Topic: Results Comparison Thread: 2013-4

[PhaseOfPlay]

For sure, but we're not looking so good here, it's a bit of a concern

Very true, but I suspect that line goes back up if we win, say, four of our next five?

[helmboy_nige]

Very true, but I suspect that line goes back up if we win, say, four of our next five?

Very true.  It is a form guide though and we have stuttered a little in recent weeks.  Thing is that our form for the season (10 games so far) is 2 PPG and over the last 5 games it is 2 PPG.  We're doing fine, but it's early days and need to avoid getting into any bad runs.

[JP-65]

Very true, but I suspect that line goes back up if we win, say, four of our next five?

To me, it's saying our form has drifted recently, (our last 6 PPG is below the 1.8 PPG CL spot line) and 5 of our main competitors have gained ground on us, in fact, none have lost ground on us (as Man Utd have been as "bad" as us)

The trend is NOT good!

[Hij]

To me, it's saying our form has drifted recently, (our last 6 PPG is below the 1.8 PPG CL spot line) and 5 of our main competitors have gained ground on us, in face, none have lost ground on us (as Man Utd have been as "bad" as us)

The trend is NOT good!

We need to grind out a few more wins for sure but this is possible. I'm confident we'll get 3 next weekend and then it will be a case of building on that.

[mercurial]

To me, it's saying our form has drifted recently, (our last 6 PPG is below the 1.8 PPG CL spot line) and 5 of our main competitors have gained ground on us, in fact, none have lost ground on us (as Man Utd have been as "bad" as us)

The trend is NOT good!

Looking at the fixture list we should have around 22-23 points ideally. At the half-way stage 37+ pts is where we should be at after 19 games. If so, getting 17+ points from the next 9 fixtures will not be easy. That is almost at 2pts per game. Considering we have to play 4 tough sides in Chelsea, City, Spurs and Everton, this is a tough ask - specially away from home in most cases. If we plan to be top4 material then we need to start getting the tough points.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Looking at the fixture list we should have around 22-23 points ideally. At the half-way stage 37+ pts is where we should be at after 19 games. If so, getting 17+ points from the next 9 fixtures will not be easy. That is almost at 2pts per game. Considering we have to play 4 tough sides in Chelsea, City, Spurs and Everton, this is a tough ask - specially away from home in most cases. If we plan to be top4 material then we need to start getting the tough points.

So basically, we should be getting 15 points from the OTHER 5 games in those 9 fixtures, and then 4 points from the 4 "tough" games.

Seems doable to me.

Chelsea is the only game where I don't see us getting ANY points. The other three I think we'll win at least one. that leaves a point from the other two. We HAVE to win the other five though.

[BazC]

So basically, we should be getting 15 points from the OTHER 5 games in those 9 fixtures, and then 4 points from the 4 "tough" games.

Seems doable to me.

Chelsea is the only game where I don't see us getting ANY points. The other three I think we'll win at least one. that leaves a point from the other two. We HAVE to win the other five though.

I think that as long as we win the 5 against the poor teams, the other results are a bonus. They're away against the top teams in the league. It would be good to get a couple of draws, but I wouldn't expect any wins.

That would take us into the 2nd half of the season, where every top team bar Man Utd would be home games for us. Everton, Arsenal, City, Chelsea and Tottenham all at home in the 2nd half of the season - in those games we probably can expect some wins.

It boils down to the 5 games against relegation fodder/newly promoted teams though - they're must win games (no matter how much people may cringe at that phrase this early in the season... it's true).

[JP-65]

OK, let's look at these 5:

Fulham (H) Win  - Fulham have not won away, but have 3 draws, tend not to let in many.
Hull (A) Win - Hull haven't lost at home so far, 3 wins out of 5, but haven't played anyone good either.  Possible draw
Norwich (H) Win - Norwich are dire on the road, hammered by Arsenal & City, well beaten by Spurs so far
West Ham (H) Draw - 3 draws in 5 road matches, only 1 goal conceded (1-0 loss to Hull) & beat Spurs @ WHL 3-0, 0-0?
Cardiff (H) Win - thumped by Chelsea, not good on the road, other than Chelsea haven't played anyone good

So, possible 5 wins, but likely we'll draw 1 or 2...IMO

[the 92A]

For me the next five fixtures will give us a good indication of where we will be aiming for because that's what Rodgers has done successfully, collect points from the 'easier' teams'. I can't see us not dropping points, Hull have been unlucky in some of their fixtures but a decent run would relax me no end.

[BassTunedToRed]

I hope people don't mind me posting a link to my own work, but it's fairly relevant here

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/11/10/brendans-bottom-half-beatings/

Looks at our record in the PL against the top half of the table and also the bottom half.

I was inspired to write it after hearing from some on Twitter that routinely dispatching Fulham at home should be expected. Turns out that Rodgers has the best record against the bottom half of our recent managers.

It's just the top half that needs work, Brendan!

I'll delete the link if it's not cool to post your own stuff. Cheers.

[JP-65]

I hope people don't mind me posting a link to my own work, but it's fairly relevant here

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/11/10/brendans-bottom-half-beatings/

Looks at our record in the PL against the top half of the table and also the bottom half.

I was inspired to write it after hearing from some on Twitter that routinely dispatching Fulham at home should be expected. Turns out that Rodgers has the best record against the bottom half of our recent managers.

It's just the top half that needs work, Brendan!

I'll delete the link if it's not cool to post your own stuff. Cheers.

The more the merrier, and good to have quality stuff here Beez

[gray19lfc]

For me, we should be aiming for 2 points per game i.e. winning our home games/drawing away.  In that respect, we are currently +1 from total games played and exactly on target from home/away games played so far.

Since we last played in the CL, getting 2 PPG (76 points from 38 games) would get you in the top 3.  73 would of got you top 4 in all four of those seasons.

[BassTunedToRed]

The more the merrier, and good to have quality stuff here Beez

Cheers, John. As it's about results against different groups of teams it seemed relevant here, even if it's not exactly a results comparison thing.

[JP-65]

Cheers, John. As it's about results against different groups of teams it seemed relevant here, even if it's not exactly a results comparison thing.

I have that analysis in my data set but haven't bothered to post it yet for this season....it's always worth a look

[helmboy_nige]

I hope people don't mind me posting a link to my own work, but it's fairly relevant here

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/11/10/brendans-bottom-half-beatings/

Looks at our record in the PL against the top half of the table and also the bottom half.

I was inspired to write it after hearing from some on Twitter that routinely dispatching Fulham at home should be expected. Turns out that Rodgers has the best record against the bottom half of our recent managers.

It's just the top half that needs work, Brendan!

I'll delete the link if it's not cool to post your own stuff. Cheers.

Great read.

From a results comparison position, something very rare happened for this far into a season (especially for recent years).  My results comparisons don't go back too far (only to 2007/08) but each season since 2009 I've watched as we've fallen further and further behind in comparison to others.  However, that win against Fulham actually means that we are ahead or level with each of the last 6 seasons.

2007/08: 3 points up
2008/09: Level
2009/10: Level
2010/11: 1 point up
2011/12: 11 points up (shows how poor we were against the so called lesser teams)
2012/13: 4 points up

Of course the further back you go the harder comparisons are because of the number of teams that have changed in terms of relegation/promotion, but it's good fun.

Need to win at Everton to keep the run going.

[JP-65]

Some interesting shifts after this weekend's results

[JP-65]

Scoring & Defense Stats

[JP-65]

Last 5 season PPG trends

[JP-65]

PPG trends for last 6 matches, what a difference a week makes

[Anthony]

Fulham are level on Equivalent Points and only 1 point down on time??

[JP-65]

Fulham are level on Equivalent Points and only 1 point down on time??

Yup, they're winning enough of the one's that count in their "survival mini-league:

[JP-65]

BTW, Newcastle are regaining form, and creeping up the table.

[DyingAtheist]

Bizarre to see that despite Arsenal's great start - they're actually -3 in terms of equivalent match?

[BazC]

Bizarre to see that despite Arsenal's great start - they're actually -3 in terms of equivalent match?

The first game they played this season in which they lost points last season was our game last week. Before that, they'd got 3 points in every equivalent game last season. So that's their first 9 games in which they got max points from last season.

[Deo]

I find it pretty funny that City are actually doing better than last season.

[eirwen]

The equivalent match stat is very interesting.

[-HH-]

So there's 2 runs of games that I think will be season-defining - from now until the New Year is the first:


Everton v Liverpool Sat 23 Nov - Last Season D
Hull v Liverpool Sun 1 Dec - Last Season D
Liverpool v Norwich Wed 4 Dec - Last Season W
Liverpool v West Ham Sat 7 Dec - Last Season W
Tottenham v Liverpool Sun 15 Dec   - Last Season L
Liverpool v Cardiff Sat 21 Dec - Last Season W
Man City v Liverpool   Thu 26 Dec - Last Season D
Chelsea v Liverpool Sun 29 Dec - Last Season D

Last Season = 13 points

It's a run of 8 games, with 4 we'd be expected to win (though it doesn't always work like that) and 4 that will be amongst our toughest all season. It's 24 points up for grabs, we should be hoping for something like 15-16 points from that run of games to keep the pace, but it'd be no disaster if it were a few less than that. As others have said there's a lot more points in beating the teams well below us than the teams around us.

This run of 8 games also takes us to exactly halfway through the season - if we're still averaging something like 2 points a game at this point then we're in running for the title, nevermind top 4. It's worth remembering that once this run of games is over most of our tough away trips are over for the season. When the last 2 do come, they come in the March/April run of games which is the other that I think will define our season:

Southampton v Liverpool   Sat 1 Mar - Last Season L
Liverpool v Sunderland Sat 8 Mar - Last Season W
Man Utd v Liverpool   Sat 15 Mar - Last Season L
Cardiff v Liverpool Sat 22 Mar   - Last Season W
Liverpool v Tottenham Sat 29 Mar - Last Season W
West Ham v Liverpool Sat 5 Apr - Last Season W
Liverpool v Man City   Sat 12 Apr - Last Season D
Norwich v Liverpool Sat 19 Apr - Last Season W
Liverpool v Chelsea Sat 26 Apr - Last Season D

Last Season = 17 points

That's 9 games with 5 of them against teams in and around us. The difference is that as much as I think Southampton are an improving side, certainties I would think to finish top half, they have a similar problem to Tottenham with a lack of strikers scoring goals. They will continue to grind out results and going to St. Mary's will be tough as we saw last year, but I'd expect them to be 7th by the time that fixture rolls around. The other thing that's different is that where in the other run of games all the toughest games are away, in this run we have 3 at home which could be vital. Again, we should be aiming for about 17/18 points from that particular run if we want to be in with a shout of the title. For top 4, we can probably afford to drop points in a few more places.

Encouragingly, if you look at last season, we don't need a massive improvement with either run to meet those targets, and if we do meet both it'll be very hard to see us finishing below third.

[mercurial]

These games were also where we dropped points in the APLT as well. The trick is I guess is to turn {3W, 4D, 1L} into something like 5W or 4W+4D (tougher). The rest even if we lose a couple more, we stand to gain. The games against Hull, Everton and Spurs can be improved on and if we can win a couple of them we would be having wet dreams.

The mini table of the top teams also need to be considered. I do not think a team can get to 4th without getting 18 odd points from there. We have 3 so far (Mancs). We need to get about 5 more from the next set of {Spurs, Everton, City, Chelsea). For the same round of fixtures at home we should be targeting about 10-12 points. It will not be an easy ride till we get to game 19 and then if we are on 37+ points, then we will push on for a title challenge this year. I am sure that owners will take a call on the investment based on where we stand this year end. If we are in with a fight for the top, we will definitely see some buys and probably some painful departures as well.

[JP-65]

The form comparisons:

Southampton lead on the 6 match, we're not doing too bad though!

[actwithoutwords]

Last 5 season PPG trends

Dare we start comparing this season to 08/09? I certainly think it would be interesting to include that season as a benchmark?

[JP-65]

Dare we start comparing this season to 08/09? I certainly think it would be interesting to include that season as a benchmark?

I've been thinking of doing just that, may get to it next week

[mrantarctica]

Sure it's a good feeling to put away "lesser teams" but at some point were gonna have to get results against teams around us. Thus far we've lost to Arsenal, Man U and Southampton, which is ominous. We have games against Everton, Chelsea and City, and unless we collect some points in those games, we're putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to get three points against teams that might park the bus and be very difficult to beat.

Even if we get draws on the road, and turn those into wins at Anfield that'll do, but losing to these top 6 teams allows them to catch up (or get ahead) in a big way.  It just leaves us too much to do.

[stewil007]

Sure it's a good feeling to put away "lesser teams" but at some point were gonna have to get results against teams around us. Thus far we've lost to Arsenal, Man U and Southampton, which is ominous. We have games against Everton, Chelsea and City, and unless we collect some points in those games, we're putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to get three points against teams that might park the bus and be very difficult to beat.

Even if we get draws on the road, and turn those into wins at Anfield that'll do, but losing to these top 6 teams allows them to catch up (or get ahead) in a big way.  It just leaves us too much to do.

I dont think the carling cup loss counts in the league, we beat man u 1-0 when it counted

[artanis]

Sure it's a good feeling to put away "lesser teams" but at some point were gonna have to get results against teams around us. Thus far we've lost to Arsenal, Man U and Southampton, which is ominous. We have games against Everton, Chelsea and City, and unless we collect some points in those games, we're putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to get three points against teams that might park the bus and be very difficult to beat.

Even if we get draws on the road, and turn those into wins at Anfield that'll do, but losing to these top 6 teams allows them to catch up (or get ahead) in a big way.  It just leaves us too much to do.

We beat Man U at home 1-0 in the league. Lost to them in the cup.

[RedSoc]

Sure it's a good feeling to put away "lesser teams" but at some point were gonna have to get results against teams around us. Thus far we've lost to Arsenal, Man U and Southampton, which is ominous. We have games against Everton, Chelsea and City, and unless we collect some points in those games, we're putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to get three points against teams that might park the bus and be very difficult to beat.

Even if we get draws on the road, and turn those into wins at Anfield that'll do, but losing to these top 6 teams allows them to catch up (or get ahead) in a big way.  It just leaves us too much to do.

Personally I think the opposite. Results have shown this season that all top sides are struggling against so called lesser opponents, whilst we have faired pretty well.

It's nice to beat your near rivals, but ultimately our fate lies in being able to beat the teams we should do.

[mrantarctica]

I dont think the carling cup loss counts in the league, we beat man u 1-0 when it counted

Yes I know. My point is more with our away games. I think we do have to sneak some results there and then back that up with taking 3 points at home. That didn't happen last season. Thus far, for our away games we haven't really looked very good. We've got some crucial away games coming up, and unless we lift our performance and get draws/wins there, it'll leave us too much to do and a lot of pressure on a bunch of young lads at the business end of the season (quite a few of whom will have an eye on the world cup)

The reason being that if you are 3, 4 or 6 points up on a near rival for the season, then it's not such a big deal if you lose 1-2 shock games here and there against "lesser teams" because chances are they'll have a few upsets of their own too. However, if you're 4-6 points behind a rival for the season, then you can't afford to have such losses because you won't make up any ground on the table.

[Roady]

to be honest if we put to bed the teams we should beat,that should give us champions league football,we only need a couple of draws against the so called bigger teams.Thatd do the job.Granted for a push for the title you need to be getting good results against your nearest rivals but not for top four,it helps yes, but beat the teams we "should" beat and the rest will take care of itself.

[Brian Blessed]

Here's a statty article I thought I'd stick in here.
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/pitchside-europe/could-defence-cost-liverpool-top-four-spot-155410359.html

[PhaseOfPlay]

Here's a statty article I thought I'd stick in here.
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/pitchside-europe/could-defence-cost-liverpool-top-four-spot-155410359.html

We're conceding less than a goal per game though, so as long as we keep on that track, we'll be fine. A clean sheet against Everton would go a long way to helping that.

[JP-65]

We're conceding less than a goal per game though, so as long as we keep on that track, we'll be fine. A clean sheet against Everton would go a long way to helping that.

Joint 3rd behind Southampton & Spurs, not as good as we'd like, but not too shabby either...IMO