We need to gain 7 points on Arsenal, 9 on Chelsea, 11 on United.
Sounds like a massive ask, in fairness.
But, just a few little points...
If we were to win the home games against...
That would be 7 more points for us, 3 less for United, 1 less for Chelsea and 1 less for Arsenal
Leaving us 1 point behind United, 1 point behind Chelsea and 1 point ahead of Arsenal.
We have played Chelsea and Arsenal 4 times apiece this season (not including the kids in the league cup). We've yet to be beaten in 90 minutes. We have deserved to win 3, lose 1 vs Chelsea and win 2, draw 1, lose 1 vs Arsenal, in my opinion.
United is a different matter and one Rafa needs to work out pretty damn soon. We can't afford to lose home and away against them - they are too good to pull back 6 points against.
Winning home games vs...
Birmingham (or the side who replaces them)
...gives us an extra 2 points per game. We were ahead in the first 3. The other side was relegated.
We need to turn leads into wins at Anfield, pretty much all the time.
A fit Agger. A bit more attacking quality and, crucially, mentality. A bit of luck with Referees against United and Chelsea. An end to the off-field circus. Who knows how much difference that could make? looking at what we need to do, it doesn't sound like it has to be a massive amount.
Yes we can win it. We are one of only 4 clubs who can even dream of it. We are certainly no better than 3rd favourites, though, to be brutally honest.