When people have been looking at potential buyers coming in, most have forgotted that just over two years ago, in a world that had never heard of the phrase "credit crunch", a relatively debt free Liverpool Football Club was purchased for just under £175 million.
All this talk of £400 million and £500 million was created by the owners - the only people in the world who placed that valuation on the club were Hicks and Gillett and, probably, though only out of sheer desperation, us. Not a single buyer thought it was worth that much. Then came the collapse of the world banking system and a pile of nails hammered into the coffin of the Hicks/Gillett LBO model that we are now lumbered with.
I'd guess that the club is probably now worth about £220million. The big problem is the debt. In order to sell, Hicks and Gillett would want to both get a profit on their £180 million initial outlay (purchase price plus expenses incurred), although they have already had that paid back to them via the loans, and clear the debts against the group of companies they have set up, from Cayman to Kop Holdings to Kop Football. To simply break even on that objective, I think they they would need to sell for something like £580 million! To sell the club at something like it's current value, as well as pay off the debts, I reckon you're looking at £620 million!
With that in mind, and the state of the global economy, I don't reckon there's any rescue on the horizon.
Our best hope is some sort of RBS takeover, with the banks and yanks taking a hit on the debt as the group collapses. The Yanks would lose whatever they reckon they've put in and the bank may be able to get £300-odd million for selling the club on.
Given that scenario, it's no wonder both sides keep putting off the day of reckoning. That'll probably be another six months then!
