Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[Craig S]

Well, it's more to stand up for their own benefit as a united collective using their combined bargaining power rather than anything sadistic. Not really the EUs fault if the UK chooses to self harm.

But it conclusively puts to bed the myth peddled by the Brexiteer morons that Germany will force through a trade deal with us to protect their auto industry. Turns out that was all bullshit, who knew?

Wallingtonion you still reading this thread?

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

The german car market argument is one of many scraping the barrel excuses brexiters use to justify their stupidity.
The flip side for that argument is germany would gain from our service sector...which brexiters conveniently ignored.

[cloggypop]

But it conclusively puts to bed the myth peddled by the Brexiteer morons that Germany will force through a trade deal with us to protect their auto industry. Turns out that was all bullshit, who knew?

Wallingtonion you still reading this thread?

Well yeah.

[Libertine]

 

Reality is going to hit home very soon....

https://twitter.com/HughSykes/status/858790155632750592

[Zeb]

She's going to be in the running for worst First Lord of the Treasury since Lord North. Just ahead of Dave.

[Zeb]

Jeremy Cliffe (The Economist's Berlin correspondent) has some more on that reporting:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552

EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses. "Let us make Brexit a success" she told them.

Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".

She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in reality.
May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.

ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit

"The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was only half way through the dinner)

Wonder if they really do have the nerve to push this through if that is Plan A. And it's equally obvious the EU is not going to be sitting silently and copping the blame for crazy not being a good negotiating strategy.

[Elmo!]

Jeremy Cliffe (The Economist's Berlin correspondent) has some more on that reporting:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552

Wonder if they really do have the nerve to push this through if that is Plan A. And it's equally obvious the EU is not going to be sitting silently and copping the blame for crazy not being a good negotiating strategy.

https://twitter.com/paul_haine/status/858935395811241985 

[TepidT2O]

Jeremy Cliffe (The Economist's Berlin correspondent) has some more on that reporting:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552

Wonder if they really do have the nerve to push this through if that is Plan A. And it's equally obvious the EU is not going to be sitting silently and copping the blame for crazy not being a good negotiating strategy.

It distresses me that this is going so badly... yet it does not surprise me one iota.

This is singularly the most stupid act that this country has undertaken for centuries.

[Peabee]

Instead of transparency from our own government, made up of elected ministers, we have to rely on leaks from the EU to be kept updated. 

[TepidT2O]

Instead of transparency from our own government, made up of elected ministers, we have to rely on leaks from the EU to be kept updated. 

Everything will leak, and all from the EU end.  Why should they keep it secret, they have no reason to.

What this shows us, is that working as a block of nations puts you in a really strong position for negotiations. Maybe we should try it?

Madness, I fear for the country when we drop off the cliff...

[Red-Soldier]

Everything will leak, and all from the EU end.  Why should they keep it secret, they have no reason to.

What this shows us, is that working as a block of nations puts you in a really strong position for negotiations. Maybe we should try it?

Madness, I fear for the country when we drop off the cliff...

Couldn't get much worse than dropping out the EU, whilst being lead by a right-wing Tory party, with a shite PM at the helm.

[Zeb]

https://twitter.com/paul_haine/status/858935395811241985 

----

Just on secrecy, as the Cliffe thread highlights, the EU can't have secrecy because it's going to go round 27 governments and the EU's own democratic processes for agreement. There is no secret deal to be had. Nor is there any way that Britain can play the hokey cokey with the EU on membership just because some treaties have been carefully negotiated to allow us the flexibility to do that on some aspects of inter-EU cooperation.

Others have pointed out that EU citizens look like they'll be royally fucked over if May thinks that treating them as non-EU citizens is the way forward. That's nearly 4 million people across Europe (EU citizens and ex-pat Brits) suddenly stripped of their rights to work and live where they are now two weeks after the General Election should May push on with this. The "Nasty Party" is back. Although it never really went away.

[reniformis]

----

Just on secrecy, as the Cliffe thread highlights, the EU can't have secrecy because it's going to go round 27 governments and the EU's own democratic processes for agreement. There is no secret deal to be had. Nor is there any way that Britain can play the hokey cokey with the EU on membership just because some treaties have been carefully negotiated to allow us the flexibility to do that on some aspects of inter-EU cooperation.

Others have pointed out that EU citizens look like they'll be royally fucked over if May thinks that treating them as non-EU citizens is the way forward. That's nearly 4 million people across Europe (EU citizens and ex-pat Brits) suddenly stripped of their rights to work and live where they are now two weeks after the General Election should May push on with this. The "Nasty Party" is back. Although it never really went away.

She is utterly fucking deluded and it's scary. If we were just negotiating with Germany we'd still be the weaker party and that's before adding France and 25 others to the German side. I can only assume this leak is targeted at the British public, pre-election, to try and salvage negotiations. Get rid of these clowns before your country goes down the toilet. I don't know whether the opposition parties have had contact with Junker, I suspect they have unofficially and the EU would rather deal with any of them rather than this bunch of c*nts.

[TheShanklyGates]

She is utterly fucking deluded and it's scary. If we were just negotiating with Germany we'd still be the weaker party and that's before adding France and 25 others to the German side. I can only assume this leak is targeted at the British public, pre-election, to try and salvage negotiations. Get rid of these clowns before your country goes down the toilet. I don't know whether the opposition parties have had contact with Junker, I suspect they have unofficially and the EU would rather deal with any of them rather than this bunch of c*nts.

The British public are so fucking stupid that this will probably only strengthen her. I just despair at the whole sorry situation.

[So… Howard Philips]

The British public are so fucking stupid that this will probably only strengthen her. I just despair at the whole sorry situation.

I'm sure some of the stupid still think we have the captive market of the Empire.

They don't realise, for instance,that India can buy their railway rolling stock from any where in the world rather than Crewe.

This country's lack of education and dishonest media and politicains constantly harking on about the economic norms of the late 19th century will seen the current decline rapidly increase

[jillcwhomever]

The woman is totally deluded. 

The EU is right, Theresa May is deluded about Brexit – there is no way she can make a success of it

If you thought chaos under David Cameron was chaos, chaos under Theresa May is going to be on different order of magnitude altogether

For the supremely maladjusted folk who make their living lunching politicians, and I speak of course of Her Majesty’s Westminster press corps, it is occasionally whispered of Theresa May that, by the end, even the cutlery is glancing toward the exit.

But even by her own uniquely low standards, it would appear that last week’s Downing Street dinner with EU Commission President Jean Claude Juncker has reached previously unknown depths of awkwardness.

It’s the little details – all of them diligently leaked by Juncker’s mates to a German newspaper – that do it.

Not once, not twice but fully three times, as Juncker points out that “Brexit cannot be a success” does David Davis interject to tell a favourite anecdote about the time he took the Home Office to court over illegal data retention and won – while the Home Office was being run by a woman called Theresa May.

But it is there that perhaps one should stop laughing. With the Brexit penny having been in freefall for almost a full year now (rather like its friend, the pound), it’s theoretically possible, though unlikely, that the full and frank details of the first meaningful Brexit meeting might be enough for the Brexiteers finally to acknowledge its descent.

The persistent warnings of Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk have been diligently ignored by much of the nation since long before the referendum ever happened. Could Jean Claude Juncker walking out of Downing Street and declaring himself “ten times more sceptical than before” about the possibility of any kind of Brexit deal being struck be the little detail that finally captures their attention?

Sadly, for those of us trying to close our eyes and visualise the sheer glorious horror of it all, the leaked information does not detail whether it was over starters, mains or to fill a conversational gap between courses that the Prime Minister attempted to move the conversation on from the Ł50bn bill she is refusing to settle to the question of “How do we make a success of all this?”

Nor do we know who spoke next after Juncker breezily informed her, “Brexit cannot be a success,” but if there are three re-tellings of the data retention story to shoehorn in to the busy narrative it’s probably fair to imagine one of them coming here.

That the next morning, when Angela Merkel addressed the German parliament and told them “some in the UK still have illusions” about Brexit, we now know to have been a direct reference to the Prime Minister herself should tell an electorate all it needs to know about the “strong and stable leadership” Theresa May is promising.

I happen to have pointed out, many times, how Theresa May’s sales pitch is utterly identical to the “strong and stable government with me or chaos under Ed Miliband” her predecessor won an unexpected majority with, and used it to detonate the national currency, then resign at dawn to usher in a new era of chaos the like of which has never been seen.

But it won’t matter. Nothing alters the choice on offer. It is simply sheer bad luck for us all that we live suddenly in an age where the two main parties have rendered themselves utterly incapable of the task of governing the country.

But the horrendous Juncker dinner should make one thing inescapably clear. If you thought chaos under David Cameron was chaos, chaos under Theresa May is going to be on different order of magnitude altogether.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-jean-claude-juncker-dinner-leaked-details-brexit-unrealistic-a7711446.html

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Reading what these Brexit arseholes are saying, it's staggering.

Can anyone actually really be that fucking thick?

As I said, there must be some backstage deal or reason why they want this. What the fuck can it be?

[Currywurst]

My wife is German (Edit: I'm British). We've been here for 40 years, during which time we've run our own business, had children, paid lots of tax and NIC and generally contributed to British society in financial and social terms.

When the Brexit result came through, I said I felt like going back to Germany, despite no longer having any roots or social connections there. It was an expression of my frustration at the stupidity of the result and I was told to calm down and not overreact. All will be well.

We're currently jumping through the required hoops: Right of Residence application - Ł65 plus Ł25 for a copy of her passport, which she'd otherwise have to deposit with the Home Office for 6 months, along with the 84-page form  and copious supporting documentation. They've had it for 2 months now and I'm sure they're drowning in the deluge of applications, which they've made so complex that they can't cope.

We have decided that it's safer for my wife also to apply for naturalisation (if only to get her a vote, whatever good that will do), so the next step is the English proficiency test to prove she can communicate adequately (after 40 years here, she does the Times bloody crossword). Then it's on to the Life in the UK test, with questions reflecting the everyday knowledge of every true Brit, such as When habeas corpus became law, How long Britain was a republic, What was the Treaty of Rhioddan and so on. All involving considerable cost and travel of course; we can afford it and are still halfway fit and able, but it's surely a burden for some. I recently spent hours reassuring two worried elderly German widows of deceased Brits, who have never had to deal with anything like this, that they will be graciously allowed to remain in the country where they've spent by far the greater part of their lives.

Over the past 9 months, whenever I've mentioned these issues to friends, they all chuckle and say, Oh, don't worry, they're bound to agree on reciprocal rights, and of course I really need to believe this. Mind you, they're just thinking she won't be deported, ignoring vital points like pension rights, NHS cover etc., which they understandably didn't even think about till we mentioned it.

I'm sure this is by no means an unusual story; there are plenty of reports of the insecurity caused by our use as bargaining chips. But all along I've comforted myself with the thought that they surely can't be so pig-headed as to blunder out of the negotiations without reaching an agreement affecting 4 million people here and in EU countries. But the more I hear of the government's deluded attitude to the negotiations, the more I worry that they could actually be so dumb, ruthless and in thrall to the right wing of the Tory party that they will indeed "just walk away, better no deal than a bad deal", as the hardline Brexiteers keep spouting.

After believing it can't happen, it's dawning on me that these foaming fuckers might actually do it. And what the hell do we do then? I'm starting to seriously shit myself, as no doubt are the other 4 million in the same boat.

[Red-Soldier]

The British public are so fucking stupid that this will probably only strengthen her. I just despair at the whole sorry situation.

I agree with this.

[Banquo's Ghost]

After believing it can't happen, it's dawning on me that these foaming fuckers might actually do it. And what the hell do we do then? I'm starting to seriously shit myself, as no doubt are the other 4 million in the same boat.

I sympathise with you. It's utterly horrendous, especially so when guaranteeing residence rights is the simplest of agreements.

My own view is that you would be much better off planning to leave for Germany. The UK is on its way to becoming a barren wasteland, a stark example of what happens when people give in to fear and hatred of the other. In Germany you are likely to retain a decent job, with real economic prospects for your family.

I've closed my business in the UK, and am shortly off to a wiser place. Germany would have been high on my list of places to live, had I a connection more helpful to citizenship than having a fantastic German step-mother.

In my view, anyone who can get out ought to do it.

[So… Howard Philips]

Re Currywurst

I'm a bit of a history buff so without any reference to the web or a proper book here are my guesses;

a)  When habeas corpus became law, 1215 - Magna Carta

b)  How long Britain was a republic, 12 years from the execution of Charles I

c)  What was the Treaty of Rhioddan, never heard of it.

I'd love to see how of those who are getting their country back could have a stab at the test. Maybe it should be compulsory before you are allowed to vote?

[Currywurst]

We're both retired and have family here. In Germany we only have my aged mother-in-law, who's in a nursing home with dementia (hence needing to retain my wife's passport for visits). We have such good friends here and otherwise like the UK, in Germany we don't really know anyone any more. It's not easy to replace long-standing friendships, particularly for a grumpy sod like me. To throw everything up at this time of life is not a particularly appealing prospect, although it may well come to that if the rutting stags in the negotiations can't stop showing how big their dicks are and actually do their jobs, i.e. actually negotiate, without being blinded by their respective agendas.

[Currywurst]

Re Currywurst

I'm a bit of a history buff so without any reference to the web or a proper book here are my guesses;

a)  When habeas corpus became law, 1215 - Magna Carta

b)  How long Britain was a republic, 12 years from the execution of Charles I

c)  What was the Treaty of Rhioddan, never heard of it.

I'd love to see how of those who are getting their country back could have a stab at the test. Maybe it should be compulsory before you are allowed to vote?

a) Habeas Corpus Act was 1679. Not the same as Magna Carta (as I had thought, too)
b) Dead right - major Brownie points!
c) Amalgamation of England and Wales.

It's worth looking at some sample tests - just Google Life in the UK test. We've tried lots with our British friends and very few  have managed to pass the required 75% correct score. In fact just 2 to date, and then not with all the tests they tried.

You're on 33% at the moment, although some of the questions are more obvious

[Robinred]

We're both retired and have family here. In Germany we only have my aged mother-in-law, who's in a nursing home with dementia (hence needing to retain my wife's passport for visits). We have such good friends here and otherwise like the UK, in Germany we don't really know anyone any more. It's not easy to replace long-standing friendships, particularly for a grumpy sod like me. To throw everything up at this time of life is not a particularly appealing prospect, although it may well come to that if the rutting stags in the negotiations can't stop showing how big their dicks are and actually do their jobs, i.e. actually negotiate, without being blinded by their respective agendas.

You have my utmost sympathy.

I lived in Spain after retirement, for 6 years. My late wife and I only returned because she had a terminal illness and wanted to be close to family.

I have a nice, quiet life here, and excellent friends. But the nationalism, jingoism, racism and ignorance that last year I saw rise to the surface, made me realise that I live in a country I don't like any more.

[Willi]

I've just taken the 'Life in Germany' exam which is extremely easy. over 50% correct required, 33 multiple choice questions to answer out of a catalogue of 310 questions which are all with answers in the internet. 1 hour allowed, people were walking out after 10 minutes because they had finished. I didn't even bother checking my answers.

[Currywurst]

I've just taken the 'Life in Germany' exam which is extremely easy. over 50% correct required, 33 multiple choice questions to answer out of a catalogue of 310 questions which are all with answers in the internet. 1 hour allowed, people were walking out after 10 minutes because they had finished. I didn't even bother checking my answers.

The practice Life in the Uk tests we've done require 75%, 18 correct of 24 questions.  Still, if you fail, you can try again - for another fee of Ł65 each time!

Seems a referendum here needs only 52%, but citizenship tests require 75%. Shame it's not the other way round, eh?

[AaronSingh25]

Funny think i was on holiday and a fair few people summed it quite easily to me.

The EU will grant the UK some border controls, those who come to work will have the same freed to move rights - it will appease the masses who want to curb immigration (irrational fears, racism, pressures on services, etc). The UK will pay a fee for such a privilege, possible even abide by EU law again, and everything else will be normal.

Apart the EU law this was what most Brexiteers sold as the model to the public.

The UK already has some form of border controls different to the EU, especially those from outside the EU and the Schengen agreement. The UK is exempt from the free movement of travellers outside the EU that arrive into an EU state. Every other country allows those travellers free movement, except the UK. So there is protocol there to give the UK different rules.

Pretty easy eh. Why would all the EU countries want to harm themselves, including the UK, all because the UK wants to curb the free flow of people.

It could all be done over a cup of tea and biscuits.

[TepidT2O]

1) Why should negotiations be complex? Canada is misnomer. We already have all the EU rules and regs. It's only as complex as they want it to be. Utter nonsense to say because it took Canada years to get a deal it will take us similar.

2) Why are Junker and co leaking private conversations if they having nothing to be worried about and the UK officials (as they seem to think) are in denial?


There is hyperbole on both sides.

1.  Our economic and legal process have been interwoven for 40 years.  Of course unpicking those will be immensely complex.
I'm not sure why this is a contencious issue, no one thinks it isn't complex if they know anything about it.

2.  Why shouldn't junker leak the discussions? The EU line has been utterly consistent on what they will offer. It has never wavered.  Why should his discussions be kept secret from the other 27 member states?   What issue is it for them?

[Thush]

1) Why should negotiations be complex? Canada is misnomer. We already have all the EU rules and regs. It's only as complex as they want it to be. Utter nonsense to say because it took Canada years to get a deal it will take us similar.

2) Why are Junker and co leaking private conversations if they having nothing to be worried about and the UK officials (as they seem to think) are in denial?

There is hyperbole on both sides.

1) We have the EU regulations right now because we have signed up for freedom of movement. When that goes, there will be no free trade access to the single market nor customs union. A new trade deal will have to be agreed, now that we will be a party similar to Canada.

2) I would rather officials on both sides be clear about what is happening.

[AaronSingh25]

1) We have the EU regulations right now because we have signed up for freedom of movement. When that goes, there will be no free trade access to the single market nor customs union. A new trade deal will have to be agreed, now that we will be a party similar to Canada.

2) I would rather officials on both sides be clear about what is happening.

1) Utter nonsense. We could keep the same EU trade deal we already have. The Canada deal was a brand new deal, and has some different complexities to other states. It's only complex as the EU want to make it.

2) Yes but only one side is leaking so far.

[redbyrdz]

1) Utter nonsense. We could keep the same EU trade deal we already have. The Canada deal was a brand new deal, and has some different complexities to other states. It's only complex as the EU want to make it.

2) Yes but only one side is leaking so far.

The EU trade deal is only valid for EU members.

[AaronSingh25]

Anyways i see my post was deleted by someone, so i am assuming there is no discussion to be had but rather just an anti Brexit thread.

Shame.

Hopefully everything works out okay in the end.

Good to see Sterling rising again though !

[Thush]

1) Utter nonsense. We could keep the same EU trade deal we already have. The Canada deal was a brand new deal, and has some different complexities to other states. It's only complex as the EU want to make it.

2) Yes but only one side is leaking so far.

I don't see how you could keep the same trade deal but still withdraw from the single market and customs union (and freedom of movement). By definition, that is already a different deal.

[AaronSingh25]

The EU trade deal is only valid for EU members.

The point being, it's not going to be as complex as the Canadian deal is it. Thus the continously bringing up the Canadian deal is silly.

Even the most anti Brexit of commentators concede as much.

[TepidT2O]

1) Utter nonsense. We could keep the same EU trade deal we already have. The Canada deal was a brand new deal, and has some different complexities to other states. It's only complex as the EU want to make it.

2) Yes but only one side is leaking so far.

Why would the EU give us the same deal as that for EU members?

It makes no sense.

The other members who were a little bit unsettled would see it and go 'Hey we're leaving too if we can get the same trade deal without all the other trickier commitments'

We have an EU trade deal as we are currently part of the EU.

We are leaving the EU, we are leaving the single market, why would they give us the same trade deal?  It only hurts them.

[AaronSingh25]

Why would the EU give us the same deal as that for EU members?

It makes no sense.

The other members who were a little bit unsettled would see it and go 'Hey we're leaving too if we can get the same trade deal without all the other trickier commitments'

We have an EU trade deal as we are currently part of the EU.

We are leaving the EU, we are leaving the single market, why would they give us the same trade deal?  It only hurts them.

I love how you say it's fact that we are leaving the single market. I believe negotiations have barely even started. David Davies has intimated he wants to remain in the single market if possible - yet you are saying we have left.

Furthermore you are saying, why would the EU give us a good deal because other countries might copy. Say's it all really. They want to destroy a country because others might get excited if they make a success out of it. The sheer hypocrisy of that statement - that it's okay for the EU to act like c*nts, but when the UK officials behave the same we are suddenly outraged.

Despite the bluff from both sides - there will be an agreement.

[Zeb]

EU: These are the rules of the club. We've all agreed to them.
Britain: Well, can't you change the rules so we can have the ones we like and not have the ones we don't like?
EU: We'd need to renegotiate that for every member if we did that for you. That would take decades. So, no. These are the rules.
Britain: Why u make this so complex?

EU: Legally, and under the treaties governing this, we need to do this in this order..
Britain: Got to keep it secret!
EU: But this has to go through 27 national governments, and then be finalised by the EU as a whole. Who are you trying to keep it secret from?
Britain: Tory voters!

[TheShanklyGates]

I love how you say it's fact that we are leaving the single market. I believe negotiations have barely even started. David Davies has intimated he wants to remain in the single market if possible - yet you are saying we have left.

Furthermore you are saying, why would the EU give us a good deal because other countries might copy. Say's it all really. They want to destroy a country because others might get excited if they make a success out of it. The sheer hypocrisy of that statement - that it's okay for the EU to act like c*nts, but when the UK officials behave the same we are suddenly outraged.

Despite the bluff from both sides - there will be an agreement.

Simply incredible that people still have their heads buried in the sand over this.

[Thush]

I love how you say it's fact that we are leaving the single market. I believe negotiations have barely even started. David Davies has intimated he wants to remain in the single market if possible - yet you are saying we have left.

Furthermore you are saying, why would the EU give us a good deal because other countries might copy. Say's it all really. They want to destroy a country because others might get excited if they make a success out of it. The sheer hypocrisy of that statement - that it's okay for the EU to act like c*nts, but when the UK officials behave the same we are suddenly outraged.

Despite the bluff from both sides - there will be an agreement.

There is a difference between being part of a single market (as we are now) and having access to a single market. Being part of it means we can trade with other EU countries without charges or tariffs. Once we have left the single market (as has been stated time and again by Theresa May), we will be charged to access the single market, just like any other non-EU country.


Those charges and tariffs are what needs to be agreed in the new trade deal.


The EU doesn't want to destroy the UK (they don't need to). They only want to ensure the stable continuation of the EU. The UK has already decided to leave, so what remains to be decided is how the exit will be done and the terms of any relationship afterwards. The EU have been consistent in this throughout.

[TepidT2O]

I love how you say it's fact that we are leaving the single market. I believe negotiations have barely even started. David Davies has intimated he wants to remain in the single market if possible - yet you are saying we have left.

Furthermore you are saying, why would the EU give us a good deal because other countries might copy. Say's it all really. They want to destroy a country because others might get excited if they make a success out of it. The sheer hypocrisy of that statement - that it's okay for the EU to act like c*nts, but when the UK officials behave the same we are suddenly outraged.

Despite the bluff from both sides - there will be an agreement.

It's not about hypocrisy is it?  It's about looking after your own.

Of course the EU will look after EU member's interests, why wouldn't they?

I'm not sure how you think what I'm saying is hypocritical in any way, it's merely a statement of fact.  They are in a position of immense strength, we aren't.  I hope they are flexible, I really do, but we will have to pay for it.

As for the single market?  It won't happen without freedom of movement. The government seems intent on ending freedom of movement and having 'control' of immigration.  A silly position, because we've always had control on over half of our immigration and have never managed it, but there you go.
So, given this, I think it's highly unlikely we will remain part of the single market, madness if we dont, but I don't see how we can possibly achieve it.