Topic: We still have a mathematical chance for fourth

[Alan_X]

Let's see where we are at Christmas. At the moment we're 6 points off relegation and 12 behind top spot. The only favourites I can see looking at the table are Chelsea for the League and Burnley for the drop.

[CallumLFC]

Southampton will be 4th. We will be 7th; below Spurs and Man Utd.

No chance Spurs are finishing above us.

Adebayor is their main source for goals.

[Working Class Hen-Pecked Hero]

No chance Spurs are finishing above us.

Adebayor is their main source for goals.

Harry Kane says 

[thelinnen]

Lallana = Moses

Christ.

[Zelnaga]

Southampton will be 4th. We will be 7th; below Spurs and Man Utd.

Think southampton will be up there. They can fall off just as much as we can. Sturridge won't be our saviour we want him to be unfortunately and I wouldn't blame FSG if they didn't let Brendan spend any money in Jan.

[Caligula?]

The simple fact is that we're not favourites for fourth as the title suggests, and thinking so only serves to make ourselves feel better about the awful start to the season we've had.

If we do end up getting it, it'll be a real scrap right until the very end with probably 2-3 other teams. We're in no way favorites; not by form, squad, or anything.

[The Playmaker]

Christ.

No, Moses...

[Barneylfc∗]

Harry Kane says 

He's scored 1 deflected league goal. So, Hi Harry 

[The Playmaker]

The simple fact is that we're not favourites for fourth as the title suggests, and thinking so only serves to make ourselves feel better about the awful start to the season we've had.

If we do end up getting it, it'll be a real scrap right until the very end with probably 2-3 other teams. We're in no way favorites; not by form, squad, or anything.

Sadly, I agree with what you wrote. I think the only guaranteed teams in the top four are Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal. I'd like to see where we're at in late December/early January.

[Coolie High]

The simple fact is that we're not favourites for fourth as the title suggests, and thinking so only serves to make ourselves feel better about the awful start to the season we've had.

If we do end up getting it, it'll be a real scrap right until the very end with probably 2-3 other teams. We're in no way favorites; not by form, squad, or anything.

Who is then?

[The Playmaker]

Who is then?

I don't think anyone is at this moment in time. I think some people would suggest that ourselves, Spurs and Manchester United can claim that place. We're all in a similiar(ish) position after ten games. Either way, it still feels too early to have any clear favourites for that particular position.

[Redman0151]

Who is then?

According to the bookies it's United

[Caligula?]

Who is then?

I'll get laughed at for saying it, but Manchester United.

Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria and Mata is a better front line than anything we have at the moment, even if you throw Sturridge in there. And we all saw how Sturridge and Suarez carried us to fourth last season. Van Gaal may not be getting it right at the moment, but he's had 20+ years of experience in the game managing at absolutely the highest levels everywhere, winning titles along the way as well. He's a quality manager, and thinking otherwise is foolish.

Defensively they're a shambles much like ourselves, with the only difference being that come January if they still face the same problems they have now, they'll go out and spunk another 60+ million quid on a new defense. We can't.

[Romford_Red]

Who is our biggest threat to finishing outside the top 4?
Us, that's who.

There's been many a storm like this one, where our form is abject and you just can't see how we'll come out of it (anyone remember Jan and Feb back in 09 during Rafa's title challenge?). We always do, but will we do it in time?
I bloody hope so. Watching us is depressing at the moment.

[Twelfth Man]

I'll get laughed at for saying it, but Manchester United.

Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria and Mata is a better front line than anything we have at the moment, even if you throw Sturridge in there. And we all saw how Sturridge and Suarez carried us to fourth last season. Van Gaal may not be getting it right at the moment, but he's had 20+ years of experience in the game managing at absolutely the highest levels everywhere, winning titles along the way as well. He's a quality manager, and thinking otherwise is foolish.

Defensively they're a shambles much like ourselves, with the only difference being that come January if they still face the same problems they have now, they'll go out and spunk another 60+ million quid on a new defense. We can't.

Need a strong United and Arsenal, the only two teams that can challenge the tyrant slave-owning scum that is City, and the even worse rent boy Oligarch funded shyte that is Chelsea and their fans.

[Humperdinck]

Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria and Mata is a better front line than anything we have at the moment, even if you throw Sturridge in there.

Some nice names then you realise Van Persie looks shot, Falcao has been crap so far and has no form for a year due to injury and not looking too good at Monaco when he did play, Mata has been beyond hopeless so you're left with a declining Rooney and Di Maria. I wouldnt swap those two for Sturridge and Sterling. We obviously need to get Sturridge on the pitch though.

[Caligula?]

Some nice names then you realise Van Persie looks shot, Falcao has been crap so far and has no form for a year due to injury and not looking too good at Monaco when he did play, Mata has been beyond hopeless so you're left with a declining Rooney and Di Maria. I wouldnt swap those two for Sturridge and Sterling. We obviously need to get Sturridge on the pitch though.

Fair enough, but take the best forward out for both teams. Sturridge for us, Di Maria(?) for them. It's clear to see how we're doing without Sturridge, but do you think they'll struggle as much with their best forward (whoever that may be) out?

Then look at who we have as back ups, and who they have.

[Jinxsy]

By form - Southampton
By squad - you'd have to say United, particularly if they are able to shore up their defence by shelling out another wedge in January
Or Anything - only then MIGHT it be us if you presume that the stars align and we're going to hit a hot streak in the second half of the season due to players returning from injury, our conditioning and perhaps a bit more competition for places as the new signings start to find their feet.... 

But I think this is still premature - lets find a bit of form first and get the avg ppg up before Christmas to get a better sense of where this is going to end up.

One of the three - five teams (aside from Southampton) that will be challenging has to find some consistency soon, and if they do then the chances of achieving Top 4 will be a whole lot clearer.. You'd have to say that on the basis of our current performances it isn't likely to be us, but lets see if Brendan can earn his money before getting too downbeat.

There's still every chance that we'll end up somewhere between 10th and 3rd IMO.


A more interesting question given our struggle to prepare for two games in a week is whether we'd prefer to finish in EL spot or further down the table to avoid it if CL footy falls out of our reach this year?

[Alan_X]

Sadly, I agree with what you wrote. I think the only guaranteed teams in the top four are Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal. I'd like to see where we're at in late December/early January.

Arsenal?

[Caligula?]

Arsenal?

Don't think he necessarily means guaranteed, but more along the lines of you just know they'll be there come May. They always are, and always seem to find a way. They have a stronger squad now as well, so you'd expect them to be there come the end of the season.

[Coolie High]

I'll get laughed at for saying it, but Manchester United.

Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria and Mata is a better front line than anything we have at the moment, even if you throw Sturridge in there. And we all saw how Sturridge and Suarez carried us to fourth last season. Van Gaal may not be getting it right at the moment, but he's had 20+ years of experience in the game managing at absolutely the highest levels everywhere, winning titles along the way as well. He's a quality manager, and thinking otherwise is foolish.

Defensively they're a shambles much like ourselves, with the only difference being that come January if they still face the same problems they have now, they'll go out and spunk another 60+ million quid on a new defense. We can't.

It really isn't, all but 1 of those players are on a downward spiral.

[The Playmaker]

Arsenal?

I know, I know! But:

Don't think he necessarily means guaranteed, but more along the lines of you just know they'll be there come May. They always are, and always seem to find a way. They have a stronger squad now as well, so you'd expect them to be there come the end of the season.

[Coolie High]

Fair enough, but take the best forward out for both teams. Sturridge for us, Di Maria(?) for them. It's clear to see how we're doing without Sturridge, but do you think they'll struggle as much with their best forward (whoever that may be) out?

Then look at who we have as back ups, and who they have.

They haven't been in great form, even when all their best forwards were fit.

I don't know what you've seen of them to suggest they're clear favourites.

[Lucas DuoFlush]

By form - Southampton
By squad - you'd have to say United, particularly if they are able to shore up their defence by shelling out another wedge in January
Or Anything - only then MIGHT it be us if you presume that the stars align and we're going to hit a hot streak in the second half of the season due to players returning from injury, our conditioning and perhaps a bit more competition for places as the new signings start to find their feet.... 

But I think this is still premature - lets find a bit of form first and get the avg ppg up before Christmas to get a better sense of where this is going to end up.

One of the three - five teams (aside from Southampton) that will be challenging has to find some consistency soon, and if they do then the chances of achieving Top 4 will be a whole lot clearer.. You'd have to say that on the basis of our current performances it isn't likely to be us, but lets see if Brendan can earn his money before getting too downbeat.

There's still every chance that we'll end up somewhere between 10th and 3rd IMO.


A more interesting question given our struggle to prepare for two games in a week is whether we'd prefer to finish in EL spot or further down the table to avoid it if CL footy falls out of our reach this year?

By the conventional use of the word squad, this simply isn't true. Our rivals for fourth all have vastly inferior squads to us. One of them, United, have a better starting eleven than us.

For people who complain about our transfer policy, consider that after almost every poor performance it is a) our transfer policy which is criticised and b) our traditional scapegoats. If we had decided to go for the Marquee policy we would have ended up much like United - with an awful back line and gaps all over the squad.

We would have ended up with no replacement for Johnson, let alone a backup if he were to be injured. We would have ended up with Enrique at left back, with no one to replace him if he got injured (anyone who would have been happy with that after his most recent performance is mad).

We would have ended up with a currently injured Sakho, a probably injured Agger, leaving us with Skrtel and Toure as our starting back two. Top four material? Maybe 4 seasons ago.

We would have ended up with one striker - Sturridge being injured and Lambert and Borini being considered not good enough. This Marquee striker would have most likely been Falcao which seemed to be the only story with legs. He is currently injured, leaving us with 0 strikers.

I mean honestly the idea that we could have gone and bought three players to solve our problems is total lunacy. We didnt have the resources or the base squad for it.

Edit: Additionally, though we were dire for large parts of the Newcastle game, in our last three games we've conceded only 2 goals. I think Rodgers made a concious deciison just before the Hull game that we were going to play more cautiously and wear teams down. That seemed to be working against Hull and I think it was our plan with Newcastle but we gave away a silly goal which was more misfortune than anything.

[Caligula?]

It really isn't, all but 1 of those players are on a downward spiral.

That's an incredibly flawed argument.

I'll go back at you and say that our options consist of a striker who's guaranteed to miss 2-3 months a season every season. Followed by an incredible talent that we're putting too much pressure on. The rest comprise of a striker who is good for only 5-6 goals a season (some of which may be penalties), an unknown quantity in Balotelli, and a player that's the very definition of a downward spiral in Lambert.

[RayPhilAlan]

I'll get laughed at for saying it, but Manchester United.

Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria and Mata is a better front line than anything we have at the moment, even if you throw Sturridge in there. And we all saw how Sturridge and Suarez carried us to fourth last season. Van Gaal may not be getting it right at the moment, but he's had 20+ years of experience in the game managing at absolutely the highest levels everywhere, winning titles along the way as well. He's a quality manager, and thinking otherwise is foolish.

Defensively they're a shambles much like ourselves, with the only difference being that come January if they still face the same problems they have now, they'll go out and spunk another 60+ million quid on a new defense. We can't.

Suarez and Sturridge carried us to what??

[Caligula?]

Suarez and Sturridge carried us to what??

Well spotted, meant into the top four and nearly the title. 

[Alan_X]

Don't think he necessarily means guaranteed, but more along the lines of you just know they'll be there come May. They always are, and always seem to find a way. They have a stronger squad now as well, so you'd expect them to be there come the end of the season.

If we put a run together then I think its any two from United, Arsenal, Us... and possibly Saints, Spurs or Everton...

Arsenal have scraped over the line a couple of times now. The argument that they'll always be there was used for United last year - nothing is a given. And their squad doesn't feel that much better than in recent years. The additions were meant to have them challenging for the title but at the moment they are level on points with West Ham, 4 points above Newcastle in 12th and already nine points off the leaders.

[MazzaKopter]

By the conventional use of the word squad, this simply isn't true. Our rivals for fourth all have vastly inferior squads to us. One of them, United, have a better starting eleven than us.

For people who complain about our transfer policy, consider that after almost every poor performance it is a) our transfer policy which is criticised and b) our traditional scapegoats. If we had decided to go for the Marquee policy we would have ended up much like United - with an awful back line and gaps all over the squad.

We would have ended up with no replacement for Johnson, let alone a backup if he were to be injured. We would have ended up with Enrique at left back, with no one to replace him if he got injured (anyone who would have been happy with that after his most recent performance is mad).

We would have ended up with a currently injured Sakho, a probably injured Agger, leaving us with Skrtel and Toure as our starting back two. Top four material? Maybe 4 seasons ago.

We would have ended up with one striker - Sturridge being injured and Lambert and Borini being considered not good enough. This Marquee striker would have most likely been Falcao which seemed to be the only story with legs. He is currently injured, leaving us with 0 strikers.

I mean honestly the idea that we could have gone and bought three players to solve our problems is total lunacy. We didnt have the resources or the base squad for it.

But now all we have are a load of average to good players with maybe three world class in Gerrard, Sturridge and Sterling. We went for quantity over quality in the hope that a few of them will turn world class but this is risky and at the moment many of the signing don't look that much better than what we had last season despite the millions spent. Are bench looks stronger on paper but is it really that much of an improvement when they come on and do nothing? So is it better to buy already world class stars and hope they don't get injured or 7 good players that wont offer as much. I personally would have preferred we chose to add quality and keep a relatively small group but what we have now is a very large squad who won't make the difference.

[killer-heels]

But now all we have are a load of average to good players with maybe three world class in Gerrard, Sturridge and Sterling. We went for quantity over quality in the hope that a few of them will turn world class but this is risky and at the moment many of the signing don't look that much better than what we had last season despite the millions spent. Are bench looks stronger on paper but is it really that much of an improvement when they come on and do nothing? So is it better to buy already world class stars and hope they don't get injured or 7 good players that wont offer as much. I personally would have preferred we chose to add quality and keep a relatively small group but what we have now is a very large squad who won't make the difference.

So far we have had Johnson, Skrtel, Sakho, Enrique, Flanagan, Allen, Sturridge injured from the remaining players. Say we would have bought 2 or 3 world class stars as you put it, what sort of team would we have put out?

[Caligula?]

If we put a run together then I think its any two from United, Arsenal, Us... and possibly Saints, Spurs or Everton...

Arsenal have scraped over the line a couple of times now. The argument that they'll always be there was used for United last year - nothing is a given. And their squad doesn't feel that much better than in recent years. The additions were meant to have them challenging for the title but at the moment they are level on points with West Ham, 4 points above Newcastle in 12th and already nine points off the leaders.

Yeah but when we compare the "they'll always be there" argument relative to United and Arsenal, for United before last season it would have signified that they'll always be up there challenging for the title, which obviously isn't the case anymore. But for Arsenal it remains the same, somehow always getting to fourth. Just the simple fact that they've scrapped into the CL for a few seasons now further strengthens that notion in my opinion. Wenger has mastered it like an art, and with mediocre players in the past as well. Slow starts, terrible runs of form, and they still go on incredible end of season runs to get it. Yes, nothing is a given but I don't think the example of United falling from grace is applicable to Arsenal.

So I'd still agree with the poster who said that those three will more than likely be in the top four come the end of may, with the only question remaining of who will join them.

[The Playmaker]

If we put a run together then I think its any two from United, Arsenal, Us... and possibly Saints, Spurs or Everton...

Arsenal have scraped over the line a couple of times now. The argument that they'll always be there was used for United last year - nothing is a given. And their squad doesn't feel that much better than in recent years. The additions were meant to have them challenging for the title but at the moment they are level on points with West Ham, 4 points above Newcastle in 12th and already nine points off the leaders.

Fair enough. It would be interesting if this was the year that they did finally fall out of the top four. They have scraped over the line a couple of times. Even so, I just can't see Arsenal not finishing in the top four! They have enough quality and enough experience to put together the type of runs that will get them there. They still have a lot of quality in their side and plenty of options and versatility. After ten games, they have only lost once. When in reality: they should have probably lost three or four games. The problem has been too many draws so far. I've seen them play a couple of times and even though they didn't play well and looked likely to lose they still managed to salvage something from the game. In the big games they might come unstuck but I don't think it will be enough to push them out of the top four.

[MazzaKopter]

So far we have had Johnson, Skrtel, Sakho, Enrique, Flanagan, Allen, Sturridge injured from the remaining players. Say we would have bought 2 or 3 world class stars as you put it, what sort of team would we have put out?

Well last season we had a back four including Cissokho and Toure  not the greatest in the world but we also had world class players of Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling. I'am of the opinion that you can cope with an average squad in the most part but throw in some world class players and it will terrify the opposition but also lift the rest of the team to new levels like we saw last season. I think we should have built on this not lift the overall quality of the squad but lose that overall threat which is what we have done.

[Coolie High]

That's an incredibly flawed argument.

I'll go back at you and say that our options consist of a striker who's guaranteed to miss 2-3 months a season every season. Followed by an incredible talent that we're putting too much pressure on. The rest comprise of a striker who is good for only 5-6 goals a season (some of which may be penalties), an unknown quantity in Balotelli, and a player that's the very definition of a downward spiral in Lambert.

And Sterling the best young talent in the world.


Rooney RVP and Falcaos best seasons are behind them that is more than clear to see, right now Sterling and Sturridge are better more dangerous players for sure.

I think our squad is pretty equal with the exception of us having a manager who has been with us or 3 years and has had time to enact the way we play football on our team, it might of not have clicked so far this season, but i would hazard a guess were' closer to finding form and hitting the heights we did last season, than United are, simply based on the virtue of us actually playing great football in the last 12 months, while United simply haven't.

Apart from that i would say they have a even inferior more injury ragged defence than even we do.

Certainly not clear favourites, unless you completely choose to ignore the fact that they've actually been nearly as bad as they were under Moyes.

[CallumLFC]

It really isn't, all but 1 of those players are on a downward spiral.

Most of the signs for each of their downward spiral will be seen in 18 months or a bit more.

Not this season.

[Coolie High]

Most of the signs for each of their downward spiral will be seen in 18 months or a bit more.

Not this season.

Its already being seen.

RVP lost of pace is evident, only scored 3 goals this season as well as being in poor form for Netherlands.

Rooney can still score, but his all round player ranges from shite to decent, his performances in the last 6 months have been some of the worst in his career as well.

Falcao is still recovering from a big injury yet to be seen if he is still the same player, the sings are their now. if we're going on past reputations they have a far better front line than us, but its simply not the case anymore.

[jaffod]

But now all we have are a load of average to good players with maybe three world class in Gerrard, Sturridge and Sterling. We went for quantity over quality in the hope that a few of them will turn world class but this is risky and at the moment many of the signing don't look that much better than what we had last season despite the millions spent. Are bench looks stronger on paper but is it really that much of an improvement when they come on and do nothing? So is it better to buy already world class stars and hope they don't get injured or 7 good players that wont offer as much. I personally would have preferred we chose to add quality and keep a relatively small group but what we have now is a very large squad who won't make the difference.

Sorry mate but you're kidding yourself. We don't have one world class player. None. Gerrard was but isn't anymore and Sterling and Sturridge may become world class but right now they are not at that level.

BR had a choice in the summer, buy quality and be short of numbers and unable to compete on 2 fronts or bulk out the squad with inferior standard players and hope it all clicks. Right now it looks like it's backfiring spectacularly but whatever he did he'd have left himself open to criticism.

[diegoLFC7]

Its quite comical how we beat the super Southampton  result of the year.

[jaffod]

Its quite comical how we beat the super Southampton  result of the year.

And sobering to think in the next 9 games they've taken 22 points and we've taken 11.

[GG8]

If we put a run together then I think its any two from United, Arsenal, Us... and possibly Saints, Spurs or Everton...

Arsenal have scraped over the line a couple of times now. The argument that they'll always be there was used for United last year - nothing is a given. And their squad doesn't feel that much better than in recent years. The additions were meant to have them challenging for the title but at the moment they are level on points with West Ham, 4 points above Newcastle in 12th and already nine points off the leaders.

I'd have to disagree on the squad issue, we look much stronger as a whole than last year. Without Alexis and to a lesser extent Welbeck and Chambers I would shudder to think where we would be now in the league.

Last years squad couldn't have coped with the players we have missing at the minute, but we somehow have only one defeat in the league, have been to The Bridge and Goodison, have hosted the Champions and a NL derby and are undefeated in 22 games at home.

With players coming back from injury I wouldn't say things are looking rosy, but of all the top teams outside of Chelsea, I think Arsenal are the most likely to go on a run and start putting points on the board.