Topic: The Results Comparison 2008/09

[JP-65]

The boxing day fixtures and last season's results:

Friday, 26 December 2008

Aston Villa v Arsenal, Villa L, Arsenal W
Chelsea v West Brom, Chelsea W
Liverpool v Bolton, Liverpool W
Man City v Hull, Hull L
Middlesbrough v Everton, Everton W
Portsmouth v West Ham, Pompey D
Stoke v Man Utd, Man Utd W
Sunderland v Blackburn, Blackburn W
Tottenham v Fulham, Spurs W
Wigan v Newcastle, Wigan W

For the time comps, it was a win for Man Utd, and draws for Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal

[aggerdid]

originally i had the 90 points mark set in my head and after the first 10 games of the season we had dropped around 7 points and things were on course but lately the big four all seem to be dropping points more often than usual. now i could see anyone with 80 points in with a shout.

[LCDP]

The boxing day fixtures and last season's results:

Friday, 26 December 2008

Aston Villa v Arsenal, Villa L, Arsenal W
Chelsea v West Brom, Chelsea W
Liverpool v Bolton, Liverpool W
Man City v Hull, Hull L
Middlesbrough v Everton, Everton W
Portsmouth v West Ham, Pompey D
Stoke v Man Utd, Man Utd W
Sunderland v Blackburn, Blackburn W
Tottenham v Fulham, Spurs W
Wigan v Newcastle, Wigan W

For the time comps, it was a win for Man Utd, and draws for Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal

Would be great to see Villa to do the double over Arse and start to get a gap between the two of them.

Sunderland v Blackburn - a couple of weeks ago that would have been a dire affair but it may turn in to a half decent game because of their change in fortunes.

[JP-65]

Would be great to see Villa to do the double over Arse and start to get a gap between the two of them.

Sunderland v Blackburn - a couple of weeks ago that would have been a dire affair but it may turn in to a half decent game because of their change in fortunes.

Prefer a draw with us winning, and picking up 2 on both of them.

[farawayred]

Would be great to see Villa to do the double over Arse and start to get a gap between the two of them.

I don't want that. I want the Gooners to give them a good whipping, and come May they AND BARRY miss on a CL spot, then we buy Young and Agbonlahor.

[JP-65]

5 Year summaries:

[JP-65]

Here's the Top 4 summary after 19 matches:

05/06: Chelsea led with 52 points, and won the league
06/07: Man Utd led with 47 points, and won the league
07/08: Man Utd led with 45 points, and won the league.
08/09: Liverpool lead with 42 points.

If 87 points wins this season, Arsenal are almost mathematically out of it!

[JP-65]

The time comps:

[JP-65]

Equivalent match comps:

[JP-65]

Upcoming matches and last season's results:

Sunday, 28 December 2008

Arsenal v Portsmouth, Arsenal W
Blackburn v Man City, Blackburn W
Bolton v Wigan, Bolton W
Everton v Sunderland, Everton W
Fulham v Chelsea, Chelsea W  Fulham on 8 game PL unbeaten streak, keep it up
Newcastle v Liverpool, Liverpool W
West Brom v Tottenham, Spurs W
West Ham v Stoke, West Ham D

Monday, 29 December 2008

Man Utd v Middlesbrough, Man Utd W

Tuesday, 30 December 2008

Hull v Aston Villa, Villa W


For the time comps it was wins for Man Utd, Chelsea & Arsenal and a draw for Liverpool

[Shanks1965]

Game for Game comparison comparing only the points from the same fixtures played.

Liverpool v Man United
Comparison from 13 'common' fixtures so far including the 'head to head' at Anfield.
Liverpool     26pts (next game Newcastle away - United haven't played the Geordies away yet)
Man United  25pts (next game Boro home - we beat Boro at Anfield)
Liverpool have 5 wins and 1 draw in hand over United (16pts)
United have 3 wins and 1 draw  in hand over Liverpool (10pts)

Liverpool v Chelsea
Comparison from 7 'common' fixtures so far including the 'head to head' at the Bridge.
Liverpool     22pts (next game Newcastle away - Chelsea haven't played the Geordies away yet)
Chelsea       15pts (next game Fulham away - we havent played Fulham away yet)
Liverpool have 5 wins, 5 draws & 1 defeat in hand over Chelsea (20 pts)
Chelsea have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in hand over Liverpool (26 pts)

Liverpool v Arsenal
Comparison from 11 'common' fixtures so far including the head to head at Arsenal
Liverpool     27pts (next game Newcastle away - Arseanl haven't played the Geordies away yet)
Arsenal        21pts (next game Pompey at home - we beat Pompey at Anfield)
Liverpool have 4 wins, 3 draws & 1 defeat in hand over Arsenal (15 pts)
Arsenal have 3 wins, 2 draws & 3 defeats in hand over Liverpool (11 pts)   

Liverpool v Villa
Comparison from 9 'common' fixtures so far including the head to head at Villa Park)
Liverpool     18pts (next game Newcastle away - Villa lost away to the Geordies)
Villa           16pts (next game Hull away - we haven't played Hull away yet)
Liverpool have 7 wins, 3 draws in hand over Villa (24 pts)
Villa have 6 wins, 1 draw & 3 defeats in hand over Liverpool (19 pts)   

[Anthony]

Another bump for my chart...



(Scroll to the right for table key)

Sadly, my 4th line has now appeared! The black line at the top is the maximum number of points we can now gain (currently 99)

[-HH-]

IF we can win tomorrow, we'll be only level pegging on the equivalent match comparison. However, this would be what we'd have left:


10 Jan, 2009 Stoke City Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 2 - 2
17 Jan, 2009 Everton Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 1 - 0
27 Jan, 2009 Wigan Athletic Barclays Premier League A 20:00 Last season 1 - 0
31 Jan, 2009 Chelsea Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 1 - 1
07 Feb, 2009 Portsmouth Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 0 - 0
21 Feb, 2009 Manchester City Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 1 - 0
28 Feb, 2009 Middlesbrough Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 1 - 1
04 Mar, 2009 Sunderland Barclays Premier League H 20:00 Last season 3 - 0
14 Mar, 2009 Manchester United Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 0 - 3
21 Mar, 2009 Aston Villa Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 2 - 2
04 Apr, 2009 Fulham Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 2 - 0
11 Apr, 2009 Blackburn Rovers Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 3 - 1
18 Apr, 2009 Arsenal Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 1 - 1
25 Apr, 2009 Hull City Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 2 - 1
02 May, 2009 Newcastle United Barclays Premier League H 15:00 Last season 3 - 0
09 May, 2009 West Ham United Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 0 - 1
16 May, 2009 West Brom Barclays Premier League A 15:00 Last season 1 - 3
24 May, 2009 Tottenham Hotspur Barclays Premier League H 16:00 Last season 2 - 2

31 points from the remaining 18 games. 8 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats. More games to improve on than there are that we can't. Got to at least consider ourselves likely to finish with more points this season than last.

[JP-65]

The 5 year comps:

[JP-65]

Here's the Top 4 summary after 20 matches:

05/06: Chelsea led with 55 points, and won the league
06/07: Man Utd led with 50 points, and won the league
07/08: Man Utd led with 45 points, and won the league.
08/09: Liverpool lead with 45 points.

[Shanks1965]

Game for Game comparison comparing only the points from the same fixtures played.

Liverpool v Man United
Comparison from 13 'common' fixtures so far including the 'head to head' at Anfield.
Liverpool     26pts (next game Stoke away - United won at Stoke)
Man United  25pts (next game Boro home - we beat Boro at Anfield)
Liverpool have 6 wins and 1 draw in hand over United (19pts)
United have 3 wins and 1 draw in hand over Liverpool (10pts)

Liverpool v Chelsea
Comparison from 8 'common' fixtures so far including the 'head to head' at the Bridge.
Liverpool     22pts (next game Stoke away - Chelsea won at Stoke)
Chelsea       15pts (next game Man U away - we havent played at Old Trafford)
Liverpool have 6 wins, 5 draws & 1 defeat in hand over Chelsea (23 pts)
Chelsea have 8 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in hand over Liverpool (27 pts)

Liverpool v Arsenal
Comparison from 13 'common' fixtures so far including the head to head at Arsenal
Liverpool     33pts (next game Stoke away - Arsenal lost at Stoke)
Arsenal        27pts (next game Bolton home - we beat Bolton at Anfield)
Liverpool have 3 wins, 3 draws & 1 defeat in hand over Arsenal (12 pts)
Arsenal have 2 wins, 2 draws & 3 defeats in hand over Liverpool (8 pts)   

Liverpool v Villa
Comparison from 10 'common' fixtures so far including the head to head at Villa Park)
Liverpool     21pts (next game Stoke away - Villa lost away to Stoke)
Villa           16pts (next game Hull away - we haven't played Hull away yet)
Liverpool have 7 wins, 3 draws in hand over Villa (24 pts)
Villa have 7 wins, 1 draw & 2 defeats in hand over Liverpool (22pts)   

[JP-65]

The time comps:

Tied with Man Utd now, and closing in on Chelsea

[JP-65]

The equivalent match comps:

Quite different looking from the time ones, Man Utd still with a clear lead, but Chelsea now down to joint 4th

[Jack Slater]

The equivalent match comps:

Quite different looking from the time ones, Man Utd still with a clear lead, but Chelsea now down to joint 4th

Interesting.  It's good to keep our feet on the ground, because - from one perspective at least - our position owes a lot to Chelsea's (& Arsenal's) failings, and the fact that MU have played comparatively few games.

Having said that, as last year's highest points scorers, MU have got more to lose and less to gain on the equivalent match charts.  They have 3 games in hand on us, but they may well need to win all 3 simply to keep pace with how they did in 07/08.  In other words, their games in hand might be keeping them in a falsely high position in the equivalent games chart.  [/clutchingatstraws]

[JP-65]

Interesting.  It's good to keep our feet on the ground, because - from one perspective at least - our position owes a lot to Chelsea's (& Arsenal's) failings, and the fact that MU have played comparatively few games.

Having said that, as last year's highest points scorers, MU have got more to lose and less to gain on the equivalent match charts.  They have 3 games in hand on us, but they may well need to win all 3 simply to keep pace with how they did in 07/08.  In other words, their games in hand might be keeping them in a falsely high position in the equivalent games chart.  [/clutchingatstraws]

So true, and Fulham /Wigan have both been playing well, so no guarantee they'll take all the points.

[Jack Slater]

This season is our third best EVER start (for 20 games).  Although, of course, 3 points for a win only came in in 81/82.

Liverpool's highest Points for first 20 games:

1.  1987/88  -  50 points  [finished 1st:  90 points from 40 games]  - Dalglish
2.  1990/91  -  48 points  [finished 2nd:  76 points from 38 games]  - Dalglish
3.  2008/09  -  45 points .............................................  - Benitez
3.  1985/86  -  44 points  [finished 1st:  88 points from 42 games]  - Dalglish
3.  2005/06  -  44 points  [finished 3rd:  82 points from 38 games]  - Benitez
5.  1982/83  -  43 points  [finished 1st:  82 points from 42 games]  - Paisley


Average 20 game total

Dalglish  (44, 35, 50, 31, 38, 48)  =  41
Souness (33, 28, 31) =  30.67
Evans (36, 35, 39, 37) =  36.75
Houllier (31, 37, 33, 38, 33, 32)  =  34
Benitez (34, 44, 34, 38, 45)  =  39




Our best starts for 21 games:

1.  1987/88  -  53 points  [finished 1st:  90 points from 40 games]
2.  1990/91  -  49 points  [finished 2nd:  76 points from 38 games]
3.  1982/83  -  44 points  [finished 1st:  82 points from 42 games]
3.  1983/84  -  44 points  [finished 1st:  80 points from 42 games]
3.  1985/86  -  44 points  [finished 1st:  88 points from 42 games]
3.  2005/06  -  44 points  [finished 3rd:  82 points from 38 games]

[Xabier Alonso Olano]

So true, and Fulham /Wigan have both been playing well, so no guarantee they'll take all the points.

Very true.

Esp as Fulhams defensive record, impressive and their defence is letting them build and climb without scoring mass amounts of goals.

Interesting that United were on 45 points after the 20 game mark. If we can go the next 18 games with only one defeat, we should be very close.

Good work on the thread, keep it up.

[Jack Slater]

The myth that we "always" have a better second half to the season

Media pundits, RAWK posters, and even Sammy Lee are fond of claiming that we always have a stronger finish after a comparatively weak start.

This season we got 42 points from the first 19 games.  It's very reassuring to think that we'll get even more in the second 19 games, thus ending up with a few more than 84 points - especially since 84 points would have only been enough to take 2 titles in the 21st century (02/03 being the most recent).

Unfortunately, history doesnt quite live up to the legend.

In Rafa's time, we have only once got more points in the second 19 than in the first.  That was last season (39 and 37 respectively).

In 2005/06 and in 2006/07, we got exactly the same points in each half.

In 2004/05, we actually got 4 points less in the second 19 (31 and 27).


Overall, since we last won the title:

The first half season has been better 9 times (out of 18).

Both halves have been exactly the same 3 times.

Only on 6 occasions have we got more points in the second half of the season than in the first.  (3 for Houllier, 1 each for Souness, Evans and Rafa).

 

[JP-65]

The myth that we "always" have a better second half to the season

Media pundits, RAWK posters, and even Sammy Lee are fond of claiming that we always have a stronger finish after a comparatively weak start.

This season we got 42 points from the first 19 games.  It's very reassuring to think that we'll get even more in the second 19 games, thus ending up with a few more than 84 points - especially since 84 points would have only been enough to take 2 titles in the 21st century (02/03 being the most recent).

Unfortunately, history doesnt quite live up to the legend.

In Rafa's time, we have only once got more points in the second 19 than in the first.  That was last season (39 and 37 respectively).

In 2005/06 and in 2006/07, we got exactly the same points in each half.

In 2004/05, we actually got 4 points less in the second 19 (31 and 27).


Overall, since we last won the title:

The first half season has been better 9 times (out of 18).

Both halves have been exactly the same 3 times.

Only on 6 occasions have we got more points in the second half of the season than in the first.  (3 for Houllier, 1 each for Souness, Evans and Rafa).

 

I'll check my database, but I believe you're being too literal.....IMO (my impression) is that we've been much better after the mid season transfer window, not a strict 1st half vs 2nd half.

[Jack Slater]

Here is how Liverpool's title winning campaigns have started, with totals from before 81/82 converted to the 3 point system. 

These comparisons dont have much (or any) predictive value for how well our current season will finish.  But it's interesting to see how much times have changed.  Our current 14 game start is better than in 16 of our 18 championship winning years.  [Obviously, this is a slightly unfair comment, because those teams would have won more games if there had been 3 points on offer - but even so, it shows how well the current lot are doing.]



Total after 20 games


50  -  1987/88  (were in 1st place)

45  -  1978/79  (1st)

44  -  1985/86  (2nd)

43  -  1922/23  (1st)
43  -  1972/73  (1st)
43  -  1982/83  (1st)

42  -  1965/66  (1st)
42  -  1979/80  (1st)

41  -  1963/64  (1st)
41  -  1983/84  (1st)

40  -  1946/47  (2nd)

39  -  1976/77  (2nd)

38  -  1905/06  (3rd)
38  -  1989/90  (1st)

36  -  1921/22  (1st)

35  -  1975/76  (5th)

34  -  1900/01  (6th)

33  -  1981/82  (5th)

So after 20 games this season, we have the same points as 78/79 (if that was converted to the 3 point system).

In only one of our eighteen winning seasons did we have more than 45 points at the 20 game mark.


Total after 25 games


63  -  1987/88  (were in 1st place)

60  -  1978/79  (1st)

56  -  1922/23  (1st)
56  -  1982/83  (1st)

54  -  1972/73  (1st)

52  -  1965/66  (1st)
52  -  1979/80  (1st)

51  -  1983/84  (1st)

50  -  1963/64  (3rd)

49  -  1989/90  (1st)

48  -  1905/06  (1st)

47  -  1921/22  (1st)
47  -  1976/77  (1st)
47  -  1985/86  (3rd)

46  -  1975/76  (3rd)

45  -  1981/82  (4th)

43  -  1946/47  (5th)

41  -  1900/01  (6th)

[Jack Slater]

I'll check my database, but I believe you're being too literal.....IMO (my impression) is that we've been much better after the mid season transfer window, not a strict 1st half vs 2nd half.

If it was measured by league position, then I wouldnt be surprised if we often improve.  Each season there is often one team that flies high for a while, but cannot last the pace over a whole season (an Everton, a Spurs, etc).

However, this year we are obviously top already, so even if the likes of Hull and Villa blow up, it cannot help us gain places.


For Rafa's first 4 seasons, our "improvement" for the second 19 games has been:  minus 4, zero, zero, plus 2.

Anyone want to do the other Big 3 teams for the same period?  I havent checked, so for all I know, they have done worse.

[Gnurglan]

The equivalent match comps:

Quite different looking from the time ones, Man Utd still with a clear lead, but Chelsea now down to joint 4th

The Mancs are still the main threat, but it's nice to see that we at least force them to perform if they want to be top.

[Jack Slater]

We have 45 points after 20 games.

We are the 18th team to have at least 45 points after the first 20 games.

Of the previous 17:
9 have taken the title;
5 were runners-up;
2 were third;
Racist Ron's team came 4th.

Perhaps surprisingly, only 53% of the teams to have achieved 45 points from 20 games have become champions.

Whereas, since 3 points for a win, 18 of the 27 champions (67%) have had lower than 45 points after 20 games.




Champions 20 game tallies (since 3 points for a win)

55  -  1 time

50  -  2
49  -  2

46  -  3
45  -  1
44  -  3
43  -  3

41  -  1

39  -  1
38  -  2
37  -  2

35  -  3
34  -  2
33  -  1




Non-Champions Best 20 game tallies (since 3 points for a win)

49  -  1
48  -  1
47  -  2
46  -  3
45  -  1




Champions Position after 20 games (since 3 points for a win)

1st  -  12 times
2nd  -  8
3rd  -  3
4th  -  2
5th  -  1
6th  -  1




Champions Average Points after 20 games (since 3 points for a win)

Overall:  41.96
Last 25 years:  42.28
Last 20 years:  42.50
Last 15 years:  43.20
Last 10 years:  44.40
Last 05 years:  49

[Jack Slater]

In Rafa's time, here is how the first half of the season compares to the second half.

Year    /  Pos after    /  Pos after   
           /  19 games   /  38 games 

04/05  /       6           /        5
05/06  /       3           /        3
06/07  /       3           /        3
07/08  /       4           /        4

So only once have we improved our position.  In Rafa's first season, Boro were ahead of us at the halfway stage, but fell away to finish 7th.  The fact that we advanced 1 place from 6th to 5th owed more to Boro getting weaker than to us getting stronger. 

We got 4 points less in the second half of the season than in the first half.  However, Boro got 9 points less in their second half than in their first half.

ie First Half:  Boro 32;  Liverpool 31
Second Half:  Boro 23;  Liverpool 27


Boro is the only team we have overtaken in any of Rafa's seasons.  Every other team that has been ahead of us at halfway has remained ahead of us at finish.

It's fair to point out that nobody at ll has overtaken us.


Here's how the top teams compare.


Liverpool:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  -4
2005/06:  0
2006/07:  0
2007/08:  +2

Chelsea:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  +3
2005/06:  -13
2006/07:  -7
2007/08:  +9


MU:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  +3
2005/06:  +1
2006/07:  -5
2007/08:  -3


Arsenal:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  +1
2005/06:  +1
2006/07:  +2
2007/08:  -5


So Liverpool have taken more points in the second half once;  MU & Chelsea, twice; Arsenal, 3 times.


In terms of league position:

04/05:  MU moved from 4th to 3rd.  (Thanks to the Blueshite getting just 21 points in the second half of the season).

05/06:  Arsenal moved from 6th to 4th.

07/08:  Arsenal moved from 2nd to 3rd; Chelsea from 3rd to 2nd.


So there is very little fluidity.  Arsenal is the only team to improve by 2 places.  Arsenal is also the only Big 4 team to drop a place when comparing their position after 19 games to their final league position.



All in all, I'd say there isnt much evidence for saying that Liverpool always do better in the second half of the season.  But then again, it's 5 years since the top team at the halfway stage hasnt won the title.  So everyone else has more to worry about than we do.

[rafa is the bosphorus]

The equivalent match comps:

Quite different looking from the time ones, Man Utd still with a clear lead, but Chelsea now down to joint 4th

Amazing difference in the two series: time equivalent and match equivalent.

In these things, I put more store in the equivalent match comparison than any other. The fascinating thing is that it shows the Mancs on the same trajectory as they were last year - i.e. all the trouble with Ronaldo/Berbatov still hasn't defelcted them from a title-winning score.

Chelsea however, are 14 points off the pace - a set of results that would, as the analysis shows, drop them out of the top four, let alone top three.

At -9, Arsenal are out of it

Can't over-read into this, but it underlines the challenge from the Mancs

[Murphy23]

The myth that we "always" have a better second half to the season

Media pundits, RAWK posters, and even Sammy Lee are fond of claiming that we always have a stronger finish after a comparatively weak start.

This season we got 42 points from the first 19 games.  It's very reassuring to think that we'll get even more in the second 19 games, thus ending up with a few more than 84 points - especially since 84 points would have only been enough to take 2 titles in the 21st century (02/03 being the most recent).

Unfortunately, history doesnt quite live up to the legend.

In Rafa's time, we have only once got more points in the second 19 than in the first.  That was last season (39 and 37 respectively).

In 2005/06 and in 2006/07, we got exactly the same points in each half.

In 2004/05, we actually got 4 points less in the second 19 (31 and 27).


Overall, since we last won the title:

The first half season has been better 9 times (out of 18).

Both halves have been exactly the same 3 times.

Only on 6 occasions have we got more points in the second half of the season than in the first.  (3 for Houllier, 1 each for Souness, Evans and Rafa).

 

I think we should remember that the "myth" comes from the success of cup competitions.

Also, managers throw a few league games when the league is done and dusted in favour of a stronger cup side.  So the 2nd half of the seasons stats aren't always an accurate reflection of the teams performance at the time.

[redtel]

In Rafa's time, here is how the first half of the season compares to the second half.

Year    /  Pos after    /  Pos after   
           /  19 games   /  38 games 

04/05  /       6           /        5
05/06  /       3           /        3
06/07  /       3           /        3
07/08  /       4           /        4

So only once have we improved our position.  In Rafa's first season, Boro were ahead of us at the halfway stage, but fell away to finish 7th.  The fact that we advanced 1 place from 6th to 5th owed more to Boro getting weaker than to us getting stronger. 

We got 4 points less in the second half of the season than in the first half.  However, Boro got 9 points less in their second half than in their first half.

ie First Half:  Boro 32;  Liverpool 31
Second Half:  Boro 23;  Liverpool 27


Boro is the only team we have overtaken in any of Rafa's seasons.  Every other team that has been ahead of us at halfway has remained ahead of us at finish.

It's fair to point out that nobody at ll has overtaken us.


Here's how the top teams compare.


Liverpool:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  -4
2005/06:  0
2006/07:  0
2007/08:  +2

Chelsea:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  +3
2005/06:  -13
2006/07:  -7
2007/08:  +9


MU:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  +3
2005/06:  +1
2006/07:  -5
2007/08:  -3


Arsenal:  (Second 19) - (First 19)
2004/05:  +1
2005/06:  +1
2006/07:  +2
2007/08:  -5


So Liverpool have taken more points in the second half once;  MU & Chelsea, twice; Arsenal, 3 times.


In terms of league position:

04/05:  MU moved from 4th to 3rd.  (Thanks to the Blueshite getting just 21 points in the second half of the season).

05/06:  Arsenal moved from 6th to 4th.

07/08:  Arsenal moved from 2nd to 3rd; Chelsea from 3rd to 2nd.


So there is very little fluidity.  Arsenal is the only team to improve by 2 places.  Arsenal is also the only Big 4 team to drop a place when comparing their position after 19 games to their final league position.



All in all, I'd say there isnt much evidence for saying that Liverpool always do better in the second half of the season.  But then again, it's 5 years since the top team at the halfway stage hasnt won the title.  So everyone else has more to worry about than we do.

Great review of our second half performance.

So it's a myth that we do better. I wonder if our success in CL games has clouded our memory, and reaching 3 semi-finals has made our league form seem better than it was.

In any case the 9 home games remaining are probably the key to success. This is where we could struggle to break teams down.

I would be surprised if we fail to beat Stoke (a) this time but the bitters and rent boys will provide tests that may give us a good idea how the second half will pan out.

[Eeyore]

It's not a myth we would of got more points in all of the seasons under Rafa.

If it wasn't for the fact that in 3 of the 4 seasons we have made massive changes to the team due to Champions League commitments.

[JP-65]

I'll do some analysis later today on the 1H/2H issue, I know I've posted something on this awhile ago, and if I remember correctly, the reason people think we perform better 2H is it's a relative issue rather than absolute

.....in other words, we pick up more points relative to our competitors in 2H, not that we have a better 2H vs 1H points wise

......all the big teams pick up fewer points in 2H probably because of fixture overload, injuries taking a toll, heavier winter pitches etc.

[Jack Slater]

I think we should remember that the "myth" comes from the success of cup competitions.

Also, managers throw a few league games when the league is done and dusted in favour of a stronger cup side.  So the 2nd half of the seasons stats aren't always an accurate reflection of the teams performance at the time.

Yeah, I agree that "success" is measured across all 4 competitions, not just the league.

Hypothetically:

Team A is in 4th place after 19 games, they then take 40 points from the remaining games and finish 3rd.  But they go out of the CL and FAC quite early.

Team B is in 3rd place after 19 games, they then take 34 points from the remaining games and finish 4th.  But they win the CL and FAC.

Obviously, anyone would say that Team B had had a better season.  Also, any optimism which Team A had at Xmas was mis-placed.  Whereas Team B has done much better than it could have hoped for at Xmas.

But that doesnt change the fact that the excellent season which they have just had does not create a precedent which shows that they score more points in the second half of a league season.

It's not a myth we would've got more points in all of the seasons under Rafa.

If it wasn't for the fact that in 3 of the 4 seasons we have made massive changes to the team due to Champions League commitments.

Maybe.

Maybe not.

But we are still in the CL and the FA Cup this season.  So if those competitions DO have a negative effect on our season (and obviously our rivals are competing in them as well), then that negative effect will still exist this year.

Personally, I am not saying that there is a reason which makes it inevitable, or probable, that we will get no more than 42 points in the second half of the season.  All I am saying is that we cannot use recent history to back up our optimism.

[JP-65]

Here's the first half versus second half comparison.

a) We've gained similar points over the past 3 seasons
b) Man Utd has been a little weaker in the second half, hopefully this will be accentuated this season as they have a lot of matches to go
c) Chelsea have not shown any consistency, strong 1H/weak 2H and vice versa.....question then is this season's 1H weak or strong?
d) Arsenal pretty consistent, except last season where they were strong 1H and ended up weaker 2H

Maybe part of the reason people have thought we were stronger 2H is that we generally have lagged in games played 1H (like Man Utd this season) as a result of CL qualifiers, Super Cup, World Club Cup etc matches.

I'll take a look at other periods (ie post winter transfer window) to see if anything "pops up"

[Jack Slater]

I'll do some analysis later today on the 1H/2H issue, I know I've posted something on this awhile ago, and if I remember correctly, the reason people think we perform better 2H is it's a relative issue rather than absolute

.....in other words, we pick up more points relative to our competitors in 2H, not that we have a better 2H vs 1H points wise

......all the big teams pick up fewer points in 2H probably because of fixture overload, injuries taking a toll, heavier winter pitches etc.

One way of looking at it is to take the points in the second 19 games only, for the main contenders.


04/05

1.  CHE  -  49  (finished 1st overall)
2.  ARS  -  42  (2nd)
3.  MUN  -  40  (3rd)
4.  LIV  -  27  (5th)


05/06

1.  MUN  -  42  (2nd)
2.  LIV  -  41  (3rd)
3.  CHE  -  39  (1st)
4.  ARS  -  34  (4th)


06/07

1.  MUN  -  42  (1st)
2.  CHE  -  38  (2nd)
3.  ARS  -  35  (4th)
4.  LIV  -  34  (3rd)


07/08

1.  CHE  -  47  (2nd)
2.  MUN  -  42  (1st)
3.  ARS  -  39  (3rd)
3.  LIV  -  39  (4th)


So in 2 years (04/05 & 06/07), we did 4th best of the so-called Big 4.

In another year (07/08), we did joint 3rd best.

In other words, in 3 out of the last 4 years, we have not out-scored any of our main rivals in the second set of 19 games.


In 05/06, we did outscore both Chelsea and Arsenal.   Of course, Chelsea lost their last 2 games when the title was already won.  Even so, we merely reduced their 11 point lead at the halfway stage to 8 points at the finish.  Arsenal have no excuses in my opinion (although they did reach the CL final), but were so poor that they struggled to finish above Spurs.  The fact that we did better than them isnt good evidence that we "always" finish the season better than we start it.

[Jack Slater]

Maybe part of the reason people have thought we were stronger 2H is that we generally have lagged in games played 1H (like Man Utd this season) as a result of CL qualifiers, Super Cup, World Club Cup etc matches.

Also, I think 2005/06 is large in people's minds.  We had an incredible finish winning 9 on the bounce and 12 out of the last 14.  We also won the FA Cup.

However, people understandably forget that we also had a 10 game winning streak  (and 11 wins in 12 games) in the first half of the season.  That's why that season is right up there on our list of best ever starts to 19 games (in the PL era, it is second only to this season).

I say, "understandably", because we only got 7 points from the first 6 games, whereas Chelsea won their first 9.  So we were never in contention.

[keyo]

Here's the first half versus second half comparison.

a) We've gained similar points over the past 3 seasons
b) Man Utd has been a little weaker in the second half, hopefully this will be accentuated this season as they have a lot of matches to go
c) Chelsea have not shown any consistency, strong 1H/weak 2H and vice versa.....question then is this season's 1H weak or strong?
d) Arsenal pretty consistent, except last season where they were strong 1H and ended up weaker 2H

Maybe part of the reason people have thought we were stronger 2H is that we generally have lagged in games played 1H (like Man Utd this season) as a result of CL qualifiers, Super Cup, World Club Cup etc matches.

I'll take a look at other periods (ie post winter transfer window) to see if anything "pops up"

This would at least appear to show that we always match our first half of the season in the 2nd, whereas chelsea have managed that only once, and united have not managed it yet......however, it is understandable given some of the runs they have been on in the first half of the year.................if the pattern continues we can expect in excess of 84 points this season, which would mean chelsea will require in excess of 42 from their last 18 games (54) and united 46 from 20 (60).....both are doable for those sides, and make our games at home to Chelsea and away to united even more important in order to deny them the opportunity of gaining maximum points........if we can edge those requirements up and take points off each then we put ourselves in with a great shout - an extra 3 points and take a draw of each leaves chelsea needing a minimum of 44 points from 17 games, allowing them only 3 draws and no defeats, and united 48 from 19, allowing them only 4 draws and no defeats........having said that to achieve that we would require 42 from 17 too, so it is still all up for grabs, and wins at ot and at home to chelsea and arsenal could be the key

[Jack Slater]

This would at least appear to show that we always match our first half of the season in the 2nd, whereas chelsea have managed that only once, and united have not managed it yet......

In the Rafa Era, Liverpool have taken more points in the second half (than in their own first half) once out of four attempts;  MU & Chelsea have done it twice; Arsenal, 3 times.


There's nothing which will necessarily prevent us getting more than 42 in the second half of this season (MU is the only Top 6 team that we still have to play away - hopefully Torres & Babel will be fresh, and Keane nicely bedded in) .  And I dont think 84 will be enough for the title, so we'll have to.