Topic: Elections in Europe

[Libertine]

I wonder if this helps Macron or Le Pen and by how much? Or will it be an even split?

Certainly helps Macron that Fillon is staying in, in terms of getting to the second round.

Polls had Juppe favourite to beat Macron to the run-off, though it's uncertain if he would have maintained that in the heat of battle, considering his own ethical issues.

As to where Fillon's support will go in the second round, polls have a slight preference for Macron:

[Giono]

Ya, the hypothetical Juppe is like the injured Liverpool player that suddenly becomes world class.


The reality would be much different.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Ya, the hypothetical Juppe is like the injured Liverpool player that suddenly becomes world class.


The reality would be much different.

It's hard to say. Fillon was a lot higher than he is now before the scandals, so one would think any decent Republican candidate would score around 23% or so in the first round. Juppé has been convicted for a similar affair (ghost jobs) before though, but two things can be argued here: it seems to be widely accepted he took the fall for others, and his past mistakes are widely known so there are no surprises. Juppé has been polling decently for ages, but according to him he didn't want to subject his family to character assassination (which would no doubt happen). He is also more moderate than Fillon so an easier pill to swallow for centrists and lefties, and only about 40% of polled Macron supporters say they're certain they're voting for him.

The allegations surrounding Fillon's dodgy affairs first came out on January 25. Take a look at his polling record before and after: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l'%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017

Fillon's self-destruction has certainly helped Macron, but I'm still wary that a beleaguered Fillon might squeeze into the second round, whereupon many left voters might just stay at home instead of voting for him.

If the French left wasn't so fragmented Le Pen wouldn't even make it into the second round. What a pretty sight that would be.

[Giono]

Thanks for the info. Seems Fillion has recovered a bit. Seemed to dip from low 20's to high teens and now above 20 again.


I wonder what would happen if France would modernise to an alternative vote rather than a 2nd election day? Having the 50% mark as a necessity to be president is admirable. But having a 2nd physical vote with only 2 choices must suppress the turn-out.

[Zimagic]

I wonder if this helps Macron or Le Pen and by how much? Or will it be an even split?

Well interestingly Fillon is retaining support since the weekend. Monday night the party elite met and, despite all melting away in the previous 4 days, unanimously backed Fillon in his candidacy. All the news stories covering the rally on Sunday showed multiple interviews of supporters vowing not to vote, vote Le Pen or spoil their vote rather than vote "other centre" or left (because ultra-conservative, ultra-catholic Fillon has suddenly become a "Centre-right" candidate). Whether the coverage was intended to illustrate continuing support or to parody his supporters, what it has done is reaffirm the intent of large parts of the right to vote for Fillon and encourage wavering voters to consider him again.

He's back up to 3rd with 19% so still an outsider but he's seemingly gone from dead duck to a runner within 4 days. Add Macron's polled support as being 50% sure & 50% "but for a better candidate", you have to wonder how many of the centre-leaning right wing voters will swing back to Fillon in the coming weeks.

If he keeps spouting fake news and getting called on it (the "reporting on tv" of his wife's suicide), there's no chance. If he can get his agenda into the news rather than his scandals, he may pull enough support from Macron (who's looking increasingly bland and not as clean (tax evasion) as he was), we may see something. That said, the left, currently lost with their 3-way split between Hamon 13.5%, Melanchon 10% and traditional Socialist Party voters jumping on the Macron bandwagon, is not getting elected as things stand. We may see parts of that vote slide to Macron before the first round.

Hamon is interviewing on national TV (France 2) tomorrow evening, we'll see what he has to say to pull voters back to him & the PS party.

[Libertine]

Well interestingly Fillon is retaining support since the weekend. Monday night the party elite met and, despite all melting away in the previous 4 days, unanimously backed Fillon in his candidacy. All the news stories covering the rally on Sunday showed multiple interviews of supporters vowing not to vote, vote Le Pen or spoil their vote rather than vote "other centre" or left (because ultra-conservative, ultra-catholic Fillon has suddenly become a "Centre-right" candidate). Whether the coverage was intended to illustrate continuing support or to parody his supporters, what it has done is reaffirm the intent of large parts of the right to vote for Fillon and encourage wavering voters to consider him again.

He's back up to 3rd with 19% so still an outsider but he's seemingly gone from dead duck to a runner within 4 days. Add Macron's polled support as being 50% sure & 50% "but for a better candidate", you have to wonder how many of the centre-leaning right wing voters will swing back to Fillon in the coming weeks.

Well, the LR leaders had little choice but to back him, with Juppe refusing to join the race and Fillon refusing to withdraw. Barring some extreme further developments, he'll probably retain support from the core centre-right, conservative LR base - they have nowhere else to go in the first round. Hard to see him regaining the centrist, swing voters though, given everything that's happened.

[Giono]

Well interestingly Fillon is retaining support since the weekend. Monday night the party elite met and, despite all melting away in the previous 4 days, unanimously backed Fillon in his candidacy. All the news stories covering the rally on Sunday showed multiple interviews of supporters vowing not to vote, vote Le Pen or spoil their vote rather than vote "other centre" or left (because ultra-conservative, ultra-catholic Fillon has suddenly become a "Centre-right" candidate). Whether the coverage was intended to illustrate continuing support or to parody his supporters, what it has done is reaffirm the intent of large parts of the right to vote for Fillon and encourage wavering voters to consider him again.

He's back up to 3rd with 19% so still an outsider but he's seemingly gone from dead duck to a runner within 4 days. Add Macron's polled support as being 50% sure & 50% "but for a better candidate", you have to wonder how many of the centre-leaning right wing voters will swing back to Fillon in the coming weeks.

If he keeps spouting fake news and getting called on it (the "reporting on tv" of his wife's suicide), there's no chance. If he can get his agenda into the news rather than his scandals, he may pull enough support from Macron (who's looking increasingly bland and not as clean (tax evasion) as he was), we may see something. That said, the left, currently lost with their 3-way split between Hamon 13.5%, Melanchon 10% and traditional Socialist Party voters jumping on the Macron bandwagon, is not getting elected as things stand. We may see parts of that vote slide to Macron before the first round.

Hamon is interviewing on national TV (France 2) tomorrow evening, we'll see what he has to say to pull voters back to him & the PS party.

Thanks, I'll have to watch that online tomorrow.

I wonder if the splintered left voters decide later to plug their noses and vote Macron rather than getting 2 options of what they don't want.

[Zimagic]

I wonder if the splintered left voters decide later to plug their noses and vote Macron rather than getting 2 options of what they don't want.

As things stand, everyone will be voting "Not LePen" in the second round anyway, so the real question is what you're suggesting: Vote who you think stands for what you believe and see what happens between Macron & Fillon; or vote for who between Macron & Fillon you prefer so you can vote for them again in the second round. As things stand, if you get into the second round with LePen, you'd have to do something pretty monstrous not to get elected by a landslide vote and, barring a pre-election coalition on the left, there's only 3 horses in this race.

[Giono]

As things stand, everyone will be voting "Not LePen" in the second round anyway, so the real question is what you're suggesting: Vote who you think stands for what you believe and see what happens between Macron & Fillon; or vote for who between Macron & Fillon you prefer so you can vote for them again in the second round. As things stand, if you get into the second round with LePen, you'd have to do something pretty monstrous not to get elected by a landslide vote and, barring a pre-election coalition on the left, there's only 3 horses in this race.

I think Trump is an example to the left that if they can't agree between them, make sure there is a left of centre option at least against LePen. What is critical too is that Macron is pro Europe, so leftist voters should see the difference. Maybe if Fillion makes a late surge, they may see the light?

[Giono]

Hamon is interviewing on national TV (France 2) tomorrow evening, we'll see what he has to say to pull voters back to him & the PS party.

I went to go find it online, but not much success. French websites are cumbersome. Oh well.

But what shocked me in my search was to find out that Claire Chazal is no longer doing the weekend news on TF1...I had an older woman crush for her when I lived in France 10+ years ago.

[Zimagic]

I went to go find it online, but not much success. French websites are cumbersome. Oh well.

But what shocked me in my search was to find out that Claire Chazal is no longer doing the weekend news on TF1...I had an older woman crush for her when I lived in France 10+ years ago.

It's on tonight. If you miss it, it should be up on here from tomorrow: http://www.france2.fr/videos

Claire Chazal, yeah, TF1 just dumped her like a hot shite. They told her midweek that she'd be presenting until the following Sunday and just let her go. Ratings, age, politics all went into it. Sad.

Not as sad as Mélissa Theuriau leaving LCI though. That was another quick one. She came into work and her badge didn't get her through the lobby. When she went to the desk to query it, they gave her a carton with her personal belongings and her pink slip and told her to go away. That was the day I stopped licking my TV screen during the news. [cries]

[Giono]

Claire was an odd one in that she was media superstar and only did the news on the weekends. Yet had a baby with the weekday anchor.

[Giono]

Interesting article from Bloomberg about the defections starting from the Socialists to Macron as the 'great left hope':


https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-09/macron-s-momentum-grows-as-french-socialist-fights-defections

[Libertine]

So much of the external coverage on the Dutch election (next Wednesday!) focuses on Wilders.

Yet the big story is the collapse in support for the two government parties, the Socialists in particular, with the support they've lost spead among several parties, but with the Greens as the major winners.

[cloggypop]

So much of the external coverage on the Dutch election (next Wednesday!) focuses on Wilders.

Yet the big story is the collapse in support for the two government parties, the Socialists in particular, with the support they've lost spead among several parties, but with the Greens as the major winners.

The Socialist Party is actually increasing support. The VVD and PvdA are losing it though. They are the equivalent to the UKs Tories and Labour. PvdA disappointed a lot of their supporters by becoming too centralised.

Good to see GroenLinks doing well.

[Libertine]

The Socialist Party is actually increasing support. The VVD and PvdA are losing it though. They are the equivalent to the UKs Tories and Labour. PvdA disappointed a lot of their supporters by becoming too centralised.

Good to see GroenLinks doing well.

Bah, of course - getting confused with all the parties, should have said the Social Democrats of course.

Seems like a classic example of the struggles of Social Democrat parties - losing support to the left, far right and liberal centre, not knowing where to turn and end up pleasing almost no-one. Luckily the Dutch system allows this wandering support to be represented - in the UK it will/has just guaranteed a right-wing majority.

[DutchRed]

I'm fairly certain at least one of Le Pen, Wilders and Schultz will win their respective elections. Don't think there's any stopping it.

Not Wilders. He's losing momentum right now. A lot of his voters return to the Christian Democrats. For anyone fancying a bet the Christian Democrats are 16/1 to become the largest party and I'd say their chances are a lot stronger than 16/1.

[cloggypop]

Latest poll of polls has the CDA on 12%, level with D66. Can't see them winning myself like but you never know.

http://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/p/laatste-cijfers.html?m=1

[kesey]

Left.. Right .. blah .. blah .. blah ...   and bankers .

There ya' go.

Close the thread ya' divvies.

If you want to change things then change yourselves and stop giving your power away to the slight of hand .

Boom !   

[DutchRed]

Latest poll of polls has the CDA on 12%, level with D66. Can't see them winning myself like but you never know.

http://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/p/laatste-cijfers.html?m=1

I reckon CDA will be able to regain its traditional support in the south and win. We'll see though..

[cloggypop]

If you want to change things then change yourselves and stop giving your power away to the slight of hand .

Boom !

Donald Trump is very slight of hand

[B0151?]

Erdogan doing his best to give Wilders a last min boost I see

[cloggypop]

Yeah, terrible timing. Riot police, water cannon and horses used last night in Rotterdam against a pro Erdogan demonstration.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39246392

[Trev20]

We could do with a politician like Macron in the U.K.

[Cliff Bastin]

Wilders going to win now.

[SamAteTheRedAcid]

Donald Drumpf is very slight of hand

i like it!

[cloggypop]

Wilders going to win now.

I doubt it.

[cloggypop]

Worth a read if you have any interest in the Dutch election

http://www.politico.eu/article/three-myths-dutch-election-wilders-nexit-analysis-politics-eu-vote-populism-rutte/

[Johnny B. Goode]

Worth a read if you have any interest in the Dutch election

http://www.politico.eu/article/three-myths-dutch-election-wilders-nexit-analysis-politics-eu-vote-populism-rutte/

Thanks for that.

Someone on Reddit translated bits of Wildeers's manifesto and...it's just shocking. Plainly unconstitutional so there's absolutely no way it could have been implemented. His party also seems to be a shambles (a common trend amongst the far-right), so I'm glad he's losing momentum even if he was never going to get into power anyway. He's a clown, not a real politician and his ideas do not deserve to be validated or even treated as acceptable.

[cloggypop]

The best thing about Wilders manifesto is that it's only one page long.

[Caligula?]

He's going to technically win - but seeing as he'll have to form a coalition and no other party wants to with the PVV, he won't.

This is a good article I read recently about him.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-geert-wilders-the-dutch-trump-wins-even-if-he-loses

"If Wilders comes in first or second, but in either case doesn’t become the next Prime Minister or even part of the governing coalition, he still ends up a winner. In that outcome, he would receive an even bigger megaphone for stirring up anti-establishment and anti-Muslim forces, and could claim injustice at not being given a seat at the table. For him that kind of win might ultimately prove to be smarter than Trump’s. You can do a crazy-uncle routine all day from the sidelines, but doing it from a position of actual leadership, as we are seeing play out before our eyes, gets old very fast."

[cloggypop]

He probably won't technically win but yeah he's not forming a government anyway.

That New Yorker piece is poorly researched (which is a bit odd having just looked him up on Wikipedia). It claims the VVD to be the liberal party when they are the centre right Tory equivalent and vastly underestimates the number of parties (there's 28). It also doesn't mention Wilders trial finishing and Zwarte Piet season being over as reasons for his declining support in the polls. No mention of him having already been part of a previous coalition either.

[Caligula?]

He probably won't technically win but yeah he's not forming a government anyway.

That New Yorker piece is poorly researched (which is a bit odd having just looked him up on Wikipedia). It claims the VVD to be the liberal party when they are the centre right Tory equivalent and vastly underestimates the number of parties (there's 28). It also doesn't mention Wilders trial finishing and Zwarte Piet season being over as reasons for his declining support in the polls. No mention of him having already been part of a previous coalition either.

It does make a point though. At present, Wilders is free to spout as he wishes and his supporters eat it up. Governing is a whole different proposition though. He'd have about a million more things to worry about than just his anti-Muslim agenda. You're located in the Netherlands, so you obviously know that he'd get stuck in gridlock and can't just draft executive orders and do as he pleases like the other clown over in America. So in a sense, winning the election outright may not be the best thing for him.

[cloggypop]

It does make a point though. At present, Wilders is free to spout as he wishes and his supporters eat it up. Governing is a whole different proposition though. He'd have about a million more things to worry about than just his anti-Muslim agenda. You're located in the Netherlands, so you obviously know that he'd get stuck in gridlock and can't just draft executive orders and do as he pleases like the other clown over in America. So in a sense, winning the election outright may not be the best thing for him.

I don't think he'd have the manpower to do it. He's basically a one man party who's been hidden away from the world for his own safety since 2004.

[Libertine]

The Dutch go to the polls tomorrow.

Several polls today have seen Wilders vote plummeting (including one which had them at 10%, 2012 levels  )

Range of last day polls:
VVD (ALDE): 16-19.3%
CDA (EPP) 10.9-15.3
PVV (ENF) 10.2-15.5
D66 (ALDE) 10-13
GL (G/EFA) 9.3-13.1



Final seat predictions by Dutch broadcaster NOS:

[Libertine]

Turnout looks high, could be up to 85%.

@EuropeElects
Netherlands: Turnout in some polling stations hits 100%, e.g. Campus Wageningen University.

Apathetic young people, eh?

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Proportional representation eh, everyone has a stake

[DutchRed]

Turnout looks high, could be up to 85%.

@EuropeElects
Netherlands: Turnout in some polling stations hits 100%, e.g. Campus Wageningen University.

Apathetic young people, eh?

True, though that Tweet is nonsense. Everyone can vote at any polling station in their district, so turnout at a uni will obviously be a lot higher than the amount of people who are registered in the surrounding area. By that logic the turnout at Amsterdam's central station might hit 1000% or something.. Still the point stands. Turnout is huge and that is very interesting.

[killer-heels]

True, though that Tweet is nonsense. Everyone can vote at any polling station in their district, so turnout at a uni will obviously be a lot higher than the amount of people who are registered in the surrounding area. By that logic the turnout at Amsterdam's central station might hit 1000% or something.. Still the point stands. Turnout is huge and that is very interesting.

Is there any clues as to what a high turnout could indicate?

[cloggypop]

Proportional representation eh, everyone has a stake

Indeed. There's even an abstainers party for people who choose to cast a no vote for anyone. If they get seats they are promising not to vote on anything.