Topic: Results Comparison 2015/16

[JP-65]

FWIW, the average points total for the title winner since the turn of the century (15 seasons) is 85.3.

The highest is 95 points, and the lowest is 80 points (twice).

The two instances of 80 points, and one of 83 points are the only times below 86 points won the title (so 3 times in 15 seasons, so 20% of the time)

[JP-65]

Klopp has improved us already, our ppg for the 6 league matches is 1.83 (and a fairly testing set of fixtures). 
For us to be a serious contender for the title, not only do we have to perform at a very high level for the rest of the season, we need all 4 of our main competitors to continue to perform sub-optimally, this is unlikely, you'd have to expect at least one to start to perform more strongly as well.

I'd argue that one team starting to perform more strongly, tends to encourage their competitor's to do the same.  So if we do go on a good run, I'd expect one or two others to match us somewhat.

So, if 85 points is required to win the title, a lower than usual total (but titles have been won with less), then for it to be us, we'd have to perform at a level that is greater than our 2013/4 results, and is a level rarely achieved in the history of the PL (it's 100 points for a season!)

Wonder if this post will come back to bite me in the arse by season's end....he he he

[Hunts Cross]

HC, we have not picked up any points to City or Arsenal and lost 1 to Spurs & United....FWIW

Let's see, JP, how it all pans out. I appreciate the cold shower of realism and probability you bring, but this Kloppo makes me dream.  Next up, the Barcodes. BRING IT ON.

[JP-65]

Let's see, JP, how it all pans out. I appreciate the cold shower of realism and probability you bring, but this Kloppo makes me dream.  Next up, the Barcodes. BRING IT ON.

The rational side says it'll be very difficult, the romantic side says WE CAN DO IT!

[Fluke]

The rational side says it'll be very difficult, the romantic side says WE CAN DO IT!

Thanks very much for the info!

I've always been an optimist, so I tend to sit in the "if there's a chance, then it's still on" camp.  There's only been a few occasions when reality has matched my hope haha.

[Hunts Cross]

From above...

Next week's equivalent results from last season:

Newcastle United	1-0	Liverpool
Manchester United	2-1	West Ham United
Stoke City	1-4	Manchester City
West Bromwich Albion	0-2	Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal	0-0	Sunderland
Chelsea	2-0	Bournemouth(Hull City)

Hopefully, the outcome today at Newcastle follows the trend that none of these games this weekend saw the spoils go the same way this season - remarkable. Only Arsenal improved. Let's hope we turn defeat into a win and let's see how encouraging things look.

[zabadoh]

The pack came towards us rather than the other way around.  Still, we need weeks like this.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	79	+44	0	-1	0	-1
Arsenal	75	+37	0	+3	+1	+2
Chelsea	72	+23	-15	-13	+5	-18
Man Utd	70	+26	0	-8	-9	+1
Spurs	68	+19	+4	+4	-10	+14
Liverpool	67	+12	+5	0	-8	+8

Next week's equivalent results:

Liverpool	2–1	West Bromwich Albion
Bournemouth(Hull)	0-0	Manchester United
Manchester City	2-1	Swansea City
Tottenham Hotspur	1-2	Newcastle United
Aston Villa	0-3	Arsenal
Leicester City	1-3	Chelsea

Spurs get to try reversing their own loss against Newcastle.
Man U get a chance to improve as well.

[zabadoh]

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Man City	79	+44	0	-1	0	-1
Arsenal	75	+36	0	+2	+1	+1
Man Utd	69	+25	-1	-7	-7	0
Chelsea	69	+20	-18	-15	+6	-21
Spurs	68	+19	+4	+4	-10	+14
Liverpool	65	+11	+3	0	-7	+7

Next week's equivalent results from last season:

Watford (Burnley)	0-1	Liverpool
Manchester United	4-0	Norwich City(QPR)
Arsenal	2-2	Manchester City
Southampton	2-2	Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea	3-1	Sunderland

[McrRed]

Apart from our own difficult-to-predict result (0-1 again) it's going to be interesting to see how Chelsea react. They were nailed on to drop points but now....
Utd may want to perform for their new manager in waiting. Or not.
The rest look like draws again.

[Gods-Left-Peg]

Important that we do not lose any more ground against the likes of Watford and Sunderland. We dropped 7 points against Leicester, West Ham and Arsenal last season. Play well and we could find ourselves above the projected 70 point mark for the first time in January.

[zabadoh]

This season is such a good opportunity to reach the CL places with Spurs, United treading water, and Chelsea struggling, and possibly Leicester City joining the fight to get into Europe.

I've been keeping track of Leicester City separately, and right now they're +17 points over last season. 

If we project that forwards, we can roughly double that to +34 points through the end of the season, add that to the 41 points they scored last season, and they're projected to finish with 75 points. Which would be good enough for 2nd or 3rd.

@Gods-Left-Peg:  We've got the following fixtures left through the end of the year:
W Burnley   0-1   Liverpool
D Liverpool    2-2   Leicester City
W Sunderland    0-1   Liverpool

Great chance for 9 points or +2 improvement if we can beat Leicester, who against quality opposition, have only been beaten by Arsenal, and drawn against Spurs, Man United and Southampton.  Chelsea don't qualify as quality opposition at this point

[zabadoh]

Arsenal pull ahead of Man City in terms of comparative results.
Spurs are surprisingly in 3rd.
Not on the chart, Leicester City reach the halfway mark at +19 points over last season's results when they finished with 41 points.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Arsenal	79	+37	+4	+2	0	+2
Man City	76	+44	-3	-2	-1	-1
Spurs	72	+21	+8	+5	-11	+16
Chelsea	69	+20	-18	-15	+6	-21
Man Utd	65	+18	-5	-12	-5	-7
Liverpool	64	+8	+2	-2	-6	+4

Next round's equivalent results from last season:

West Ham United	3-1	Liverpool
Manchester Utd	1–2	Swansea City
Watford(Burnley)	1-0	Manchester City
Everton	0-1	Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal	4-1	Newcastle United
Chelsea	2-0	West Bromwich Albion

[JP-65]

The league table since Klopp started.

We've lost ground on Arsenal & Spurs, gained ground on Chelsea & United

[JP-65]

Update on the comparison to Spurs:

First 8 games is under Rodgers management, both seasons
Next 9 games is under Klopp's management, this season
Next 12 games is the "hot streak" that we had last season, ended with the loss to Man United (2 matches into it now)
The last 9 games is the period United loss on when we seemed to lose the plot.

[JP-65]

Update on the fight for the title.

I've reduced the target to 82 points, it's unlikely this will be exceeded this season.

Chelsea can only achieve 77 points if they win all their remaining fixtures 

It's Arsenal's to lose IMO (but they did manage to achieve this in 2013/4!)

[JP-65]

Updated chart for the CL spots:

Leicester may be at the point where it's probable they will make it to a CL spot, they need 1.63 ppg to get to 70 points.

Arsenal, City are sure bets to be there, highly likely Spurs as well, so comes down to a fight between ourselves & United for 5th or 4th if Leicester fold.

[zabadoh]

Interesting last couple of weeks.  The pack chasing 3-4th has fallen back towards us.

A win over Man Utd next week would do us well due to our loss last season

On the other hand, Leicester City are continuing to tear up the league and are continuing their strong bid to finish in the top 4 with their reversal win over Spurs this round.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Arsenal	79	+35	+4	0	0	0
Man City	77	+45	-2	-1	-1	0
Chelsea	67	+20	-20	-14	+7	-21
Spurs	67	+18	+3	+1	-12	+13
Man Utd	66	+19	-4	-9	-3	-6
Liverpool	64	+8	+2	-2	-6	+4

Next round's equivalent results:

Liverpool	1-2	Manchester United
Manchester City	3-0	Crystal Palace
Tottenham Hotspur	2-1	Sunderland
Stoke City	3-2	Arsenal
Chelsea	1-0	Everton

[rickardinho1]

Interesting how the cumulative GD tells such an accurate picture of each team compared to last season...

Arsenal and City not changed much; Chelsea imploding; Spurs most improved; United worse; and Liverpool slightly improved.

Projected    Cumul GD
Arsenal      0
Man City      0
Chelsea      -21
Spurs           +13
Man Utd            -6
Liverpool      +4

[zabadoh]

It's weird although Spurs' GD is +13 over last season, they've only gained +3 points in the league.

Their GD is mostly due to being -12 in Goals Against over last season.

This illustrates the importance of winning, as opposed to not losing, in this league.

I think there's a stronger correspondence between Goals For Difference and points improvement in results.

Goals Against also factors in, but seems to have less influence on improvement.

[JP-65]

Updated "Klopp Table"

[rickardinho1]

Updated "Klopp Table"

You'd think Leicester were the ones who hired Klopp looking at that... 

[JP-65]

You'd think Leicester were the ones who hired Klopp looking at that... 

I'll post the season-to-go updates in a few, but to me, I believe Leicester is in the CL spots for next season.

United & ourselves fighting for 5th & 6th (or worse)

[JP-65]

Here's the updated CL spot analysis:

1.59 ppg for Leicester, they have to be there, with Arsenal & City.

Leaves one spot between Spurs, United & ourselves.

5 points is a lot to gain on Spurs, we have to go on a real hot streak to get there....all the way to the end.

[JP-65]

The title race is between Arsenal & City....maybe Leicester as they continue to surprise?

[rickardinho1]

Here's the updated CL spot analysis:

1.59 ppg for Leicester, they have to be there, with Arsenal & City.

Leaves one spot between Spurs, United & ourselves.

5 points is a lot to gain on Spurs, we have to go on a real hot streak to get there....all the way to the end.

- Spurs in 4th are on pace for 65 points.
- West Ham are on pace for 63.
- United are the next closest challenger and are on pace for 61.5pts, but lets round to 62.

As such, if the team in 5th gets 62 points it would suffice for Leicester to get 63 to finish 4th (presuming a better GD than WH).

Meaning that Leicester may only need 20 more points from their remaining 17 games to get 4th. That would be 1.18 pts/game, or just over relegation form.

That is admittedly the view at one extreme, but it does illustrate how strong a position Leicester are in if they can go on almost relegation form from now on and STILL have a chance at finishing 4th according to the projections.

5 points isn't much in football though. For example, Spurs made up 6 points on us in the last two game weeks alone last season when we had games against Palace and Stoke. Also don't forget that Spurs also have to come to Anfield.

[Hij]

- Spurs in 4th are on pace for 65 points.
- West Ham are on pace for 63.
- United are the next closest challenger and are on pace for 61.5pts, but lets round to 62.

As such, if the team in 5th gets 62 points it would suffice for Leicester to get 63 to finish 4th (presuming a better GD than WH).

Meaning that Leicester may only need 20 more points from their remaining 17 games to get 4th. That would be 1.18 pts/game, or just over relegation form.

That is admittedly the view at one extreme, but it does illustrate how strong a position Leicester are in if they can go on almost relegation form from now on and STILL have a chance at finishing 4th according to the projections.

5 points isn't much in football though. For example, Spurs made up 6 points on us in the last two game weeks alone last season when we had games against Palace and Stoke. Also don't forget that Spurs also have to come to Anfield.

Mental.

[JP-65]

5 points isn't much in football though. For example, Spurs made up 6 points on us in the last two game weeks alone last season when we had games against Palace and Stoke. Also don't forget that Spurs also have to come to Anfield.

I've looked back at this, few teams move from their trend over an extended period of time, so yes, in the very short term swings happen, but over the course of half a season, for the more consistent teams at the top, 5 points swings are few & far between.

[JP-65]

Peruse this updated chart:

We were 1 point behind last year when Rodgers was fired.
We gained 3 points in Klopps first 9 matches.
We're now 4 matches into the 12 match "hot streak" we had last season, and have dropped 3 points.

So, currently, we're 1 point behind last season.

Over the next 8 last season, we went 7 wins and 1 draw....we're going to lose more ground here.

Then the last 9 we only gained 8 points, so we'll gain some ground here.

But that totals 30 from 17 or 1.76 ppg, so far Klopp has got 19 from 13 or 1.46 ppg.

I suspect we'll end up below last years 62,

[JP-65]

Leicester, 1 loss in 15 since Klopp arrived....to us!

Top 4 already determined IMO: Leicester, City, Arsenal & Spurs.  I'll post updated charts in the next day or so.

[farawayred]

Leicester, 1 loss in 15 since Klopp arrived....to us!

Top 4 already determined IMO: Leicester, City, Arsenal & Spurs.  I'll post updated charts in the next day or so.

Reverse mocker!

[zabadoh]

I added Leicester City to the chart, and they're already in 4th if they replicate last season's performance.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Arsenal	79	+35	+4	-2	-2	0
Man City	78	+45	-1	-1	-1	0
Spurs	70	+23	+6	+5	-13	+18
Leicester City	67	+27	+26	24	-12	+36
Chelsea	67	+20	-20	-11	+10	-21
Man Utd	66	+19	-4	-10	-4	-6
Liverpool	64	+8	+2	-1	-5	+4

Next round's equivalent results

Leicester City	1-3	Liverpool
Manchester United	2-1	Stoke City
Sunderland	1-4	Manchester City
Norwich City(QPR)	1-2	Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal	1-0	Southampton
Watford(Burnley)	1–3	Chelsea

[JP-65]

Updated PL table (Klopp time)

Interesting that, if you take the last 10 of last season, and the 23 matches this season, so 33 in all, Leicester are the top team

[JP-65]

Updated Title Race:

Looking more like 79 will win it...shocking

[JP-65]

CL spots: Leicester, City, Arsenal & Spurs have opened up too much of a gap for the pretenders to close, IMO

[farawayred]

Updated Title Race:

Looking more like 79 will win it...shocking

All we need to do is get 3 pts per game from now on.

[JP-65]

All we need to do is get 3 pts per game from now on.

 

[JP-65]

Updated PL table (Klopp time), probably the last post I'll make here.

FWIW, we're 6th in scoring and 14th in letting them in

[zabadoh]

Leicester is obviously charging through the field. 

We're about maintaining last season's form.

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Arsenal	77	+34	+2	-4	-3	-1
Man City	75	+39	-4	-5	+1	-6
Leicester City	73	+35	+32	28	-16	+44
Spurs	70	+25	+6	+5	-15	+20
Man Utd	67	+22	-3	-8	-5	-3
Chelsea	63	+17	-24	-14	+10	-24
Liverpool	61	+4	-1	-2	-2	0

Needless to say, it's a huge match between Arsenal and Leicester on Sunday.

Next round's equivalent results:

Aston Villa	0-2	Liverpool
Sunderland	1–1	Manchester Utd
Manchester City	4-1	Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal	2-1	Leicester City
Chelsea	2-0	Newcastle United

[zabadoh]

The title is Arsenal's.  Unless it's Leicester's or Spurs'

	Projected Points	Projected GD	Cumul PtsD	Cumul GFD	Cumul GAD	Cumul GD
Arsenal	77	+34	+2	-4	-3	-1
Leicester City	73	+35	+32	28	-16	+44
Spurs	73	+29	+9	+6	-18	+24
Man City	72	+35	-7	-8	+2	-10
Man Utd	65	+21	-5	-8	-4	-4
Chelsea	63	+19	-24	-11	+11	-22
Liverpool	61	+8	-1	2	-2	+4

Next round's equivalent results

Liverpool	1-1	Everton
Manchester United	1-1	Arsenal
Newcastle United	0–2	Manchester City
Tottenham Hotspur	3-2	Swansea City
Southampton	1-1	Chelsea
Leicester City	5–1	Queens Park Rangers (Norwich this season)

[diegoLFC7]

Theres no thread to post this in, but what date is the Derby moved to? Surely mid week?