Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[oldfordie]

Sauce?

[oldfordie]

The Sturgeon's going for another referendum. Not surprised.

Hate referendums.

Don't suppose the government can just say no?

Can't blame them one bit, It will be boom time for Scotland if they remain in the EU after we have left.

[Elmo!]

The Sturgeon's going for another referendum. Not surprised.

Hate referendums.

Don't suppose the government can just say no?

The Scottish government can hod a referendum whenever it wants - like the EU referendum (and all others in the UK), it would just be advisory. Westminster can refuse to have something like the Edinburgh Agreement which committed both governments to respecting the outcome.

I don't think that would go down well though and would likely just increase support for independence.

[perspectiveplease]

Can't blame them, and there goes the Union.

Agreed. Desperately wanted them to stay last time around and still do. But I wouldn't bear any grudge against them for pursuing this after the Brexit vote.

[naka]

Agreed. Desperately wanted them to stay last time around and still do. But I wouldn't bear any grudge against them for pursuing this after the Brexit vote.

hope the scots push on with independence
will show the little Englanders  and unionists in NI the stark reality of their vote, rather than strengthen the country it fked it up

[Andy]

Agreed. Desperately wanted them to stay last time around and still do. But I wouldn't bear any grudge against them for pursuing this after the Brexit vote.

Same - I'm moving there if it all goes tits-up down here!

[killer-heels]

I hope they do become independent.

[west_london_red]

70% of Scotlands exports go to the rest of the UK, so if were out of the Single Market and they are in the Single Market that's going to hit them hard if their exports are then subject to tariffs, along with the huge budget deficit that they currently have.

Cant see how those two issues can be overcome as it currently stands.

[oldfordie]

70% of Scotlands exports go to the rest of the UK, so if were out of the Single Market and they are in the Single Market that's going to hit them hard if their exports are then subject to tariffs, along with the huge budget deficit that they currently have.

Cant see how those two issues can be overcome as it currently stands.

If we leave the EU and Scotland remains then theres a bigger market out their for them to exploit. I think it's pretty obvious what will happen, a exodus of British companys will just move up north into Scotland and many of the staff will follow.

[Elmo!]

70% of Scotlands exports go to the rest of the UK, so if were out of the Single Market and they are in the Single Market that's going to hit them hard if their exports are then subject to tariffs, along with the huge budget deficit that they currently have.

Cant see how those two issues can be overcome as it currently stands.

I think the 70% figure is misleading as I believe that any Scottish exports to the EU/rest of the world that leave the UK from English ports are counted as exports to the rUK.

The deficit figure is also misleading but I don't want to go too off topic in here.

[west_london_red]

If we leave the EU and Scotland remains then theres a bigger market out their for them to exploit. I think it's pretty obvious what will happen, a exodus of British companys will just move up north into Scotland and many of the staff will follow.

That bigger export market is already there for them now.

[Purple Red]

What happens if Scotland leave the UK then the EU rejects their claim for membership anyway? Shit creek without a paddle springs to mind.

[Elmo!]

What happens if Scotland leave the UK then the EU rejects their claim for membership anyway? Shit creek without a paddle springs to mind.

It's possible of course but v. unlikely given the indications from senior EU politicians in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.  I think the worst case scenario is UK leaving the EU before Scotland becomes independent and can negotiate continued membership, leaving a gap of anything up to a few years.

Even in your given scenario, I can think of one very important trading partner that would be desperately looking to sign some trade deals...... so might not be shit creek anyway.

[oldfordie]

That bigger export market is already there for them now.

Yes but it's a different ball game once England leaves the EU. at present the UK has a edge when it comes to exporting, we are members of the EU and have access to the single market, we are now throwing that edge away.
Scotland seem prepared to break away from the UK to keep that edge. they will gain from our loss, it's an easy move up to Scotland for many English company's. it will also be the most logical place for country's  outside the EU to invest in.

[MichaelA]

Yes but it's a different ball game once England leaves the EU. at present the UK has a edge when it comes to exporting, we are members of the EU and have access to the single market, we are now throwing that edge away.
Scotland seem prepared to break away from the UK to keep that edge. they will gain from our loss, it's an easy move up to Scotland for many English company's. it will also be the most logical place for country's  outside the EU to invest in.

It's a seductive line of thought, especially for Nationalists. However the obstacles to any of those outcomes are immense and would require an incredible amount of political and economic will to make every element happen. Even then, the timeframe for those changes already looks impossible. It's easy just now for Sturgeon to stand up at her party conference and tell the members that she's preparing the legislation for a second referendum - frankly that's a copy and paste job from the 2014 paperwork.

The game has undoubtedly changed in a post-Brexit landscape in Scotland, where many Labour and Tory supporters voted to remain in the EU. What Sturgeon has to do is persuade a significant number of those voters to switch from No to Yes, and there's nothing in the polls, in the SNP track record, or anywhere else that suggests that they have done enough. Yet. Some EU sabre rattling by Sturgeon for the benefit of Theresa May is useful right now in terms of softening those voters up; but to be honest she would have been better concentrating on winning the economic arguments that they lost in 2014. Beginning a negotiation process - or drafting legislation - to apply for separate Scottish membership to the EU would have been far more considered - more politically astute - and would assist in some of the long game aims around independence.

[Elmo!]

It's a seductive line of thought, especially for Nationalists. However the obstacles to any of those outcomes are immense and would require an incredible amount of political and economic will to make every element happen. Even then, the timeframe for those changes already looks impossible. It's easy just now for Sturgeon to stand up at her party conference and tell the members that she's preparing the legislation for a second referendum - frankly that's a copy and paste job from the 2014 paperwork.

The game has undoubtedly changed in a post-Brexit landscape in Scotland, where many Labour and Tory supporters voted to remain in the EU. What Sturgeon has to do is persuade a significant number of those voters to switch from No to Yes, and there's nothing in the polls, in the SNP track record, or anywhere else that suggests that they have done enough. Yet. Some EU sabre rattling by Sturgeon for the benefit of Theresa May is useful right now in terms of softening those voters up; but to be honest she would have been better concentrating on winning the economic arguments that they lost in 2014. Beginning a negotiation process - or drafting legislation - to apply for separate Scottish membership to the EU would have been far more considered - more politically astute - and would assist in some of the long game aims around independence.

The other issue for the SNP are the people who voted Yes in 2014 but also voted to leave the EU, they are a minority but a sizeable one. There was one post-EU referendum poll which suggested that, while support for independence had barely changed (47% I think), there had been huge swings in both directions. I tthink it had an 11% swing from No to Yes, and 10% swing from Yes to No from their last, pre-EU referendum poll. It could come down to what those voters care about more, leaving the UK, or leaving the EU.

[killer-heels]

I think its far too early to gauge the opinion just yet for an Independent Referendum. Like a lot of it, Brexit and the next 2 years will make the minds up of lots of people. We are heading towards a significant level of inflation and when you couple that with economic damage and job losses then quickly the minds can switch.

Sturgeon's approach to criticising the government is right but I kind of wonder whether she is has jumped the gun a bit. Constantly shouting about an independence vote makes it seem even to her own electorate that its all she and the SNP care about (which probably is true anyway).

[oldfordie]

It's a seductive line of thought, especially for Nationalists. However the obstacles to any of those outcomes are immense and would require an incredible amount of political and economic will to make every element happen. Even then, the timeframe for those changes already looks impossible. It's easy just now for Sturgeon to stand up at her party conference and tell the members that she's preparing the legislation for a second referendum - frankly that's a copy and paste job from the 2014 paperwork.

The game has undoubtedly changed in a post-Brexit landscape in Scotland, where many Labour and Tory supporters voted to remain in the EU. What Sturgeon has to do is persuade a significant number of those voters to switch from No to Yes, and there's nothing in the polls, in the SNP track record, or anywhere else that suggests that they have done enough. Yet. Some EU sabre rattling by Sturgeon for the benefit of Theresa May is useful right now in terms of softening those voters up; but to be honest she would have been better concentrating on winning the economic arguments that they lost in 2014. Beginning a negotiation process - or drafting legislation - to apply for separate Scottish membership to the EU would have been far more considered - more politically astute - and would assist in some of the long game aims around independence.

I think the will is there already, it certainly will be by the time the vote takes place. the economy etc.
As you say it is extremely complicated. it will be left to the legal experts to sort out, I imagine the most likely out come would be Scotland came out with us but the EU allowed them to rejoin in record speed. it would be a formality.
We saw the reaction from EU officials when the Scottish MEP pleaded with them not to desert Scotland in there hour of need. Scotland wants to stay in the EU. the whole room stood in applause.

[killer-heels]

I think the will is there already, it certainly will be by the time the vote takes place. the economy etc.
As you say it is extremely complicated. it will be left to the legal experts to sort out, I imagine the most likely out come would be Scotland came out with us but the EU allowed them to rejoin in record speed. it would be a formality.
We saw the reaction from EU officials when the Scottish MEP pleaded with them not to desert Scotland in there hour of need. Scotland wants to stay in the EU. the whole room stood in applause.

I am not convinced with the EU's so called love for Scotland, nor do I think they would accept them in quick time. Wouldn't it cause issues with independence debates elsewhere, like in Spain?

Personally I think it makes complete sense to send Scotland all the right noises from the EU side just to further increase the discourse and division between Scotland and the rest of Britain. If I were in the EU i would be doing all I can to punish the UK and really cause issues in the country and the Scotland GB/EU thing is a great opportunity to do that.

Putting pressure on Ireland to put in a hard border (even if you intend not to) is also another opportunity. Insist on it and let them argue it out.

[Elmo!]

Constantly shouting about an independence vote makes it seem even to her own electorate that its all she and the SNP care about (which probably is true anyway).

To be fair, aside from today (and it is the SNP conference, so it's a hard topic to avoid...), it is not Sturgeon or the SNP who are banging on about a referendum, it is Ruth Davidson and Willie Rennie. Davidson because it avoids her having to talk about actual Tory policies which go down like a lead balloon, and Rennie does it to desperately appear relevant and get himself on the news.

The SNP have largely only talked about it when pressed in interviews. I'm pretty sure the Scottish electorate know the SNP are about more than just independence - they have governed for 9 years now and still at 50% in the polls.

[killer-heels]

To be fair, aside from today (and it is the SNP conference, so it's a hard topic to avoid...), it is not Sturgeon or the SNP who are banging on about a referendum, it is Ruth Davidson and Willie Rennie. Davidson because it avoids her having to talk about actual Tory policies which go down like a lead balloon, and Rennie does it to desperately appear relevant and get himself on the news.

The SNP have largely only talked about it when pressed in interviews. I'm pretty sure the Scottish electorate know the SNP are about more than just independence - they have governed for 9 years now and still at 50% in the polls.

Indeed but perception is everything. I think the Scot's have a real opportunity and I am certainly no expert in the political make up there but you wonder if a more outwardly subtle and restrained approach and then go for the kill when the economy tanks is more likely to get the middle ground and risk averse voters over from No to Yes.

[oldfordie]

I am not convinced with the EU's so called love for Scotland, nor do I think they would accept them in quick time. Wouldn't it cause issues with independence debates elsewhere, like in Spain?

Personally I think it makes complete sense to send Scotland all the right noises from the EU side just to further increase the discourse and division between Scotland and the rest of Britain.

Good point about Spain. am sure that will carry a bit of weight but theres a difference in the circumstances. Spain will have that problem whether they are in or out the EU, the only reason for the Scottish vote would be over the EU.

[killer-heels]

Good point about Spain. am sure that will carry a bit of weight but theres a difference in the circumstances. Spain will have that problem whether they are in or out the EU, the only reason for the Scottish vote would be over the EU.

In such a heated conversation i don't think an pro-independence individuals will think so logically. Also, its not out of left field, its something that was attempted before so lots of people could see it as Brexit just being an excuse.

Obviously its just speculating but there is real gains for the EU in making things as divisive for Great Britain as possible and they have tonnes of ammo in our level of trade with them, Scotland and the border between Ireland and N Ireland.

[richiedouglas]

I am not convinced with the EU's so called love for Scotland, nor do I think they would accept them in quick time. Wouldn't it cause issues with independence debates elsewhere, like in Spain?

Personally I think it makes complete sense to send Scotland all the right noises from the EU side just to further increase the discourse and division between Scotland and the rest of Britain. If I were in the EU i would be doing all I can to punish the UK and really cause issues in the country and the Scotland GB/EU thing is a great opportunity to do that.

Putting pressure on Ireland to put in a hard border (even if you intend not to) is also another opportunity. Insist on it and let them argue it out.

I'm fairly sure Spain (maybe Belgium too?) have intimated they'd block Scotland ever joining They don't want breakaway republics getting their tails  up.

[Elmo!]

I'm fairly sure Spain (maybe Belgium too?) have intimated they'd block Scotland ever joining They don't want breakaway republics getting their tails  up.

Nope, the Spanish have said they wouldn't have aproblem with Scotland as long as it went independent in a way consistent with UK laws/constitution (and not a UDI for example).

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/09/15/spain-is-unlikely-to-veto-an-independent-scotlands-eu-membership/

[MichaelA]

I think the will is there already, it certainly will be by the time the vote takes place. the economy etc

You might think that, but there's nothing in voter polling to indicate any meaningful change in the voting intentions.

it is not Sturgeon or the SNP who are banging on about a referendum

Sure. Quoting this for the LOLZ, elmo 

I think the Scot's have a real opportunity

See above. Polling data suggests otherwise.

Nope, the Spanish have said they wouldn't have aproblem with Scotland as long as it went independent in a way consistent with UK laws/constitution (and not a UDI for example).

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/09/15/spain-is-unlikely-to-veto-an-independent-scotlands-eu-membership/

That's an old piece, but it has a resonance post-Brexit that would be a far more interesting line of argument than trotting out the promise of another referendum. As you say, it's conference season, so she needs to throw something to the activists, but the SNP have really spent the last two years whining about Westminster. They should have been concentrating on addressing the issues that turned off No voters, and in doing so they could have begun making Westminster irrelevant - it's the only way they could hope to persuade an overall majority of Scots voter to vote for independence.

[oldfordie]

You might think that, but there's nothing in voter polling to indicate any meaningful change in the voting intentions.

There will be by the time any vote takes place. the effects of inflation will be the tipping point and we haven't even had Brexit yet.

[Elmo!]

Quoting this for the LOLZ, elmo

I'm serious, apart from the likes of today at conference and the odd important speech, you won't find many examples of them bringing it up. They are constantly asked about it by the media, and by Lab/Lib/Tories, but they very very rarely actually bring up the the idea of having another referendum without being prompted (note that talking about independence is not the same as talking about having another referendum).

[killer-heels]

There certainly isnt any appetite for independence now and some people have said that if anything the gap would be wider. But this is only the start and god knows what is going to happen in the next couple of years.

[MichaelA]

god knows what is going to happen in the next couple of years.

Probably the most relevant comment today, anything can and will happen that will render our meanderings and speculation completely redundant!

[Redman0151]

https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/786590219659280385

UK government saying referendums aren't legally binding and parliament should decide whether to take action on results back in 2010

[cdav]

So Tesco and Unilever have agreed a deal on the price rises- will be interesting to see how this affects the prices in stores. I was also wondering about inflation which will obviously rise in the next few years as the fall in the pound feeds through into consumer prices, then you also have the national minimum wage rise to £9 in 2019 which will be inflationary on a lot of products made domestically, so inflation expectations will have changed.

Wouldn't put it past the Tories to cancel the NMW rise saying its unaffordable (for their donors).

[Red-Soldier]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/its-hard-brexit-or-no-brexit-at-all-says-eu-council-president

It's hard Brexit or no Brexit at all, says EU council president

The UK faces the stark choice of either a hard Brexit or no Brexit, the president of the European council has said – the first time he has taken such a clear line on the likely outcome of the UK’s exit talks.

Just hours after the foreign secretary, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, had told a committee of MPs he was confident Britain could strike a better trade deal with the EU after Brexit, Donald Tusk used a speech in Brussels to scotch the idea that Britain can “have its cake and eat it”.

Speaking to an audience of policymakers in Brussels on Thursday, Tusk – who chairs EU leaders’ summits – said it was useless to speculate about a soft Brexit, in which the UK remained a member of the single market. “The only real alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit, even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.”

That's a pretty clear warning shot!!

[oldfordie]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/its-hard-brexit-or-no-brexit-at-all-says-eu-council-president

It's hard Brexit or no Brexit at all, says EU council president

The UK faces the stark choice of either a hard Brexit or no Brexit, the president of the European council has said – the first time he has taken such a clear line on the likely outcome of the UK’s exit talks.

Just hours after the foreign secretary, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, had told a committee of MPs he was confident Britain could strike a better trade deal with the EU after Brexit, Donald Tusk used a speech in Brussels to scotch the idea that Britain can “have its cake and eat it”.

Speaking to an audience of policymakers in Brussels on Thursday, Tusk – who chairs EU leaders’ summits – said it was useless to speculate about a soft Brexit, in which the UK remained a member of the single market. “The only real alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit, even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.”

That's a pretty clear warning shot!!

That's very interesting, makes you wonder whats been said behind the scenes the last few months.
Wouldn't be surprised if the EU had already made this clear to May, she is now using spin to try and make it look as if her cabinet is calling all the shots and they are choosing a hard Brexit.
otherwise the Torys would have had to stand up in parliament admitting they were sent back from the EU with their tails between their legs.
So much for having the EU by the ba...

[redbyrdz]

That's very interesting, makes you wonder whats been said behind the scenes the last few months.
Wouldn't be surprised if the EU had already made this clear to May, she is now using spin to try and make it look as if her cabinet is calling all the shots and they are choosing a hard Brexit.
otherwise the Torys would have had to stand up in parliament admitting they were sent back from the EU with their tails between their legs.
So much for having the EU by the ba...

Interessing thought, could well be right.

The other thing I've heard is that if the UK would want to re-join sometime in the future it's 'go to the back of the queue'.  So maybe its the same for the 'soft Brexit': get out, and then re-apply for EEA membership....at the back.

[naka]

The thing is the EU have to drive a hard bargain otherwise the whole project will crash down around them.
It's a joke that the uk thinks they can piss off stop paying in their dough and get the same rights and access free gratis.
If they can do that then everyone will say what's the point .

Little Englander's like Frottage and boris really haven't thought the consequences through.( or indeed maybe they have and dropped out of negotiations akin to de Valera when Eire was negotiating with Lloyd George . They know it's a clusterfuck)

[oldfordie]

Interessing thought, could well be right.

The other thing I've heard is that if the UK would want to re-join sometime in the future it's 'go to the back of the queue'.  So maybe its the same for the 'soft Brexit': get out, and then re-apply for EEA membership....at the back.

Yes, they would certainly give the impression of. We will think about it.
 As we know it only takes 1 member country to block entry, something we found to our cost when we tried to join. de Ghaulle blocked us. I remember his name being dirt those days for that.

[west_london_red]

The thing is the EU have to drive a hard bargain otherwise the whole project will crash down around them.
It's a joke that the uk thinks they can piss off stop paying in their dough and get the same rights and access free gratis.
If they can do that then everyone will say what's the point .

Little Englander's like Frottage and boris really haven't thought the consequences through.( or indeed maybe they have and dropped out of negotiations akin to de Valera when Eire was negotiating with Lloyd George . They know it's a clusterfuck)

Right now there is a detachment from reality in certain corners of the Leave group such is their failure to grasp the situation. The one positive for me is putting the three Brexiters in change of negotiations, they'll try but the truth is that they have no where to hide, it's all on them to deliver and the more they say how wonderful things will be the more they are setting themselves up for a fall when they fail.

[TepidT2O]

Right now there is a detachment from reality in certain corners of the Leave group such is their failure to grasp the situation. The one positive for me is putting the three Brexiters in change of negotiations, they'll try but the truth is that they have no where to hide, it's all on them to deliver and the more they say how wonderful things will be the more they are setting themselves up for a fall when they fail.

True, but when they fail, we get utterly fucked.

So actually, it's not good at all. Sadly

[west_london_red]

True, but when they fail, we get utterly fucked.

So actually, it's not good at all. Sadly

The truth is anyone will fail now that we are in the position we are in so much have we backed ourselves into a corner, so if someone has got to be seen to be failing I'd rather it be those 3 cretins.