Carrying on from the tin cup reference are we taking excessive risks or are we just shit at the back? Though we play an aggressive midfield that occasionally gets exposed I'm inclined to think we're just shit at the back.
I get what you mean but nerves are a weird thing too in sport, and I'm pretty sure when you consider nerves in the context of momentum you need to be more controlling. Nerves, as I see it, mean momentum and psychic energy within a game play a huge part and can swing wildly. And those nerves come from everyone in the ground not just the team. You can't stop nerves, as they come from the excitement of where we are at, you just have to deal with them more maturely.
We were 2 up after 20 minutes - there was nothing to be lost there by sticking the ball up your jumper for 10 minutes and not giving them a sniff. But in some of our recent games - I'm discounting the Fulham game because we were always chasing that one - the momentum has been with us and we've just smelled blood, gone for the kill and murdered teams. I thought our game management at 2:0 was poor on Sunday above all else. There was enough from Swansea in that opening 20 minutes of the game that it wasn't over and the fact that we seemed pretty nervous defensively from the outset. Once they got back to 2:1 I never once doubted they could score again - or indeed that we would definitely score again. Probably egged on from recent games we lost our heads and our shape and just kept going at them without taking the timeout and sucking the life out of them for a while and settling everyone down.
So again, after the second goal we should really have just regained our shape and kept the ball for a while. Then gone at them again. Because we didn't take the sting out, and because we were a little bit nervous, we lost momentum for a little bit and let them back into it. Yeah, it was the same all-too-familiar individual errors that led to the goals but I think the momentum swung their way and led to the goals.
We didn't have that control until Joe Allen came on, from there it never looked like we'd be beat.
The away derby is the closest game I can think of where this has bitten us in the arse, I'm sure there'll be others. The counter to that is that we got the away goal against WBA and sat in and then a stupid error cost us. Swings and roundabouts.
That was my reasoning for wanting to be more controlling in the upcoming away games. It's not fear or cowardice, or a want for lower scoring games, I firmly believe if we'd gotten to half time at 2:0 on Sunday we'd have scored a couple more and gotten to 4 anyway - but minus the drama.
So to answer your question, I don't really think we are a taking excessive risks we're just excessively exuberant at times. But that's the joy of this team, and this season, so I don't want to look like I'm overly maligning them. But conversely I don't think that exuberance when you're 2:0 up, and your defence who haven't played together much recently looks nervous as fuck, does anybody at the back any favours either. It breeds nerves and counter momentum. (But the tally of unforced errors is becoming insane too though, isn't it?)
It feels so spoiled to be nit-picking against a young team that has served up so much this season - but how we handle nerves and in game momentum shifts are probably going to be our demons (as Neil Atkinson would call them) over the run in. We really do have a chance. You certainly wouldn't bet against us winning all our games based on attacking teams - sheer firepower got us out of jail on Sunday - but I think it is nouse that is called for when you are carrying a defence that has shown capacity for such nervousness and is so unsettled.
That was probably why the Tin Cup reference. I don't think a midfield of Henderson - Gerard - Allen away from home when chasing a championship necessarily does us any harm. It feels like a consistent 7.5/10 combative midfield which will be enough for those three games and allow Gerrard to be a bit more creative rather than fire fighting. These 3 games will define where we end up I'm convinced of that. They are all winnable and will set us up perfectly for April. (I also think if Luis starts scoring again we will win the league)
I think Phil has been a bit "peaks and troughs" of late and maybe looks a little bit tired. Plus Raheem will be detailed on the right against Shaw, him being taken off on Sunday when he looked a bit leggy gaurantees that. So Phil maybe loses out for me and he isn't a bad weapon to have off the bench. I'm convinced we can win this title, we only need to be a teeny tiny bit more pragmatic at certain points.
@mikenielson - I love that movie too. It's terrible but nicely off-beat.