Villa are obviously incredible on the counter, and to try and control the game would be suicide. We have to force Villa to control the game and try to counter ourselves, accepting that a draw is not a disaster considering how dangerous they actually are. Their main threat is Benteke with Agbonlahor and Weimann on either side and we have to set up to nullify them.
First and foremost, a 4-2-3-1 rather than a 4-3-3 would in my opinion fit this game because we need two at the base constantly in between Benteke and their central midfield. Looking at how Chelsea played in the first half against Villa, Ramires and Lampard were incredibly disciplined to make sure that any pressure put on Villa's central midfield came from the area in between them and Benteke, constantly forcing them to pass out wide rather than look for the direct pass to Benteke. However, Lampard eventually got complacent and Villa punished them for it (and could have done it more than once), and I'm worried Gerrard will make the same mistake. Lucas being on song will be crucial. That, for me, is how you nullify Benteke combined with a man marking of him that I will get to later.
Their second very dangerous threat is Agbonlahor. He may not seem like all that, but against both Chelsea and Arsenal he had a tendency to come quite deep losing his full back to the receive the ball, turn and run at a static defense causing havoc. To counter this, in my opinion, Johnson has to man mark him whenever Villa are in possession. This will nullify Johnson's attacking threat but first and foremost he's a defender and that has to be the priority. To give Agbonlahor that extra yard to gain pace is suicide, and we may very well get punished even if it only happens once.
As for our three in behind Sturridge (provided we do play 4-2-3-1), they have to be very mobile. If we play with a constant nr 10, like Chelsea did with Oscar during large parts, Delph will nullify him as he did with Oscar. The times Chelsea did in fact control the game and look threatening was when Mata/Oscar/Hazard interchanged freely and our front three will have to do the same, at least two of them. Even if Coutinho, as good as he is, plays as a constant nr 10 I wouldn't put it past Delph to man mark him out of the game, and if we are to play on the counter we can not afford it.
As for marking, our midfield will have to play a very disciplined zonal marking (Lucas/Gerrard in front of their central midfield regardless of other movements, our three behind Sturridge providing pressure on their back line) to force them out wide as that is where we have the best chance of handling them. Our back four, however, will have to man mark. Johnson on Agbonlahor has been mentioned, and Enrique will have to keep a close eye on Weimann constantly. But the real threat is if we let Benteke target Agger, as he probably will try to do. Kolo Toure is our best bet for handling Benteke and he will have to be right next to him during all times, even if Lucas/Gerrard manage to do their job well. This will also free Agger to help Enrique with Weimann as the spaniard is prone to concentration lapses.
This will force Villa to play long, often an early cross from their full backs. I believe Enrique with the help of Agger will be able to handle their right flank very well but Agbonlahor will be able to outpace Johnson during long runs so it will be crucial we have a player there to make sure their left back isn't capable of providing balls for those runs. For me, that player is Henderson. He will be the exception to the interchanging in our three behind Sturridge (two interchanging will be enough so that Delph can't man mark) as he will have to be on our right side to help out Johnson at all times.
If we manage to keep it up for 90 minutes I believe we will be able to nullify Villa completely, albeit sacrificing quite a bit of attacking threat. We have to be clinical to get the three points but even then, like I said, a draw will not be a disaster.
Starting XI for me:
Mignolet
Johnson Toure Agger Enrique
Gerrard Lucas
Henderson Aspas Coutinho
Sturridge
Henderson constant in his right sided role as mentioned, with Aspas/Coutinho/Sturridge moving about as much as possible to at times overload Delph but also sometimes leave him without a man to mark (Aspas moving forward making it a 4-4-2).
I'm not that worried. Villa are a counter attacking side, if we force them to be in charge and sit back I think we can handle them. Coutinho/Sturridge are also very effective on the counter.
It'll be an interesting game, either way.
