Author Topic: General Election on June 8th  (Read 414643 times)

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #200 on: April 18, 2017, 12:05:18 pm »
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tories win some seats in Scotland.

Yep, the Tories will do a bit better in Scotland, Labour even worse than 2015.

Scotland will definitely be one of the more interesting subplots in this election.

It'll also be interesting to see just how badly UKIP does.

I'll be interested to see how some of the pro-Leave MPs fare in some of the more pro-remain parts of London in particular.

There won't be much else positive to take out of the national picture.


Offline Cliff Bastin

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #201 on: April 18, 2017, 12:05:26 pm »
It would take an incredible game from the Lib Dems to even get close. But fuck it, if they fight for the things I believe must be fought for, then I'll add my name, for the first time in my life.
That is one of the reasons she called it. Playing on the Labour weakness because she knows many Labour voters will switch to the Lib Dems. Leading to a massive mandate for the tories.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #202 on: April 18, 2017, 12:06:07 pm »
It's not only about the election, it's about after. How do Labour align themselves now, given by far their best chance is some kind of coalition with one or more anti-Brexit parties? Go back on their word to support Brexit or not? In the realms of fantasy I'd laugh my tits off if a Labour/SNP anti-Brexit coalition came about, led by the SNP leader because Labour europhiles backed them rather than Corbyn.

For Corbyn though the real enemy isn't the far right it's the centre ground. If there is no political pendulumn then the far left will never get in to power. The far left has no chance against a Blair or a Cameron. There only chance is for a far right Tory Government to swing the pendulumn way to the right and to crash and burn. That for me is the only time the far left has a chance of power as a reaction to the far right's failures.

Corbyn isn't interested about a consensus or reaching out to people for me he is looking at the long game and if that involves the destruction of the Labour party then so be it. Without a credible Labour party there is a breeding ground for the far left amongst those who become disenfranchised with an evil far right government.

If that leads to the EU falling apart then even better from his point of view. He has made no attempt to lead the Labour party but is just pandering to his hard core support.
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Offline Libertine

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #203 on: April 18, 2017, 12:06:30 pm »
It would take an incredible game from the Lib Dems to even get close. But fuck it, if they fight for the things I believe must be fought for, then I'll add my name, for the first time in my life.

Don't think anyone thinks the Lib Dems will "win" the election, but they're the only party who will take significant numbers of seats from the Tories. Is Corbyn going to win back any marginals? As if. The only question is how much lower Labour can go.

At some point, you just stand up for your principles and cast your vote for what you believe in.

Offline Ray K

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #204 on: April 18, 2017, 12:07:27 pm »
Pound at it's highest level for 2 months.  It took a second spike when Labour announced they'd welcome an election

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #205 on: April 18, 2017, 12:08:33 pm »
That is one of the reasons she called it. Playing on the Labour weakness because she knows many Labour voters will switch to the Lib Dems. Leading to a massive mandate for the tories.
Don't think anyone thinks the Lib Dems will "win" the election, but they're the only party who will take significant numbers of seats from the Tories. Is Corbyn going to win back any marginals? As if. The only question is how much lower Labour can go.

At some point, you just stand up for your principles and cast your vote for what you believe in.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #206 on: April 18, 2017, 12:09:12 pm »
The Tories will be campaigning on a hard Brexit, the Lib Dems on soft Brexit/remain, the SNP on independence. What do Labour campaign on? The NHS? It's going to be a very odd election with every party focusing on Brexit except Labour who, I assume, will be desperately trying to shift the goalposts and talk about anything else. I wonder if Labour even have a draft manifesto ready. Six weeks is no time to create a coherent narrative, even for a competent leadership, which...well...

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #207 on: April 18, 2017, 12:09:40 pm »
Yep, the Tories will do a bit better in Scotland, Labour even worse than 2015.

Scotland will definitely be one of the more interesting subplots in this election.

It'll also be interesting to see just how badly UKIP does.

I'll be interested to see how some of the pro-Leave MPs fare in some of the more pro-remain parts of London in particular.

There won't be much else positive to take out of the national picture.

I said earlier that the Tories will likely gain a few seats but thinking about it a bit more, the areas in Scotland that are more conservative (Borders, Aberdeenshire, parts of Edinburgh) are all very anti-brexit, so it could work against the Tories.

the more interesting side of the Scottish results will be the percentage of the vote the SNP get, rather than the number of seats.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #208 on: April 18, 2017, 12:09:50 pm »
We should get Trada to get Jeremy to sign up to RAWk and get him to post in the Labour thread. It's not too late to help him fine-tune his media training.
His username would be interesting, I can think of a few but dont want to derail the thread. :)
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #209 on: April 18, 2017, 12:10:51 pm »
Pound at it's highest level for 2 months.  It took a second spike when Labour announced they'd welcome an election



As with everything, it will soon go back to the previous highs.

As for the election, well it's going to be a landslide. Smart decision by her of course. Labour with Corbyn at the top has nothing to stand against them.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #210 on: April 18, 2017, 12:11:16 pm »
She's picked the perfect time to do this, Corbyn at his lowest levels, a Lib Dem who will be portrayed as wanting to go against the people and anyone else seen as a political irrelevance.  If they don't get more than 400 MPs I'll be surprised.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #211 on: April 18, 2017, 12:13:02 pm »
My dad is a floating voter, probably considers himself to be in the centre, but was strongly pro-Brexit and I have no doubt he'll be voting for the Tories on the terms May is calling for the election. I think he's probably quite representative of a lot of people so I really do think this could be nasty. There is going to be a lot of people who will have been shocked out of their voting habits by Brexit, people who maybe voted Labour because that's what they always voted for.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #212 on: April 18, 2017, 12:14:07 pm »
She's picked the perfect time to do this, Corbyn at his lowest levels, a Lib Dem who will be portrayed as wanting to go against the people and anyone else seen as a political irrelevance.  If they don't get more than 400 MPs I'll be surprised.

A split of the Labour party into a new party could be a possibility before the election.  I cant see all those against the clown will sit on their hands and let another election to go to waste.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #213 on: April 18, 2017, 12:15:03 pm »
Might have to go back to voting Lib Dem

I'm pondering this

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #214 on: April 18, 2017, 12:15:07 pm »
A split of the Labour party into a new party could be a possibility before the election.

6 weeks isn't long enough to organise fuck all, especially this incarnation of the Labour party. They'd be stupid to do it. If Corbyn stays after the inevitable massacre, then it will happen.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #215 on: April 18, 2017, 12:15:21 pm »
The Tories will be campaigning on a hard Brexit, the Lib Dems on soft Brexit/remain, the SNP on independence. What do Labour campaign on? The NHS? It's going to be a very odd election with every party focusing on Brexit except Labour who, I assume, will be desperately trying to shift the goalposts and talk about anything else. I wonder if Labour even have a draft manifesto ready. Six weeks is no time to create a coherent narrative, even for a competent leadership, which...well...

Based on the 'policy blitz' it will free school meals, Ł10 for carers and other populist but essentially pointless initiatives. They are pro-Brexit and their keystone economic policy is the kind of vote-losing 'tax-and-spend' policy that has seen Labour trashed in the polls time after time. What a fucking shit-show.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #216 on: April 18, 2017, 12:15:37 pm »
She's picked the perfect time to do this, Corbyn at his lowest levels, a Lib Dem who will be portrayed as wanting to go against the people and anyone else seen as a political irrelevance.  If they don't get more than 400 MPs I'll be surprised.
400 mps! Holy shit.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #217 on: April 18, 2017, 12:16:53 pm »
6 weeks isn't long enough to organise fuck all, especially this incarnation of the Labour party. They'd be stupid to do it. If Corbyn stays after the inevitable massacre, then it will happen.
If Corbyn stays on after this election then people need to get onto the streets to protest! It would be verging on a dictatorship within the Labour party at that point.

Offline Libertine

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #218 on: April 18, 2017, 12:18:14 pm »
If Corbyn stays on after this election then people need to get onto the streets to protest! It would be verging on a dictatorship within the Labour party at that point.

Or maybe you know, just use your democratic freedom and stop supporting them.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #219 on: April 18, 2017, 12:18:19 pm »
wouldn't it be sensible for the Liberals to go single issue Remain on this?
Won't the Brexit means Brexit vote be split three ways between UKIP, the tories and Labour?

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #220 on: April 18, 2017, 12:19:12 pm »
wouldn't it be sensible for the Liberals to go single issue Remain on this?
Won't the Brexit means Brexit vote be split three ways between UKIP, the tories and Labour?


Yeah, good chance for Lib Dems to become the opposition but we'll see what happens in the next few weeks. The media wont give 'em the time of day either way.

Offline Libertine

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #221 on: April 18, 2017, 12:21:04 pm »
Exclusive: Conservative poll showed party would "lose seats" to the Liberal Democrats

Election strategist Lynton Crosby warned the party would lose MPs to the Lib Dems in an early election, sources say.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/04/exclusive-conservative-poll-showed-party-would-lose-seats-liberal-democrats

Crosby hired again for the Tories apparently.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #222 on: April 18, 2017, 12:22:26 pm »
One party state eh?
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #223 on: April 18, 2017, 12:23:01 pm »
The Lib Dems will obviously get more votes this time but I wonder whether they will be concentrated enough to win seats. I reckon they will probably come second or third in a lot more than before but probably struggle to make gains. They'd be smart to focus a lot of their attention on cities like London and Bristol.

Offline Ray K

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #224 on: April 18, 2017, 12:23:24 pm »
wouldn't it be sensible for the Liberals to go single issue Remain on this?
Won't the Brexit means Brexit vote be split three ways between UKIP, the tories and Labour?


They'd be crazy not to.  I think that's the way Farron will go too. It's essentially a Brexit-based election, so its  not like they'd be accused of hijacking the agenda.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #225 on: April 18, 2017, 12:27:16 pm »
wouldn't it be sensible for the Liberals to go single issue Remain on this?
Won't the Brexit means Brexit vote be split three ways between UKIP, the tories and Labour?
It is their number 1 argument by a long way. vote Lib Dems if you dont want a hard Brexit. they will take Tory+Labour votes,I don't think they have much chance of wining I just hope they take enough seats to form a coalition with a new Labour leader who will demand the country has a say on Brexit in 18 months.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #226 on: April 18, 2017, 12:32:02 pm »
Yeah they will likely pick up another seat or 2 in Borders and Aberdeenshire. Labour will likely lose their only seat, Lib Dems only seat could go either way.

Other than that I'm pretty sure it will be all SNP.

Seems odd to think they would make gains when Scotland as a whole opposed brexit and as a country they have been told to know their place and not step out of line over a 2nd referendum by May.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #227 on: April 18, 2017, 12:34:52 pm »
Can't see any swing in liverpool. Especially with the Mayoral election next month. It just wont happen. But the leave vote hit the Knowsleys and Seftons. I'd say Ali Mcgovern has a fight on her hands on the Wirral.

Tories have played this right. Labour are in no position to be an opposition party. Lib dems are insignificant and their anti brexit rhetoric can be swatted down with the ref mandate. UKIP got what they wanted in the referendum so who cares about them.  The Scots and the NI are the only obstacle and if Labour go into Scotland with an anti Independence agenda then the SNP will carry on fighting the 'good fight' to nothing. This will be a large Tory majority in the commons making their Hard Brexit stance a mandate.

But share this far and wide. Get yourself registered

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #228 on: April 18, 2017, 12:35:26 pm »
May has clearly used the announcement of Redknapps appointment to try and sneak this under the radar quietly and catch Labour sleeping!
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #229 on: April 18, 2017, 12:36:10 pm »
Tory landslide, decimated Labour, Lib Dem gains and possibly UKIP gains.

This will change nothing, just gives May no quarter in Brexit negotiations.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 12:38:08 pm by thelinnen »
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #230 on: April 18, 2017, 12:36:20 pm »
I wonder if Jeremy has any holiday booked during this campaign?  For any die hards still backing Labour, you better hope he has.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #231 on: April 18, 2017, 12:37:05 pm »
Tory landslide, decimated Lbour, Lib Dem gains and possibly UKIP gains.

This will change nothing, just gives May no quarter in Brexit negotiations.

Can't see any UKIP gains. UKIP voters are going to Theresa May's Tories in their droves.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #232 on: April 18, 2017, 12:37:56 pm »
Can't see any UKIP gains. UKIP voters are going to Theresa May's Tories in their droves.
They will be split but May has probably done enough to get a lot of them on board.

I will be voting Lib Dem but only because Colchester was Lib Dem before the last general election. Hopefully enough tory hating students hang around to turn over the votes of the locals.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 12:39:47 pm by thelinnen »
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #233 on: April 18, 2017, 12:38:14 pm »
The country is absolutely fucked. The damage that the Tories will do with a massive majority doesn't even bear thinking about. Fuck.

Literally the only the positive to this will be Corbyn's resignation on the 9th of June.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #234 on: April 18, 2017, 12:40:27 pm »
The options for those in England seem simple.

A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit.

A vote for Conservative is a vote for Brexit.

A vote for Lib Dems is a vote against Brexit.


Anyone in England not voting for Lib Dems is voting to drive our country off a cliff and is betraying our future generations.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #235 on: April 18, 2017, 12:41:49 pm »
As most have said Labour will be decimated. Traditional labour voters having vote apathy over Corbyn, Lib Dems taking back the loss to UKIP and Tories gaining UKIP voters.

Anything positive? UKIP perhaps disappearing off the political map forever, LIB Dems keeping the popular 2 in check and Labour being forced to re think it's Leader and strategy.

Has a feeling of how wonderful life was for us working classes back in the 80's. Oh joy.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #236 on: April 18, 2017, 12:42:08 pm »
May is getting the broom out of the closet and sweeping away the trash. In terms of risks it has enormous potential to backfire, yet the equal potential to remove several problems:

- Jeremy Corbyn. Quite how he was re-elected as Labour leader is beyond my comprehension, but if there is a hammering of the Labour vote then it will just cause further instability within the party. Voters will see them as being unelectable, meaning the likelihood of winning the next election, let alone this one, becomes even greater for the Tories.
- Nicola Sturgeon. The timing of this is exceptionally interesting, as Sturgeon is getting serious noise north of the border from voters who are sick of hearing about referendums when they are failing the Scottish people on basic policy such as schools and the NHS. This provides an early opportunity to test the Scottish electorate and further reduce the SNP influence in Westminster. I fully expect a large number of the SNP MP's to lose their seats to a combination of the Tories and a much stronger Lib Dems who will recover from their disastrous coalition and the legacy of Nick Clegg.
- UKIP. Now that they have their wish they will be wiped out of existence.

However, it is high stakes poker of the most enormous variety; I don't for a second believe the polls, so she may end up with egg on her face, a bit like when Cameron called the referendum thinking there was no chance a leave vote would win. While the polls suggest an increased majority, I think it'll be a bit more interesting. I'll make an early call on it - I reckon we're in for another hung parliament. Tim Farron, now is your time to shine.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #237 on: April 18, 2017, 12:42:15 pm »
Literally the only the positive to this will be Corbyn's resignation on the 9th of June.

Everyone here needs to be prepared for this not to happen. I expect he will call a leadership election instead and get himself re-elected. Will of the membership, etc.
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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #238 on: April 18, 2017, 12:44:02 pm »
- UKIP. Now that they have their wish they will be wiped out of existence.

They are already wiped out.

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Re: General Election on June 8th
« Reply #239 on: April 18, 2017, 12:44:03 pm »
Hypothetically, what's the most likely route to the Conservatives losing their majority? Firstly, the Lib Dems would have to do well at the expense of the Tories, winning back their 2015 losses and perhaps even taking some ambitious target seats. The South West, London and a few other urban areas would have to turn from blue to yellow in big numbers. Secondly, Labour has to simply hold most of their current seats. This seems unlikely looking at the polls, but most Labour seats are historically safe, if history can be much of a guide anymore. Thirdly the Tories can't pick up new seats from other parties. This seems unlikely in Scotland, and UKIP don't have any seats to lose. The picture in Wales is less clear but it's hardly natural Tory territory.

So perhaps it all comes down to the Lib Dems having a good attack strategy and Labour somehow pulling off an unlikely defence. Plausible?