Author Topic: Would 10 points guarantee qualification? (Read 3604 times)

nyctex · « **Reply #40 on:** October 25, 2007, 01:37:14 AM »

Quote from: Fiend on October 25, 2007, 01:33:19 AM

We havent got shit overnight.

nah, only since Pako left

Filler. · « **Reply #41 on:** October 25, 2007, 01:46:43 AM »

Looking at the positives.. as you do... we're at a no messing stage. We've got Torres. We've got Xabi coming back. Two home wins and an away win versus a team we should have beat. What's the problem? I mean really? It's in our hands, and they are good hands. And let's face it, in recent years we've been pretty good at scraping thru haven't we?

It's kind of nice being in a position of NEEDING wins... granted, needing only a point would be nice too .. ha .. but hey.

We can do it. Got full faith in that. Roll on Sunday! (he typed precariously).

Kals · « **Reply #42 on:** October 25, 2007, 01:58:25 AM »

This would be the best scenario:
We beat Beşiktaş, Porto & Marseille draw - Marseille 8, Porto 6, Us 4
We beat Porto, Marseille draw at Beşiktaş - Marseille 9, Us 7, Porto 6
Beat Marseille, Porto beat Beşiktaş - Us 10, Marseille & Porto 9

1st place... easy

This is probably more realistic:
We beat Beşiktaş, Porto beat Marseille - Porto 8, Marseille 7, Us 4
We beat Porto, Marseille draw at Beşiktaş - Porto 8, Marseille 8, Us 7
Beat Marseille, Porto beat Beşiktaş - Porto 11, Us 10, Marseille 8

We can do it. We always do things the hard way.

swampy · « **Reply #43 on:** October 25, 2007, 02:29:45 AM »

Quote from: Dhillon on October 25, 2007, 01:58:25 AM

This would be the best scenario:
We beat Beşiktaş, Porto & Marseille draw - Marseille 8, Porto 6, Us 4
We beat Porto, Marseille draw at Beşiktaş - Marseille 9, Us 7, Porto 6
Beat Marseille, Porto beat Beşiktaş - Us 10, Marseille & Porto 9

1st place... easy

This is probably more realistic:
We beat Beşiktaş, Porto beat Marseille - Porto 8, Marseille 7, Us 4
We beat Porto, Marseille draw at Beşiktaş - Porto 8, Marseille 8, Us 7
Beat Marseille, Porto beat Beşiktaş - Porto 11, Us 10, Marseille 8

We can do it. We always do things the hard way.

What about
We beat Beşiktaş, Porto & Marseille draw - Marseille 8, Porto 6, Us 4
We beat Porto, Marseille win at Beşiktaş - Marseille 11, Us 7, Porto 6
Beat Marseille, Porto beat Beşiktaş - Marseille 11, Us 10, Porto 9

I think that maybe more likely, we need Marseilles & Porto to draw or Porto to lose when they play next. otherwise its Marseille on goal difference we have to run down.

4pool · « **Reply #44 on:** October 25, 2007, 02:59:55 AM »

The only question is who do we draw in the knockout round..

WizaRedOfAus · « **Reply #45 on:** October 25, 2007, 03:13:48 AM »

no. I don't think Rafa is too fussed either which is fine with me, I prefer no distractions in the league as it has been proven we cannot do well in both competitions. I'm not saying he wanted to get knocked out intentionally, but I dare say the CL is clearly not the focus this season. One year without a CL run will not be the end of the world, especially now that the finances are not so crucial, and may in fact be a blessing in disguise.

mythx · « **Reply #46 on:** October 25, 2007, 03:14:08 AM »

maybe we should get rafa to shave that beard..it's bad luck

betyar · « **Reply #47 on:** October 25, 2007, 03:27:13 AM »

If I'm not mistaken, a team that get 10 points cannot be out after the group stages unless one team, the weakest, get only three or less points. In our case it's possible, if Beşiktaş loses their matches, but with 10 points we'll go through more than likely. If Beşiktaş got a point and we win all aour games, we are through without mathematics
There are scenarios by wich we can even afford a draw or even another defeat. It's far from over.

Hugh · « **Reply #48 on:** October 25, 2007, 03:45:48 AM »

Quote from: Filler. on October 25, 2007, 01:46:43 AM

Looking at the positives.. as you do... we're at a no messing stage. We've got Torres. We've got Xabi coming back. Two home wins and an away win versus a team we should have beat. What's the problem? I mean really? It's in our hands, and they are good hands. And let's face it, in recent years we've been pretty good at scraping thru haven't we?

It's kind of nice being in a position of NEEDING wins... granted, needing only a point would be nice too .. ha .. but hey.

We can do it. Got full faith in that. Roll on Sunday! (he typed precariously).

Unless your being sarcy then I can't help but agree....this is the team that's beaten the best in Europe over the last three years, fuck it the team that's won it too. So there's no reason not to expect nine points from three games we'd normally piss all over....but of course for our dire form of late.....ugh......

FCP1987 · « **Reply #49 on:** October 25, 2007, 04:03:51 AM »

Guys the question is as simple as this:
if u get 3wins, being the one against Marseille by 2 or more goals, ur qualified...

If u win ur 3matches, this means that Porto, Marseille and Beşiktaş will lose at least 3points. So the max they could do is: Marseille 13, Porto 11, Beşiktaş 9. So Beşiktaş is already out.

Then u have to see something: Porto and Marseille will play against each other! They also have to play against Beşiktaş, that after losing against u, can't reach 10points. So let's suppose the worst for u happens: both Porto and Marseille beat Beşiktaş.
As Porto and Marseille still play against each other, then: either Marseille does 13 and Porto 8, or Porto does 11 and Marseille 10.
In the 1st case, if u do 10 points will qualify, no doubts.
In the 2nd case, if u do 10 points (winning at Marseille by 2 or more goals), u'll qualify. Despite Marseille having 10points aswell...u'll beat them at head to head, cause u beat them by 2 (or more), and they beat u by 1...

There's even a chance u can qualify with only 7points...if Beşiktaş beats Marseille at home, and if Porto beats both Marseille and Beşiktaş, both at home. Then u just need to beat Beşiktaş and Marseille by 2 or more... u could even lose against Porto...
It would be: Porto 14, Liverpool 7, Marseille 7, Beşiktaş 6.

So u still have plenty of chances, and it's all on ur hands. 3wins, being the one at Marseille by 2 or more, will put u through... and there's even some chances u'll qualify with less than 10points (7 or 8...beating both Beşiktaş and Marseille, losing or drawing against Porto).

I hope u qualify...along with us, of course.

Cheers from Porto.

Emerald Red · « **Reply #50 on:** October 25, 2007, 04:34:06 AM »

10 points could win the group ...
all four teams could finish with 8 points ...
there are many possibilities.

kermit^ · « **Reply #51 on:** October 25, 2007, 04:46:07 AM »

I think 10 points and we'll be through. But it's quite an uphill task to win all remaining matches with the current form.

Redshadow · « **Reply #52 on:** October 25, 2007, 06:10:34 AM »

10 points will do. the wins will put us in a better head to head against other teams, providing we beat Beşiktaş with more than one goal. The game in Marseille would be fun! If I were you, I would book the game from now! Good news would be that the game comes after the Reading games! A better news! the game will come before Manc at Home! December, what a month!
We're still in shot for a quadruple!

ian_rush9 · « **Reply #53 on:** October 25, 2007, 07:04:58 AM »

Quote from: Tom_B on October 24, 2007, 11:42:19 PM

As weird as it sounds, I think I would rather just go out of Europe completely than get UEFA Cup. Sounds defeatist, but if it helps us concentrate on the league, then so be it.

I´m with you, it´s PL now and that´s it.

Greg · « **Reply #54 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:15:58 AM »

If we win our 3 remaining games, then we're more than likely go to through.

The only way we could go out is if Porto win their 2 other games (Marseilles and Beşiktaş, both in Portugal) and Marseilles beat Beşiktaş (in Turkey).

That would leave Porto on 11 points, and Liverpool and Marseilles both on 10 points.

Then it would go on head-to-head games. A 1-0 win in Marseilles would probably do for us, assuming Marseilles don't completely twat Beşiktaş in Turkey.

Defo worth a bet. I'm pessimistic this season, but even I think we're odds on to go through.

Commie Bobbie · « **Reply #55 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:22:55 AM »

Quote from: Tom_B on October 24, 2007, 11:42:19 PM

As weird as it sounds, I think I would rather just go out of Europe completely than get UEFA Cup. Sounds defeatist, but if it helps us concentrate on the league, then so be it.

That's my thinking.

We've had some great times in the CL, but since Platini and Billy the Clown spouted their nonsense post-Athens, wanted us to just go full pelt for the PL.

Hank Scorpio · « **Reply #56 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:25:59 AM »

I think we can qualify with 10 points.

If you take into consideration that Porto - Marseille have to play each other and will drop points, plus we have a chance to take points from both those sides, then we have a chance.

Greg · « **Reply #57 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:30:04 AM »

But it's not worth betting on. Shit odds. We should be 4.0 or 5.0 by my maths.

Crosby Nick · « **Reply #58 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:39:20 AM »

Quote from: Redshadow on October 25, 2007, 06:10:34 AM

10 points will do. the wins will put us in a better head to head against other teams, providing we beat Beşiktaş with more than one goal.

Not that I think it'll come down to a head to head with Beşiktaş but a 1-0 win over them would give us a better head to head because of the away goal.

Likewise, if we are going to have to beat Porto and Marseilles to qualify then the head to heads should take care of themselves. If we 'only' win 1-0 with Marseilles then and we were level on points with them then only then would GD come into play. With the way we're defending in Europe we're going to have to beat them 2-1 or 3-2 anyway! Easy!

DanMB · « **Reply #59 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:41:02 AM »

Fuck me Liverpool don't half play things dangerous :/

I'm gonna need a new heart by 30 :|

gjr1 · « **Reply #60 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:46:40 AM »

Well I guess if you fancied a punt on us winning the CL there will be no better time to do it than now.

You may get 25/1 or better from what I have seen.

jooneyisdagod · « **Reply #61 on:** October 25, 2007, 09:50:34 AM »

Maybe but we would have to depend on how the other results pan out.

jay_redalways · « **Reply #62 on:** October 25, 2007, 10:15:32 AM »

I worked out that regardless of what happens with the other results, qualification is definitely in our hands. Win 3 games, puts us on 10. We'll be ahead of Beşiktaş, and whatever the result of porto v marseille, we should ahead of either of them.
It will come down to goal difference with marseille if porto beat marseille and they both beat Beşiktaş
If porto v marseille is a draw or marseille beat porto and they both beat Beşiktaş, goal diff doesn't matter since the max points porto can get would be 9.

An even better scenario would be if porto (currently on 5) draw or lose to marseille and Beşiktaş, and end up with no more than 7 points, as then we could afford to lose to marseille!!

Lfsea · « **Reply #63 on:** October 25, 2007, 10:53:59 AM »

Quote from: betyar on October 25, 2007, 03:27:13 AM

There are scenarios by wich we can even afford a draw or even another defeat. It's far from over.

In terms of health of the supporters, this isn't a scenario I'm going to entertain

...

straker · « **Reply #64 on:** October 25, 2007, 11:07:31 AM »

We miss Paco

RedMerseyMan · « **Reply #65 on:** October 25, 2007, 11:36:22 AM »

Whilst it is still in our hands I am going to believe we will qualify

Drewas · « **Reply #66 on:** October 25, 2007, 11:59:44 AM »

I actually think it wouldnt be a bad thing not to qualify, sure we would lose some money but I really think Rafa would then be forced to concentrate on the league.

Its not as if it will dent our European credentials too much two finals in three years have seen to that.

Besides with Manure, Chelsea and Arse probably all through to the group stages I can see this being the break we need in the league and who knows Rafa will probably win the Uefa cup just to spite all you non-believers.

Rafa will get it right his record when compared to Fergie and Wenger in their first three years is impressive.

Bob Loblaw · « **Reply #67 on:** October 25, 2007, 12:04:41 PM »

We'll still qualify imo.

Merlock · « **Reply #68 on:** October 25, 2007, 12:11:00 PM »

Quote from: FCP1987 on October 25, 2007, 04:03:51 AM

Guys the question is as simple as this:
if u get 3wins, being the one against Marseille by 2 or more goals, ur qualified...

If u win ur 3matches, this means that Porto, Marseille and Beşiktaş will lose at least 3points. So the max they could do is: Marseille 13, Porto 11, Beşiktaş 9. So Beşiktaş is already out.

Then u have to see something: Porto and Marseille will play against each other! They also have to play against Beşiktaş, that after losing against u, can't reach 10points. So let's suppose the worst for u happens: both Porto and Marseille beat Beşiktaş.
As Porto and Marseille still play against each other, then: either Marseille does 13 and Porto 8, or Porto does 11 and Marseille 10.
In the 1st case, if u do 10 points will qualify, no doubts.
In the 2nd case, if u do 10 points (winning at Marseille by 2 or more goals), u'll qualify. Despite Marseille having 10points aswell...u'll beat them at head to head, cause u beat them by 2 (or more), and they beat u by 1...

There's even a chance u can qualify with only 7points...if Beşiktaş beats Marseille at home, and if Porto beats both Marseille and Beşiktaş, both at home. Then u just need to beat Beşiktaş and Marseille by 2 or more... u could even lose against Porto...
It would be: Porto 14, Liverpool 7, Marseille 7, Beşiktaş 6.

So u still have plenty of chances, and it's all on ur hands. 3wins, being the one at Marseille by 2 or more, will put u through... and there's even some chances u'll qualify with less than 10points (7 or 8...beating both Beşiktaş and Marseille, losing or drawing against Porto).

I hope u qualify...along with us, of course.
Cheers from Porto.

Lock the thread.
Cheers.

Grobbelrevell · « **Reply #69 on:** October 25, 2007, 12:46:47 PM »

Quote from: Billy The Kid. on October 25, 2007, 12:06:22 AM

At the end of a storm, theres a golden sky.....

Fuck it, with the way things are at the moment i need a nice thought to cling to. Its getting harder and harder to stay positive these days.

Not too sure about that, maybe a slight exaggeration dont you think?

Sitting healthily in the league - of which we are still unbeaten.
We have just beaten the bitters in their own back yard.
We are also still in with a chance of getting through in the CL.

Yes weve been playing poorly for a while, but this spell will not last, of that you can be sure - Torres/Alonso/Agger due to return in the near future will also play a part in putting these poor performances behind us i would guess.

Cheer up people - all is definitely NOT lost.

todda · « **Reply #70 on:** October 25, 2007, 12:55:00 PM »

Just look at .tv site there is still tickets on sale for our game at home to Beşiktaş. Now usually they'd have gone by lunch-time yesterday(i.e. day they go on sale to Fancard holders) or at the very least only have restricted views and singles left, for them to have tickets still available now just shows you how much faith our own supporters have on us qualifying.

Deo · « **Reply #71 on:** October 25, 2007, 01:17:43 PM »

Its all up to us, if we win our next games, than we it will all depend on our game vs Marseille and I can see us doing a Olympiacos like win...

aaronrobinson · « **Reply #72 on:** October 25, 2007, 03:23:40 PM »

England have more chance of qualifying for Euro 2008

gob · « **Reply #73 on:** October 25, 2007, 03:36:38 PM »

Quote from: FCP1987 on October 25, 2007, 04:03:51 AM

I hope u qualify...along with us, of course.

That's what i think too

To be realistic, i can't imagine OM will win in Porto or Istambul.
Maybe a draw in these two matches...

So, i think the qualification will be played in the last match against us.

Finn Solomon · « **Reply #74 on:** October 25, 2007, 04:10:10 PM »

Don't particularly care about Europe this season, I'd much rather win the league.

jambutty · « **Reply #75 on:** October 25, 2007, 04:34:59 PM »

Quote from: Fiend on October 25, 2007, 01:33:19 AM

Give it a rest Aldridge 8.
We lost. We're down.
We'll come back.
We havent got shit overnight.

True.

We've been there for weeks

MG_LFC · « **Reply #76 on:** October 25, 2007, 05:15:14 PM »

forget pako.....we can do this....am sure we can!!

rafasredangel · « **Reply #77 on:** October 25, 2007, 05:27:34 PM »

We'll do it the hard way, but I'm sure we will do it.

Jimmy Mullet · « **Reply #78 on:** October 25, 2007, 07:25:52 PM »

3 wins and would almost certainly qualify.

There is no margin for error now, we simply have to beat Beşiktaş at home in the next game, then Porto. And then it would be a showdown against Marseilles in the last game.

And another thing, a few season ago Newcastle United lost their first 3 games, won the last 3, and qualified.

On a final note, we have key players returning from injury (Agger, Alonso, Torres) who should be available for these key games, surely it isn't beyond Liverpool F.C to turn this around.

svoures · « **Reply #79 on:** October 25, 2007, 08:31:01 PM »

According to my calculations, if we win the last 3 games we guarantee qualification UNLESS Porto beats Marseille and Besictas at home (then it will be down to us beating Marseille by two goals). Here is the breakdown:

Current table: Mar 7, Porto 5, Bes 3, Liv 1

If in the next round we beat Besictas then:
If Porto draws with Mar, the table becomes: 1) Mar 8, Por 6, Liv 4, Bes 3
If Porto wins, then 2) Por 8, Mar 7, Liv 4, Bes 3
If Porto loses then 3) Mar 10, Por 5, Liv 4, Bes 3

If we then beat Porto at home:
If Besictas draws with Mar, the possible tables are: 4) Mar 9, Liv 7, Por 6, Bes 4
or 5) Por 8, Mar 8, Liv 7, Bes 4
or 6) Mar 11, Liv 7, Por 5, Bes 4

If Beşiktaş beats Mar, the possible tables are: 7) Mar 8, Liv 7, Por 6, Bes 6
or 8. Por 8, Mar 7, Liv 7, Bes 6
or 9) Mar 10, Liv 7, Bes 6, Por 5

If Beşiktaş loses we have: 10) Mar 11, Liv 7, Por 6, Bes 3
or 11) Mar 10, Por 8, Liv 7, Bes 3
or 12) Mar 13, Liv 7, Por 5, Bes 3

So, no matter what happens in the last game (Porto-Beşiktaş), as long as we win all 3 games we are through as 1st or 2nd in the group, apart from table 11, when we would need to beat Mar by more than one goal so we can go through on goal difference between out games.