05  Approx 9th place
52  -  If we matched Fulham's last 29 games from  08/09  Approx 9th place
51  -  If we continue with our current points per game rate for the remainder of the season  Approx 9th place
47  -  If we matched Fulham's last 29 games from  09/10  Approx 11th or 12th place


Obviously, the approx league positions are only a very rough indicator, and are only based on last season, and are not adjusted to take account LFC's own position last season.

[Callaghan.]

20 Chances to gain some points in ascending order of difficulty

Rank    Fixture Possible Gain Actual Gain Possible Remaining Gain ........    .......... ........................... .......................................................... ...................................... 1.    Blackpool Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 1 2.    Fulham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 3 3.    Wigan Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 4.    WBA  Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 5 5.    Birmingham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 7 6.    Wolves Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 9 7.    Villa Home Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 10 8.    Blackburn Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 12 9.    Fulham Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 13 10.    Sunderland Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 14 11.    Man C Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 16 12.    Stoke Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 18 13.    Birmigham Away  Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil) - 14.    Man C Away    Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil;  lost 1) - 15.    Arsenal Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 16.    Spurs Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 19 17.    Chelsea Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 3) - 18.    Arsenal Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 20 19.    Chelsea Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 21 20.    MU Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained nil) -

Net Gain/Loss So Far This Season From These 20 Targets  = Plus 4

Jack, I think I'm being dim. I don't understand the last column. Surely if we "Could Gain 1 or 3" then the "Possible Remaining Gain" is 3 points? So to me the table would look like below. But I'm assuming I'm wrong; I just don't get it. Can you enlighten me please?

20 Chances to gain some points in ascending order of difficulty

Rank    Fixture Possible Gain Actual Gain Possible Remaining Gain ........    .......... ........................... .......................................................... ...................................... 1.    Blackpool Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 3 2.    Fulham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 5 3.    Wigan Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 4.    WBA  Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 7 5.    Birmingham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 9 6.    Wolves Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 11 7.    Villa Home Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 14 8.    Blackburn Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 16 9.    Fulham Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 19 10.    Sunderland Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 22 11.    Man C Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 24 12.    Stoke Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 26 13.    Birmigham Away  Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil) - 14.    Man C Away    Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil;  lost 1) - 15.    Arsenal Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - 16.    Spurs Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 29 17.    Chelsea Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 3) - 18.    Arsenal Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 32 19.    Chelsea Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 35 20.    MU Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained nil) -

[Roy of the rovers]

Jack, I think I'm being dim. I don't understand the last column. Surely if we "Could Gain 1 or 3" then the "Possible Remaining Gain" is 3 points? So to me the table would look like below. But I'm assuming I'm wrong; I just don't get it. Can you enlighten me please?

I think it's his best guess - i.e. 'a possible outcome' rather than 'max possible'

[Jack Slater]

Jack, I think I'm being dim. I don't understand the last column. Surely if we "Could Gain 1 or 3" then the "Possible Remaining Gain" is 3 points? So to me the table would look like below. But I'm assuming I'm wrong; I just don't get it. Can you enlighten me please?

You're right that it's a bad choice of title for that column.

It's supposed to be a bit like the old Swingometer for the elections.

ie if you think that we could improve down as far as Villa Home, then that would be a 14 point gain, and so on.

It doesnt show us winning all those games, just improving.  So if drew last season, then yeah, we'd have to win this time to improve.  But if we lost last time, then we'd only need to draw to improve.


It's very arbitrary, obviously, for numerous reasons. 

Although it's interesting that, according to my arbitrary rankings at least, in our 20 target matches, we have only played 1 of the 12 easiest games, and we have played 5 of the 8 hardest ones.

70-75 points is still very much within reach (on paper )

[Callaghan.]

You're right that it's a bad choice of title for that column.

It's supposed to be a bit like the old Swingometer for the elections.

ie if you think that we could improve down as far as Villa Home, then that would be a 14 point gain, and so on.

It doesnt show us winning all those games, just improving.  So if drew last season, then yeah, we'd have to win this time to improve.  But if we lost last time, then we'd only need to draw to improve.


It's very arbitrary, obviously, for numerous reasons. 

Although it's interesting that, according to my arbitrary rankings at least, in our 20 target matches, we have only played 1 of the 12 easiest games, and we have played 5 of the 8 hardest ones.

70-75 points is still very much within reach (on paper )

Good explanation, thanks.

In fact I was just coming in here to say that these two quotes should have made me realise what you were getting at:

If we improved last season's losses to draws, and last season's draws to wins...

Wigan was our third easiest target for a GAIN.  We achieved that target.  We only gained 1 point rather than all 3.  But a gain of 1 points was all that was required to keep in line with the targets described above.

I can't think of a better heading for the column... "Points gain if we turn losses into draws and draws into wins" is a bit too long!

Come on Stoke, lay down for us, there's a good bunch of lads.

[Callaghan.]

How about "Target Gain"?

[Callaghan.]

Maybe even this:

20 Chances to gain some points in ascending order of difficulty

Rank    Fixture Possible Gain Actual Gain Maximum Possible Gain Target Gain ........    .......... ........................... .......................................................... ...................................... ..................... 1.    Blackpool Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 3 1 2.    Fulham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 5 3 3.    Wigan Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - - 4.    WBA  Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 7 5 5.    Birmingham Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 9 7 6.    Wolves Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 11 9 7.    Villa Home Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 14 10 8.    Blackburn Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 16 12 9.    Fulham Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 19 13 10.    Sunderland Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 22 14 11.    Man C Home  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 24 16 12.    Stoke Away  Could Gain 2    (This season    ) 26 18 13.    Birmigham Away  Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil) - - 14.    Man C Away    Could Gain 2    (This season gained nil;  lost 1) - - 15.    Arsenal Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 1) - - 16.    Spurs Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 29 19 17.    Chelsea Home  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained 3) - - 18.    Arsenal Away    Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 32 20 19.    Chelsea Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season    ) 35 21 20.    MU Away  Could Gain 1 or 3    (This season gained nil) - -

Net Gain/Loss So Far This Season From These 20 Targets  = Plus 4

[Callaghan.]

So we have 16 points from 12 games in the League this season. That's 1.33 points per game.

Here are the other 12-game sequences where we averaged 1.5 points per game or less (since 3-points-for-a-win started in 1981/82).

The points totals in bold are sequences which were equal to or worse than the current Hodgson sequence.

Manager	Year	POINTS	Results	From when to when (inclusive)	Notes
Paisley	1981/82	17	4W, 5D, 3L	Game 1 to Game 12
Paisley	1982/83	13	3W, 4D, 5L	Game 31 to Game 42
Fagan	1984/85	14	3W, 5D, 4L	Game 1 to Game 12
Dalglish	1985/86	14	3W, 5D, 4L	Game 19 to Game 30
Dalglish	1986/87	18	5W, 3D, 4L	Game 7 to Game 18
Dalglish	1987/88	18	4W, 6D, 2L	Game 29 to Game 40
Dalglish	1988/89	14	3W, 5D, 4L	Game 6 to Game 17
Dalglish	1990/91	16	4W, 4D, 4L	Game 15 to Game 26
Souness	1991/92	16	3W, 7D, 2L	Game 6 to Game 17
Souness	1991/92	12	3W, 3D, 6L	Game 27 to Game 38	Became 13 points from 14 games
Souness	1992/93	13	3W, 4D, 5L	Game 1 to Game 12
Souness	1992/93	11	2W, 5D, 5L	Game 18 to Game 29	Became 11 points from 13 games
Souness	1993/94	14	4W, 2D, 6L	Game 4 to Game 15
Souness	1993/94	18	4W, 6D, 2L	Game 18 to Game 29	Evans took over that season after Game 26
Evans	1993/94	13	4W, 1D, 7L	Game 31 to Game 42	Part of 17 points from 16 games
Evans	1994/95	18	4W, 6D, 2L	Game 15 to Game 26
Evans	1995/96	16	4W, 4D, 4L	Game 5 to Game 16
Evans	1996/97	16	4W, 2D, 4L	Game 27 to Game 38
Evans	1997/98	15	3W, 6D, 3L	Game 24 to Game 35
Houllier	1998/99	12	3W, 3D, 6L	Game 5 to Game 16	Became 12 points from 13 games. First 12 games in 98/99 were Houllier/Evans.
Houllier	1998/99	12	3W, 3D, 6L	Game 22 to Game 33
Houllier	1999/00	18	5W, 3D, 4L	Game 1 to Game 12
Houllier	2000/01	17	4W, 5D, 3L	Game 20 to Game 31
Houllier	2001/02	17	4W, 5D, 3L	Game 13 to Game 24
Houllier	2002/03	8	1W, 5D, 6L	Game 12 to Game 23	Became 13 points from 16 games
Houllier	2003/04	17	5W, 2D, 5L	Game 1 to Game 12
Houllier	2003/04	18	4W, 6D, 2L	Game 13 to Game 24
Houllier	2003/04	17	4W, 5D, 3L	Game 21 to Game 32
Benítez	2004/05	18	5W, 3D, 4L	Game 6 to Game 17
Benítez	2004/05	16	5W, 1D, 6L	Game 21 to Game 32
Benítez	2004/05	15	4W, 3D, 5L	Game 27 to Game 38	We were in latter stages of CL at the time
Benítez	2005/06	18	5W, 3D, 4L	Game 18 to Game 29
Benítez	2006/07	17	5W, 2D, 5L	Game 2 to Game 13
Benítez	2006/07	18	5W, 3D, 4L	Game 26 to Game 37
Benítez	2007/08	17	4W, 5D, 3L	Game 14 to Game 25
Benítez	2009/10	15	4W, 3D, 5L	Game 7 to Game 18
Benítez	2009/10	18	5W, 3D, 4L	Game 26 to Game 37

And (as already mentioned by Jack Slater) from the days of 2 points for a win (converted to 3 points for a win)...

Manager	Year	POINTS	Results	From when to when (inclusive)	Notes
Paisley	1974/75	22	4W, 10D, 6L	Game 15 to Game 34	A 20-game sequence averaging 1.1 points per game, during Bob Paisley's first season in charge

I am NOT having a go at Rafa. I like Rafa. You won't find a post from me calling for his head or anything near that sort of thing. I'm not 'comparing' Hodgson to Paisley.

I'm just presenting some facts that you can take or leave.

I just think it's premature to be telling Roy, "Fuck off ... such a wank manager ... fucking clueless ... useless old duffer ... fuckwit  manager ... i would be happy to drive him out of liverpool too and tell him never to set foot inside the city again" and all the rest of it.

[Jack Slater]

Burnley Last = NewcastleThis   
Hull Last = West Brom This   
Portsmouth Last = Blackpool This   

DATE	OPPONENT	H/A	LAST SEASON	THIS SEASON	DIFF (PTS, GS, GA, GD)
--------------	------------	-----------	-------------------	----------------------	------------------------------
15.08.2010	Arsenal	home	L1-2	D1-1	(1, 0, 1, 1)
23.08.2010	Manchester City	away	D0-0	L0-3	(-1, 0, -3, -3)
29.08.2010	West Bromwich Albion	home	W6-1	W1-0	(0, -5, 1, -4)
12.09.2010	Birmingham City	away	D1-1	D0-0	(0, -1, 1, 0)
19.09.2010	Manchester United	away	L1-2	L2-3	(0, 1, -1, 0)
25.09.2010	Sunderland	home	W3-0	D2-2	(-2, -, -2, -3)
02.10.2010	Blackpool	home	W4-1	L1-2	(-3,  -3, -1, -4)
17.10.2010	Everton	away	W2-0	L0-2	(-3, -2, -2, -4)
23.10.2010	Blackburn Rovers	home	W2-1	W2-1	(0, 0, 0, 0)
31.10.2010	Bolton Wanderers	away	W3-2	W1-0	(0, -2, +2, 0)
07.11.2010	Chelsea	home	L0-2	W2-0	(+3, +2, +2, +4)
10.11.2010	Wigan Athletic	away	L0-1	D1-1	(1, 1, 0, 1)
13.11.2010	Stoke City	away	D1-1	L0-2	(-1, -1, -1, -2)
20.11.2010	West Ham United	home	W3-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.11.2010	Tottenham Hotspur	away	L1-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
04.12.2010	Aston Villa	home	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
11.12.2010	Newcastle United	away	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
18.12.2010	Fulham	home	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.12.2010	Blackpool	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.12.2010	Wolverhampton Wndrs	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
01.01.2011	Bolton Wanderers	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.01.2011	Blackburn Rovers	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.01.2011	Everton	home	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.01.2011	Wolverhampton Wndrs	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.02.2011	Stoke City	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.02.2011	Chelsea	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
12.02.2011	Wigan Athletic	home	W2-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.02.2011	West Ham United	away	W3-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.03.2011	Manchester United	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
19.03.2011	Sunderland	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.04.2011	West Bromwich Albion	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
10.04.2011	Manchester City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
16.04.2011	Arsenal	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
23.04.2011	Birmingham City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
30.04.2011	Newcastle United	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
07.05.2011	Fulham	away	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.05.2011	Tottenham Hotspur	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.05.2011	Aston Villa	away	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)

Dropped Points Last Season

6  -  2 teams  (Chelsea, Arsenal)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 4.  Dropped = 2]
5  -  1 team  (Fulham)
4  -  2 teams  (Man C, Birmingham)  [Points Played For So far:  6.   Taken = 1.  Dropped = 5]
3  -  6 teams  (Spurs, Villa, Sunderland, Blackpool, Wigan, Man Utd)  [Points Played For So far: 12.  Taken = 2.  Dropped = 10]
2  -  4 teams (Blackburn, Stoke, Wolves, West Brom)  [Points Played For So far: 9.  Taken = 6.  Dropped = 3]
0  -  4 teams (Bolton, Newcastle, West Ham, Everton)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 3.  Dropped = 3]




Net Difference So Far Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season

Points = -5

Wins = -2
Draws = +1
Losses = +1

Goals For  =  minus 11
Goals Against =  minus 3 ('minus' means 'worse' ie more conceded)
Goal Difference = minus 14


Last Season, our away games against Stoke and Wigan brought 1 point.  By only matching that this time, we have missed out on a significant opportunity to make up ground.

[DaveCharlie]

Net Difference So Far Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season

Points = -5

Wins = -2
Draws = +1
Losses = +1

Goals For  =  minus 11
Goals Against =  minus 3 ('minus' means 'worse' ie more conceded)
Goal Difference = minus 14

Rafa out... no, wait... what?

[stanleylhs]

Saw this on Facebook,

[DonkeyWan]

Saw this on Facebook,

I would trust it a lot more if I they had spelled 'Working' right

[lachesis]

I would trust it a lot more if I they had spelled 'Working' right

It's meant to be a pisstake of Roy with a 'w'.

As far it goes it's utter shite. Evans on a par with Houllier? Shite.

[Jack Slater]

Burnley Last = NewcastleThis   
Hull Last = West Brom This   
Portsmouth Last = Blackpool This   

DATE	OPPONENT	H/A	LAST SEASON	THIS SEASON	DIFF (PTS, GS, GA, GD)
--------------	------------	-----------	-------------------	----------------------	------------------------------
15.08.2010	Arsenal	home	L1-2	D1-1	(1, 0, 1, 1)
23.08.2010	Manchester City	away	D0-0	L0-3	(-1, 0, -3, -3)
29.08.2010	West Bromwich Albion	home	W6-1	W1-0	(0, -5, 1, -4)
12.09.2010	Birmingham City	away	D1-1	D0-0	(0, -1, 1, 0)
19.09.2010	Manchester United	away	L1-2	L2-3	(0, 1, -1, 0)
25.09.2010	Sunderland	home	W3-0	D2-2	(-2, -, -2, -3)
02.10.2010	Blackpool	home	W4-1	L1-2	(-3,  -3, -1, -4)
17.10.2010	Everton	away	W2-0	L0-2	(-3, -2, -2, -4)
23.10.2010	Blackburn Rovers	home	W2-1	W2-1	(0, 0, 0, 0)
31.10.2010	Bolton Wanderers	away	W3-2	W1-0	(0, -2, +2, 0)
07.11.2010	Chelsea	home	L0-2	W2-0	(+3, +2, +2, +4)
10.11.2010	Wigan Athletic	away	L0-1	D1-1	(1, 1, 0, 1)
13.11.2010	Stoke City	away	D1-1	L0-2	(-1, -1, -1, -2)
20.11.2010	West Ham United	home	W3-0	W3-0	(0, 0, 0, 0)
28.11.2010	Tottenham Hotspur	away	L1-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
04.12.2010	Aston Villa	home	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
11.12.2010	Newcastle United	away	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
18.12.2010	Fulham	home	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.12.2010	Blackpool	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
28.12.2010	Wolverhampton Wndrs	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
01.01.2011	Bolton Wanderers	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.01.2011	Blackburn Rovers	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.01.2011	Everton	home	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.01.2011	Wolverhampton Wndrs	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.02.2011	Stoke City	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.02.2011	Chelsea	away	L0-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
12.02.2011	Wigan Athletic	home	W2-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
26.02.2011	West Ham United	away	W3-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
05.03.2011	Manchester United	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
19.03.2011	Sunderland	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
02.04.2011	West Bromwich Albion	away	D0-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
10.04.2011	Manchester City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
16.04.2011	Arsenal	away	L0-1	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
23.04.2011	Birmingham City	home	D2-2	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
30.04.2011	Newcastle United	home	W4-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
07.05.2011	Fulham	away	L1-3	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
15.05.2011	Tottenham Hotspur	home	W2-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)
22.05.2011	Aston Villa	away	W1-0	TBA	(X, X, X, X)

Dropped Points Last Season

6  -  2 teams  (Chelsea, Arsenal)  [Points Played For So far: 6.  Taken = 4.  Dropped = 2]
5  -  1 team  (Fulham)
4  -  2 teams  (Man C, Birmingham)  [Points Played For So far:  6.   Taken = 1.  Dropped = 5]
3  -  6 teams  (Spurs, Villa, Sunderland, Blackpool, Wigan, Man Utd)  [Points Played For So far: 12.  Taken = 2.  Dropped = 10]
2  -  4 teams (Blackburn, Stoke, Wolves, West Brom)  [Points Played For So far: 9.  Taken = 6.  Dropped = 3]
0  -  4 teams (Bolton, Newcastle, West Ham, Everton)  [Points Played For So far: 9.  Taken = 6.  Dropped = 3]




Net Difference So Far Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season

Points = -5

Wins = -2
Draws = +1
Losses = +1

Goals For  =  minus 11
Goals Against =  minus 3 ('minus' means 'worse' ie more conceded)
Goal Difference = minus 14


Exactly the same as last season vs West Ham at home.  So no net effect.


Timewise, after 14 games last season, we were in 5th place (so 4 places higher) and had 23 points (so 4 more).

To some extent, we were 2 points off 4th place, as opposed to the 3 points currently.  So 1 point better than last season at first glance.

However, last season Arsenal had a game in hand.  Eventually they won their 14th game, so truly (although we didnt know it) we were actually 3 points off 4th after we had played 14 games last season.  (We were 3 points behind Spurs, and truly more than 3 behind MU, CHE, ARS).

Similarly, this season, City currently have  a game in hand.  If they draw, then we're 4 points off 4th.  If they win, we're 6 back.

[Jack Slater]

We now have a run of 3 games from which we got 1 point in total last season, so plenty of chances to improve coming up

Our next 6 games only give us 4 of last season's points to defend.

And it is only 8 points from our next 9 games.


So if we get 16 points from our next 9 games, we will be back to matching the points from last season in the season's corresponding fixtures.

So can we get (better than) 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses (or 4 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) from the following


07.11.2010 Chelsea home
10.11.2010 Wigan Athletic away
13.11.2010 Stoke City away
20.11.2010 West Ham United home
28.11.2010 Tottenham Hotspur away
04.12.2010 Aston Villa home
11.12.2010 Newcastle United away
18.12.2010 Fulham home
26.12.2010 Blackpool away

Out of the 9 games mentioned, we have now played 4, of course.  W, D, L, W.   7 points.

So we need 9 more points to reach break even point compared to last season.

So either 3 wins and 2 defeats would do that, or else 2 wins and 3 draws.

For me personally, if we beat Villa, Fulham, Blackpool and get at least one point out of Spurs and Newcastle (combined), then that would put us in an acceptable position at the half way stage.

We would be one point better on the Equivalent Matches, and one point worse on the Time Comparison.  (Hopefully JP65 will post his full analysis at some point).

Obviously the point can be made that last season was pretty poor (ending 7th), and we need to improve on that rather than be very slightly worse, or very slightly better.

It is a valid point.  However, imho, there are 2 other relevant issues. 

Firstly, if we did manage 10 points from our next 5, then that would mean we were on a run of 23 points from 11 games.  ie our form would be decent, and good enough for 4th or 5th if maintained over the second half of the season.

Secondly, last season our points total was obviously lower than we aspire to, and we obviously want to improve it.  However, historically, 63 points has almost always been good enough to finish higher than 7th.  It is usually 5th or 6th.  However, since the league went back to 38 games, 63 points has been good enough for 4th place 4 times, and bad enough for 7th only twice (including last season).  The other 9 seasons, it was either 5th or 6th.

We certainly need to improve our GD though.  If we are going to end up with around 63 points (and I acknowledge that will require a big improvement in our Points Per Game ratio to date) then GD could make the difference between being in Europe or not.

[shockwave_dave]

Good work Jack!

Thanks for doing this

[Gnurglan]

As always, a good follow-up of our progress. Keep up the good work!

[dgoh]

That's way too much data even for a stats major like me.

Great effort!

[Lawnmowerman]

Good work

[JP-65]

OK, Jack's prodded me to start submitting again, here's the time summaries, it'll take a little longer to get the equivalent match database up-to-date:

Interesting that only 2 teams, Bolton & West Brom, have a significant variance to the positive, and all European qualified teams are in the negative, other than City who are at 0 difference.

There's also the possibility that no teams will get to 80 points this season!

[Callaghan.]

Thanks, JP-65.

[Jack Slater]

.., here's the time summaries, it'll take a little longer to get the equivalent match database up-to-date

Good to have you back.

Interesting that only 2 teams, Bolton & West Brom, have a significant variance to the positive, and all European qualified teams are in the negative, other than City who are at 0 difference.

Very strange, that.    Looking at that alone, it almost appears as if WBA and Bolton are solely responsible for the teams being so squashed up.

True enough, WBA have made Arse drop 3 points, and MU & Spurs drop 2 each  (while taking nothing off Chelsea, City or ourselves).

Not quite as true of Bolton though.  2 points off MU, and that's about it (unless we count Villa).

Either way, we have taken maximum points off these teams.  It'd be great if they did go through everybody else like wrecking ball.

There's also the possibility that no teams will get to 80 points this season!

I think at least two will.  CL qualification is now out of the way for Chelsea & MU.  Sadly, I think they'll at least one of them will put in strong performances for the next couple of months.  My pick would be Chelsea.

Likewise, I think at least one of Spurs, City and Arsenal will do so too.    My pick would be City.


You could be right though.  Maybe there will be a struggle for one of them to reach 80.  That would be a real kick in the teeth, eh.  For the title to be won with a point tally that Rafa beat twice.

[subroc]

It's meant to be a pisstake of Roy with a 'w'.

As far it goes it's utter shite. Evans on a par with Houllier? Shite.

Why is it rubbish? Shouldn't the question be whether the % numbers that that graph relies on is correct?

[surfer]

Why is it rubbish? Shouldn't the question be whether the % numbers that that graph relies on is correct?

I checked up on lfchistory.net.
The win percentage for Evans - 51.33
The win percentage for Houllier - 51.47

Both measured for when they had sole reign.

 

[Vinay]

For the v/s team comparison, does it mean that if we lose against Spurs, we wouldn't be worse off?

[redtel]

I agree that GD could make a difference to final league position this season.

With no midweek game after WHU we should have gone for at least 2 more goals in the second half.
It showed lack of confidence against a very poor team anchored to the foot of the table. Subs could have been made after securing a big win. The table is very compressed and could remain so for months yet.

[GIPPO77]

When do Sky/ESPN pick the next set of matches to be televised?

[Andichrist]

For the v/s team comparison, does it mean that if we lose against Spurs, we wouldn't be worse off?

We lost to Spurs away last season. So no.

Let's not forget, though, that we were supposed to improve on last season - they wouldn't have fired the manager if the season was satisfactory, would they? So my question to all the calculatin' people: What would our reasonable aim in terms of points be if the target is 4th? I.e. how many points are, on average, needed to get 4th place?

[redtel]

We lost to Spurs away last season. So no.

Let's not forget, though, that we were supposed to improve on last season - they wouldn't have fired the manager if the season was satisfactory, would they? So my question to all the calculatin' people: What would our reasonable aim in terms of points be if the target is 4th? I.e. how many points are, on average, needed to get 4th place?

It's here;

Out of the 9 games mentioned, we have now played 4, of course.  W, D, L, W.   7 points.

So we need 9 more points to reach break even point compared to last season.

So either 3 wins and 2 defeats would do that, or else 2 wins and 3 draws.

For me personally, if we beat Villa, Fulham, Blackpool and get at least one point out of Spurs and Newcastle (combined), then that would put us in an acceptable position at the half way stage.

We would be one point better on the Equivalent Matches, and one point worse on the Time Comparison.  (Hopefully JP65 will post his full analysis at some point).

Obviously the point can be made that last season was pretty poor (ending 7th), and we need to improve on that rather than be very slightly worse, or very slightly better.

It is a valid point.  However, imho, there are 2 other relevant issues. 

Firstly, if we did manage 10 points from our next 5, then that would mean we were on a run of 23 points from 11 games.  ie our form would be decent, and good enough for 4th or 5th if maintained over the second half of the season.

Secondly, last season our points total was obviously lower than we aspire to, and we obviously want to improve it.  However, historically, 63 points has almost always been good enough to finish higher than 7th.  It is usually 5th or 6th.  However, since the league went back to 38 games, 63 points has been good enough for 4th place 4 times, and bad enough for 7th only twice (including last season).  The other 9 seasons, it was either 5th or 6th.

We certainly need to improve our GD though.  If we are going to end up with around 63 points (and I acknowledge that will require a big improvement in our Points Per Game ratio to date) then GD could make the difference between being in Europe or not.

*************

[Callaghan.]

...

So my question to all the calculatin' people: What would our reasonable aim in terms of points be if the target is 4th? I.e. how many points are, on average, needed to get 4th place?

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2009-2010/table
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2008-2009/table

etc.