Topic: General Election on June 8th

[BoRed]

Oh, no! Another anti-semitism scandal.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/controversial-former-lib-dem-mp-david-ward-selected-to-stand-in-election-1.436905

[SP]

Oh, no! Another anti-semitism scandal.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/controversial-former-lib-dem-mp-david-ward-selected-to-stand-in-election-1.436905

Seems clumsy rather than malicious. There are valid questions about the Israeli state persecuting Palestinians, that are especially incongruous given the Jewish people's history of being persecuted.

Of course after attending a holocaust event, such points are such a minefield that any politician with any nous would have steered well clear.

It won't impact his chances much in that seat though.

[BoRed]

Seems clumsy rather than malicious. There are valid questions about the Israeli state persecuting Palestinians, that are especially incongruous given the Jewish people's history of being persecuted.

Of course after attending a holocaust event, such points are such a minefield that any politician with any nous would have steered well clear.

It won't impact his chances much in that seat though.

Sure, but if Labour had suspended someone for antisemitic comments, and then reinstated him and made him a candidate in a general election, there would, at the very least, be an uproar about the party's leadership being incompetent.

[SP]

Sure, but if Labour had suspended someone for antisemitic comments, and then reinstated him and made him a candidate in a general election, there would, at the very least, be an uproar about the party's leadership being incompetent.

I believe Naz Shah is standing.

[The Gulleysucker]

Sure, but if Labour had suspended someone for antisemitic comments, and then reinstated him and made him a candidate in a general election, there would, at the very least, be an uproar about the party's leadership being incompetent.

And quite rightly so.

But frankly, what the Libdems do or who they choose is not really of much concern here, we know they can be as duplicitous as any of the other parties.

What is of concern, constantly, is the seeming ease with which Labour, a party most of us really do want to see as not being hypocritical but highly competent and above all in power, continually shoot themselves in the foot.

The latest... https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/857142725619142657

[zero zero]

Sure, but if Labour had suspended someone for antisemitic comments, and then reinstated him and made him a candidate in a general election, there would, at the very least, be an uproar about the party's leadership being incompetent.

Faux outrage!

[Libertine]

Oh, no! Another anti-semitism scandal.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/controversial-former-lib-dem-mp-david-ward-selected-to-stand-in-election-1.436905

Beggars belief how he can be selected again. Assume it's the local party deciding but surely the national leadership could do something about it?

That's one seat I hope we don't win.

[SP]

Beggars belief how he can be selected again. Assume it's the local party deciding but surely the national leadership could do something about it?

That's one seat I hope we don't win.

So you don't believe people can be rehabilitated?

[Libertine]

So you don't believe people can be rehabilitated?

Has he apologised or shown any contrition?

[Red Viper]

Still remember how gutted I felt when Dimbleby announced the exit poll for the 2015 election. At least there will be none of the disbelief this time around.

Oh God, that was horrible. At least this time around it's kind of expected oh and it won't be on my birthday.

[clinical]

Lib dem say they will raise taxes to pay for NHS 1%. I like their honesty if that's what it needs I'm happy to pay it.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Sure, but if Labour had suspended someone for antisemitic comments, and then reinstated him and made him a candidate in a general election, there would, at the very least, be an uproar about the party's leadership being incompetent.

Except that the LibDem leadership has already been excoriated for incompetence in many matters, and paid a very severe electoral price for these misjudgements. There's no double standard.

[hide5seek]

Sure, but if Labour had suspended someone for antisemitic comments, and then reinstated him and made him a candidate in a general election, there would, at the very least, be an uproar about the party's leadership being incompetent.

The party leadership is incompetent. In fact calling Corbyn and co incompetent is nice, they are much worse than that.

[redtel]

The party leadership is incompetent. In fact calling Corbyn and co incompetent is nice, they are much worse than that.

Afraid so.

I have voted Labour at many many General Elections but this time I have to think hard.

Burnham and Rotherham couldn't work with this leadership if you can call it that. Many other Labour MPs thought the same so I think that the priority for me is to get rid of Corbyn.

If he does reasonably well in the election he may hang on to power. If he doesn't they may force him to resign although knowing him he may cling on again. Leads me to vote Lib Dem as I can't abstain as its part of our hard won rights that we all have one vote.

Big decision for all Labour voters as the party is heading nowhere at the moment.

[ShakaHislop]

Those of you who do want to vote Labour but also send a "fuck you" to Corbyn, could make a contribution to the effort to unseat him.

https://ldislington.nationbuilder.com/donate

They'll be going after Emily Thornberry too so if you dislike her, that's an extra incentive.

[filopastry]

Afraid so.

I have voted Labour at many many General Elections but this time I have to think hard.

Burnham and Rotherham couldn't work with this leadership if you can call it that. Many other Labour MPs thought the same so I think that the priority for me is to get rid of Corbyn.

If he does reasonably well in the election he may hang on to power. If he doesn't they may force him to resign although knowing him he may cling on again. Leads me to vote Lib Dem as I can't abstain as its part of our hard won rights that we all have one vote.

Big decision for all Labour voters as the party is heading nowhere at the moment.

Realistically I think Labour will probably improve a bit as the campaign goes on, not for any particularly positive reason, just because its going to be hard for the Tories to scare voters with the prospect of Corbyn as PM when the polls are going to make it increasingly clear to many that isn't going to happen.

If Labour lose badly but get close to the vote share in 2015, I suspect Corbyn may be able to hang on pretty comfortably at least until the autumn and maybe even for longer.

People are quite happy to ignore unfortunate facts when it doesn't suit their core beliefs.

[Trada]

Labour easily beating Tories among voters under 40 despite being 20 points behind overall

The UK's generational split is bigger than ever


Labour is solidly ahead of the Conservatives with voters under 40 years old despite being more than 20 points behind in the polls overall, according to a significant new poll.

The mega-poll of nearly 13,000 voters by YouGov conducted over a two and a half week period found Jeremy Corbyn would be heading to Downing Street were the election decided by 18-40 year olds.

Labour is particular popular with women under 40, who split 42 per cent in favour of Mr Corbyn’s party and 27 per cent for Theresa May’s. 12 per cent support the Lib Dems. Men under 40 also back Labour by 32 per cent to 31 per cent for the Conservatives, with 18 per cent backing the Lib Dems.

But Labour is well behind in the polls overall – by around 20 points – because of significantly lower expected turnout among young voters and a huge generational divide.

The headline voting intention figures from the same poll are 44 per cent for the Tories, 25 per cent for Labour, Ukip 9 per cent, Lib Dems 12 per cent, and Green Party 3 per cent.

A clue to the gap comes because those under 40 report being significantly less likely to vote than those over 40. Just over 40 per cent of the younger cohort say they are “certain to vote” compared to 64 per cent of the older cohort.

The divide in the poll mirrors the split at the European Union referendum, where older voters pulled Britain out of the European Union against the overwhelming wishes of younger voters.

But Labour is well behind in the polls overall – by around 20 points – because of significantly lower expected turnout among young voters and a huge generational divide.

The headline voting intention figures from the same poll are 44 per cent for the Tories, 25 per cent for Labour, Ukip 9 per cent, Lib Dems 12 per cent, and Green Party 3 per cent.

A clue to the gap comes because those under 40 report being significantly less likely to vote than those over 40. Just over 40 per cent of the younger cohort say they are “certain to vote” compared to 64 per cent of the older cohort.

The divide in the poll mirrors the split at the European Union referendum, where older voters pulled Britain out of the European Union against the overwhelming wishes of younger voters.

[TepidT2O]

And young people sadly don't vote very much...

[CornerFlag]

We know this, but the push to get the young to vote is criminally undersold, never mind getting them to vote Labour (or in my case, Green).  The parties will go for the 'grey vote' because that's where the voting public are more located, so we're constantly going to see the younger generations passed over for the power these voters offer.

[Red Viper]

If anyone genuinely cared about getting young people to vote then there'd be a move to make voting online possible. It baffles me that you can vote by frigging post but can't do it online.

[Libertine]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49 (+6)
LAB: 26% (-4)
LDEM: 13% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-3)

(via Ipsos Mori / 21 - 25 Apr)

[Libertine]

So it seems the belief that the opposition is stronger in mid-term compared to the election was actually correct - who knew Labour had further to fall though....

[Banquo's Ghost]

If anyone genuinely cared about getting young people to vote then there'd be a move to make voting online possible. It baffles me that you can vote by frigging post but can't do it online.

Vladimir Putin likes this.

[Trada]

With Labour polling well with the under 40s better than the Tories maybe Labour should do a big push on the triple lock on pensions that they have promised to keep and the Tories haven't.

[filopastry]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49 (+6)
LAB: 26% (-4)
LDEM: 13% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-3)

(via Ipsos Mori / 21 - 25 Apr)

I think Ipsos Mori are one of the few phone pollsters for the election, there were some hopes those might show different numbers to the Online pollsters but those seem pretty similar to the other numbers we have seen apart from Survation

[SlowRap]

Labour easily beating Tories among voters under 40 despite being 20 points behind overall

Hope in this - at least young people can get behind Corbyn no matter how many times the traditional media tell us he's useless, unelectable, etc.

[The Gulleysucker]

If he does reasonably well in the election he may hang on to power...

The problem may well be in the definition of what reasonably well is.

If such a thing is possible it's a sort of pre-revisionism, but there may well be a feeling amongst his most ardent supporters that this leadership hasn't been given a chance yet, even if as seems to be on the cards, there's a catastrophic wipeout of Labour at the GE.

It won't be portrayed as the fault of the current leadership, it simply can't be as too many within the party have invested in this cult and seem to be in a trance like state of denial of any failings, so the fault and blame must lay squarely with all the usual suspects, the media, the vested interests, the Blairites etc.

And of course a side effect of a catastrophic result would be the opportunity for some to be able to ensure selection of any new candidates fit their idea of a Labour candidate mould...

I fully expect this leadership to carry on after the election no matter what, though this should be terrifying for anyone who wants to see any chance of a Labour victory .... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39713864 ... but I imagine it will be getting dismissed by all the usual suspects as simply pro Tory Kuenssberg propaganda by the Pro Tory BBC.

But here's an idea, instead of spouting rhetoric and ideas from the safety of their keyboards or to bubble crowds of the already committed, I'd quite like to see the likes of Milne, Mason, the boy Owen, Lansman and Schnieder all stand, not in safe Labour seats (that's if there are going to be any soon) but in marginals and then convince joe public that their ideas are such good practical ones, and convince them such that they'll get elected.

[Gerry Attrick]

Hope in this - at least young people can get behind Corbyn no matter how many times the traditional media tell us he's useless, unelectable, etc.

People tend to become more conservative over time though.

[filopastry]

With Labour polling well with the under 40s better than the Tories maybe Labour should do a big push on the triple lock on pensions that they have promised to keep and the Tories haven't.

I suspect the Tories will end up backing the triple lock anyway.

Economically its not something that either party should be offering realistically but that group is too powerful electorally to ignore.

[oldfordie]

Realistically I think Labour will probably improve a bit as the campaign goes on, not for any particularly positive reason, just because its going to be hard for the Tories to scare voters with the prospect of Corbyn as PM when the polls are going to make it increasingly clear to many that isn't going to happen.

If Labour lose badly but get close to the vote share in 2015, I suspect Corbyn may be able to hang on pretty comfortably at least until the autumn and maybe even for longer.

People are quite happy to ignore unfortunate facts when it doesn't suit their core beliefs.

I wish I could disagree over the vote share point but your probably right.
May refusing to take part in the debates could be a big mistake, I don't think she fears debating with Corbyn etc, she fears the scrutiny of the public, she cant answer their questions in the same manner or with the same points she would have made against Corbyn and all the other leaders.
Corbyns in a similar position, the most biting criticisms will come from the public. I cant see Corbyn being able to defend himself when the public tear into him.
 His support will be in the minority, they will stand and cheer enthusiastically at inadequate answers while people sit at home shaking their heads.
Whatever gains Labour make will be lost in the run up to the election.

[ShakaHislop]

Nice to see pro-Brexit Labour appealing to the Kippers...

[CornerFlag]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49 (+6)
LAB: 26% (-4)
LDEM: 13% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-3)

(via Ipsos Mori / 21 - 25 Apr)

Fucking 1%?!

[Thush]

With Labour polling well with the under 40s better than the Tories maybe Labour should do a big push on the triple lock on pensions that they have promised to keep and the Tories haven't.

How many young people even think about pensions at that time, let alone what the triple lock is and how will affect them?

[Zeb]

Labour easily beating Tories among voters under 40 despite being 20 points behind overall

The UK's generational split is bigger than ever


Labour is solidly ahead of the Conservatives with voters under 40 years old despite being more than 20 points behind in the polls overall, according to a significant new poll.

The mega-poll of nearly 13,000 voters by YouGov conducted over a two and a half week period found Jeremy Corbyn would be heading to Downing Street were the election decided by 18-40 year olds.

Labour is particular popular with women under 40, who split 42 per cent in favour of Mr Corbyn’s party and 27 per cent for Theresa May’s. 12 per cent support the Lib Dems. Men under 40 also back Labour by 32 per cent to 31 per cent for the Conservatives, with 18 per cent backing the Lib Dems.

But Labour is well behind in the polls overall – by around 20 points – because of significantly lower expected turnout among young voters and a huge generational divide.

The headline voting intention figures from the same poll are 44 per cent for the Tories, 25 per cent for Labour, Ukip 9 per cent, Lib Dems 12 per cent, and Green Party 3 per cent.

Can compare across to 2015. (Spoiler: Labour being popular with young people not new.) https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

Over 45s gave the 2015 election to the Conservatives. This time a third of Labour's 2015 voters over that age want nothing to do with Corbyn and they'll have a 70%+ turnout to say that.

[filopastry]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49% (+10)
LAB: 27% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (+4)
UKIP: 5% (-9)
GRN: 3% (-)

(via Panelbase)
Chgs. w/ Jan 2016

I suppose if you were scratching around for positives maybe Labour have bounced a bit from the 24-25% range at the end of last week

[cloggypop]

May refusing to guarantee the pensions triple lock on PMQs.

[SP]

Labour easily beating Tories among voters under 40 despite being 20 points behind overall

The UK's generational split is bigger than ever

All the age groups agree on unfavourable ratings for Corbyn personally.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ny1kfo8x0u/InternalResults_170420_Favourability_W.pdf

And you are playing with the figures.

In that poll the Tories are ahead in the age range 30-39. So Labour have a lead in the age groups up to 29.

And if look at the question, if there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for, the actual numbers for Labour are:

18-19: 29%
20-24: 27%
25-29: 27%
30-39: 20%
40-49: 17%
50-59: 17%
60-69: 13%
70+:  11%

Less than 30% in ALL age groups. Not good.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pvsh4yddit/InternalResults_170420_Demographics_W.pdf

[classycarra]

May refusing to guarantee the pensions triple lock on PMQs.

It's their early 'dead cat on the table'. Their strategy wants/needs people to be genuinely worried that Labour could get a reasonable vote turnout, and so announcing deliberately unpopular Tory tax policy might push some talk of that in the media. Helps in two ways as it will allow them the mandate to get rid of it in next government.

[SP]

Hope in this - at least young people can get behind Corbyn no matter how many times the traditional media tell us he's useless, unelectable, etc.

Delusion in that. It is cherry picking stats to misled. Labour merely winning the youth vote is nowhere near enough given the structural issues with the pensioner voting block.

[filopastry]

Yougov actually had a nice little chart on it yesterday.