The Liverpool FC Forum > Liverpool FC Forum
The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA
Alan_X:
I've made an Excel spreadsheet that shows the run in series of games for each of the top six teams. I use it to play around with predictions and what-ifs.
After today's win at Burnley the Top six is as follows:
Chelsea P 27 Pts 66 GD 37. Maximum Pts 99
Spurs P 27 Pts 56 GD 33. Maximum Pts 89
Man City P 27 Pts 56 GD 24. Maximum Pts 89
Liverpool P 28 Pts 55 GD 25. Maximum Pts 85
Arsenal P 26 Pts 50 GD 24. Maximum Pts 86
Man United P 26 Pts 49 GD 17. Maximum Pts 85
Based on that there are four teams that could get more points than us which suggests that getting top four is no longer in our hands. I haven't worked out every permutation yet but there is one factor that I believe leaves us not only with our fate in our own hands but among the favourites to finish in the top four.
That factor is the Top Six Mini-League. We have now played everyone home and away except for Man City who we play next. That means that of the other five teams competing for a Champions League place only City can affect us. All the other games are in our own hands
The story is very different for the others who have to play two teams (Chelsea and Spurs), three (Arsenal) or four (Man City and Man United).
Chelsea - Man City (H) Man United (A)
Spurs - Arsenal (H) Man United (H)
Man City - Liverpool (H) Arsenal (H) Chelsea (A) Man United (H)
Liverpool - Man City (A)
Arsenal - Man City (A) Spurs (A) Man United (H)
Man Utd - Chelsea (H) Arsenal (A) Spurs (A) Man City (A)
That means that all of the teams around us can't achieve maximum points. This is simply illustrated by looking at the maximum totals for each team if the points are shared equally in the mini-league, ie all of the remaining games between the top six are drawn:
Chelsea Drop 4 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 95
Spurs Drop 4 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 85
Liverpool Drop 2 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 83
Man City Drop 8 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 81
Arsenal Drop 6 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 80
Man United Drop 8 pts - Maximum Possible Pts 77
If you assume all draws but one of the teams wins all of their mini-league games you get:
Chelsea win both (all other mini-league games drawn):
Chelsea 99; Spurs 85; Liverpool 83; Man City 80; Arsenal 80, United 76
Spurs win both (all other mini-league games drawn):
Chelsea 95; Spurs 89; Liverpool 83; Man City 81; Arsenal 79, United 76
Man City win four (all other mini-league games drawn):
Chelsea 94; Man City 89; Spurs 85; Liverpool 82; Arsenal 79, United 76
Liverpool win one (all other mini-league games drawn):
Chelsea 95; Spurs 85; Liverpool 85; Man City 80; Arsenal 80, United 77
Arsenal win three (all other mini-league games drawn):
Chelsea 95; Arsenal 86, Spurs 84; Liverpool 83; Man City 80; United 76
United win four (all other mini-league games drawn):
Chelsea 94; United 85; Spurs 84; Liverpool 83; Man City 80; Arsenal 79,
Of course there are many other permutations and many other variables, not least our ability to win games against the rest, but the bottom line seems to suggest that despite first appearances, it's up to us whether we finish in the top four because somehow, in some fashion, the other five challengers only have a limited number of points to share between them.
Add in the impact of cup games and that the others all have one or two games in hand to catch up we should be odds on to finish in the top four.
deFacto please, you bastards:
another variable to add now is Kane's absence for Spurs.
We have two big games coming up, which we usually do well in [City and Everton]. This league is all about momentum, we have no other distractions, no other competitions, we can only blame ourselves in the end if we fail to finish in the top four.
Crosby Nick:
That win today was crucial. Just gives us a buffer and some breathing space (until they play their games in hand anyway). United's games in hand are City and Southampton away I think they'll do well to win either. Arsenal always look like they'll finally crack and normally recover, hopefully this year will be different.
Djozer:
Cheers for the OP, interesting that the other teams in the top 6 have to take more points off each other than can be taken from us. Reasons to be cheerful, perhaps. Also, the fact that we have more games against non-top 6 opposition should be a positive, given that they are theoretically weaker than those above them.
I suppose the flipside is that we tend to do better against the better teams and the lower quality oppo who sit back and try and frustrate us often succeed where Spurs, Man City et al find it more difficult to play us. Swings and roundabouts, but I think if we can have a couple of months of form where we replicate how we were playing earlier in the season we'll be able to turn over most teams, bus-parkers or no. Big if, mind.
Hij:
Yes I had a lot of this in mind myself Alan (was hoping more for a 1st/2nd push as it goes a few weeks back) and had thought that there are a lot of 6 pointers that we aren't involved in. Thanks for going to the trouble to put it together We have 7/8 games in run in where a direct rival can't take points of us (no 6 pointers). If we can find some form in those ones it will be an advantage.
Someone said that the league game between Chelsea/United is scheduled for semi final weekend, so should be postponed whatever happens -means they could have all four of theirs in the last six.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
Go to full version