Yeah our TSR is bad.... but then so are other measures Sotr, fenwick and PDO. Well not bad but mid table as opposed to where we want to be
The last 2 games have been bad however I've been following the numbers all season and it's been pretty consistent unfortunately - even when we've been winning. Basically our attack compensates for a lot.
However you do make some really good points and I don't want to over do the drama - we have things to improve rather than being in crisis
I'm not as worried about the central defence as midfield as I think in defence we have the personnel to improve but need better organisation
Both the numbers (the many shots conceded in total but doing slightly better in not conceding them from inside the box) and the eye test point to us having a huge problem off the ball in central mid and I'm not sure how we fix that with the current personnel
The "SAS" (bluergh) part of the season is over for the time being and we probably did make some defensive sacrifices to make that work - however we reorganise now we need to be better off the ball now as the attack won't be able to compensate in the same way
TSR, SOTR, and Fenwich are all limited and have the same issues, they take no account of chance quality, and as we are giving away a lot of shots from distance we will look relatively bad by those metrics. We are actually one of the better teams when it comes to PDO though, The reason for that is that we are creating good quality chances, so have a high scoring rate, and are giving up difficult chances, so have a very high save ratio.
When you start to include chance quality into the metrics, then we are doing ok. We are probably between 4th and 6th by those, and we are doing better than that in the league because Mignolet has saved more than expected (although that might have changed over last 2 games) and we have finshed our chances better than expected as well. Our scoring and save rates might regress, but we our underlying numbers are probably on target for about 4th, which is our realistic aim.
The other issue with those metrics is that they do not take into account game states. Teams that are 1 goal up tend to have a lower TSR as they start to shell and the losing team ries to get back in the game. We are only behind Arsenal when it comes time spent winning this season, so ratios like TSR will naturally be a bit lower than perhaps expected.