APLT Preview -
The title race is either hotting up or it's all over bar the shouting, depending on who you listen to, but it's an interesting weekend-and-most-of-the-following-week for the APLT.
With nobody of consequence playing in the league on Saturday, the APLT action begins on Sunday lunchtime as Manchester United travel to Burnley. After a positive start to the season, racking up wins over Liverpool and Everton and holding Manchester United to a draw at Old Trafford, the wheels seem to have come off the Claret wagon, and they are currently on a run of just one win in ten league games. Burnley are a far better prospect at their home ground, with an impressive 10 wins from 16 making them the 6th best side in the league on home form, contrasting with their terrible travels where the draw at Old Trafford constituting a full quarter of ALL the points they have gained on the road. United are depleted after their exertions in the Europa League, and with talismanic striker Ibrahimovic joining more or less their entire defence on the bench, they could have a difficult afternoon in trying to maintain their current -17 standing. Despite the Claret's rich vein of home form (they have 2 more points from 16 games played at Turf Moor than United have from 17 at Old Trafford) this is a Par 3 game for the Red Devils. It is one they should win, with Burnley virtually assured Premier League survival while they are chasing down a Champions League spot, the visitors should at least be the more motivated side here.
Burnley v Manchester United (Par 3)
Burnley win: MNU -20
Draw: MNU -18
Man Utd win: MNU -17
Following that match, Liverpool host Crystal Palace at Anfield. Matches between these two are rarely dull, from the late-80s swashbuckling 9-0 demolition, to the 5-0 smashing in 92 or the 6-1 pounding in 94. But things have not always gone Liverpool's way, Palace have had revenge in games like the notorious "Crystanbul" 3-3 match, when Brendan Rodgers side set out to close down the goal difference gap to Manchester City and ended up conceding thrice, which was ultimately hugely damaging to the Reds' title hopes in 2014. Palace have actually won 3 of the 5 league meetings of the two since that day.
On this season's form, Palace are not to be taken lightly either, with the 8th best away record in the Premier League (P16 W5 D3 L8). They will be without loanee Mama Sakho who has rapidly made himself a vital fixture in their back line, but forward Christian Benteke had a good record against the Reds before moving to the club, and now may have something of a point to prove. Liverpool may also be without several key defenders, with Joe Gomez possibly getting the nod for a return to action in a central defensive role.
As a home game, it's a Par 3 for the Reds, who are already 6 points better off than last season in the trad table. A win would put Jurgen Klopp's men just 2 points behind Tottenham Hotspur, having played 2 more.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Liverpool win: LFC -13
Draw: LFC -15
Palace win: LFC -16
Then ahead to Tuesday, where leaders Chelsea will entertain Southampton at Stamford Bridge. Any slip up here will undoubtedly signal a media melt down, with Chelsea's strong position being heavily downplayed in favour of the drama of a late surge by Spurs. (A "Spurge", if you will.) In reality, it's hard to see anyone catching Chelsea now, and Spurs simply aren't very good at that sort of thing. Southampton are not to be taken lightly, however. They have a similar away form to Palace, although they are essentially only playing for the chance to beat Watford to 9th place at this point. They have taken just 2 points from games against the top 6 in the league this season, but showed in their EPL Cup run that they can surprise.
It's a par 3 match for Chelsea, who can extend their trad table lead to 7 points with a win.
Chelsea v Southampton
Chelsea win: CHE +1
Draw: CHE -1
Saints win: CHE -2
Wednesday night sees Arsenal take on Champions Leicester City. The Gunners are by all accounts, in full-on crisis mode at this point, and anything could happen here. The Trad table has them 7 points from 4th (albeit with a game in hand) and the APLT has them 5 behind. All they can do for now is try to beat Leicester. But that's not as easy as it was. Leicester have 5 wins and a draw from their last 7 in the Premier League, and having been eliminated from the Champions League, the game against Arsenal is the first of 3 glamour fixtures in their run-in as champions, with Spurs and Man City to come. Anything but a win for Arsenal and the Champions League will be nothing but a memory for both sides next season. And it's a Par 3 for Arsenal.
Arsenal v Leicester City (Par 3)
Arsenal win: ARS -18
Draw: ARS -20
Leicester win: LEI -21
Spurs also visit Palace on Wednesday night. Sakho should be back, and rested, for this one. It's a simple job for Spurs. They want to win, either to close the gap to Chelsea, or just to stay mathematically in contention. Otherwise, they might need to start looking over their shoulders. Spurs currently sit on a run of 7 consecutive wins, their best such run in recent history. If they can extend that run then they will at least be answering the criticism that they failed to put together enough winning runs of games to really challenge last season. It's a Par 3 match for Spurs, with games against Arsenal and Manchester United on the horizon, it's one they will definitely need to win.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur (Par 3)
Palace win: SPU - 8
Draw: SPU -7
Spurs win: SPU -5
Finally, Thursday sees the Manchester derby arrive at last. As two sets of gobby fans with nasal accents and nervous sisters gather to watch their teams not fight it out for the Premier League title, like everyone predicted. Mourinho v Guardiola is now a bigger fixture than these two once-great clubs, and most of the coverage will probably be over off-field matters, which is probably just as well as both sides are playing like they think the pitch is covered in dogshit. A classic for fans of the beautiful game? Of course it is. That's why it's on a Thursday. And at stake? A place in next season's Thursday cup, no less! Whoever loses here will be declared unfit for top flight continental competition.
In reality, of course, the trad table shows this as a close race, but the APLT has it more or less sewn up in City's favour, with a win here possibly opening the APLT gap to 13 points between the two, dependent on United's result at Burnley. United's game in hand may start to look less of the advantage people assume it to be and more of an albatross as the fixtures pile up from here on in. The APLT table tells you all you need to know about the form of these two, but for the record:
City have 30 points from 15 home games (W8 D6) while United have 30 points from 14 away games (W9 D3)
Whatever the result of the Manchester derby, Liverpool will be the real beneficiaries. Which is a lovely thing.
Manchester City v Manchester United (Par 3 for City, Par 1 for United)
City win: MNC -10, MNU* -23, -21, -20
Draw: MNC -12, MNU* -20, -18, -17
United win: MNC -13, MNU* -18, -16, -15
