Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[ShakaHislop]

A Dutch newspaper claims to have seen a draft EU report that says the dispute over Britain's "divorce" bill could be taken to the International Court of Justice. It also suggested that David Cameron's demands with regards to the EU budget between 2014-2020 is partly responsible for the divorce bill being so big.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-divorce-bill-eu-take-uk-court-leaked-strategy-documents-a7641406.html

[oldfordie]

My expectation is for them to blame the EU for walking away. They'll head to the table with impossible demands and then accuse the EU of intransigence. I'm really not hopeful at all. There are absolutely no good signs coming out of anything the government is saying. It's so bad Major is out shouting about it.

I want to be wrong but the Tory party is being led on this by the likes of IDS, Fuckwitted Pob lookalike Fuckwitted Pob lookalike Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Rees-Mogg. Garbage in, garbage out.

Yep. we gave them a chance to make a deal but they wouldn't budge on the rules we voted to do away with. making a deal with the EU was a bonus. lets look forward to a bright new future blah blah blah.
Realty is the leave MPs told voters the EU would have no other choice but to give us a good deal.

[Giono]

I actually think it will be the other way round, banking will take a hit as we are a huge net exporter so the EU has little to gain from giving us a good deal, while the automotive industry will be ok as we import so many cars from the EU it will be in their interests to give us a good deal there. Plus, free trade deals quite often exclude services such as banking and generals focus on physical goods.

Agree. Banking will take a hit.

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

Banking will shift jobs.
So the hit will be employment.
Where banking may get hurt is a bit further down the line.
Negative equity for homeowners combined with unemployment.

Cars will be an interesting one.
Think the likes of nissan and jaguar may shift some of their operations.

The other fly in the ointment is what the usa do.
If they tax imports and force companies to set up shop int he usa that means job losses too.
We sell more to them than them to us.
The big pharmas etc.
The government can try to stave it off with corp tax but they still are in deficit which will come back to haunt them.

[SP]

Banking will shift jobs.
So the hit will be employment.
Where banking may get hurt is a bit further down the line.
Negative equity for homeowners combined with unemployment.

Cars will be an interesting one.
Think the likes of nissan and jaguar may shift some of their operations.

The other fly in the ointment is what the usa do.
If they tax imports and force companies to set up shop int he usa that means job losses too.
We sell more to them than them to us.
The big pharmas etc.
The government can try to stave it off with corp tax but they still are in deficit which will come back to haunt them.

The big hit from the banking sector would be that nearly 1 in 8 pounds that the government takes in tax comes from the banking sector. The jobs are less critical than the money.

[Giono]

The big hit from the banking sector would be that nearly 1 in 8 pounds that the government takes in tax comes from the banking sector. The jobs are less critical than the money.

But the jobs are tax revenue that is lost.

[Dowling10]

I still have this faint, ever so slight hope that Brexit won't happen, and we'll still remain in the EU.

Is this naïve and stupid?

[TheShanklyGates]

I still have this faint, ever so slight hope that Brexit won't happen, and we'll still remain in the EU.

Is this naïve and stupid?

I don't see any way back now. The lunatics have taken over the asylum and we all have to suffer the consequences.

[oldfordie]

I still have this faint, ever so slight hope that Brexit won't happen, and we'll still remain in the EU.

Is this naïve and stupid?

Your like most of us m8, hoping common sense prevails when the evidence proves Brexit is a big mistake.
My concern is even when Brexit does start to go wrong people fall for the leave MPs etc excuses, no matter how bad it gets they will argue we have to give this at least 7 yrs before we feel the benefits of leaving the EU.
I remember Owen Smith arguing last August that if evidence shows us Brexit will be a disaster we should stand back and reconsider. he was booed by Corbyn supporters. Corbyn didn't agree with Smith. the people have voted to leave and we should respect their wishes he said.
People will look back at this in years to come and wonder how people could have been so stupid to support Corbyns view.
If we are going to stop Brexit then it's vital to get another leader who will actually fight to change the mindset of the country. we should not fall for any excuses.if the evidence shows Brexit will be a disaster then we should stand back and reconsider.

[ShakaHislop]

[killer-heels]

Keir Starmer has said the deal we get back should include exactly the same benefits of being part of the single market but the ability to set our own immigration rules. He is such a muppet.

[Red-Soldier]

Keir Starmer has said the deal we get back should include exactly the same benefits of being part of the single market but the ability to set our own immigration rules. He is such a muppet.

Just read that in the Guardian, the mind boggles!!!!

Also, we have had immigration controls, it's just our government has chosen not to implement them.

The current bunch of MPs are totally spineless.

[rafathegaffa83]

A bit fucking late for Labour to decide to become the opposition. I am sure most of these MPs wouldn't expect to retain access to the same services at their private member clubs, if they opted to no longer renew their membership. And yet they think the EU is different

[jepovic]

Keir Starmer has said the deal we get back should include exactly the same benefits of being part of the single market but the ability to set our own immigration rules. He is such a muppet.

Reality will soon hit, but not yet.
These are times when smart politicans shut up and wait.

[killer-heels]

Starmer, Frottage, David Davis and Alex Salmond on a Brexit Question Time special tomorrow. Should be lively.

[Red-Soldier]

Opinion polls on Brexit aren't worth anything anyway, due to the ignorance of the populous.

52% of the country voted to leave, citing a load of b*ll*cks and racism. 

I'd say the majority of the UK population are somewhat ignorant in regards to the EU, thus there opinion is not very meaningful.

[redbyrdz]

How can the result of a vote that has yet to be implemented be said to be "in hindsight"?

I suppose because the vote has been passed already?




Great poll to show why a simple majority shouldn't be enough for a decision of this magnitude.

[Red-Soldier]

I suppose because the vote has been passed already?




Great poll to show why a simple majority shouldn't be enough for a decision of this magnitude.

It was sheer incompetence that a simple majority vote was passed by Parliament.

I know the UK is known to be a bit behind with things, but something as big as this really should have been done properly.

Firstly, the question itself was flawed.

Other countries who have referenda impose at least a 60% majority, or more.  At least you could call it a 'majority' then.

[redbyrdz]

Other countries who have referenda impose at least a 60% majority, or more.  At least you could call it a 'majority' then.

And 1.8% either way wouldn't change it being a majority.

From the poll above, you could think that the 'don't know' crowd decided on a whim to take the country out of the EU.

[Red-Soldier]

And 1.8% either way wouldn't change it being a majority.

From the poll above, you could think that the 'don't know' crowd decided on a whim to take the country out of the EU.

My mum fits in that group.

I told her why she should vote remain and the reasons why I was doing so, but she voted leave.

I think she was swayed by all the crap that her friends were posting on social media.

[Red-Soldier]

And 1.8% either way wouldn't change it being a majority.

From the poll above, you could think that the 'don't know' crowd decided on a whim to take the country out of the EU.

If the results of a paper I was writing were 52 - 48, I couldn't draw any strong conclusions from it.

[redbyrdz]

If the results of a paper I was writing were 52 - 48, I couldn't draw any strong conclusions from it.

Or you'd spend quite a bit of time with statistics tests and trying to explain why it was significant.



As you said, the whole referendum approach was mindboggling incompetent. No definition of what 'leave' means - leave the EU, but what about the EEA, the customs union, the ECHR? A public 'debate' dominated by lies and emotion. And no discussion about the decision-making process - what percentage, who can vote, will parliament get a say?

But hey, 'the people have spoken', lets get it over and done with.

[Danny Boys Dad]

Keir Starmer has said the deal we get back should include exactly the same benefits of being part of the single market but the ability to set our own immigration rules. He is such a muppet.

It's stupid really, the time to set those tests would be on whether or not to trigger A50, not once we've already done it. All that will happen is that May and her Brexit Buffoons won't meet the tests Labour are setting, the deal might not be approved and we run the risk of crashing out on terms that are even worse.

The Brexit nutters will vote with Labour to defeat any deal that contains any hint of a relationship with the EU.

Trump had the same problem with his healthcare 'reform' - not good enough for anyone with a sense of decency, not demented enough for the hardcore republicans.

[Red Raw]

Apologies if this has been posted before (its from last week) but Henry VIII clauses are in the news again today, and I think this addresses precisely the question posed in the (current) thread title.

Brexit: why the Great Repeal Bill will be the Great Whitehall Power Grab

https://www.ft.com/content/7dbf749d-f9b4-38b5-b6ed-0d7463698a2d
(If paywalled, Google search 'Great Repeal Bill will be the Great Whitehall Power Grab' and follow the link.)
David Allen Green

Fascinating from a historical perspective, but terrifying and seemingly inevitable from our own.

The article quotes former lord chief justice, Lord Judge

“Unless strictly incidental to primary legislation, every Henry VIII clause, every vague skeleton bill, is a blow to the sovereignty of Parliament. And each one is a self-inflicted blow, each one boosting the power of the executive. Is that what we want? Is that how our constitutional arrangements must continue to develop? Should we allow the powers of the executive to increase and the sovereignty of Parliament to be diminished?.."

[killer-heels]

People have rightly taken the piss out of the brazen nature of the chief and enthusiastic brexiteers about their confidence of a deal and trading on WTO terms. But really the remainer MP's deserve almost as much ridicule.

You have Starmer setting out a position shared by the likes of Ummana, Kendall and those MP's who signed that letter pretty much stating that we should be members of the single market but be able to control immigration and scrap freedom of movement. As if that is ever going to happen?

Then you have the situation regarding voting on the deal and sending the government back to the negotiating table. They do realise that it needs to be agreed by all 27 member states and what is the chance that they will extend that negotiation period? In fact there is no chance of that and the idea that the EU will yield just because the all mighty House of Commons didn't give the green light to Theresa May is laughable.

Then you have this mad position that has been mentioned by Corbyn, Abbott and Thornberry about us losing 'access' to the single market if we don't keep freedom of movement. They are always mentioning access and I wonder if thats a deliberate plan to try to hoodwink the public or if they have actually got their understanding of access and membership wrong.

Basically, nobody on either side of the divide that reside in parliament knows anything. They are all as clueless, delusional and head-in-sand as each other.

[oldfordie]

People have rightly taken the piss out of the brazen nature of the chief and enthusiastic brexiteers about their confidence of a deal and trading on WTO terms. But really the remainer MP's deserve almost as much ridicule.

You have Starmer setting out a position shared by the likes of Ummana, Kendall and those MP's who signed that letter pretty much stating that we should be members of the single market but be able to control immigration and scrap freedom of movement. As if that is ever going to happen?

Then you have the situation regarding voting on the deal and sending the government back to the negotiating table. They do realise that it needs to be agreed by all 27 member states and what is the chance that they will extend that negotiation period? In fact there is no chance of that and the idea that the EU will yield just because the all mighty House of Commons didn't give the green light to Theresa May is laughable.

Then you have this mad position that has been mentioned by Corbyn, Abbott and Thornberry about us losing 'access' to the single market if we don't keep freedom of movement. They are always mentioning access and I wonder if thats a deliberate plan to try to hoodwink the public or if they have actually got their understanding of access and membership wrong.

Basically, nobody on either side of the divide that reside in parliament knows anything. They are all as clueless, delusional and head-in-sand as each other.

Yeah, Labours only argument should be the same as the Torys. they want to carry out the wishes of the people. the Torys say it's a hard Brexit. labour should force them to prove it as it's a lie. the wishes of the people is an impossible Brexit Tory ministers promised them. in the single market with control of freedom of movement etc.
If Labour are going to argue over FOM etc, then embarrass May for not using her powers when HS to gain more controls over FOM and how they never bothered claiming millions of pounds in medical costs from other EU countrys for treating their citizens.

[ShakaHislop]

53% of the public think the UK's economic prospects over the next 10 years have gotten worse as a result of the vote for Brexit. The difference between those who think it has gotten worse, and those who think it has gotten better has increased to 24.1% in March 2017, from 3.5% in July 2016.

Every region of the UK polled is overall pessimistic, as is every age group. The lowest paid (under £15,000 per year) are the most pessimistic income group.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c36c1ddf4ece4b8a858d741f1df5174d

[zero zero]

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c36c1ddf4ece4b8a858d741f1df5174d

Thanks, Shaka

As a result of the EU Referendum vote to leave the EU, do you think the UK's economic prospects over the next 10 years have got better, got worse, or have stayed the same?

Better
Jul-16 38.8%
Mar-17 28.9%

And Labour backs a Tory hard Brexit.

[Kashinoda]

Thanks, Shaka

As a result of the EU Referendum vote to leave the EU, do you think the UK's economic prospects over the next 10 years have got better, got worse, or have stayed the same?

Better
Jul-16 38.8%
Mar-17 28.9%

And Labour backs a Tory hard Brexit.

But if you anecdotally use the last two polls on this thread we still have 44% who thinks Brexit is a good idea despite only 28% of people thinking we'd be better off without the EU.

Sovereignty trumps being able to put food on the table apparently, and Labour are happy to oblige for votes.

Do some people think this is a fucking game or what lol?

[Red-Soldier]

But if you anecdotally use the last two polls on this thread we still have 44% who thinks Brexit is a good idea despite only 28% of people thinking we'd be better off without the EU.

Sovereignty trumps being able to put food on the table apparently, and Labour are happy to oblige for votes.

Do some people think this is a fucking game or what lol?

The answer to that is yes.  Many people haven't got the brain power to quantify the impacts of leaving the EU, and quite frankly, they probably aren't very interested.

I'm sure they are more interested in the goings on of Corrie, Eastenders and Emmerdale 

[zero zero]

Sovereignty trumps being able to put food on the table apparently, and Labour are happy to oblige for votes.

Do some people think this is a fucking game or what lol?

It might also be the difference between a binary choice - Do you want Brexit Y/N? - and having to actually think a little deeper on the subject? They might be less buoyant about our economic prospects, but they'd still default to their original Brexit stance if asked.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

It might also be the difference between a binary choice - Do you want Brexit Y/N? - and having to actually think a little deeper on the subject? They might be less buoyant about our economic prospects, but they'd still default to their original Brexit stance if asked.

I've been reading a few things of late talking about the most deprived being the most mislead leading to their votes.

I'm not sure about that, but I'm doing OK myself from a not very advantaged start. It's OK for me to be 'OK' but a lot of people will never have the money to buy a house. Many will be on part-time/shit/zero-hours jobs for life. Many are being left behind.

What right have 'we' got to judge them. Obviously Brexit was stupid and will fuck everyone but the very rich. But they were losing anyway. What did they have to lose?

[zebenzui]

What right have 'we' got to judge them. Obviously Brexit was stupid and will fuck everyone but the very rich. But they were losing anyway. What did they have to lose?

I'm on the same boat as them. Low-income, no prospect of a future worth living, no chance of owning my own home.

I didn't choose pig-headed nationalism, I didn't choose knee-jerk scapegoating. I'll yield them no understanding, they gave in to the lies to the cost of everyone.

What did they have to lose? They are soon to find out. As will I.

[SP]

I've been reading a few things of late talking about the most deprived being the most mislead leading to their votes.

I'm not sure about that, but I'm doing OK myself from a not very advantaged start. It's OK for me to be 'OK' but a lot of people will never have the money to buy a house. Many will be on part-time/shit/zero-hours jobs for life. Many are being left behind.

What right have 'we' got to judge them. Obviously Brexit was stupid and will fuck everyone but the very rich. But they were losing anyway. What did they have to lose?

The NHS, the social security safety net such as it is, workers rights, paid maternity, holidays. Things may be shit in austerity Britain, but they could get a lot shitter. The hard Brexit mob have barely started.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

The NHS, the social security safety net such as it is, workers rights, paid maternity, holidays. Things may be shit in austerity Britain, but they could get a lot shitter. The hard Brexit mob have barely started.

I know that. But can we really blame those that voted Brexit in desperation to get anything..

[Andy @ Allerton!]

I'm on the same boat as them. Low-income, no prospect of a future worth living, no chance of owning my own home.

I didn't choose pig-headed nationalism, I didn't choose knee-jerk scapegoating. I'll yield them no understanding, they gave in to the lies to the cost of everyone.

What did they have to lose? They are soon to find out. As will I.

Fair play to you mate. I've been poor, so I know how shite that is.

[killer-heels]

I know that. But can we really blame those that voted Brexit in desperation to get anything..

There is plenty of rich people to blame if you want.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

There is plenty of rich people to blame if you want.

They have transferred their holdings abroad so will make a fortune off a Sterling crash

[killer-heels]

They have transferred their holdings abroad so will make a fortune off a Sterling crash

Ah, forgot about that. Thanks for the tip

[zero zero]

What right have 'we' got to judge them. Obviously Brexit was stupid and will fuck everyone but the very rich. But they were losing anyway.

I have every right to judge stupid people, doing stupid things for stupid reasons when they will affect me, my family and everyone else in the country.

What did they have to lose?

They are about to find out.