Author Topic: Elections in Europe  (Read 166712 times)

Offline Redcap

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #440 on: April 25, 2017, 10:35:03 pm »
TBF, I dont know what a far left actually stands for, but arent the "lefts" considered more "global" as opposed to the far right, who are nationalists?

If both of them stand on the nationalist spectrum of sentiment, then how is someone who wants more globalisation, and more expansion, called?

It's more a question of how the fruits of globalisation are distributed, for 'far-leftists', I think.

I was listening to a Freakonomics podcast yesterday, where one left wing labour economist was talking about using the wealth garnered from globalisation to pay for a guaranteed basic income. That's more the kind of thing I would expect to see.

I think the matter of sovereignty is important as well. For example, a lot of opponents of the Transpacific Partnership in Australia were unhappy at how the terms of the agreement would have eroded the basic tenets of Australia's healthcare system. This is the kind of place where you will get some political accord between populist anti-globalisation sentiments, and 'far left' candidates.

Offline leroy

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #441 on: April 26, 2017, 08:06:30 am »
For example, a lot of opponents of the Transpacific Partnership in Australia were unhappy at how the terms of the agreement would have eroded the basic tenets of Australia's healthcare system.

Yeah we don't need any foreign types coming in to screw up our health care system.  The Australian right is perfectly capable of that all by itself thank you very much.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #442 on: April 26, 2017, 11:53:25 am »
Nice article on the rise of the anti-populists in Europe:

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2017/04/25/rise-of-europe-s-antipopulists-pub-68764

Offline Garrus

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #443 on: April 27, 2017, 03:00:31 pm »

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #444 on: April 28, 2017, 03:35:18 pm »


Only 23% of people in this country certain that having a non-fascist in power in France would be good for Britain.  :o

Offline Danny Boys Dad

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #445 on: April 28, 2017, 03:38:22 pm »
Yougov must do their polls on the same group of people that the BBC use for question time audiences
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Offline Zimagic

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #446 on: April 28, 2017, 04:20:26 pm »
Polling hovering in or around 60% to 40% in Macron's favour so he should see it through but it's horrible that 2 in 5 are even considering voting for a facist.

Some really thick-headed justification going on too. The number of people who have said to me they'd vote for LePen because "they couldn't vote for Macron" (which is fine) and that people "need to get LePen out of their system or she'll be back stronger in 5 years". What, what?!

Sure! Vote the facist into power for 5 years, it's the best way to defeat them in the next election!
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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #447 on: April 28, 2017, 04:28:17 pm »
Polling hovering in or around 60% to 40% in Macron's favour so he should see it through but it's horrible that 2 in 5 are even considering voting for a facist.

The polls are remarkably consistent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017#Macron.E2.80.93Le_Pen

As they were for the first round - turned out it wasn't because of "herding", but was simply due to accuracy.

Some really thick-headed justification going on too. The number of people who have said to me they'd vote for LePen because "they couldn't vote for Macron" (which is fine) and that people "need to get LePen out of their system or she'll be back stronger in 5 years". What, what?!

Sure! Vote the facist into power for 5 years, it's the best way to defeat them in the next election!

Ridiculous. They couldn't vote for a moderate, centrist instead of a fascist? The fuck is wrong with people?

Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #448 on: April 28, 2017, 05:33:49 pm »
Only 23% of people in this country certain that having a non-fascist in power in France would be good for Britain.  :o

I guess you could argue that it would be good for Britain if the EU fell apart. Though I'm guessing those 23% had something else in mind.

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #449 on: April 28, 2017, 05:44:23 pm »
Who did Eleanor of Aquitaine vote for?

Macron

Offline Garrus

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #450 on: April 28, 2017, 05:46:30 pm »
But how is an ultra nationalist leader going to be good for Britain either? These people campaign against the other and once it's all said and done, it's going to be hugs and kisses between every strongman leader in the world?

Offline Garrus

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #451 on: April 28, 2017, 05:47:24 pm »

Ridiculous. They couldn't vote for a moderate, centrist instead of a fascist? The fuck is wrong with people?
The hard left are happy to be the useful idiots for the far right.

Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #452 on: April 28, 2017, 05:55:40 pm »
The hard left are happy to be the useful idiots for the far right.

Who said these people are hard left? As has been mentioned before, more than twice as many Fillon's voters are switching to Le Pen than Melenchon and Hamon's put together.

Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #453 on: April 28, 2017, 09:21:22 pm »
I guess you could argue that it would be good for Britain if the EU fell apart. Though I'm guessing those 23% had something else in mind.

It could be that the EU will be reinvigorated with a pro-EU Macron and pro-EU German chancellor leading the EU's response to Brexit.

It will be interesting to see the attitude to Brexit from EU leaders after the French election. A snap British election could have just been opportunism...or it could have been in anticipation of less than ideal negotiations.
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Offline killer-heels

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Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #456 on: May 2, 2017, 06:06:08 pm »
Here we go:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/02/majority-of-melenchon-supporters-will-not-back-emmanuel-macron-poll-finds

Headline: News Organisation Fearmongers For Headlines

20% of last election's voters: 1/3 voting for Macron, 1/3 not turning out, 1/3 spoiling ballot.

Everyone panic!
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Offline TheShanklyGates

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #457 on: May 2, 2017, 06:10:44 pm »
Macron was still polling at around 60% last time I checked. Surely that's too big a gap? The polls were pretty damn accurate for the first round of voting.
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Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #458 on: May 2, 2017, 07:20:11 pm »
Headline: News Organisation Fearmongers For Headlines

Indeed. A third of Fillon's voters (ordinary, middle-of-the-road, centre-right) plan to vote for Le Pen, as opposed to virtually no Melenchon voters, and yet we get the negative headlines about the so-called far left.

They should have a look at their voting system if they want to avoid voter apathy in the second round, more than half of the voters have seen their first choice eliminated.

Offline Zimagic

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #459 on: May 2, 2017, 08:08:33 pm »
Indeed. A third of Fillon's voters (ordinary, middle-of-the-road, centre-right) plan to vote for Le Pen, as opposed to virtually no Melenchon voters.

I know a few unfortunately.

What I can't get is how much Macron is reviled to the point that people would either not vote or vote for the extreme right. You try to talk about it and they have nothing to say, just that he's an "ultra-liberal" or "high finance" but no real idea of what he says he stands for. It's almost that the idea of him is so terrible that the detail is too horrible to contemplate so let's vote for LePen!

I'm not a Macron supporter per se but there's really no choice to be made here. You just can't vote for LePen.
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Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #460 on: May 2, 2017, 08:16:06 pm »
You just can't vote for LePen.

Indeed, and all those abstaining or spoiling their ballots won't. So where's the outrage about a third of Fillon's voters who will?

Offline classycarra

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #461 on: May 2, 2017, 08:23:45 pm »
Indeed, and all those abstaining or spoiling their ballots won't. So where's the outrage about a third of Fillon's voters who will?

Outrage could surely only be expected from those who struggle to analyse or empathise. One third of voters for a right-leaning candidate voting for a right wing candidate should surprise little to noone.

As for those 65% percent abstaining or spoiling their ballots, I hope they feel pure and lovely and heroic if they allow Le Pen to win power. If those numbers generalise to the 7 million Melanchon voters, Le Pen must be laughing her arse off. Just like Jill Stein voters (particularly idiotic) and 'never Hilary' democrats, they will have done their bit to allow a right wing head of state in their country.

Some people are so afraid of making difficult decisions in unideal votes that they end up masochistic

Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #462 on: May 2, 2017, 08:32:01 pm »
Outrage could surely only be expected from those who struggle to analyse or empathise. One third of voters for a right-leaning candidate voting for a right wing candidate should surprise little to noone.

But we have repeatedly been told that far left voters voting for a far right candidate should suprise no one either. So why the outrage?

As for those 65% percent abstaining or spoiling their ballots, I hope they feel pure and lovely and heroic if they allow Le Pen to win power. If those numbers generalise to the 7 million Melanchon voters, Le Pen must be laughing her arse off. Just like Jill Stein voters (particularly idiotic) and 'never Hilary' democrats, they will have done their bit to allow a right wing head of state in their country.

Only it won't happen, as Le Pen won't come anywhere near to being elected.

Offline classycarra

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #463 on: May 2, 2017, 08:39:03 pm »
But we have repeatedly been told that far left voters voting for a far right candidate should suprise no one either. So why the outrage?

Probably because most people are by now aware that the far right are c*nts, but a fair few have been late to realise that the far left are too.

I think their moral/'principled' high-horsing works on those who aren't inclined to concentrate on politics all that much.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #464 on: May 2, 2017, 08:50:36 pm »
But we have repeatedly been told that far left voters voting for a far right candidate should suprise no one either. So why the outrage?

Well, Melenchon voters would claim to be progressives I assume. But when given a chance to vote for a liberal, progressive candidate (albeit one more market-oriented than them) over a racist, anti-semitic fascist, many of them will refuse to do so. What other conclusion can we draw that the far left and far right in fact have a lot in common than they claim?

Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #465 on: May 2, 2017, 08:55:41 pm »
Well, Melenchon voters would claim to be progressives I assume. But when given a chance to vote for a liberal, progressive candidate (albeit one more market-oriented than them) over a racist, anti-semitic fascist, many of them will refuse to do so. What other conclusion can we draw that the far left and far right in fact have a lot in common than they claim?

I think if they had a lot in common, they'd vote for the far right candidate, don't you?

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #466 on: May 2, 2017, 08:59:16 pm »
Am seeing a lot of angst amongst commentators and the twitterati about the run-off on Sunday.

It's true that Macron's lead is slightly lower than just before and just after the first round. But it's very steady now at 60-40 and given the performance of the polls in predicting the first round result, there's surely no reason to doubt they are that wrong this time?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

People worry of course about turnout and abstensions. However, the same was said in the first round, when polls indicated Macron's supporters were less committed than Le Pen's. And yet if anything, Macron's lead over Le Pen was greater than the final pre-voting polls suggested.


Also, some interesting data from Opinion Way:

Although Le Pen offered to make Dupont-Aignan her PM, more of his supporters will vote for Macron:



And twice as many first round abstainers will vote for Macron as Le Pen:






Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #467 on: May 2, 2017, 10:27:24 pm »
Here we go:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/02/majority-of-melenchon-supporters-will-not-back-emmanuel-macron-poll-finds

Like the Jill Stein voters in the U.S. election, who refused to vote for Clinton. A sense of personal ideological purity is fine in theory, but isn't applicable in the real world

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #468 on: May 2, 2017, 10:58:26 pm »
Even Yanis Varoufakis on Newsnight saying it's crazy for any so-called "leftist" not to support Macron.

Everyone supported Chirac who was far to the right of Macron, yet now many happy to not actively vote against a fascist?

Offline Yorkykopite

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #469 on: May 3, 2017, 04:15:41 pm »
Zizek tells the Left NOT to vote for Macron. http://www.independent.co.uk/author/slavoj-zizek

Racism and anti-semitism and extreme nationalism, apparently, are not actually big problems. Certainly not big enough to provoke enough disgust in Zizek to vote against them.
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Offline Ray K

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #470 on: May 3, 2017, 05:08:11 pm »
Zizek tells the Left NOT to vote for Macron. http://www.independent.co.uk/author/slavoj-zizek

Racism and anti-semitism and extreme nationalism, apparently, are not actually big problems. Certainly not big enough to provoke enough disgust in Zizek to vote against them.

Zizek has always been a pseudo-intellectual useful idiot. That he's come out for Trump and Le Pen has been the least surprising thing about this past year.
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Offline BoRed

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #471 on: May 3, 2017, 05:12:27 pm »
Zizek has always been a pseudo-intellectual useful idiot. That he's come out for Trump and Le Pen has been the least surprising thing about this past year.

He hasn't, though. He is telling people to abstain. It's idiotic, but not quite the same.

Offline Danny Boys Dad

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #472 on: May 3, 2017, 05:13:40 pm »
He hasn't, though. He is telling people to abstain. It's idiotic, but not quite the same.

If it means that Le Pen gets in then the effect is the same and he must know that.
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Offline Yorkykopite

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #473 on: May 3, 2017, 05:50:37 pm »
If it means that Le Pen gets in then the effect is the same and he must know that.

Everything is an academic exercise for Zizek. He enjoys the dialectics for their own sake. Nothing really matters. It couldn't do otherwise he would advise French voters to do the decent thing and vote against Le Pen. The giveaway in the quoted article is his failure to ask what might happen if the Le Pen wins the election in France. He's simply not bothered with that question which can only mean one of two things. Either (i) that secretly he hopes enough people WILL actually vote for Macron and stop fascism for him. Or (ii) politics are of no interest to him and he simply doesn't care about what happens to the poorest and most vulnerable.

There might be a third possibility, which is that Zizek is actually sympathetic to fascism. But there's no evidence of that so far as I can see. He doesn't see fascism as particularly dangerous or particularly objectionable. But he doesn't actually say anything positive in favour of the ideology.

In many ways he resembles the Far Left in many liberal democracies in as much as the Far Left tends to take a neutral ground when it comes to liberalism v fascism, NATO v Russia, and even ISIS v the USA (see Corbyn on this). There's always a bit of throat-clearing along the lines of "I don't like Putin" or "Obviously ISIS are brutal" or "I'm not keen on Le Pen" before the meat of the argument is presented...."But NATO is just as bad", "but American imperialism is even worse", "but Macron is the real cause of the sickness in France."  All this is intellectually bankrupt of course and faced with the threat of extreme Right-Wing ideology represents the politics of appeasement and surrender. But it's surprisingly widespread.
« Last Edit: May 3, 2017, 05:52:20 pm by Yorkykopite »
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Offline Johnny B. Goode

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #474 on: May 3, 2017, 11:45:33 pm »
Couldn't watch it but general consensus is that Le Pen got rekt in the debate tonight. She's always been a poor debater anyway, but glad that message hit home.

Macron the most convincing for 63% and Le Pen 34% according to a poll. He wins in every department (most understanding of the people's plight, best project for France, Melenchon and Fillon voters etc)

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Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #475 on: May 4, 2017, 01:33:37 am »
Indeed. A third of Fillon's voters (ordinary, middle-of-the-road, centre-right) plan to vote for Le Pen, as opposed to virtually no Melenchon voters, and yet we get the negative headlines about the so-called far left.

They should have a look at their voting system if they want to avoid voter apathy in the second round, more than half of the voters have seen their first choice eliminated.

Alternative Vote system would be an improvement where people can indicate who their second choice is on their original ballot.
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Offline Garrus

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #476 on: May 4, 2017, 02:47:08 am »
Couldn't watch it but general consensus is that Le Pen got rekt in the debate tonight. She's always been a poor debater anyway, but glad that message hit home.

Macron the most convincing for 63% and Le Pen 34% according to a poll. He wins in every department (most understanding of the people's plight, best project for France, Melenchon and Fillon voters etc)

It's in the bag lads
You wouldn't know it from Twitter. Seems like an alternative universe full of alt-right fucktards.

Let's hope that the positive reaction from the debate translates into actual votes on Sunday.


Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #477 on: May 4, 2017, 03:43:23 am »
You wouldn't know it from Twitter. Seems like an alternative universe full of alt-right fucktards.

Let's hope that the positive reaction from the debate translates into actual votes on Sunday.

I really do wish that people would not use the suffix 'tard' in portmanteaus or use it all. I hear enough of that crap in the US (the use of 'Libtard' seems to be completely acceptable by half the population, even in supposedly polite conversation). And, much of the medical profession over here still uses 'retarded' (only officially superseded in DSM-5 in 2013). So, yeah. Please don't use words like 'fucktard', 'Libtard', 'retard' or 'tard'. It kinda destroys any argument you might make (even if your interlocutor happens to agree with your point).
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Offline Garrus

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #478 on: May 4, 2017, 05:26:29 am »
Point taken. Apologies.

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #479 on: May 4, 2017, 05:32:29 am »
Point taken. Apologies.

Thanks Garrus. Your response is greatly appreciated. Especially as I probably sounded quite pompous in my last post.
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