He's my, pretty outlandish, take: If Lallana is back for Watford and plays the last 4 games in CM we get Top 4, if he's either not back or he comes in and plays RW like he did in January, we don't.
All this depends on United of course. Logic tells me there's no way they're getting 12 points from City away, Arsenal away, Spurs away and Southampton away, but you never know with those jammy bastards.