Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2014-15

[zabadoh]

I have higher expectations for my club than the 60 or so points we seem to be headed for... 

Things should change for the better somewhat in January, hopefully, if we buy someone decent or we get.Sturridge back.

 Getting Sturridge back will be like the pickup the team got we got Xabi back from injury in the New Year those many seasons ago.

Even if we miss out on Europe next season, I can take that as a distraction free launch pad for an assault on the league title for the season after, but I'm an optimist.

 Or I'm delusional. 

[Jack Slater]

cheers for that write up.

That's quite worrying.

Rafa's last season finished on 63 points got him the sack.

Kenny's last season at 58 points got him sacked (despite two cup finals).

Rodgers first season at 61 points resulted in many calling for him to be sacked.

The first 4 occasions on which we failed to reach 24 points from first 16 games (ie 1.5 points per game) were all associated with managerial change.

Souness (92/93) and Hodgson (10/11) were both gone a few weeks later.  The Evans/Houllier (98/99) partnership did not even see out the full 16 games.

Houllier (03/04) lasted until the end of the season.

The only time (so far) that there was no managerial change was Rodgers (12/13). 

Common sense suggests that (part of) the reason Houllier was given a chance to recover from the terrible start (our joint worst ever start up to that point, and only the third time ever, up to that point, of failing to reach 24 points) was that he had a second place on his cv (like Brendan) and several trophies (unlike Brendan).

Also, in Houllier's case, the 22 point start came after a few seasons of better starts.  For Rodgers, this is now 2 seasons out of 3.

So in the first 31 seasons of 3 points, we failed to reach 24 points from 16 games 4 times:  13%.  The next 3 seasons, it has been 67%.

[DanA]

I think at this point 68 points would be a good finish and it might just be enough for fourth following a world cup. Even that feels a stretch, my gut feel is we'll have a resurgence but finish on 61 points.

[Jack Slater]

I think at this point 68 points would be a good finish and it might just be enough for fourth following a world cup. Even that feels a stretch, my gut feel is we'll have a resurgence but finish on 61 points.

68 points from here is 47 points from 22 games.  Approx 2.14 PPG which is equivalent to around 81 or 82 points over a 38 game season.

It's true that achieving a high PPG over part of a season is obviously easier than achieving that same PPG over the full season.

Even so, I'd say our chances of - out of nowhere - suddenly developing the form that would be required to average even 2 PPG are pretty low.

2 PPG from here would, of course, be 44 more points, putting us on 65.  I cannot see that happening.  (2PPG is mid 70s if sustained over full season).

Just to get the 39 more points we need to reach 60, that would be 39/22 = 1.77 PPG, equivalent to a 67 or 68 full season.  By no means impossible mathematically, or based on evidence of form from previous seasons.  However, a massive improvement on the 21/16 = 1.31 PPG so far, and with no green shoots of recovery yet appearing. 

[zabadoh]

Serious question, come Feb, and top 4 looks unlikely, should we prioritise the Europa League over te PL?

If it came to pass, going for the Europa League championship would be a gamble, but the only way for us to get CL football next season. 

And an unlikely gamble at that.  There are better teams in the competition than us in our current form.

[drmick]

If it came to pass, going for the Europa League championship would be a gamble, but the only way for us to get CL football next season. 

And an unlikely gamble at that.  There are better teams in the competition than us in our current form.

Same was true in 2005. It's just between this thread, and the APLT thread, we are pretty much fecked for top 4 this season, barring a sustained improvement in form AND a  sustained drop in form from the other hopefuls.

[Jack Slater]

Worst League Starts - 17 games in 3 point era

22 Points

1998/99 - Evans/Houllier - Houllier
2010/11 - Hodgson
2012/13 - Rodgers
2014/15 - Rodgers

[LFCsupporter]

Worst League Starts - 17 games in 3 point era

22 Points

1998/99 - Evans/Houllier - Houllier
2010/11 - Hodgson
2012/13 - Rodgers
2014/15 - Rodgers

Well thats shite

[Gonebay]

Remaining 21 games we can get 50 points which can give us top 4. Once Sturridge returns, we will score for fun.

[Always_A_Red]

Remaining 21 games we can get 50 points which can give us top 4. Once Sturridge returns, we will score for fun.

At almost 2.4 points per game you are asking for miracles mate. We wont need 71 points this season though. I'd go as far to say that if we got 64 points that would probably be enough, but even that would require 2 points per game. Nobody apart from Chelsea or City are at that level this season. UTD in 3rd are at 1.88 ppg. If they carry on that level they will hit 71 points. If Arsenal & Spurs carry on their current ppg average they will finish on 60pts. You can see how hard its going to be for us. Almost impossible to be honest bar another 12 match winning run like last year.

[flying red]

I don't go with all this 'once Sturridge is back' blind faith. Many of us have said the same about Fowler, Owen and Torres in their day and it never panned out as well as we hoped.

[Gonebay]

At almost 2.4 points per game you are asking for miracles mate. We wont need 71 points this season though. I'd go as far to say that if we got 64 points that would probably be enough, but even that would require 2 points per game. Nobody apart from Chelsea or City are at that level this season. UTD in 3rd are at 1.88 ppg. If they carry on that level they will hit 71 points. If Arsenal & Spurs carry on their current ppg average they will finish on 60pts. You can see how hard its going to be for us. Almost impossible to be honest bar another 12 match winning run like last year.

When you put it 2.4 ppg it really looks tough. Think 65 will be enough?

[killer-heels]

When you put it 2.4 ppg it really looks tough. Think 65 will be enough?

I reckon it will be anywhere between 63-68. Which means we need to win 14 out of the next 22 league games. If City or Chelsea win that many (and lets say draw 4 and lose 3) then they end up on 85 points I believe.  City won the title on 86 last season.

So regardless, to get to between the 63-68 point mark we need almost title winning form from now in. With a side that cannot defend and relying on an injury prone striker to come back, score straight away and remain fit until the end of the season that seems a pretty tough ask.

If this was Utd or Arsenal or anyone else bar us, Chelsea and City we were talking about, we would be laughing at them and thinking they were a bit deluded.

[Always_A_Red]

When you put it 2.4 ppg it really looks tough. Think 65 will be enough?

Maybe, maybe not. The current form of Arsenal, Spurs & us are so inconsistent that we cannot really say for sure. Both Spurs & Arsenal are playing at 1.58ppg and like I said before if they stay at that level they will finish on 60 points so even if we increase our levels to 2 ppg, we'd only finish on 64 points. Any increase in performance from either two of them would require us to produce the type of form that Chelsea have shown since the start of the year. Also we have to bear in mind that if either S'ton or West Ham manage to keep up their form, it'd be curtains anyway.

Personally, I think the top 4 race for us is over. I said before the UTD game that if we lose against them and fail to beat Arsenal then its over. I'm going to stick with that. Not impossible obviously, but highly unlikely now.

[supaerheraw]

Personally, I think the top 4 race for us is over. I said before the UTD game that if we lose against them and fail to beat Arsenal then its over. I'm going to stick with that.

Wait til it ticks and we will go on a run. That's what I believe. The recent performances indicates it. On and upwards in 2015.

[Always_A_Red]

Wait til it ticks and we will go on a run. That's what I believe. The recent performances indicates it. On and upwards in 2015.

Oh I get what you mean mate, I said the same at the ground yesterday and after Bournemouth. The signs are there. When it clicks, we could well go on a long run again, but the problem we have is that by the time we do go on that run, it will probably be too late.

Think back to the season before last, when we signed Sturridge and Coutinho we were 4th in the table in terms of form from that point until the end of the season, but we still finished 7th. 

[supaerheraw]

Oh I get what you mean mate, I said the same at the ground yesterday and after Bournemouth. The signs are there. When it clicks, we could well go on a long run again, but the problem we have is that by the time we do go on that run, it will probably be too late.

Think back to the season before last, when we signed Sturridge and Coutinho we were 4th in the table in terms of form from that point until the end of the season, but we still finished 7th.

I know what you are saying, but I won't give up just yet. I think we've got 3-4 potentially unplayable players in Markovic, Sterling, Sturridge and Coutinho. Some will raise eyebrows at Markovic but seriously, he caused havoc in his first game against City when he came on and is showing his qualities as we speak. We will see how it all pans out, but here is hoping.

[the_red_pill]

This is not a results comparison, but a comparison of a player.

Defensively nothing has changed for us. We've conceded the same amount of goals at this stage as in the previous, but obviously some would have guessed that by now.

We've been pretty hard on Mignolet- in the league- and results have certainly masked this, but at the time Mignolet was dropped- 15 games in, we had allowed 1 goal more than the previous season. Now I know there had been the CL in-between, but this just highlights that defensively, we are as "stable" as last season:


19 Goals Against after 15 games - Current Season:
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html?season=2014-2015&month=DECEMBER&timelineView=date&toDate=1418515199999&tableView=CURRENT_STANDINGS


18 Goals Against after 15 games - Last Season:
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html?season=2013-2014&month=DECEMBER&timelineView=date&toDate=1386633599999&tableView=CURRENT_STANDINGS

[zabadoh]

I don't go with all this 'once Sturridge is back' blind faith. Many of us have said the same about Fowler, Owen and Torres in their day and it never panned out as well as we hoped.

Sometimes a single player really is that important because what they do is so irreplaceable. 

The example I keep going back to is Xabi Alonso.  Combinations of Gerrard, Mascherano, Momo and Lucas, good players all, stepped in when he had one of his long spells of injury, but the team just worked better with Xabi.

BTW, I'm not sure how Sturridge  makes our team better.  You can see the players we've got all making decent runs.  Maybe it's his finishing? 

To paraphrase an old baseball saying about hitting, maybe we'll find out whether:  "Finishing is contagious."

[Halcyon Lissome]

Sometimes a single player really is that important because what they do is so irreplaceable. 

The example I keep going back to is Xabi Alonso.  Combinations of Gerrard, Mascherano, Momo and Lucas, good players all, stepped in when he had one of his long spells of injury, but the team just worked better with Xabi.

No one player, well at least not at Xabi's level, is responsible for that much. People forget that with Xabi we never challenged until that season either. And Xabi had Gerrard and Torres firing ahead of him. Post Xabi, Torres never regains his fitness and Gerrard takes years of surgery and injections to get back into any decent shape. All more important factors.

[zabadoh]

We've sunk below Steady Eddies Arsenal, are headed for Spurs.

Never mind 60 points, we're headed for 56 at the halfway point, even if we win at Burnley this weekend.

It's tightened up at the top again as Chelsea reversed their away loss to Stoke last season into a win this time.

	Projected Points	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Man City	92	+6	+7	0	+7
Chelsea	91	+9	+8	-1	+9
Arsenal	73	-6	+4	+1	+3
Liverpool	70	-14	-24	+3	-27
Spurs	67	-2	+2	-1	+3
Everton	61	-11	-1	+4	-5
Man Utd	60	-4	+1	+3	0
Soton	56	0	+7	+3	+4

[zabadoh]

My internet's turned to shite this last week.  Could somebody do a screencap and post Scoreboard Journalism's graph please:  http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/scoreboardjournalism#!/vizhome/SCOREPremierLeague20142015/Dashboard1

[farawayred]

My internet's turned to shite this last week.  Could somebody do a screencap and post Scoreboard Journalism's graph please:  http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/scoreboardjournalism#!/vizhome/SCOREPremierLeague20142015/Dashboard1

As requested (reduced quality to fit the size limit).

[End Product]

BTW, I'm not sure how Sturridge  makes our team better.  You can see the players we've got all making decent runs.  Maybe it's his finishing? 

We have only had movement for the last three games and the first three of the season. We have played our best football then, Sturridge, if he gets fit offers a better finish than sterling plus he is capable of the sublime, goals against WBA Everton and Sunderland being examples.     

[drmick]

We've sunk below Steady Eddies Arsenal, are headed for Spurs.

Never mind 60 points, we're headed for 56 at the halfway point, even if we win at Burnley this weekend.

It's tightened up at the top again as Chelsea reversed their away loss to Stoke last season into a win this time.

	Projected Points	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Man City	92	+6	+7	0	+7
Chelsea	91	+9	+8	-1	+9
Arsenal	73	-6	+4	+1	+3
Liverpool	70	-14	-24	+3	-27
Spurs	67	-2	+2	-1	+3
Everton	61	-11	-1	+4	-5
Man Utd	60	-4	+1	+3	0
Soton	56	0	+7	+3	+4

True, but projecting 17 games "form" for the rest of the season gives the following points hauls

Arsenal 66
Spurs 65
LFC 56
Man Utd 56
Saints 56
Everton 49

It will be tight, and the points required to attain top 4 will be mid-60's.

[zabadoh]

@drmick:  Going by that, you can throw in West Sam.  If they replicate their first half form of +12 in the second half, they will finish with 63 pts.

Same idea with Swansea, who, with a +8 so far, are on form to finish with 58 points.

But all that's just scrapping for that poisoned chalice of the Europa League places.

[drmick]

Haha, assuming we finish the worst of the 56 points crowd, then we finish 10th!

[zabadoh]

The seesaw continues at the top.

Arsenal and Spurs have both been remarkably consistent, but Merseyside Blue are as disappointing as us.

ManU have just about caught up to where they finished last season.

We face an improved Swansea side next Monday to reach the halfway mark.

	Projected Points	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea	93	+11	+10	-1	+11
Man City	92	+6	+7	-1	+8
Arsenal	73	-6	+4	+2	+2
Spurs	70	+1	+4	-1	+5
Liverpool	70	-14	-26	+1	-27
Man Utd	63	-1	+4	+3	+3
Everton	58	-14	-5	+5	-10
Soton	56	0	+9	+4	+5

[Suareznumber7]

Projected points would be the expected points if results the rest of the way go as they did last year?

[zabadoh]

@suareznumber7: Yes.  But as others have said before, that is unlikely unless our play improves.

[Roger Federer]

Not saying it will happen again, but we've improved quite a bit in the second half of each season under Rodgers. In his first season we got 25 points from the first 19 games but then 36 from the next 19 and last year we started with 36 and improved to 48(!) during 2014. I'm always too optimistic, but I wouldn't say somewhere around 40 is out of reach with Sturridge back (please be fit for the rest of the season!) and a good addition or two now in January. We need something like that to finish fourth anyway.

[supaerheraw]

Not saying it will happen again, but we've improved quite a bit in the second half of each season under Rodgers. In his first season we got 25 points from the first 19 games but then 36 from the next 19 and last year we started with 36 and improved to 48(!) during 2014. I'm always too optimistic, but I wouldn't say somewhere around 40 is out of reach with Sturridge back (please be fit for the rest of the season!) and a good addition or two now in January. We need something like that to finish fourth anyway.

We have to win tonight, and then have to win 14 of the remaining 19 games including trips to Stamford Bridge, Emirates, Goodison, Britannia and St. Mary's. Now, I sound as a negative doomer but I actually relish the challenge.

[Suareznumber7]

We have to win tonight, and then have to win 14 of the remaining 19 games including trips to Stamford Bridge, Emirates, Goodison, Britannia and St. Mary's. Now, I sound as a negative doomer but I actually relish the challenge.

It'll be a lot of fun if we can go on a run and be in the thick of it. 

[Deo]

I think 36 is realistic. That's 10 wins and 6 draws, 3 losses. With 36 we'll finish at 64 which IMO could be about enough to get 4th considering the season, but probably won't.

[elpistolero7]

28 points at halfway. Grim, but hey ho, its been a rough season and things are finally looking up. A win vs Leicster is critical...it was always 9 points or bust from these fixtures after losing that United game and drawing vs Arsenal really.

We need 37 points from the next 19 to have a good chance of 4th, hitting the 40 point mark from the next 19 would be ideal, as we'd be right near the 70 point mark, and I think that will be enough. 2 points per game from here on in at the very least.

[zabadoh]

That was a nice win today.  Hopefully it's the start of our season turning around. 

	Projected Points	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Chelsea	91	+9	+8	0	+8
Man City	90	+4	+4	+1	+3
Arsenal	73	-6	+3	+2	+1
Spurs	70	+1	+2	-3	+5
Liverpool	70	-14	-26	-1	-25
Man Utd	63	-1	+2	+1	+3
Soton	57	+1	+10	+2	+8
Everton	55	-17	-6	+8	-14

[mercury]

That was a nice win today.  Hopefully it's the start of our season turning around. 

Fingers crossed.

[zabadoh]

Spurs have caught Arsenal, and uh, at least we're not Everton.



[table="class: grid"]

	Projected Points	Cumulative Pts Differential	Cumulative Goals For Diff.	Cumulative Goals Against Diff.	Cumulative Goals Diff.
Man City	92	+6	+5	+1	+4
Chelsea	90	+8	+10	+4	+6
Spurs	72	+3	+6	-1	+7
Arsenal	72	-7	+1	+2	-1
Liverpool	68	-16	-29	0	-29
Man Utd	64	0	+2	0	+4
Soton	59	+3	+10	0	+10
Everton	52	-20	-8	+10	-18

[drmick]

Can your graph handle Everton's descent? Looks like they will drop off the bottom!

[xRedmanLFCx]

As requested (reduced quality to fit the size limit).

How could it possibly project Man U will get 28 more points to get to 60 and we will get 48 more to get to 70? This is crazy. Am I reading it wrong?