Please excuse this ramble. I have posted along these lines today a couple of times but you won't have seen them because as I was writing both threads were locked. So instead of trying to argue in threads that are already going downhill (or just started horribly) I have decided to start my own. I am sure there will be plenty of people out there lining up to say that this is bollocks, just as there were as the transfer window closed last year and I posted about the impact of our lack of transfer activity being overblown and that without any signings we were still favourites for top 3 or 4 and in with an outside chance of the title (I throw that in as a reminder that occasionally those who shout loudest are wrong).
I considered putting this in the transfer forum but it concerns the current squad and the decision is that it shouldn't be talked about in the transfer forum.
Firstly, I want to talk about what went right and what went wrong in the summer, mainly to say that for all the criticism of the transfer committee that we did actually make more positive decisions than negative ones in the summer transfer market. I still believe that of those we signed Lallana, Can, Markovic, Moreno, Manquillo and possibly (despite an awful season so far) Lovren can have a successful long term future at the club. Even excluding Lovren who I believe is the most controversial choice in there, you're still talking about over half of our transfer activity in both numbers of transfers and money spent.
What went wrong was that we forgot that we had one of the most fluid teams in the league last season, and in key positions we allowed ourselves to become too static. By signing Can to play alongside Gerrard and Lucas we left ourselves with 3 relatively static options in the midfield. By signing Balotelli and Lambert as our only striking purchases we did the same at the very top end of the field, while Borini's decision to stay left us with a striking option who is mobile but doesn't look to have the required quality to make it here.
Although we have struggled all season long, I think you can actually see the problem most clearly when you analyse the recent games where a recovery has seemed on the cards for much of the time. Firstly, you look at where in that run the performances have been poor and you would look at Burnley and Leicester and note that we were poor in midfield and that (excellent footballers that they are in their own right) both Lucas and Gerrard started the game. It is difficult to dominate a midfield when 2 of your midfield 3 lack mobility to that degree.
Then, you look at those games where we have performed better with varying results: Mancs away, Arsenal and Swansea at home. Well what stands out is that for the most part we played with a more mobile midfield (Arsenal being the exception) and that as with all these games Raheem Sterling has led the line. His increased mobility with the likes of Lallana and Coutinho floating around him has definitely helped our attacking play as a team look more like last year, however in those 5 league games that he has started up front he himself has only notched a single goal against Burnley. This remains preferable to earlier in the season since we at least look like scoring, but isn't likely to give us the level of goals we need with a defence that leaks goals at the rate we do.
There is a lot of argument about how far away this team are from being a top 4 side, but the answer for me personally is not far at all, in fact, I don't think we're all that far away from being a title challenging side. We've shown the world last season that defensive stability isn't vital if you can score enough goals, and to be honest I don't think the individuals in our defence are as bad as they are made out to be - but that at least in part our other issues contribute to our poor defensive record. Firstly, the lack of mobility in midfield not only allows us less of the ball, it exposes our defence to players running at them with the ball and it is far too easy for players to find pockets of space behind our midfield from which to work. Secondly, when the team isn't scoring freely it adds a pressure to the defence, because they know a single goal will ruin the result as often as not.
The solution is to make sure we don't fall into this trap again, and that while we will never always sign the right player every time, that as a minimum requirement we sign people that fit the way the manager wants us to play. But purely as an exercise if you have read this thread with a sceptical face on: Pick a midfielder, striker and goalkeeper to add into our current squad. They don't have to be realistic particularly although obviously it seems silly to pick the likes of Messi or Ronaldo simply because those players come along so rarely. Add the players into both the side and squad and then see where you think that side/squad would finish. I am going to post mine up but please don't post yours in response, it can get very dull that way:
Valdes
Manquillo
Lovren
Sakho
Moreno
Can
Pogba
Coutinho
Sterling
Aguero
Lallana
Backup 11
Mignolet
Johnson
Skrtel
Toure
Flanagan
Lucas
Allen
Henderson
Markovic
Sturridge
Origi
Where do I think that team/squad could finish? I'd argue 2nd or 3rd. We're at a stage of evolution, not revolution and in my view there's a big danger that we don't see that and take what may well end up as a disappointing season as proof that we have done more things wrong than we actually have. Or we panic in January and in desperation to secure a top 4 finish we fall into the same traps we fell into in the summer and sign the wrong players for key positions. It is time we back the manager in the best way possible, by finding him the right players to fit his philosophy rather than making him work around what he has. Steven Gerrard is one of my all time favourite players but his decision should have made life a lot easier for what comes next - which is talented, mobile players in the middle of the park allied with mobile players at the top end of the pitch who know where the back of the net is.
We need to be realistic and acknowledge that 4th place is a massive ask for us this season. It usually requires 70 points and last season even that wasn't enough. We have left ourselves needing 41 points from 18 games to reach 70 points. To put that into perspective if we won our next 6 league games on the bounce we'd still need to average 2 points a game for the rest of the season in order to get to 71 points. Our next 6 are Sunderland (a), Villa (a), West Ham (h), Everton (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a). 4 away games and 2 home games both against teams currently above us in the table. We are currently averaging under 1.5 points per game.
I say all this not for people to give up hope, but simply to point out that there is no point spending on short term deals in January to try and bridge the gap to 4th since it is such a huge ask. Rodgers has it absolutely right that we should only be spending in January if the right players are available, players that medium - long term will remain at the club and push us towards where we want to be. And in the summer, even without Champions League football we should have the money to spend to get the quality we need. We have the CL TV money (where I think we get 30% of the full English pot despite getting knocked out), another year of the domestic TV deal, some players to offload for small - medium fees and Steven Gerrard and Glen Johnson's wages.
To summarise, we aren't far away from having a top quality side and squad. Our manager is a top quality coach. However, getting the key summer transfer business wrong means that this season we are pretty much the definition of "so near and yet so far".
