Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15  (Read 249156 times)

Offline flashman

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #40 on: August 12, 2014, 08:53:02 pm »
I noticed that, plus both Man City matches are highlighted. I thought I was going insane, counting 13 highlighted again again again.
Yeah need to remove that and add Swansea away

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #41 on: August 15, 2014, 11:09:10 pm »
Everton's fixture with Burnley is wrongly shaded a par 1 game, unless the model has been finessed!
Thanks

Should be correct now.

Any more errors please let me know.  :wave

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #42 on: August 16, 2014, 12:21:14 am »
Excellent work as always, looking forward to see how this plays out.

Offline rickardinho1

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #43 on: August 16, 2014, 02:15:55 am »
This thread was absolute gold in the second half of last season. It makes trends so clear to see, even though I think it can only truly be appreciated about 15 games or so into the season. Still, looking forward to another great season of APL! Thanks in advance Prof!

Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #44 on: August 16, 2014, 04:44:29 pm »
Looking forward to seeing Man U on -3
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Offline Reds Flag

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #45 on: August 16, 2014, 05:48:27 pm »
So far:

Man U -3
Everton -2
Spurs +2 (West Ham chucked it!)

If Arsenal could somehow not score for the remaining 72 minutes or so of their game, that'd be great...

Offline rickardinho1

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #46 on: August 17, 2014, 02:42:53 am »
So far:

Man U -3
Everton -2
Spurs +2 (West Ham chucked it!)

If Arsenal could somehow not score for the remaining 72 minutes or so of their game, that'd be great...
I think you jinxed it mate  ;)

 ;D

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #47 on: August 18, 2014, 10:21:52 pm »



Offline riismeister

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #48 on: August 18, 2014, 10:30:24 pm »
Spurs and City are gonna end up with 166 points at this rate.  >:(

Offline paddysour

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #49 on: August 18, 2014, 10:44:41 pm »
Spurs and City are gonna end up with 166 points at this rate.  >:(

On the plus side the red mancs will end on 0  ;D

Offline riismeister

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2014, 10:52:19 pm »
On the plus side the red mancs will end on 0  ;D
You just made me smile for the first time today. Thanks :)

Offline Tom18

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2014, 11:29:13 pm »
Well might have to cut United out of this after a few weeks I reckon  ;D

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #52 on: August 19, 2014, 10:49:12 am »
Here's the form band for this first round of games.

It's slightly different in as much as I'm going to include the scores for each H & A game, whereas last year it only had a star for each H & A game played.

After about 5 - 6 games I'll shuffle the teams to show their respective league positions.
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Offline ShayGuevara

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #53 on: August 19, 2014, 01:25:49 pm »
This thread was absolute gold in the second half of last season. It makes trends so clear to see, even though I think it can only truly be appreciated about 15 games or so into the season. Still, looking forward to another great season of APL! Thanks in advance Prof!

I actually enjoyed it more early days, was a good indicator of who was in a false position due to easier early fixtures.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #54 on: August 19, 2014, 01:47:52 pm »
Game on!

My favourite thread. Thanks in advance for yet another season well tracked  :)
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #55 on: August 19, 2014, 02:23:49 pm »
This thread was absolute gold in the second half of last season. It makes trends so clear to see, even though I think it can only truly be appreciated about 15 games or so into the season. Still, looking forward to another great season of APL! Thanks in advance Prof!

My feeling is that it's a useful indicator of quite a few things, even early on in the season.

To my mind last season we could see after about game 7 that Utd had done themselves too much damage to win it and by about game 12 we could see they weren't going to get a CL place.

I suppose after another few seasons it would be useful to compare the charts to see if we can determine what is thee decisive period of a league [commonly thought to be periods like the Christmas fixtures].

While the APLT isn't meant to 'predict' the season outcomes for sides you can read a lot from the results lines.

One thing I notice from the last three seasons of the APLT is how much work sides need to put in to recover from dropped par points; you need about 5 games to par [or better] to recover from dropping 3pts at home and it doesn't happen that often.
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Offline mabbympb

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #56 on: August 19, 2014, 03:12:41 pm »
Game on!

My favourite thread. Thanks in advance for yet another season well tracked  :)

I might read the results comparison thread for now, as we are +3 on that one, and have a free hit next week! (although this thread is the real deal)

My feeling is that it's a useful indicator of quite a few things, even early on in the season.

To my mind last season we could see after about game 7 that Utd had done themselves too much damage to win it and by about game 12 we could see they weren't going to get a CL place.

I suppose after another few seasons it would be useful to compare the charts to see if we can determine what is thee decisive period of a league [commonly thought to be periods like the Christmas fixtures].

While the APLT isn't meant to 'predict' the season outcomes for sides you can read a lot from the results lines.

One thing I notice from the last three seasons of the APLT is how much work sides need to put in to recover from dropped par points; you need about 5 games to par [or better] to recover from dropping 3pts at home and it doesn't happen that often.


For me it shows, your season against quality of opposition played so far. Last year, i recall Everton being low in the actual league table compared to LFC, but above us on the APLT. See the following table from Nov 3rd, http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.msg12138533#msg12138533 and compare to the actual Premiership table on Nov 3rd. Now although we know we finished way above them in the end, at this moment in the season, they were very real rivals for 4th position, and this table showed that. Whilst Everton maintained form to the 71 point line, Liverpool went crazy and clawed their way up, as the final table from last year shows.

                                  P    W    D    L    CS    FtS    F    A    GD    Pt    PPG
1    Arsenal                   10    8    1    1    3    0    22    9    +13    25    2.50
2    Chelsea                   10    6    2    2    3    3    16    8    +8    20    2.00
3    Liverpool                   10    6    2    2    3    2    17    10    +7    20    2.00
4    Tottenham Hotspur     10    6    2    2    7    3    9    5    +4    20    2.00
5    Manchester City    10    6    1    3    4    1    28    11    +17    19    1.90
6    Southampton            10    5    4    1    6    2    11    4    +7    19    1.90
7    Everton                    10    5    4    1    5    3    14    10    +4    19    1.90
8    Manchester United    10    5    2    3    2    2    17    13    +4    17    1.70
« Last Edit: August 19, 2014, 03:19:21 pm by mabbympb »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #57 on: August 19, 2014, 03:50:34 pm »
For me it shows, your season against quality of opposition played so far. Last year, i recall Everton being low in the actual league table compared to LFC, but above us on the APLT. See the following table from Nov 3rd, http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.msg12138533#msg12138533 and compare to the actual Premiership table on Nov 3rd. Now although we know we finished way above them in the end, at this moment in the season, they were very real rivals for 4th position, and this table showed that. Whilst Everton maintained form to the 71 point line, Liverpool went crazy and clawed their way up, as the final table from last year shows.

                                  P    W    D    L    CS    FtS    F    A    GD    Pt    PPG
1    Arsenal                   10    8    1    1    3    0    22    9    +13    25    2.50
2    Chelsea                   10    6    2    2    3    3    16    8    +8    20    2.00
3    Liverpool                   10    6    2    2    3    2    17    10    +7    20    2.00
4    Tottenham Hotspur     10    6    2    2    7    3    9    5    +4    20    2.00
5    Manchester City    10    6    1    3    4    1    28    11    +17    19    1.90
6    Southampton            10    5    4    1    6    2    11    4    +7    19    1.90
7    Everton                    10    5    4    1    5    3    14    10    +4    19    1.90
8    Manchester United    10    5    2    3    2    2    17    13    +4    17    1.70
[/quote]

I appreciate the point you make, it's pretty much what the APLT is all about.

However, there are other things that occur to contributors which are sometimes shown up in the APLT table and I was just commenting on one which had come to my mind.

Taking your point about the relative strength of sides, I think it would be possible [though certainly not conclusive] to see the affect on a side of a prolonged injury to a particular player or [as in the case of Suarez at the tail-end of last season] a player not scoring as many goals...would that coincide with a dip in form against par.

For me the beauty of the APLT is that there is so much in it to generate observations & discussion.

For example; one discussion which I'm looking forward to is that it's been claimed [in another thread] that the PL winner usually has a lower points total in the season after a World Cup...how far into the season would the APLT give us an indication whether that's true [or even whether it can].

The APLT is predicated on the idea that you need 90pts to win the PL, but that's not strictly correct [though I don't mean that as any form of criticism of the APLT], you only need 1pt more than second place and the average of 2nd place plus 1pt [what you really needed to win it] for the last ten years is only 84pts[the average for the winners actual totals from 05 thru 14 is 88pts].

So, how far into the season will the APLT indicate whether a lower post WC points total would be true for all of the top-4/ top-6 sides...whether only the top couple of sides will total lower points or whether they'll bunch up around the low 80's - high 70's.

As I've said, the APLT isn't meant to 'predict' anything but it's like a lovely thing you can't stop looking at n playing with.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2014, 03:59:34 pm by I-was-there »
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Offline barneystuta

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #58 on: August 19, 2014, 09:18:52 pm »
I have done my own take on this very much inspired by the APLT, which is based on a piece of analysis on Matchstory.co.uk

Basically, they ranked the difficulty of games based on paddy power title odds. You can see the graphic here  http://matchstory.co.uk/2014fixtures/

Before I post it (I don't want to crash this thread), would people be interested in seeing it?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #59 on: August 20, 2014, 12:06:54 am »
I have done my own take on this very much inspired by the APLT, which is based on a piece of analysis on Matchstory.co.uk

Basically, they ranked the difficulty of games based on paddy power title odds. You can see the graphic here  http://matchstory.co.uk/2014fixtures/

Before I post it (I don't want to crash this thread), would people be interested in seeing it?
I'm happy for you to post it here, but you might be better with a new thread so it doesn't get lost.  Not everyone comes in here, and it generally gets looked at after the weekend fixtures finish, and more so later in the season.

Offline rickardinho1

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #60 on: August 20, 2014, 12:42:31 am »
My feeling is that it's a useful indicator of quite a few things, even early on in the season.

To my mind last season we could see after about game 7 that Utd had done themselves too much damage to win it and by about game 12 we could see they weren't going to get a CL place.

I suppose after another few seasons it would be useful to compare the charts to see if we can determine what is thee decisive period of a league [commonly thought to be periods like the Christmas fixtures].

While the APLT isn't meant to 'predict' the season outcomes for sides you can read a lot from the results lines.

One thing I notice from the last three seasons of the APLT is how much work sides need to put in to recover from dropped par points; you need about 5 games to par [or better] to recover from dropping 3pts at home and it doesn't happen that often.
Actually you're very right about the early games. I remember seeing that although we were 8 points behind Arsenal early on, we had played a lot of our tough fixtures early so weren't as far behind in the adjusted APLT.

With the exception of Spurs now it already looks indicative of the rest of the season too :)

Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #61 on: August 20, 2014, 01:42:14 am »
Actually you're very right about the early games. I remember seeing that although we were 8 points behind Arsenal early on, we had played a lot of our tough fixtures early so weren't as far behind in the adjusted APLT.

With the exception of Spurs now it already looks indicative of the rest of the season too :)

Still early days but you are right the games the teams on the APLT played, those are the sort of games you are expected to win if you want to be champions

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #62 on: August 20, 2014, 11:31:04 am »

On the plus side the red mancs will end on 0  ;D

Nope, minus-24.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #63 on: August 20, 2014, 02:08:58 pm »
I'm happy for you to post it here, but you might be better with a new thread so it doesn't get lost.  Not everyone comes in here, and it generally gets looked at after the weekend fixtures finish, and more so later in the season.

Cheers Prof, I will post in here for now and see how it goes. As the season progresses and it starts to flesh out, I may start a new topic as things become a bit clearer.

==

Anyway, the logic is all here - https://thisisanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/08/15/a-marathon-not-a-sprint-how-will-next-season-play-out/

In brief I did the following:

- Took a graphic from matchstory.co.uk which factored in match difficulty based on PaddyPower odds
- Allocated a 'expected points' value based on the match difficulty in order to hit 86 points
- I will track actual points V projected points over the season for the five Premier League 'favourites' (Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool)

The post as a lot more detail as to why I chose these numbers based on a retrospective look of last season,.

This is how things look after one week:



I won't do a graph just yet, I will give it a few games for things to flesh out and see how things go :)

Offline rickardinho1

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #64 on: August 20, 2014, 03:12:31 pm »
- I will track actual points V projected points over the season for the five Premier League 'favourites' (Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool)
Great idea, but I reckon you could save yourself a good deal of time by not bothering with United.  ;)

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #65 on: August 20, 2014, 03:32:31 pm »
Cheers Prof, I will post in here for now and see how it goes. As the season progresses and it starts to flesh out, I may start a new topic as things become a bit clearer.

==

Anyway, the logic is all here - https://thisisanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/08/15/a-marathon-not-a-sprint-how-will-next-season-play-out/

In brief I did the following:

- Took a graphic from matchstory.co.uk which factored in match difficulty based on PaddyPower odds
- Allocated a 'expected points' value based on the match difficulty in order to hit 86 points
- I will track actual points V projected points over the season for the five Premier League 'favourites' (Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool)

The post as a lot more detail as to why I chose these numbers based on a retrospective look of last season,.

This is how things look after one week:



I won't do a graph just yet, I will give it a few games for things to flesh out and see how things go :)
Is it going to be based on the odds at the start of the season or odds at the time of the game? Very cool stuff.

United were expected to get 2.8 points against Swansea??!!? That's nuts.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #66 on: August 20, 2014, 03:41:57 pm »

Is it going to be based on the odds at the start of the season or odds at the time of the game? Very cool stuff.

United were expected to get 2.8 points against Swansea??!!? That's nuts.

Even nutser is that Sunderland are 4-to-1 to beat them AT HOME.

Am I going crazy or is that crazy?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #67 on: August 20, 2014, 07:15:38 pm »
Is it going to be based on the odds at the start of the season or odds at the time of the game? Very cool stuff.

United were expected to get 2.8 points against Swansea??!!? That's nuts.

If United were to finish on 86 points, then I projected that they would need 2.8 points against Swansea. It was deemed an "easy"  game, but not the easiest (where you should be taking 3 points).

The odds are based on the odds of winning the league at the start of the season and are not dynamic based on the relative difficulties as the seasons progress :)

Still, it should give a good indication of relative performance.

A good example of how it works is: If United and City were "on track" for 86 points after 8 games, United 'should' be 4 points ahead of City since they have a much easier start.

More info is on the blog post if you want to see a retrospective on last season, things will be a bit clearer then.


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Re: Projected v Actual Points [MatchStory]
« Reply #68 on: August 22, 2014, 12:32:15 pm »
I've just looked at my projected points totals for the weekend, and most interesting is United.

After losing their first game, which was classed as 'easy', they are already -2.8 points.

In order to claw it back, they need to win their next 6 games, just to get back on track for 86 points.




EDIT:

For Liverpool, who I am sure you are all most interested in, we know we have two very tough games coming up. If we lose one and draw one, on paper that seems pretty poor. However, if we then won our next 4 games, we would still be 'on track' for 86 points.



This is all hypothetical of course, lets just win every game, and then we don't have to worry about this :D
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 12:43:23 pm by barneystuta »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #69 on: August 22, 2014, 12:59:31 pm »
Thanks Barney, do you have that table showing all 38 games and who the opponents are?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #70 on: August 22, 2014, 01:11:13 pm »
If United were to finish on 86 points, then I projected that they would need 2.8 points against Swansea. It was deemed an "easy"  game, but not the easiest (where you should be taking 3 points).

The odds are based on the odds of winning the league at the start of the season and are not dynamic based on the relative difficulties as the seasons progress :)

Still, it should give a good indication of relative performance.

A good example of how it works is: If United and City were "on track" for 86 points after 8 games, United 'should' be 4 points ahead of City since they have a much easier start.

More info is on the blog post if you want to see a retrospective on last season, things will be a bit clearer then.
Okay, cool, I get it now. Thanks. I like it!

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #71 on: August 22, 2014, 01:33:24 pm »
Thanks Barney, do you have that table showing all 38 games and who the opponents are?

It is all based on this graphic - http://matchstory.co.uk/2014fixtures/ :)

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #72 on: August 22, 2014, 01:43:38 pm »
That doesn't have the opponents either, think your table would be better if it included them.


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #73 on: August 22, 2014, 01:48:40 pm »
That doesn't have the opponents either, think your table would be better if it included them.


If you hover over the matches in that link it shows the oppo.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #74 on: August 25, 2014, 10:00:29 pm »



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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #75 on: August 25, 2014, 10:03:47 pm »
That was quick, Prof! Opportunity for us to get back above that 90 points line next weekend.

Offline I-was-watching-it-on-Sky

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #76 on: August 25, 2014, 10:19:51 pm »
Here's the form band for game week 2.
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Offline Hij

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #77 on: August 26, 2014, 07:39:08 pm »
Looking bad for the Mancs already.
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Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #78 on: August 26, 2014, 07:41:42 pm »
It means Man Utd got to win their next 5 games just to remain at -5 (unless WBA away is also a par 3 for them in which case they got to win their next 7 games which also includes home games against Everton and Chelsea)
« Last Edit: August 26, 2014, 07:43:55 pm by Mr_Shane »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15
« Reply #79 on: August 26, 2014, 07:47:57 pm »
It means Man Utd got to win their next 5 games just to remain at -5 (unless WBA away is also a par 3 for them in which case they got to win their next 7 games which also includes home games against Everton and Chelsea)

It's early days but I think we're down to 5 teams chasing the 4 spots already
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