Topic: The China Express Train and how Europe is in decline

[Mad Men]

Having just been out to China, the words "shocked" beyond belief come to mind.

Absolutely amazing what they have done with their mega cities of Shenzen, Shanghai and Beijing, including spending USD$500 billion over the next 5-10 years out in West China to develop their oil and gas industry.

People talk about Europe not recovering from this current global financial crisis; over spending, fighting too many wars, wasting public funds on providing shelter for illegal immigrants, amnesty to every tom, dick and harry....and jobs being lost to Asia because it makes rational sense to move there.....I can see it happening in reality.

Europe, the United States...simply will not ever be the economic super powers they are/were....the future if China, India, South East Asia....they hold the wealth, the brains and will to be the new economic power's of the world...

I fear for the future of our youngsters and the next generation....we really screwed up BIG TIME.

[SwedenRed]

Agree... I have also been out to China a few times with business and they are taking advantage of the low wage massively in their favour.
*I think the only way the western world will be able to compete is by somehow dropping their salaries by a massive percentage. This isnt going to happen because
a: The rich and wealthy business owners/employees are too greedy.
b: The middle and lower class cant get a lower wage because they simply will not be able to live.

On the other hand China will not be able to cope with all this... Forget oil, because they already struggle with food and water shortages to feed their growing nation.
If you went away from the cities however, you will see the deporable state this country is in. I saw it for myself. I would not like anyone to live like they do in China.

[BazC]

There's still a LOT of development to be done over there before they even get to half the Western world's level of prosperity and wealth.

Maybe the smaller countries (following the likes of Japan, HK, Taiwan, S. Korea and Singapore in the last 80 years) but not China or India. They'll have pockets of wealth in countries and regions and cities within the larger countries, but to get a third of the world's population to a high level of prosperity will take many decades.

[rotistgeil]

Once the farmers knock on the door of chinese cities they will have a whole load of other problems imo.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

People talk about Europe not recovering from this current global financial crisis; over spending, fighting too many wars, wasting public funds on providing shelter for illegal immigrants, amnesty to every tom, dick and harry....and jobs being lost to Asia because it makes rational sense to move there.....I can see it happening in reality.

Would you care to expand on this bit as it doesn't seem to make any sense to me.

[Mad Men]

Would you care to expand on this bit as it doesn't seem to make any sense to me.

Western governments waste far too much money on wars, on food stamps for jobless people, the dole to the unemployed but in asia, they don't. If you don't have a job, you're basically screwed and its up to individuals to either go back home to live with their family's and to earn a living working in the fields or to make do somehow.

What I am trying to say is unlike western countries who spend crazy amounts of tax payers funds, countries like China spend the tax payers funds on programs to benefit infrastructure development, education and creating jobs through incentive programs for farmers to stay in farming or to move (i.e migrate from one part of china to another to get into farming where there are demands for farmers to run cotton, grape or rice fields)...

They are upgrading their infrastructure of their roads, railways and airports and creating jobs and the thing is, for the most part, all these companies who do get the contracts to do these projects are chinese companies, so the money paid out to these companies stays in China.

Their tourism is booming and they don't even need foreign tourist; the amount of chinese from within the country who are giving their tourism sectors a major boost are all from within China...

[bakstabba]

Western governments waste far too much money on wars, on food stamps for jobless people, the dole to the unemployed but in asia, they don't. If you don't have a job, you're basically screwed and its up to individuals to either go back home to live with their family's and to earn a living working in the fields or to make do somehow.

What I am trying to say is unlike western countries who spend crazy amounts of tax payers funds, countries like China spend the tax payers funds on programs to benefit infrastructure development, education and creating jobs through incentive programs for farmers to stay in farming or to move (i.e migrate from one part of china to another to get into farming where there are demands for farmers to run cotton, grape or rice fields)...

They are upgrading their infrastructure of their roads, railways and airports and creating jobs and the thing is, for the most part, all these companies who do get the contracts to do these projects are chinese companies, so the money paid out to these companies stays in China.

Their tourism is booming and they don't even need foreign tourist; the amount of chinese from within the country who are giving their tourism sectors a major boost are all from within China...

Interesting. So are you getting into a whole debate over welfare states? Equity vs Efficiency? Although I see China and India overtaking Europe and the U.S soon, (as has been said before) there are massive problems to do with the rural population and poverty

[Mad Men]

Interesting. So are you getting into a whole debate over welfare states? Equity vs Efficiency? Although I see China and India overtaking Europe and the U.S soon, (as has been said before) there are massive problems to do with the rural population and poverty

China seem to have it "together"...India on the other hand, still lost at sea. The world's biggest democracy can't seem to get out of 2nd gear. For all its gains, it is still plauged by massive problems with corruption, run down/poor infrastructure, a population that doesn't show any signs of slowly down in numbers, etc etc..

With the chinese, they have seen the problems and introduced a 1 child/2 child/3 child policy depending on where one resides...and they are spending huge amounts on developing infrastructure and rail services, medical services and education for those in the rural areas as they realize agriculture is crucial to the country's future as much as construction and the service industry.

[fudge]

Given the simmering industrial discontent that is rife in China at the moment its not all milk and honey.

At the moment they are living in a perfect economic period for the country, a refusal to let the currency find its own level, insanely low wages and a relatively docile work force and a police state that is on top of its game subjugating the people.

But the growing numbers of strikes despite the potential repercussions for those who take part and the increasing wages and living standards bring with it its own challenges. I'm absolutely certain they will overtake the US and just like the US i'm also sure they do amazing things and some pretty shitty things too as 'great' powers always do.

The thing I like about China is that they really do seem to buy into the super long term vision of strategy for the country which so few in the West do. So whilst everything is about doing the best for China they understand they don't want to be perceived as a threat to the West and a softly softly approach is more often the route they take , for the simple reason it works as a policy. Thats not to say they won't throw their weight around as thats inevitable but at the moment that would be the last resort. It also means they can deal far more effectively with the major threats that face us as a plane than is currently the case. Their approach to global warming is a case in point, it seems that they have grasped the fact that this is a potential barrier to them becoming number 1 and so as the biggest CO2 emitter of the 21st century is throwing itself into green technology with a passion.

I know this for a fact because I'm such a dab hand at Civilization and Sid Meier taught me everything I need to know about running a country, build more temples............

[Mad Men]

China has invested HUGE amounts of cash towards alternatives to coal power plants which they have been fond of building for their immediate energy needs given they have huge coal deposits. Go out to Xinjiang province and you will see the biggest number of wind turbines in Asia and the expansion of the use of hydro electric dams.

What China has is long term vision. Put aside the discontent of the lower classes who make up the vast majority of the population for a minute and realize this: they tore down practically ALL the old hutongs and townships within Beijing, and got a proper plan in place to form a CBD, parks, shopping and tourism hubs, government buildings, an underground rail system, bus system and bicycle lanes that work.

And are now pumping huge amounts of cash into agriculture and infrastructure, taking the population by the scruff of the neck and controlling the number of kids a family may have so it doesn't get out of control the way it continues to do so in India and Indonesia.

What China wants, it does. What it wants built, it builds. None of these time wasting council meetings, and nonsense we face with the building of our stadium in Liverpool. If it was in China, stadium approval would have been given a long time ago.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

So essentially you are advocating that we abandon not only social democracy but democracy itself.  You think we would do a better as an autocratic dictatorship or one party state.  Not only that but an essentially fascist state where the needs of the state take precedence over the rights of individuals.

[alfonso]

Western governments waste far too much money on wars, on food stamps for jobless people, the dole to the unemployed but in asia, they don't. If you don't have a job, you're basically screwed and its up to individuals to either go back home to live with their family's and to earn a living working in the fields or to make do somehow.

What I am trying to say is unlike western countries who spend crazy amounts of tax payers funds, countries like China spend the tax payers funds on programs to benefit infrastructure development, education and creating jobs through incentive programs for farmers to stay in farming or to move (i.e migrate from one part of china to another to get into farming where there are demands for farmers to run cotton, grape or rice fields)...

They are upgrading their infrastructure of their roads, railways and airports and creating jobs and the thing is, for the most part, all these companies who do get the contracts to do these projects are chinese companies, so the money paid out to these companies stays in China.

Their tourism is booming and they don't even need foreign tourist; the amount of chinese from within the country who are giving their tourism sectors a major boost are all from within China...

No mention of tea money.
To those that don't know what tea money is - it's the old brown envelope which goes a long way to get business done in most parts of Asia.
It can set back construction projects years or even halt them permanently.

And most Asians don't live a life of luxury unless you deem owning a phone as luxurious.

[GBF]

No mention of tea money.
To those that don't know what tea money is - it's the old brown envelope which goes a long way to get business done in most parts of Asia.
It can set back construction projects years or even halt them permanently.

And most Asians don't live a life of luxury unless you deem owning a phone as luxurious.

"tea money", "dowry", etc are a common feature of business in every part of the world.  Among car manufacturers, they (US, European, etc) usually ask their suppliers to give x million of dollars if the suppliers want to sell their products to them.

[SwedenRed]

China has invested HUGE amounts of cash towards alternatives to coal power plants which they have been fond of building for their immediate energy needs given they have huge coal deposits. Go out to Xinjiang province and you will see the biggest number of wind turbines in Asia and the expansion of the use of hydro electric dams.

What China has is long term vision. Put aside the discontent of the lower classes who make up the vast majority of the population for a minute and realize this: they tore down practically ALL the old hutongs and townships within Beijing, and got a proper plan in place to form a CBD, parks, shopping and tourism hubs, government buildings, an underground rail system, bus system and bicycle lanes that work.

And are now pumping huge amounts of cash into agriculture and infrastructure, taking the population by the scruff of the neck and controlling the number of kids a family may have so it doesn't get out of control the way it continues to do so in India and Indonesia.

What China wants, it does. What it wants built, it builds. None of these time wasting council meetings, and nonsense we face with the building of our stadium in Liverpool. If it was in China, stadium approval would have been given a long time ago.

What are your opinions on this?

The human impact of this fast growth has been massive. Millions of people have been 'forced' out of their homes to 'new' towns with worse living conditions. The Enviromental impact of especially the Huge Dams they have built has never been calculated. Scientists even think this could affect millions of people in the opposite end of China.
There are massive food and water shortages to feed the 'hungry' growth... Will they be able to sustain it?
Is this democracy? Not for me to be honest.

[Mad Men]

So essentially you are advocating that we abandon not only social democracy but democracy itself.  You think we would do a better as an autocratic dictatorship or one party state.  Not only that but an essentially fascist state where the needs of the state take precedence over the rights of individuals.

I think we need to take a good hard look at ourselves as a nation, as a people, as a government and realize why a large number of countries are going bankrupt essentially. We are just over spending ourselves as a society into bankruptcy. And we need to stop be lazy. We are lazy. We were lazy. We continue to get lazy and we expect everything handed to us on a silver platter.

In China, everyone slogs. EVERYONE.

As much as I love democracy, it has its flaws. And perhaps socialism/communism has its advantages.

We keep saying how perfect democracy is vs facism and socialism but look at where we are today?

WW2 veterans getting robbed at their homes, police under scrutiny for every little incident, border police being questioned for asking for an individual's passport (in the USA, Newsweek article yesterday, available for viewing on MSNBC.COM) and for "racial profiling", illegal immigrants with visa's which have expired allowed to live in the country at the tax payers expense even though we have laws that clearly state how long that person may remain in country and what they CAN and CANNOT DO (i.e working illegally).

I can go on...but at some point, you realize things must change.

[Mad Men]

No mention of tea money.
To those that don't know what tea money is - it's the old brown envelope which goes a long way to get business done in most parts of Asia.
It can set back construction projects years or even halt them permanently.

And most Asians don't live a life of luxury unless you deem owning a phone as luxurious.

It doesn't happen in Europe or the United States? Surely you kid me sir!

[Mad Men]

What are your opinions on this?

The human impact of this fast growth has been massive. Millions of people have been 'forced' out of their homes to 'new' towns with worse living conditions. The Enviromental impact of especially the Huge Dams they have built has never been calculated. Scientists even think this could affect millions of people in the opposite end of China.
There are massive food and water shortages to feed the 'hungry' growth... Will they be able to sustain it?
Is this democracy? Not for me to be honest.

No, because its China and they owe nobody an explanation but themselves. Why are they obligated to western countries to answer questions on EIA reports? Who are we to demand to know?

What they do with their citizens and their infrastructure is their business ain't it?

We can't seem to get our shit organized, so why do we need to worry about them?

[bakstabba]

Yep, totally agree with the long term view over short term "lets just get re-elected" attitudes. I think politics has been missing the longer term view for a long time, and it reflects on the voters as much as the politicians. There's no perfect political system. I remember there was a philosopher that talked about government moving in cycles, from monarchy, to oligarchy, to democracy, and then back again. Whether we'll return to a bunch autocratic states who knows.   

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

No, because its China and they owe nobody an explanation but themselves.

Do you really believe this to be so?   Germany in the 1930's?  Was that fair enough too?  Are you saying that it does not matter how unaccountable, corrupt and genocidal a state is as it is an internal matter.  Really?

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

We keep saying how perfect democracy is vs facism and socialism but look at where we are today?

I don't think anyone is claiming that democracy is perfect but when I look at where we are today we're not in an internment camp or gulag. 

[Mad Men]

Do you really believe this to be so?   Germany in the 1930's?  Was that fair enough too?  Are you saying that it does not matter how unaccountable, corrupt and genocidal a state is as it is an internal matter.  Really?

Genocide? Which 1? Was there one recently?

Yes, why must we as westerners demand answers to anything? Who exactly are we to demand China to answer for anything? And why on earth do the asian's need to bend backwards to us anymore?

[Mad Men]

I don't think anyone is claiming that democracy is perfect but when I look at where we are today we're not in an internment camp or gulag. 

Not all socialist countries have turned out bad.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

Genocide? Which 1? Was there one recently?

Yes, why must we as westerners demand answers to anything? Who exactly are we to demand China to answer for anything? And why on earth do the asian's need to bend backwards to us anymore?

Rwanda, Bosnia, Kosovo.  All recent.   Did the international community have a right to intervene in any of the above?

As for why?  There is a UN declaration of human rights to which China has, voluntarily, signed.  They have chosen to subject themselves to international scrutiny in order to reap the benefits that international trade brings.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

Not all socialist countries have turned out bad.

I'm not talking about socialism. I am talking about autocratic, dicatorial states - be they left wing or right wing.  They will always, eventually turn out bad because there are no checks and balances that allow for the removal of bad governments.

[Mad Men]

Rwanda, Bosnia, Kosovo.  All recent.   Did the international community have a right to intervene in any of the above?

As for why?  There is a UN declaration of human rights to which China has, voluntarily, signed.  They have chosen to subject themselves to international scrutiny in order to reap the benefits that international trade brings.

IC. So, what did the UN do about France kicking out the gypsies and trying to impose the head scarf ban on its citizens? Isn't that against basic human rights?

We can go on and on...but China seems to have set out a model that works economically and socially. And what I am saying is, maybe, we should take a look and see what they have got right rather than wrong.....

An end to our day's as economic power houses are pretty at an end..............

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

I am not against learning from China.  I am actually a pretty staunch defender of China on here.  However your desire to dismantle social democracy in some sort of Dutch auction like rush to match the "overheads" of the developing economies is ill thought out and hugely retrograde.

[Mad Men]

I am not against learning from China.  I am actually a pretty staunch defender of China on here.  However your desire to dismantle social democracy in some sort of Dutch auction like rush to match the "overheads" of the developing economies is ill thought out and hugely retrograde.

I believe change is needed. BIG changes...wholesale changes because our politicians, our system of government is failing.

[bakstabba]

I believe change is needed. BIG changes...wholesale changes because our politicians, our system of government is failing.

One example is the U.S. Its constitution has the beauty of having all these wonderful checks and balances between Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Executive. But all those checks and balances are starting to hinder progress, and any sort of new legislation. (If any legislation does get through, it is massively watered down. E.g. Financial Reform recently)

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

One example is the U.S. Its constitution has the beauty of having all these wonderful checks and balances between Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Executive. But all those checks and balances are starting to hinder progress, and any sort of new legislation. (If any legislation does get through, it is massively watered down. E.g. Financial Reform recently)

It is a price worth paying, because of what it prevents, is it not? 

[Dewey Finn]

Do any of you's actually live in China?

[Finn Solomon]

It has massive social problems just simmering beneath the surface, not least of which is the population imbalance between males and females. The central party has been keeping things under wraps for now, but the younger generation won't be content to sit down and shut up like their grandfathers forever.

Also bear in mind people once thought Japan's economic growth would continue unchecked and rule the world too.

[west_london_red]

Wage inflation will kick in in Chiina eventually like it does everywhere else.

With regards to Europe in decline, there are certainly problems in the European economic and social system, but Germany has just posted its best growth numbers in 20 years so I wouldnt write Europe off just yet.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

Good points above.  As China continues to become more prosperous then its citizens will begin to demand greater openness and freedom. China will slowly become more like a western democracy.  This is to be encouraged and is far more preferable to SS's rather bizarre view that we should throw away the rights that we have fought for centuries to achieve so that we can become more like China.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

Wage inflation will kick in in Chiina eventually like it does everywhere else.

With regards to Europe in decline, there are certainly problems in the European economic and social system, but Germany has just posted its best growth numbers in 20 years so I wouldnt write Europe off just yet.

It is already doing so, partly through progressive increases in the minimum wage by the state and has been further inflated by the chronic labour shortages in the main manufacturing areas at the moment.

I think the lesson that we can take from China is that "the market" is not necessarily the panacea for everything as neocons and the libertarian right would have us believe.  China's centrally planned economy is outperforming all other economies by a huge margin at the moment.

[Finn Solomon]

I think the lesson that we can take from China is that "the market" is not necessarily the panacea for everything as neocons and the libertarian right would have us believe.  China's centrally planned economy is outperforming all other economies by a huge margin at the moment.

JoeTwerp's gonna charge in any second now.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

China will never become like a western democracy, much as Japan never did despite its high economic growth.

I agree, which is why I said "more like" 

[Dewey Finn]

Good points above.  As China continues to become more prosperous then its citizens will begin to demand greater openness and freedom. China will slowly become more like a western democracy...

Really, why will they do that? Ever cross your mind that they have a different understanding of openess and freedom?

[Finn Solomon]

Really, why will they do that? Ever cross your mind that they have a different understanding of openess and freedom?

I've read numerous reports of Chinese netizens uncovering corruption within the police force, demanding fair trials for political prisoners, trying to find people who mysteriously disappeared without further information. Seems to me what they want and what anyone would want's pretty much the same. The party tries their best to kill them all, of course, but it's not a case of 'the Chinese are so different from us they don't even want freedom and openness.' Many of them do, and with the spread of information technology they'll fight harder to get it.

[Veinticinco de Mayo]

Really, why will they do that? Ever cross your mind that they have a different understanding of openess and freedom?

Culturally they are hugely different that is true, however it is clear that the younger generation are already demanding reforms and I think it is reasonable enough to assume that those demands will not go away and will eventually have to be met - at least in part.

[bakstabba]

It is a price worth paying, because of what it prevents, is it not? 

It goes way too far in my opinion. Something like the Australian Constitution is a lot better, apart from the Monarchy clause.