Thanks BLF. Good post.
I'll try to address the things you brought up in your post one-by-one...
34K AttendanceI personally think that the falling attendances (i.e. Bolton) is a great point. I run spreadsheets on LFC's financial model and truthfully that Bolton attendance is something that I didn't expect. Even in this current post-holiday depressed economic environment those Bolton numbers were a complete shock... To forecast numbers continually down to that level, changed my entire financial model.
To that point, I think it's probably fair to say that 34K attendances @ Anfield is probably something that concerns Henry & NESV to no end. There's NO WAY that they have the numbers modeled out @ that 34K level. NO WAY.
Even if the most Anti-NESV LFC supporter came on here claiming that the owners don't see what's happening regarding Hodgson, that would be a complete load of tosh. There is NO WAY NESV are going to miss the fact of 34K per match under this manager. That alone should assure you that these guys are fully aware what is going on. But again, I fully believe that these guys (Henry, Werner, Comolli) are 100% on top of things and have been fully aware since before they purchased the club of the exact circumstances that are facing the team concerning the manager.
The other thing to consider is that I bet that 34K attendance number made them rethink or at least question some of the stadium issues (i.e. size, local area redevelopment, etc...), but that's a topic for another thread.
Stating that he "knew virtually nothing about football a couple of months ago"I wouldn't worry too much about Henry stating that when they purchased the team. The way that I read that statement when he made it was him acknowledging to the Liverpool faithful that he was going to
(1) learn about it and
(2) more importantly that he was going to hire smart futbol people to run the Club and the Team.
Or look at it another way... When is the last time that you saw a new owner have THIS MUCH experience with success in Sports before they purchased a Club? It never happens. It's unheard of in the EPL. Anymore it's either
(1) some rich oligarch or sheik (e.g. Abdullah @ Malaga, Abramovich), who have never run a Sports club in their lives or
(2) wealthy fans who step into some money (e.g. Ashley, Gold, Sullivan, Moores), who wrongly get involved in everything because they are always seeing things as a fan first-and-foremost or
(3) some levered-up investment company (e.g. Hicks/GG, Glazers), who are holding on for dear life praying for a low interest rate bull market environment to pay off their debts before they get found out.
Or asked differently, since when is having any experience owning a futbol club that important ? Futbol clubs are one of the worst business models ever. Almost impossible to run effectively, because they are run like hospitals (i.e. everyone has a hand in the pie taking out a plum).
To be a good owner, Henry doesn't need to know the ins-and-out of running an Offside Trap. He doesn't need to know the evolution of the various formations to be a good owner. What he does need and what is required from him is
(1) experience in setting up a the right Club power structure,
(2) experience in setting up a the right Club communication structure,
(3) experience in making sound Sports personnel decisions (i.e. CEO, DOF, manager),
(4) experience in marketing & stadium development,
(5) the thirst to Win Win Win,
(6) and lastly deep pockets . And quite frankly he has all of those IN SPADES.
He'll become a proper knowledgeable fan on his own. But that is not initially required to be a good/great owner.
Advice Henry's GettingI see a lot of people tearing their hair out thinking that Purslow has Henry's ear. Quite frankly I don't think that is the case at all. It's fairly common to see some executive leaving a Club (or company) and retain some sort of title for a little bit. Why does this happen...? So in case the owners need to know where the dead bodies are buried they have someone to call. That's probably the case here right now.
Henry & Werner have a wealth of knowledgeable football people around (i.e. Comolli, Segura, Ayre, Dalglish, the ex-Arsenal directors) to help them make decisions.
Sacking Hodgson is going to be Comolli's call in conjunction with Henry & Werner.
But I will say, it's a decent scenario that these guys still have Purslow's phone number considering that he was the one who wrote Hodgson's contract. If anyone knows where the pressure points to get to Hodgson are in that contract, it's him. He's the one who sat in on the negotiations of that contract, so he going to know what things Hodgson holds dear.
Sack Today ?As I said, I think that probably Henry & Comolli wanted to push this off to next week for a whole host of potential reasons (which I listed previously). But as
Soxfan said, sometimes you just can't wait and you have to bite the bullet a bit early. I think that that is the case here.
I wouldn't be surprised (like with Rafa @ Inter) that it took 2 days (yesterday and today) to iron things out between Hodgson's agent and Liverpool's attorneys.
The mid-point of the Transfer Window (~Jan 15th) that I mentioned earlier I basically picked it out of the air using some reasoning. January 15th is an appox. date that has some significance, January and August are important financial months for futbol clubs. It is typically when a lot of the cash flow takes place. Couple that with the fact that these managerial & player contracts are all set-up differently on the frequency of when people get paid. Some 2X per year. Some 2X per month (either the 15th & the 30th or every other week).
In Hodgson's case when he signed a contract (the biggest payday in his 35yr career), there is no doubt that his agent saw the risk of new owners coming in a blowing Hodgson out immediately. To insure that Hodgson was paid his chunk of change there is little doubt that the agent would have put in some sort of clause stating that if Hodgson is sacked before some specific date that his client is entitled to £X astronomical amount payday. When they signed the contract they probably didn't make that date, January 1, as that could imply that Hodgson could be out of a job for the entire Transfer Window. They probably also didn't make that date, January 31st, as that would leave the owners little wiggle room to get a new manager in if they had to. So I am rationally speculating that that date was the midpoint, January 15th.
IMO, Hodgson's agent and Liverpool's attorneys are now coming up with various compromises to figure out how much Hodgson will be paid to terminate his contract early. Hopefully Liverpool's attorney's can strong-arm Hodgson's agent.
In the Scheme of Things This is PeanutsAt the end of the day this is an easy personnel decision about an employee that is vastly under-achieving. This is the easiest decision that a manager of a business could ever have. When they came on board in Boston, Henry & NESV shit-canned the existing under-performing manager who was hired 6 months prior. They sacked him without thinking twice, but they did so once Comolli's-equivalent had a few months to do due diligence on the guy and come to his own informed decision. Same thing is happening here. Historically these guys don't make rash decisions (i.e. what the fans are clamoring for that specific week). They also don't make decisions based on external thinking (i.e. what the previous owners' stadium plans were). They have proven in Boston that they make their own informed decisions. That is all that this is.
But again, I think that for likely some host of reasons (mostly financial for either Hodgson's contract or the new manager's at their current club) that Henry/NESV were hoping to delay Hodgson's sacking for another week. But as
Soxfan indicated, we are at that "tipping point" right now, and this somewhat simple personnel decision likely won't be put off until next week. Henry/NESV will have to pony up more money to get him out before that.
Firing Hodgson will be the easiest decision Henry & Comolli make all year.@ Surfer
DOF Role and NESV's Appointment of ComolliI wrote about it
HERE on the Comolli thread.
Essentially the structure that NESV have set up @ Liverpool is vastly different than other places where there are DOFs.
The DOF Role ONLY WORKS if the rest of the organization is set-up to support it. Just because the a club brings in a DOF does not mean that the rest of the organization is going to work with it. Take Spain & Italy for instance. A lot of those teams have DOFs but in no way shape or form are the organizations set-up to support it. In Spain most of the DOFs are non-futbol guys trying to make the decisions (i.e. Florentino Pérez and his crooked cronies @ Madrid). Take even the UK... Guys like Avram Grant @Chelsea or Dalglish @Blackburn & Celtic may have held the title of DOF, but the power was still elsewhere (with the owners or managers). Even look @ Inter Milan. They had a DOF and a strong-willed manager, but @ the end of the day the owner makes all of the decisions.
As far as Comolli's specific appointment to the DOF role @Liverpool, I think it was a fairly good appointment. Hopefully time will prove that it was a great appointment.
With the appointment of executive search firm, Spencer Stuart for the new CEO, NESV are showing you how they go about their selection process for the executives. It's not the See-Who's-Available-And-Quickly-Pick-The-Best-From-The-Lot Approach which so many futbol clubs do. NESV's CEO appointment seems like a pretty good thought out approach. Lot's of due diligence. With Comolli they probably did the same thing. In fact you can assume that they did regarding the due diligence.
As it turns out the world gets pretty small especially in business. The top venture capital guys have their very small circle of people that they respect in the business. The Global Head of Information Technology @ BP probably only has a dozen or so peers across the Energy industry that he/she respects. It's the same thing in any industry; moreover, ESPECIALLY in the Sports industry. NESV are comfortable with the model that they have successfully built in Boston and one which has borne Championships, and so are the fans, and @ the heart of it is this structure and this thirst for new information (i.e. Moneyball-stuff). So of course they are going to look for people like that in futbol.
In the entire world of Sport, I'd be willing to bet that there aren't more than 30 people across all Sports who embrace this Moneyball-stuff the same way as NESV. And I bet most of those 30 all talk with each other. So what do NESV do... They ask one of the guys in that very top clique (baseball guy Billy Beane) who he respects the most. He most likely said Arsene Wegner. Well, we're weren't getting him, so then he comes back with a dozen or so other names, one of which is Comolli's and then NESV do deep due diligence on that shortlist of futbol guys that they think would fit the DOF role for them @ Liverpool.
Anyway... just my 2 cents...
