Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15

[Gerrard#1]

United have definitely played the easier ties. They have also not played Southampton, lost to Swansea, and this seasons Everton does not look like last seasons Everton

Still very lucky to win regardless. We need some of that luck. Spurs were pretty lucky to hold on against Southampton as well, some poor finishing and a good save by Lloris.

[Deo]

Prof, I think you should probably add Southampton to the table.

[ElstonGunn]

The table is looking good we have a small margin for error but really need to find some consistency. I saw on one twitter account a number cruncher a bit like yourself prof who at this moment gives us a 68% chance of coming third (https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/518822189114859521) Would take that now to be honest.

68% chance of coming in the top 4, not of coming 3rd. And just to be clear, his methodology is still using a lot of numbers from last year, which makes us look better. Which is not meant as a criticism--getting too caught up in what happened over 7 games is a bad idea--but just clarification.

[Nessy76]

Prof, I think you should probably add Southampton to the table.

And remove Everton?

[rickardinho1]

Prof, I think you should probably add Southampton to the table.

I agree. At the very least they'll be fighting for top 6 so it would be interesting to see that dynamic take shape.

[zabadoh]

Based on SCoRe's evaluation of Southampton's equivalent match results, I have to disagree with including them just yet. 

Soton's performing largely the same as they did last season, even though they've had some wins against decent sides like Swansea and Spurs.

They are in a race with Untied for projected 7th, that's largely due thanks to the Mancs' dreadful start this year even compared to last season's mediocre results.



p.s. this is the same chart that I've posted in the Results Comparison Thread.

[GregCharrua]

Just wanted to say thanks to the posters here, always enjoy reading this thread and getting a perspective that's more objective than the emotion-fueled first reaction from the ride so far this season!

So thanks! 

[Prof]

Prof, I think you should probably add Southampton to the table.

I'd say it's far too early.  A side can put a run together for seven matches, but it doesn't mean they will sustain it.  A few years ago, it was Newcastle.  Let's look after 12 matches.

[Always_A_Red]

Always followed this thread and really like the idea behind it. After every game I come on here and look at the standings.

I have to say though, I've read the thread 6 times and cant for the life of me work out how the pointing system works! 

If you have a Par 1 and you lose, do you drop any points? Equally, if you draw a par one do you gain points?
If you draw a Par 3 how many points do you drop? If you lose a par 3, how many points do you drop?

How do you gain points?

Cheers in advance! 

[riismeister]

1. If you have a Par 1 and you lose, do you drop any points?
2. Equally, if you draw a par one do you gain points?
3. If you draw a Par 3 how many points do you drop?
4. If you lose a par 3, how many points do you drop?

1. Yes. Losing gives you 0 points, 1 less than 1. Losing a Par 1 means you drop 1 points.
2. No. Drawing gives you 1 point, exactly what is expected from a Par 1. You neither drop or gain any points.
3. Drawing gives you 1 point, 2 less than 3. You drop 2 points.
4. Losing gives you 0 points, 3 less than 3. You drop 3 points.

[Always_A_Red]

1. Yes. Losing gives you 0 points, 1 less than 1. Losing a Par 1 means you drop 1 points.
2. No. Drawing gives you 1 point, exactly what is expected from a Par 1. You neither drop or gain any points.
3. Drawing gives you 1 point, 2 less than 3. You drop 2 points.
4. Losing gives you 0 points, 3 less than 3. You drop 3 points.

Thanks for this. That makes sense.

How do you gain points?

[emitime]

Thanks for this. That makes sense.

How do you gain points?

Winning par 1 games.

[Always_A_Red]

Winning par 1 games.

And you get 3 points for a par 1 game?

[riismeister]

And you get 3 points for a par 1 game?

3 points for a win. 3 points is 2 more than 1. You gain 2 points by winning a Par 1 game.

[TheShanklyGates]

And you get 3 points for a par 1 game?

All possible outcomes on the APLT are here mate:

Win Par 3 match = Par
Draw Par 3 match = -2 points to Par
Lose Par 3 match = -3 points to Par

Win Par 1 match = +2 points to Par
Draw Par 1 match = Par
Lose Par 1 match = -1 point to Par

Playing to Par for the whole season would give you 90 points. Any results that don't match the Par result are calculated using the above.

[Always_A_Red]

All possible outcomes on the APLT are here mate:

Win Par 3 match = Par
Draw Par 3 match = -2 points to Par
Lose Par 3 match = -3 points to Par

Win Par 1 match = +2 points to Par
Draw Par 1 match = Par
Lose Par 1 match = -1 point to Par

Playing to Par for the whole season would give you 90 points. Any results that don't match the Par result are calculated using the above.

Perfect. Thanks mate. Makes sense now! 

[macca007]

So far City and Everton have played to par, whilst Arsenal drop 2 points and Spurs drop 1 point.  But Chelsea have climbed further with another win in a par 1 according to the first page.  It'll be hard to catch them at this rate.  Add to that their next game is away at united with another par 1, which I cant see them losing.

[Prof]

So far City and Everton have played to par, whilst Arsenal drop 2 points and Spurs drop 1 point.  But Chelsea have climbed further with another win in a par 1 according to the first page.  It'll be hard to catch them at this rate.  Add to that their next game is away at united with another par 1, which I cant see them losing.

Yep

It looks like Chelsea will win it.  Only man city have the quality to put a run together to make it interesting.

[ElstonGunn]

I'd say it's far too early.  A side can put a run together for seven matches, but it doesn't mean they will sustain it.  A few years ago, it was Newcastle.  Let's look after 12 matches.

I'm late on this, but it's a bit different with this year's Southampton. Those Newcastles, Swanseas, hell, even last year's Southampton, all were putting up reasonably mediocre shots numbers, and it was clear they would regress to the mean. This year's Southampton are putting up Top 4 shots numbers. IMO, they're clearly ahead of Everton and probably Spurs in the race for Europe at this point. They've just been that good (and the other two haven't).

[Nessy76]

I'm late on this, but it's a bit different with this year's Southampton. Those Newcastles, Swanseas, hell, even last year's Southampton, all were putting up reasonably mediocre shots numbers, and it was clear they would regress to the mean. This year's Southampton are putting up Top 4 shots numbers. IMO, they're clearly ahead of Everton and probably Spurs in the race for Europe at this point. They've just been that good (and the other two haven't).

However, it's typically the second half of the season where such teams fall away as their relatively light squad depth begins to bite. If they are still there in February, it's on.

[Hij]

This should look a bit nicer presuming we can get our act together.

[Hij]

Chelsea +4
Man City -3
Liverpool -5
Spurs -7
Arsenal -9
Man Utd - 10 (still to play)
Everton -11

A Man U draw tomorrow would be swell.

[Mr_Shane]

A Man Utd would be sweller. They won't be able to gain any point since they are at home, only lose points. That said, i am actually quite surprised that despite having so many poor performances we are still 3rd (maybe 4th if southampton is included) when difficulty of fixtures is controlled. Maybe all the other teams who had players at the World cup are also suffering the World cup hangover, but this puts things into perspective

[Iska]

I dislike how stark that makes it that the league's already virtually over, unless you have greater faith in City than I do.  On the other hand, I can now ignore Chelsea all year.

[Mr_Shane]

The difference is glaring, but there are lots of points still to be dropped.

[Hij]

A Man Utd would be sweller. They won't be able to gain any point since they are at home, only lose points. That said, i am actually quite surprised that despite having so many poor performances we are still 3rd (maybe 4th if southampton is included) when difficulty of fixtures is controlled. Maybe all the other teams who had players at the World cup are also suffering the World cup hangover, but this puts things into perspective

Must bear in mind we've played an extra par 1 than Arsenal/Spurs and obviously Man Utd have played none. Their first is next week. Chelsea at home. Any drop of points v West Brom would be great, as we'd be above them in both tables with the chance to push further ahead before they take on Chelsea.

[Iska]

Vagaries of the fixture list are still a factor at this early stage I guess, but two things jump out:

• Chelsea are nearly a point a game ahead of the only other side who've looked remotely in their league; and
• if we were to repeat our whole incredible closing run from end of last year, we'd only touch +3.

[Haresy77]

Must bear in mind we've played an extra par 1 than Arsenal/Spurs and obviously Man Utd have played none. Their first is next week. Chelsea at home. Any drop of points v West Brom would be great, as we'd be above them in both tables with the chance to push further ahead before they take on Chelsea.

Their first par 1 is Man City away which is the fixture after so would be surprised if they're still -10 by that time.

Having said that, slipping back to -7 today would have been hard for us to recover from.

[macca007]

Must bear in mind we've played an extra par 1 than Arsenal/Spurs and obviously Man Utd have played none. Their first is next week. Chelsea at home. Any drop of points v West Brom would be great, as we'd be above them in both tables with the chance to push further ahead before they take on Chelsea.

Also one of Chelseas par 1's was Crystal Palace who is the easiest of the par 1's and everton who have been shit so far so theres still hope.

[macca007]

Next set of games after tomorrow will be interesting as ours is a par 3 against Hull who played well against Arsenal.  United have a par 3 to chelsea which in turn gives them another winnable par 1.  City have a winnable par 1 away against west ham and arsenal and spurs with par 3's with sunderland and newcastle respectively.  Cant see Sunderland being as abysmal as against the saints tho.

[LionheartCFC]

It's intriguing looking at the league in a different context like this. Shows how poor a start Utd have actually had, considering the opposition they've faced . They are improving though,  with getting players back fit and Di Maria and Falcao making an impact. Can't wait to see how their defence will handle our attacking threat next weekend though.

[rscanderlech]

It's intriguing looking at the league in a different context like this. Shows how poor a start Utd have actually had, considering the opposition they've faced . They are improving though,  with getting players back fit and Di Maria and Falcao making an impact. Can't wait to see how their defence will handle our attacking threat next weekend though.

Our attacking threat isn't that magical so far this season. We've scored 13 from 8 in the league. Including a number of own goals. The big difference has been in the quality of our finishing and chances. The transfer of one striker, injury to another and the poor form of the third make all of this quite understandable.

That's not to say that we couldn't cause their defence damage, of course, especially when their defence is as it is.

[Reds Flag]

Our attacking threat isn't that magical so far this season. We've scored 13 from 8 in the league. Including a number of own goals. The big difference has been in the quality of our finishing and chances. The transfer of one striker, injury to another and the poor form of the third make all of this quite understandable.

That's not to say that we couldn't cause their defence damage, of course, especially when their defence is as it is.

I believe when LionheartCFC says 'our attacking threat', he is referring to Chelsea's, which is rather more impressive...

[Hij]

Of course Chelsea at home isn't a par one. It wouldn't be the ATPL if I didn't get some posts wrong lol

[Hij]

Next set of games after tomorrow will be interesting as ours is a par 3 against Hull who played well against Arsenal.  United have a par 3 to chelsea which in turn gives them another winnable par 1.  City have a winnable par 1 away against west ham and arsenal and spurs with par 3's with sunderland and newcastle respectively.  Cant see Sunderland being as abysmal as against the saints tho.

it also shows how you are already pissing the league barring an amazing run from City

[ElstonGunn]

However, it's typically the second half of the season where such teams fall away as their relatively light squad depth begins to bite. If they are still there in February, it's on.

Certainly true. I wouldn't bet on them being in the top 4 by any means. But they don't have much less depth than Everton, who are in Europe, and Spurs have been very bad by most measures so far.

Anyway, I'm not saying Prof has to add them to the graph, but I don't think it would be unreasonable either.

[macca007]

it also shows how you are already pissing the league barring an amazing run from City

Guessin that's meant for the chelsea fan above!

[Nessy76]

Certainly true. I wouldn't bet on them being in the top 4 by any means. But they don't have much less depth than Everton, who are in Europe, and Spurs have been very bad by most measures so far.

Anyway, I'm not saying Prof has to add them to the graph, but I don't think it would be unreasonable either.

Everton are not a great example this season so far!

[Iska]

First thing I did when I saw van Gaal talking about a title challenge was come here for some perspective.

[Hij]

First thing I did when I saw van Gaal talking about a title challenge was come here for some perspective.

And now it'll show some more.

Man U drop 2 more.