Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17  (Read 252457 times)

Offline Alanslad

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #160 on: September 23, 2016, 04:06:34 pm »
Great roundup of the possibilities there. Thanks Nessy.

Offline Hij

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #161 on: September 23, 2016, 04:21:32 pm »
Nice one Nessy


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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #162 on: September 23, 2016, 09:16:45 pm »
Good stuff, thanks Nessy

By the way APLT fans (İNessy), you might get some extra treats this weekend from one of your own  ;)

Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #163 on: September 24, 2016, 12:44:53 pm »
Hello everyone,

I've recently been developing an automated APLT spreadsheet that offers the ability to give me/us more flexibility to the data we usually get. I've been pm'ing with the Prof and he's graciously helped me and given me the green light to contribute to this amazing thread of his.

So what can I offer:
  • For starters I'll try and offer frequent updates over the course of the weekend for those impatient ones (you know who you are) who can't wait until the round of games is over. So that means I'll update on the Fridays/Saturdays if the table has changed. The Prof will provide his usual info at the end of the round (won't do it today as all the major players play today and the Prof will no doubt update later today).
  • I'll be able to add/remove teams at a moment's notice for those of you who are curious to see their inclusion.
  • Finally, I'm currently working on changing the par allocation scores and benchmark values. This is pretty much finished but needs testing. I know over the years you guys have wanted to change the score values or the targets for one reason or another so let me know what you would like to see and I'll try and crunch the numbers for you.
Without further ado, I've included Everton in the chart below as per some of your requests. As per the Prof I will try and keep the colours as close to the team colours as possible. With that in mind I have gone with their best ever away kit  ;)



And here's a table of the top APLT teams as of today before kick-off.






« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 02:13:33 pm by JCB »

Offline Art of Lies

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #164 on: September 24, 2016, 12:47:57 pm »
I am no Nessy and you can hardly call one or two sentence a preview but when looking at the next 4 fixtures Liverpool face it is worth pointing out that we only gained 4 points from the equivalent games last year. Given the way the team is playing at the moment this is likely to mean that the results comparison discussion and hopefully the APL will look a lot healthier than it did compared to last years results in these fixtures.
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Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #165 on: September 24, 2016, 12:49:36 pm »
Good work JCB, particularly with Everton's colours!  ;D I'm interested to see how your new points system works however I'm wary of changing something that has worked so well in the past.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #166 on: September 24, 2016, 01:04:05 pm »
I am no Nessy and you can hardly call one or two sentence a preview but when looking at the next 4 fixtures Liverpool face it is worth pointing out that we only gained 4 points from the equivalent games last year. Given the way the team is playing at the moment this is likely to mean that the results comparison discussion and hopefully the APL will look a lot healthier than it did compared to last years results in these fixtures.
5 of the next 6 are par 3s for the APLT though, only Swansea away is a par 1 and our only chance of gaining points in the APLT in that time. If we're above the -2 mark after these 6 matches we've done really well I think.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #167 on: September 24, 2016, 01:06:16 pm »
Nicely done JCB  :D

Good work JCB, particularly with Everton's colours!  ;D I'm interested to see how your new points system works however I'm wary of changing something that has worked so well in the past.

The idea isn't to change the model, but to allow us to look at alternative approaches to identifying the par scores.  For me to do it, it would take a long time, and no doubt have human error factored in.  JCB has used a an approach which inlcudes sourcing the data from a website, so he can run different models in a short amount of time.  This is purely to add to the discussion.  If in time we see a better approach to the model, we can adapt it.

One thing I'm keen to see is if we can develop something which looks at the relegation battle with a trend line to zero approach (which was the driver behind me developing the APLT in the first place).  I'd also like to see what it would look like with a PPG value (to two decimal places) which is the same for all home matched and one for all away matches to reflect the average PPG gained by league winners.

Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #168 on: September 24, 2016, 01:07:27 pm »
Good work JCB, particularly with Everton's colours!  ;D I'm interested to see how your new points system works however I'm wary of changing something that has worked so well in the past.

Thanks. The thing is I agree with you. The Prof's model is simple and elegant and does the job. However every year someone always has some idea of tweaking the points system. I'll no doubt run the models and realise that they are not as good but at least we'll know for sure.

FYI, my spreadsheet can allow for anything up to 3 group allocations (both home and away) whereas the current one only allow for 2 away (par 3 & 1) and 1 at home.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 01:11:57 pm by JCB »

Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #169 on: September 24, 2016, 01:16:37 pm »
Thanks. The thing is I agree with you. The Prof's model is simple and elegant and does the job. However every year someone always has some idea of tweaking the points system. I'll no doubt run the models and realise that they are not as good but at least we'll know for sure.

FYI, my spreadsheet can allow for anything up to 3 group allocations (both home and away) whereas the current one only allow for 2 away (par 3 & 1) and 1 at home.


Yep the simplicity of Prof's model is a big part of what makes it so good.  Whatever you come up with there will always be someone who thinks they have a better idea but I'm looking forward to seeing what you produce anyway.
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Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #170 on: September 24, 2016, 01:34:30 pm »
Personally, I'm not particularly interested in changing the score system too much  :)
I initially created the spreadsheet to help automate the graphs for all teams at a moments notice.

The Prof asked about adding that functionality as it was something that could be done quite easily on my spreadsheet. We will probably run several models and then realise that the Prof had it right all along.  ;D
I have no idea what point systems would particularly improve his model, but am happy to run it for anyone that has an opinion on the matter.

Also as Prof has said we can look at other parts of the table (ie relegation areas) which would require changing the par scores and groups
« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 01:37:06 pm by JCB »

Offline Cohiba

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #171 on: September 24, 2016, 01:47:08 pm »
Oh wow, one of the best threads on RAWK has just got even better! Exciting times indeed. Huge thanks to both Prof and JCB for this interesting development. I am intrigued and excited on what developments this will bring, certainly many points for intense discussion!  ;D
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #172 on: September 24, 2016, 02:11:55 pm »
Well done, JCB. Great work on the automation. Is it possible to sort the team legend to match the order in the APLT league please?

Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #173 on: September 24, 2016, 02:36:48 pm »
Well done, JCB. Great work on the automation. Is it possible to sort the team legend to match the order in the APLT league please?

They're a fussy bunch these lot Prof  ;)

The sheet is pretty much all automated and the teams are dynamic so it's not as simple as it sounds. I'll have to change the Plot order for each series on the chart so as to change the legend itself. I'll have a look into it. Everything is possible with VBA so I won't say no, but it won't be high in my list of priorities.

Edit: In normal circumstances all you need to do is a data sort on the table's last row before creating the chart which would easily solve this. However my code was designed to also work with incomplete rounds of games so if for example Man city hasn't played their game for that week yet, that field will be blank and they will end up on the bottom of the sort/legend.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 07:21:52 pm by JCB »

Offline Art of Lies

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #174 on: September 24, 2016, 03:03:07 pm »
They're a fussy bunch these lot Prof  ;)

I blame expectations, you come along with your fancy spreadsheets and what else do you expect? This wouldn't of happened if you had calculated it all by hand on the back of a envelope each time and fired up MS paint to "visualise" the results. :P

But more seriously it is amazing how far things have come in my lifetime when it comes to fan analysis of the game we love.
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #175 on: September 24, 2016, 07:38:26 pm »



Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #176 on: September 24, 2016, 07:44:17 pm »
Is it possible to sort the team legend to match the order in the APLT league please?
Not without redesigning the graph all over again which isn't all that short a job.  I can change the order of each series in the data selection section, but not the legend itself.  If you know how, please let me know.  :wave

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #177 on: September 24, 2016, 08:03:24 pm »
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #178 on: September 24, 2016, 08:32:38 pm »
Damn, City...

Next week we can gain a +2 at the Swans, and city can go +8 if they beat Spurs away. Would that be a new APLT record?
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Offline Mr_Shane

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #179 on: September 24, 2016, 08:34:34 pm »
Spurs vs city is the big one though. One of our rivals is dropping points there. We just need to make sure we win.

Everton also have a tough one vs palace

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #180 on: September 24, 2016, 10:47:45 pm »
Not without redesigning the graph all over again which isn't all that short a job.  I can change the order of each series in the data selection section, but not the legend itself.  If you know how, please let me know.  :wave

If your data is set in a table with teams in rows and weeks in columns then all you have to do is sort the table by last column after you've inputted the figures. The legend should automatically adjust itself.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 10:50:08 pm by JCB »

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #181 on: September 24, 2016, 10:49:19 pm »
Damn, City...

Next week we can gain a +2 at the Swans, and city can go +8 if they beat Spurs away. Would that be a new APLT record?

I think so, the highest  I recall is +7 but never this early. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Offline rscanderlech

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #182 on: September 24, 2016, 10:56:28 pm »
I think so, the highest  I recall is +7 but never this early. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
It would surely be more impressive to do that later in the season rather than this early? Presently they still have the ability to drop a lot of APLT points and not finish with 97 points in the actual table.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #183 on: September 24, 2016, 11:04:04 pm »
If your data is set in a table with teams in rows and weeks in columns then all you have to do is sort the table by last column after you've inputted the figures. The legend should automatically adjust itself.
I was trying to sort it earlier.  I'll look again tomorrow.

Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #184 on: September 25, 2016, 01:48:08 am »
Hello everyone,

I've recently been developing an automated APLT spreadsheet that offers the ability to give me/us more flexibility to the data we usually get. I've been pm'ing with the Prof and he's graciously helped me and given me the green light to contribute to this amazing thread of his.


Very cool.  Looking forward to seeing what comes out of this. 

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #185 on: September 25, 2016, 03:02:46 am »
Let me begin by saying i love this thread!

There's one "idea" i've always had, but don't know if it's any good/too much work, but since we're taking requests now!

It's a long way away, but at the half way stage, would it be any good re+calibrating this with the pars matching up to the table positions at that point? Leicester being a par 3 last season for example.

It could get rid of some teams having unexpectedly good/shite seasons throwing it off a little.


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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #186 on: September 25, 2016, 07:53:59 am »
There is a danger we end up with alternative alternative premier league tables  ;)

I think in the first instance, it makes sense to look at previous seasons and the impact that tweaks to the model would have.  Otherwise there is a temptation to adapt it to show what you want it to show rather than maintaining a level of objectivity.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #187 on: September 25, 2016, 11:12:50 am »
Let me begin by saying i love this thread!

There's one "idea" i've always had, but don't know if it's any good/too much work, but since we're taking requests now!

It's a long way away, but at the half way stage, would it be any good re+calibrating this with the pars matching up to the table positions at that point? Leicester being a par 3 last season for example.

It could get rid of some teams having unexpectedly good/shite seasons throwing it off a little.

If you mean retrospectively changing the par score then yes. It's both easy to do and might be worth a try.

There is a danger we end up with alternative alternative premier league tables  ;)

I think in the first instance, it makes sense to look at previous seasons and the impact that tweaks to the model would have.  Otherwise there is a temptation to adapt it to show what you want it to show rather than maintaining a level of objectivity.

Agree. I'm also wary of railroading this thread by cluttering/confusing it with too many alternative alternatives.


Moving on, I've run the spreadsheet this morning and included Everton. Beginning of their slide hopefully. Thier introduction to the APLT may well be shortlived  :)


Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #188 on: September 25, 2016, 11:21:38 am »
Everton's inclusion is suddenly looking very premature  ;D It's good to see they've been below us for the entire season though
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Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #189 on: September 25, 2016, 11:31:57 am »
Are Man City going to break the graph? How much higher can they go?

Offline Blinis

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #190 on: September 25, 2016, 11:43:13 am »
Are Man City going to break the graph? How much higher can they go?

+24 is the highest surplus possible in the APLT. They will be battling the Spurs, so probably reach +8, but I can't see them going higher.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #191 on: September 25, 2016, 03:02:32 pm »
City haven't really met real opposition in the league yet. Even Utd, as they were shite (they always are but..) May spurs next will test them properly. This means that they could potentially be in a false comfort zone at the moment. No way Pep has worked so much magic in so short a time.
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Offline Fluke

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #192 on: September 26, 2016, 03:17:01 am »
An idea I had a few years ago was having the APLT pars be rolling live. By that I mean, rather than final position from the previous season, taking the 38 previous rounds (e.g. Round 6 last year until Round 5 this year).  Calculating the league position based on those results, and applying pars on a rolling basis, week to week.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2016, 03:18:38 am by Fluke »
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #193 on: September 26, 2016, 04:30:04 am »
An idea I had a few years ago was having the APLT pars be rolling live. By that I mean, rather than final position from the previous season, taking the 38 previous rounds (e.g. Round 6 last year until Round 5 this year).  Calculating the league position based on those results, and applying pars on a rolling basis, week to week.
Then won't every team end with a different total par score, defeating the purpose of the table?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #194 on: September 26, 2016, 04:51:57 am »
Then won't every team end with a different total par score, defeating the purpose of the table?

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I don't understand? 

If I've understood you correctly, no I don't think so.  Every team will have the same total par, it's just, instead of Leicester being 1st in the par rankings, it would be Arsenal (or whoever) based on the first few weeks replacing early weeks from last season.
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Offline Fluke

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #195 on: September 26, 2016, 04:53:00 am »
The rolling APLT would reflect the most recent form table in a way, rather than just the previous season's.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #196 on: September 26, 2016, 04:59:05 am »
I don't understand? 

If I've understood you correctly, no I don't think so.  Every team will have the same total par, it's just, instead of Leicester being 1st in the par rankings, it would be Arsenal (or whoever) based on the first few weeks replacing early weeks from last season.
I'm pretty sure that would change total par. Leicester might be a par 1 for one team amd a par 3 for another

I don't think it would balance out.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #197 on: September 26, 2016, 05:41:56 am »
Spurs vs city is the big one though. One of our rivals is dropping points there. We just need to make sure we win.

Everton also have a tough one vs palace

Everton? Seriously?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #198 on: September 26, 2016, 09:08:12 am »
I'm pretty sure that would change total par. Leicester might be a par 1 for one team amd a par 3 for another

I don't think it would balance out.
Wait, I think I might get what you are saying.  Are you saying DURING a round, there will be differences because team A might be 7th but after another team wins they become 8th in the par rankings and change from a par 1 away to a par 3, before another team plays them that round?

I guess the way to account for that is to lock the table until the game week matches are all complete?
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2016-17
« Reply #199 on: September 26, 2016, 09:15:27 am »
It's actually fairly unusual for a lot of teams to swap from par one to par three over the course of a full season. The trad table at the end of the previous season is probably still more of a realistic guide than the table six weeks into the new campaign.
It's a lot of extra work just to offset two or at most four shifts.
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