Author Topic: Climate Emergency is already here. How much worse it gets is still up to us (?)  (Read 368457 times)

Offline lfcderek

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1920 on: February 5, 2017, 07:26:02 pm »
Well Derek, looks like we get a chance to see what happens when Trump abandons all climate change legislation. If you're right then my son and future generations will be fine and you can say 'I told you so'.  If you're wrong will the millions of dead around the world be able to get any compensation from you and the other climate change deniers?

That's what I don't understand. There is no downside for humanity as a whole if climate change is taken seriously. Of course oil companies are happy to lie and distort facts (some of the same lobbyists who lied about tobacco are lying about climate change) but what's in it for you?



The Truth.








See the ACTUAL DATA in the previous graphs above



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Offline zebenzui

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1921 on: February 5, 2017, 08:32:10 pm »
The Truth.

And if you're wrong. You'll bring the millions that will die from the predicted consequences of climate change back from the dead, aye?

With a glib "what do you know, turned out to be verified by events", no doubt.

Offline lfcderek

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1922 on: February 5, 2017, 09:07:40 pm »
And if you're wrong. You'll bring the millions that will die from the predicted consequences of climate change back from the dead, aye?

With a glib "what do you know, turned out to be verified by events", no doubt.

They don't match the observations.
Therefore the Hypothesis is wrong.

And I'm still obliged to support the billions we are 'investing' in renewables ?
Am I?
Really.

Now it's quite clear I'm in a minority of one (or close to it) on here.

That doesn't release me from my own reasoning.

If I see that observations don't match the predictions then the hypothesis is wrong.
My own analysis that CO2 IS a green house and gives rise to a temp. rise of ~ 1 oC per doubling is supported by the data I have downloaded and analysed.

Show us your own data and analysis that refutes it.

Please. I would be interested.
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Offline theMilkman

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1923 on: February 5, 2017, 09:11:31 pm »
They don't match the observations.
Therefore the Hypothesis is wrong.

And I'm still obliged to support the billions we are 'investing' in renewables ?
Am I?
Really.

Now it's quite clear I'm in a minority of one (or close to it) on here.

That doesn't release me from my own reasoning.

If I see that observations don't match the predictions then the hypothesis is wrong.
My own analysis that CO2 IS a green house and gives rise to a temp. rise of ~ 1 oC per doubling is supported by the data I have downloaded and analysed.

Show us your own data and analysis that refutes it.

Please. I would be interested.

even IF it's only 1C per doubling, doesn't that's still mean that if we keep releasing ridiculous amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere we're going to make the planet uninhabitable for us?
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Online TepidT2O

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1924 on: February 5, 2017, 09:42:33 pm »
They don't match the observations.
Therefore the Hypothesis is wrong.

And I'm still obliged to support the billions we are 'investing' in renewables ?
Am I?
Really.

Now it's quite clear I'm in a minority of one (or close to it) on here.

That doesn't release me from my own reasoning.

If I see that observations don't match the predictions then the hypothesis is wrong.
My own analysis that CO2 IS a green house and gives rise to a temp. rise of ~ 1 oC per doubling is supported by the data I have downloaded and analysed.

Show us your own data and analysis that refutes it.

Please. I would be interested.

Even if global warming were proven to be utterly false, investment in renewables is still utterly correct.

It's still the only right course of action.

Carboniferous energy sources are finite.  They are more sources being found, but they are expensive to source, dangerous to extra and in increasingly environmentally sensitive areas.

Most of all, they are our most important chemical feedstock.  We cannot going pissing them into the atmosphere just because we can't be arsed to develop renewables.

In addition, the planets population is ever expanding, and is ever more advanced.  Extreme poverty has fallen considerably and education standards are consistently higher.  This demand for energy as a resource for communication (at the very least), is growing.....

And this is assuming global warming is a con...

There is no cogent argument for not developing renewables.  None

( oh, and from a chemist, please CO2)
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Offline lfcderek

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1925 on: February 5, 2017, 10:04:54 pm »


And this is assuming global warming is a con...

There is no cogent argument for not developing renewables.  None

( oh, and from a chemist, please CO2)

Touché  ;D

There is nothing, nothing wrong with developing renewables. Fossil fuels will definitely not last forever.

BUT

Do it when it's economically sensible to do so.

Not as the response to a flawed theory which predicts (incorrectly) a 3X multiplier from the climate system as a whole.

You're a Chemist? Chatelier someone?
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Offline theMilkman

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1926 on: February 5, 2017, 10:14:54 pm »
And I'm still obliged to support the billions we are 'investing' in renewables ?
Am I?
Really.


Touché  ;D

There is nothing, nothing wrong with developing renewables. Fossil fuels will definitely not last forever.

BUT

Do it when it's economically sensible to do so.

Not as the response to a flawed theory which predicts (incorrectly) a 3X multiplier from the climate system as a whole.

You're a Chemist? Chatelier someone?

I can assure you it's more economical for most non-oil producing countries right now to focus on developing their renewable energy sources

https://qz.com/871907/2016-was-the-year-solar-panels-finally-became-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-just-wait-for-2017/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-crushing-fossil-fuels

Quote
Government subsidies have helped wind and solar get a foothold in global power markets, but economies of scale are the true driver of falling prices: The cost of solar power has fallen to 1/150th of its level in the 1970s, while the total amount of installed solar has soared 115,000-fold.

The reason solar-power generation will increasingly dominate: It’s a technology, not a fuel. As such, efficiency increases and prices fall as time goes on. What's more, the price of batteries to store solar power when the sun isn't shining is falling in a similarly stunning arc.
« Last Edit: February 5, 2017, 10:18:12 pm by theMilkman »
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1927 on: February 5, 2017, 10:17:19 pm »


The Truth.








See the ACTUAL DATA in the previous graphs above





Haha. Let us know when you get your Nobel Prize.

That's not data - that's your interpretation of the data. Thanks for all your work but if it's all the same I'll trust the overwhelming consensus of real scientists who agree that global warming is real rather than a bunch of wierdos and nutters and lobbyists in the pay of the oil companies. I don't know why you're so obsessed with something you're clearly not qualified to talk about but I think we've played along for long enough.

We don't allow people to post conspiracy theories or anti-vaccination nonsense. I think we're done with climate change deniers as well.

A couple of Feynman quotes for you:

“Ordinary fools are all right; you can talk to them, and try to help them out. But pompous fools-guys who are fools and are covering it all over and impressing people as to how wonderful they are with all this hocus pocus-THAT, I CANNOT STAND! An ordinary fool isn't a faker; an honest fool is all right. But a dishonest fool is terrible!”

and:

“Of course, I am interested, but I would not dare to talk about them. In talking about the impact of ideas in one field on ideas in another field, one is always apt to make a fool of oneself. In these days of specialization there are too few people who have such a deep understanding of two departments of our knowledge that they do not make fools of themselves in one or the other.”

In other words, unless you are truly expert, don't act as if you were.
« Last Edit: February 5, 2017, 10:24:14 pm by Alan_X »
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Offline lfcderek

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1928 on: February 5, 2017, 10:32:18 pm »
Haha. Let us know when you get your Nobel Prize.

That's not data - that's your interpretation of the data. Thanks for all your work but if it's all the same I'll trust the overwhelming consensus of real scientists who agree that global warming is real rather than a bunch of wierdos and nutters and lobbyists in the pay of the oil companies. I don't know why you're so obsessed with something you're clearly not qualified to talk about but I think we've played along for long enough.

We don't allow people to post conspiracy theories or anti-vaccination nonsense. I think we're done with climate change deniers as well.


WOW!

The spirit of free speech and untrammeled dialogue is NOT dead after all.

I bow to your careful and reasoned analysis - duly chastened.

Did I mean that last sentence - Or I am taking the piss?


Anyways - you've persuaded me.

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1929 on: February 5, 2017, 10:34:59 pm »
Touché  ;D

There is nothing, nothing wrong with developing renewables. Fossil fuels will definitely not last forever.

BUT

Do it when it's economically sensible to do so.

Not as the response to a flawed theory which predicts (incorrectly) a 3X multiplier from the climate system as a whole.

You're a Chemist? Chatelier someone?
He was French...

May I ask, when is it economically sensible to develop renewables?

I would argue that now is exactly the time to do that...

A time was energy supply isn't so expensive as to be deleterious to Ives of the less well off... incest before it's too late....
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1930 on: February 5, 2017, 10:42:04 pm »
WOW!

The spirit of free speech and untrammeled dialogue is NOT dead after all.

I bow to your careful and reasoned analysis - duly chastened.

Did I mean that last sentence - Or I am taking the piss?

Anyways - you've persuaded me.


You're free to post that stuff anywhere you like - just don't post it here.

Peer-reviewed research rejecting Global Warming is almost non-existent. 69,406 climate scientists published in 2013-2014. Of those, 4 rejected Global Warming

Source: Powell, James Lawrence (1 October 2015). "Climate Scientists Virtually Unanimous Anthropogenic Global Warming Is True". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 35 (5–6): 121–124. doi:10.1177/0270467616634958. ISSN 0270-4676.

More than 90% of climate change denial literature is traceable to Conservative think-tanks in the US.

Here's a deal for you: Publish your work in a recognised scientific journal. When it's been peer-reviewed and verified, get back to us.
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Offline lfcderek

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1931 on: February 5, 2017, 10:43:04 pm »
He was French...

May I ask, when is it economically sensible to develop renewables?

I would argue that now is exactly the time to do that...

A time was energy supply isn't so expensive as to be deleterious to Ives of the less well off... incest before it's too late....

Tepid. Tepid!!

Reasoned dialouge!

Not allowed!

Fare the Well.

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Offline Conocinico

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1932 on: February 5, 2017, 11:18:33 pm »
You're free to post that stuff anywhere you like - just don't post it here.

Peer-reviewed research rejecting Global Warming is almost non-existent. 69,406 climate scientists published in 2013-2014. Of those, 4 rejected Global Warming

Source: Powell, James Lawrence (1 October 2015). "Climate Scientists Virtually Unanimous Anthropogenic Global Warming Is True". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 35 (5–6): 121–124. doi:10.1177/0270467616634958. ISSN 0270-4676.

Here's a deal for you: Publish your work in a recognised scientific journal. When it's been peer-reviewed and verified, get back to us.

If he did, wouldn't he be a part of the consensus as he's arguing that AGW is occurring with a doubling of CO2 resulting in 1 °C of global warming?
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1933 on: February 6, 2017, 05:22:18 pm »
Scientists trying to take stock and make sense of the Arctic heatwave. Thought this was an interesting essay, where one could change 'interesting' for a number of other words expressing concern.

Quote
What the heck is happening? By any measure, the heat wave of the winter of 2015–2016, as well as what we’ve seen this past fall and early winter, represent extreme events. I’d argue that last summer’s excessive storminess also represents an extreme, albeit one that probably prevented yet another record-low September sea-ice extent. As any climate scientist will be quick to point out, it is never wise to read too much into individual extreme events — they happen. And there are identifiable causes for the events. Stormy summers tend to bring cool conditions over the Arctic Ocean, and both of the recent autumn/winter heat waves could be related to unusual patterns of atmospheric circulation drawing tremendous amounts of heat into the Arctic Ocean. There has also been a recent shift in ocean circulation, with more warm water from the Atlantic being brought into the Arctic; these warm ocean waters prevent sea-ice formation and warm the overlying air.
 
One could argue that these events are just expressions of natural variability in Arctic climate superimposed upon the overall pattern of warming and sea-ice loss. But changes in extreme weather and climatic events in recent years have been well documented around the world. Heat waves have tended to be hotter, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, raising prospects for excessive precipitation. Random extreme events have always been a part of the climate system, but by loading the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, we’ve also loaded the dice. Are the recent events in the Arctic examples of what we’ll be seeing more of in the near future? Time will tell. But after studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/comment-crazy-times-arctic
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Offline Bob Sacamano

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1934 on: February 6, 2017, 07:41:40 pm »
Tepid. Tepid!!

Reasoned dialouge!

Not allowed!

Fare the Well.



Your posts were appreciated Derek. I don't know if you're right or wrong. Most of us have zero scientific expertise. So how do we judge the conclusions of scientists if we aren't competent enough to check their work? The easy and obvious solution is to trust the consensus and the peer review process. "Surely they can't *all* be wrong?" so the thinking goes. And for the most part, that is sound, practical advice. But every once in a while, it turns out that indeed they *were* all wrong and the paradigm shifts. Groupthink is a helluva phenomenon.

Anyways, your posts were eminently reasonable, respectful, considered, and unobjectionable to any fair-minded person. As far as I can tell, you took publicly available data and plotted it on a bunch of graphs. The horror!

Given the vast scientific consensus that stands against you, and from the perspective of a layman who cannot competently adjudicate the nitty-gritty details, it's highly probable that your analysis is lacking in some respect. A charitable and reasonable critic would take the time to explain how and why (from my recollection, Biolumin-something offered such critiques). But alas, Alan is neither charitable nor reasonable, and his authoritarian streak can only be subdued for so long.


Offline lfcderek

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1935 on: February 6, 2017, 09:05:13 pm »
Your posts were appreciated Derek. I don't know if you're right or wrong. Most of us have zero scientific expertise. So how do we judge the conclusions of scientists if we aren't competent enough to check their work? The easy and obvious solution is to trust the consensus and the peer review process. "Surely they can't *all* be wrong?" so the thinking goes. And for the most part, that is sound, practical advice. But every once in a while, it turns out that indeed they *were* all wrong and the paradigm shifts. Groupthink is a helluva phenomenon.

Anyways, your posts were eminently reasonable, respectful, considered, and unobjectionable to any fair-minded person. As far as I can tell, you took publicly available data and plotted it on a bunch of graphs. The horror!

Given the vast scientific consensus that stands against you, and from the perspective of a layman who cannot competently adjudicate the nitty-gritty details, it's highly probable that your analysis is lacking in some respect. A charitable and reasonable critic would take the time to explain how and why (from my recollection, Biolumin-something offered such critiques). But alas, Alan is neither charitable nor reasonable, and his authoritarian streak can only be subdued for so long.


I think that my comment 'Fare thee Well' will probably stand but I thank you for your kind and considered words.

I am a 'Skeptic' by nature - I really don't like to believe anything by anybody. With the data being so readily available on university and government sites, 'Global Warming' proved quite easy to do some (broad) checking. The divergences were so pronounced that I find it rather bewildering that it has maintained such a stranglehold on public and governmental opinion.

Conocinico hit the nail on the head when he highlighted that I believe

CO2 is a greenhouse gas
It will produce a temp rise ~ 1 oC per doubling.

This is true of most - NO - the vast majority of the skeptical community. When this community criticizes the extreme (as we see it) predictions and clarions of doom then we have people like Alan saying we are

a bunch of wierdos and nutters
that we claim that global warming isn't real
that he feels we should be done with climate change deniers

An important follow on Opinion of mine is that a 1 oC per doubling isn't dangerous to the human race. Indeed, the enriched atmosphere containing extra CO2 will result in improved crop yields throughout the world - to the benefit of ever growing populations.

Fortunately, I do believe that - 'Data will Out' -------------------- eventually.


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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1936 on: February 6, 2017, 09:30:50 pm »
If 1C warming isn't dangerous to the human race, then why have so many died from extreme climatic events of late?

Another 1C warming will be immensely harmful.

It's also ridiculous to ignore positive feedback loops.  The permafrost in Siberia is beginning to melt, that's beyond question, and you accept that warming is happening.  Hence, the warming will progress.
When the permafrost melts methane will be released from the permafrost, methane having a significantly higher GWP than CO2...
More warming..

In addition, warming will favour the endothermic discociation of methane hydrates this producing more methane into the atmosphere.

I'm not sure how you ignore these inconvenient truths...
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1937 on: February 6, 2017, 09:38:03 pm »
It's the ignoring of water vapour and its effect on warming that bothers me the most.  Over-focus on CO2 is just another diversionary tactic.  More than just carbon dioxide at play.

And to think I used to say I'd never come back in here.
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Offline Weescotty

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1938 on: February 6, 2017, 09:40:57 pm »
So what are the thoughts on Dr John Bates (40 years in the field, many at NOAA, and given an award by Obama) whistleblowing about the 'Pausebuster' paper.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1939 on: February 6, 2017, 09:45:48 pm »
It's the ignoring of water vapour and its effect on warming that bothers me the most.  Over-focus on CO2 is just another diversionary tactic.  More than just carbon dioxide at play.

And to think I used to say I'd never come back in here.
How has it been ignored?
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1940 on: February 6, 2017, 09:46:20 pm »
So what are the thoughts on Dr John Bates (40 years in the field, many at NOAA, and given an award by Obama) whistleblowing about the 'Pausebuster' paper.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1941 on: February 6, 2017, 09:49:55 pm »
Searched.  First page:

Breitbart
Daily Mail
Daily Caller
Zero Hedge (you can guess the side of the fence they sit on)

Oh, and THIS which smashes it to bits.  There's probably a reason he's now formerly employed by the NOAA.  Oh and as for awards given by Obama, the relevance of that is?

So yeah, you're having a laugh aren't you?  Another (seemingly) joke of a scientist trying to have a pop at data already scrutinised by his peers.  Andrew Wakefield of the climate change sceptics.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1943 on: February 6, 2017, 09:51:59 pm »
How has it been ignored?
By Derek to justify the minimisation, conflating the 1°C rise from carbon dioxide as an indicator that because it doesn't show 3°C in the trend that the data is wrong.  But the rest of the sources of warming are conveniently ignored as is the usual way.

I've got absolutely fuck all time for shitty science interpretations to be honest.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1944 on: February 6, 2017, 09:54:01 pm »
By Derek to justify the minimisation, conflating the 1°C rise from carbon dioxide as an indicator that because it doesn't show 3°C in the trend that the data is wrong.  But the rest of the sources of warming are conveniently ignored as is the usual way.

I've got absolutely fuck all time for shitty science interpretations to be honest.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1945 on: February 6, 2017, 09:54:06 pm »
CO2 is a greenhouse gas
It will produce a temp rise ~ 1 oC per doubling.
a bunch of wierdos and nutters
that we claim that global warming isn't real
that he feels we should be done with climate change deniers

An important follow on Opinion of mine is that a 1 oC per doubling isn't dangerous to the human race. Indeed, the enriched atmosphere containing extra CO2 will result in improved crop yields throughout the world - to the benefit of ever growing populations.

Fortunately, I do believe that - 'Data will Out' -------------------- eventually.
A 1 degree rise in sea temps would mean the end of, for example, the great barrier reef. The flow on effects of such disasters would be deleterious to the human race, not to mention the loss of natural diversity.

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1946 on: February 7, 2017, 12:08:48 am »
But alas, Alan is neither charitable nor reasonable, and his authoritarian streak can only be subdued for so long.

I'm extremely reasonable. It's reasonable to assume that when the consensus is in the order of 66,000 to 4 on the side of climate change, the reasonable course of action is to believe the peer-reviewed work of tens of thousands of experts in the field.

The world is in a complete fucking mess at the moment because it's become fashionable to think that opinions are the same as facts. That's fine if we're talking about a boy band or who should play up front in our next game, but sometimes allowing opinions to be seen as 'equal' to fcats or scientific consensus can have real consequences.

The death toll resulting from anti-vaccination 'opinion's is around 10,000 with 150,000 preventable illnesses.

A few weeks ago Naima-Houder-Mohammad died after spending thousands on a useless alkaline diet 'cure' for cancer. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38650739

People with treatable illnesses dies in agony and pain because they're persuaded to use homeopathy or black salve or some other dangerous pseudo-science.

But all of those will be overshadowed by a couple of orders of magnitude if climate change is real and is not tackled. It's already happening but I will probably be dead when the shit really hits the fan. It's not just rising sea levels, the likelihood of major water shortages, crop failure and other catastrophic events is real.

So call me unreasonable if you like. And maybe Derek is just one voice on a football website but there are other Dereks out there undermining people's trust in science.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1947 on: February 12, 2017, 12:28:52 am »
As the article points out, there's a fair bit of desperation in the ideas being proposed.

Quote
Physicist Steven Desch has come up with a novel solution to the problems that now beset the Arctic. He and a team of colleagues from Arizona State University want to replenish the region’s shrinking sea ice – by building 10 million wind-powered pumps [costing £400bn] over the Arctic ice cap. In winter, these would be used to pump water to the surface of the ice where it would freeze, thickening the cap.

...

It is an astonishing sum. However, it is the kind of outlay that may become necessary if we want to halt the calamity that faces the Arctic, says Desch, who, like many other scientists, has become alarmed at temperature change in the region. They say that it is now warming twice as fast as their climate models predicted only a few years ago and argue that the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global warming will be insufficient to prevent the region’s sea ice disappearing completely in summer, possibly by 2030.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/plan-to-refreeze-arctic-before-ice-goes-for-good-climate-change

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1948 on: February 12, 2017, 02:31:00 pm »
A crude metaphor:

If you're driving a car, do you wait until it's out of gas before you refill it?  Common sense suggests you refill the car before you run out.

Likewise, you don't wait until you have exhausted fossil fuels before retooling your technology and industry and infrastructure to run on something else.

I look at climate change denial and I'm strongly reminded of that Piers Moron video I just shared, where he took a rise in violent crime completely out of context to try and suggest the overall fallen trend was, in fact, rising, and so justify Trump's blatant lie that the crime rate was at its highest in 40 years.

Even if climate change was way off the science, it makes absolute common sense to wean humanity off oil, coal and gas right now, because there are feasible alternatives available that can generate jobs and new high tech industries.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1949 on: February 12, 2017, 02:38:26 pm »
A crude metaphor:

If you're driving a car, do you wait until it's out of gas before you refill it?  Common sense suggests you refill the car before you run out.

Likewise, you don't wait until you have exhausted fossil fuels before retooling your technology and industry and infrastructure to run on something else.

I look at climate change denial and I'm strongly reminded of that Piers Moron video I just shared, where he took a rise in violent crime completely out of context to try and suggest the overall fallen trend was, in fact, rising, and so justify Trump's blatant lie that the crime rate was at its highest in 40 years.

Even if climate change was way off the science, it makes absolute common sense to wean humanity off oil, coal and gas right now, because there are feasible alternatives available that can generate jobs and new high tech industries.

there are a lot of good economic arguments against fossil fuels, but I'm not sure that running out is one of them

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11971280/The-Earth-is-not-running-out-of-oil-and-gas-BP-says.html

Completely agree on the point that there are better, cleaner technologies that we're better off investing in. Something that gets precious little coverage is how much government money gets pumped into oil and coal subsidies.

https://thinkprogress.org/heres-how-much-the-world-s-biggest-economies-spend-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-5fc58562ef86#.ljfkct155
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 02:45:45 pm by theMilkman »
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1950 on: February 12, 2017, 03:32:20 pm »
The main thrust of my point is a number climate change deniers who have the attitude of "yeah, yes, we should switch to cleaner fuels, but we don't have to do it YET."

The impression I get from such people is that they want to squeeze fossil fuels until they're absolutely dry and then switch to something else, largely because by that time we'll have no choice.

It's an opinion that makes no sense to me.  If we can make the switch now, we should.
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1951 on: February 12, 2017, 04:07:58 pm »
there are a lot of good economic arguments against fossil fuels, but I'm not sure that running out is one of them

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11971280/The-Earth-is-not-running-out-of-oil-and-gas-BP-says.html

Completely agree on the point that there are better, cleaner technologies that we're better off investing in. Something that gets precious little coverage is how much government money gets pumped into oil and coal subsidies.

https://thinkprogress.org/heres-how-much-the-world-s-biggest-economies-spend-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-5fc58562ef86#.ljfkct155

Oil and gas is being consumed more rapidly than it is being formed. The earth is of finite size. Thus the oil and gas reserves are finite. Ergo, it is running out. The only debate is how long it would take.

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1952 on: February 12, 2017, 04:28:54 pm »
Oil and gas is being consumed more rapidly than it is being formed. The earth is of finite size. Thus the oil and gas reserves are finite. Ergo, it is running out. The only debate is how long it would take.

yes, my point was rather that if consumption at current rates means running out in about 100 years then it's not exactly a good argument for accelerating a switch towards renewables because the imperative there is to significantly reduce GHG emissions within 10 years. There are better arguments that stress the immediate importance of doing something rather urgently i.e that if we don't do something we'd have a potentially uninhabitable planet well before we have to seriously think about fossil fuels running out. And there are better arguments for doing something because we quite simply have better, cleaner alternatives that would create brand new industries filled with high tech jobs that don't require hazardous work in coal mines.

Of course that's forgetting for a moment that most of the people who deny climate change or or hold to outdated stereotypes about the quality of renewable energy tech don't really care for the quality of the arguments against them.
« Last Edit: March 1, 2017, 06:07:01 am by theMilkman »
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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1953 on: February 12, 2017, 05:30:57 pm »
But ultimately, given the reserves then to be in ethically dodgy areas, even if there is 100 years propping up the Saudis exporting Wahabism, postponing the diversification is not wise anyway. Oil should be chemical stock, not just burnt.

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Re: Climate change is already here. How bad it gets is still up to us - Discuss
« Reply #1954 on: February 12, 2017, 06:27:52 pm »
alternative renewable energy ends dependence on fossil fuels in politically and culturally complex areas where human rights are questionable.

There is a strong political, economic and environmental case to be in the process of switching now.
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For those interested:

Cambridge Climate Lecture Series 2017
23 February - 16 March 2017
http://www.climate-series.eng.cam.ac.uk/


Free to watch (live) lectures:
  • 23 February 2017 19:30, Baroness Bryony Worthington: 'Climate Change - a race between Physics and Politics' (link)
  • 2 March 2017 19:30, Anthony Hobley, CEO Carbon Tracker Initiative: '2°C Roadmap based on Financial Analysis' (link)
  • 9 March 2017 19:30, Prof Kevin Anderson: Deputy Dir. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change: 'Paris, climate and surrealism: how numbers reveal an alternate reality' (link)
  • 16 March 2017 18:30, Live Panel: Previous speakers plus Lord Martin Rees, chaired by Oliver Morton (The Economist)(link)
You can also register for tickets if you want to attend.
Lectures available on youtube afterwards (I can add links as they become available), twitter hashtag #CCLS17 if you want to chip in with the discussion.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 10:03:24 am by Red Raw »

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Thanks for those links, Red Raw - I'll have to watch them at some point.

The latest State of the Global Climate by the WMO is interesting. It says that 2016 was the warmest year on record, 1.1ºC warmer than pre-industrial times. Bearing in mind the rise in CO2 over that period is less than 50%, it raises questions for those who claim that climate sensitivity is about 1ºC. And 2017 is acting a bit weird so far, in the absence of El Niño, so let's hope it's just a blip.

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First coal-free day in Britain since Industrial Revolution

Britain went a full day without using coal to generate electricity for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the National Grid says.

The energy provider said Friday's lack of coal usage was a "watershed" moment.

Britain's longest continuous energy period without coal until now was 19 hours - first achieved last May, and again on Thursday.

The government plans to phase out Britain's last plants by 2025 in order to cut carbon emissions.

Friday is thought to be the first time the nation has not used coal to generate electricity since the world's first centralised public coal-fired generator opened in 1882, at Holborn Viaduct in London.

Cordi O'Hara of the National Grid said: "To have the first working day without coal since the start of the industrial revolution is a watershed moment in how our energy system is changing.

"The UK benefits from highly diverse and flexible sources of electricity. Our energy mix continues to change and National Grid adapts system operation to embrace these changes."

But Ms O'Hara says that while the country makes the transition to a low carbon system, coal remains an important source of energy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39675418?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
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Surprised its taken this long for the thread to be bumped.

Tiny hand dipshit Trump will take America out of the 99% globally supported Paris Climate agreement (Nicaragua wont sign since it doesn't go far enough and Syria is currently at war). He cites economic issues that places America at a "serious economic disadvantage”.

Elon Musk has already quit as White House Advisor over the decision.

Over 20 US state mayors have said they will defy the White House and continue its program of tacking climate change to the same standards as if they were in the Paris Agreement.

China and the EU have already stated that they will continue to honour the agreement and has no interest in negotiating a new agreement with the US.

And basically every single scientist agrees how much of a stupid decision this is.