Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[Red-Soldier]

We are screwed unless the Tories do a massive u-turn and I can't see that happening.

May could quite easily make a case saying that she tried the Brexit route, found out it was shit, gonna send the country down the pan etc...and that she has decided for the good of the country/economy to bin it.

That will not happen though.

[kavah]

I think these sums will be hard for the EU to justify. Their financial accounts have always received an adverse opinion by their auditors because of the significant errors.

We're not going to fill their black holes for them.

Iain Begg (LSE, EU finance expert) thinks the FT's sums are sound. Of course what we agree to pay to stay in the common market will be a game of brinksmanship - since we are on the hook in terms of international law.

[Dr. Beaker]

We are screwed unless the Tories do a massive u-turn and I can't see that happening.

May could quite easily make a case saying that she tried the Brexit route, found out it was shit, gonna send the country down the pan etc...and that she has decided for the good of the country/economy to bin it.

That will not happen though.

I think one way or another that is where we are heading (and the polls will give it the green light) and May has known all along. By playing it the way she has, the culprits are going to take the full rap - but it really will be meltdown day for the tories - almost on a par with what the Labour party are going through though their problems aren't going to be resolved by the removal of one man, it will be a very bloody civil war. Fingers crossed anyway.

[MOZ]

I still think it will never happen, especially now Tusk has confirmed we can reverse our decision at any time after pulling the A50 trigger.

We have already had a glimpse of how shit it will be and we now have at least two and a half years to change our minds. By then, we will know the exact terms and it will be put to a parliamentary vote before the 2 year deadline.

The longer it goes on, the more people will wish it had never happened and more and more will be comfortable with the idea of staying. The EU will have also confirmed their planned reforms by then, so the bigger picture will have also changed.

If we decide to stay, it will also give the economy a massive boost in the run up to the elections which could benefit the Tories.

[Libertine]

I still think it will never happen, especially now Tusk has confirmed we can reverse our decision at any time after pulling the A50 trigger.

We have already had a glimpse of how shit it will be and we now have at least two and a half years to change our minds. By then, we will know the exact terms and it will be put to a parliamentary vote before the 2 year deadline.

The longer it goes on, the more people will wish it had never happened and more and more will be comfortable with the idea of staying. The EU will have also confirmed their planned reforms by then, so the bigger picture will have also changed.

If we decide to stay, it will also give the economy a massive boost in the run up to the elections which could benefit the Tories.

I wonder if they might eventually offer another referendum ("let the people decide" etc etc) on Hard Brexit terms (with all the costs associated) or the status quo of EU memberships. Be fun to go through all this again....

[west_london_red]

I still think it will never happen, especially now Tusk has confirmed we can reverse our decision at any time after pulling the A50 trigger.

We have already had a glimpse of how shit it will be and we now have at least two and a half years to change our minds. By then, we will know the exact terms and it will be put to a parliamentary vote before the 2 year deadline.

The longer it goes on, the more people will wish it had never happened and more and more will be comfortable with the idea of staying. The EU will have also confirmed their planned reforms by then, so the bigger picture will have also changed.

If we decide to stay, it will also give the economy a massive boost in the run up to the elections which could benefit the Tories.

Problem is some people either do not believe it will be shit or do not care. I know there has been some voters remorse among Leave voters but most seem unmoved, and there is no chance that a Tory PM will change their mind on Brexit - it will be electoral suicide for them, and there are plenty of very noisy pro-Brexiters who will not allow anything other then Brexit. They will realise the error of their ways after we have left when inflation rips their living standards apart and the economy tanks, but even then they will blame Remainers for talking the country down and the EU for not giving them what they want.

[MOZ]

Problem is some people either do not believe it will be shit or do not care. I know there has been some voters remorse among Leave voters but most seem unmoved, and there is no chance that a Tory PM will change their mind on Brexit - it will be electoral suicide for them, and there are plenty of very noisy pro-Brexiters who will not allow anything other then Brexit. They will realise the error of their ways after we have left when inflation rips their living standards apart and the economy tanks, but even then they will blame Remainers for talking the country down and the EU for not giving them what they want.

I am not talking about a Tory PM changing their mind. I am talking about a parliamentary vote in two and half years time. The responsibility would be collective which would get the Tories off the hook. Once article 50 is triggered, the shit will really hit the fan economically and more and more will back a reversal. Yes, there will still be a hard Brexit mob but their voice will seem even less relevant as we descend into the abyss and seek a way out.

[Crumble]

I still think it will never happen, especially now Tusk has confirmed we can reverse our decision at any time after pulling the A50 trigger.

I've been trying to find a source for this confirmation by Mr Tusk, because it would be great if we could rely on it. Article 50 itself of course makes no such allowance for reversal without unanimous agreement by all member states. It is crucial that we know at which point the process is irreversable because it makes a huge difference to negotiating positions on both sides.

Newspapers report the assertion as arising from Mr Tusk's speech at the European Policy Centre yesterday. The transcript is here: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/10/13-tusk-speech-epc/. Quite apart from the bits on Brexit it's an interesting speech, well worth a read (if our media had given more balanced coverage of European affairs over the years we might not be in the current mess). But regarding Brexit, Mr Tusk certainly hints at the possibility of A50 reversal - "Of course it is and can only be for the UK to assess the outcome of the negotiations and determine if Brexit is really in their interest." - but this falls well short of a guarantee.

It seems that Mr Tusk said more in the Q&A following his speech, although unfortunately I can't find a formal record, only some newspaper reports. For example, the Express & Star (!) says:

The council president added that other EU leaders would be sympathetic if the UK Government reversed the Brexit decision.

"If we have a chance to reverse this negative process, we will find allies," he said.

Mr Tusk said the Article 50 process could be halted by Mrs May's Government even once it had been triggered.

Read more at http://www.expressandstar.com/business/city-news/2016/10/12/uk-facing-18bn-divorce-bill-for-brexit/#z9YRuGOHbmrqxVHy.99

So it seems to me that Mr Tusk hopes and believes that the process is reversible, but that's all.

Anyone here got any better sources?

[MOZ]

I've been trying to find a source for this confirmation by Mr Tusk, because it would be great if we could rely on it.

I read this in the Indie: "Donald Tusk said the Article 50 process could be halted by Theresa May's Government even once it had been triggered."

But like you, I have have had a look cannot find where he actually said those words.

However, the FT described how the scenario would work a while back:

https://www.ft.com/content/b9fc30c8-6edb-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

Article 50 is just an intention that can be withdrawn.

The article was written by the former director-general of the Council of the European Union’s Legal Service.

[Crumble]

I read this in the Indie: "Donald Tusk said the Article 50 process could be halted by Theresa May's Government even once it had been triggered."

But like you, I have have had a look cannot find where he actually said those words.

However, the FT described how the scenario would work a while back:

https://www.ft.com/content/b9fc30c8-6edb-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

Article 50 is just an intention that can be withdrawn.

The article was written by the former director-general of the Council of the European Union’s Legal Service.

Alternatively, here's a seemlingly authoritative fact check, sowing doubt on the matter:
https://fullfact.org/europe/can-uk-change-mind-leaving-eu-brexit/

Certainly a layman reading of A50 in isolation would paraphrase it to say, you have 2 years to reach a negotiation and unless there is an agreement to extend the timescale you're out, agreement or not. But some lawyers seem to be saying, if you change your mind inside those 2 years this doesn't count as failing to reach an agreement.

Hopefully Mr Tusk's reported comments will turn into a definitive ruling in the next few months.

[MOZ]

Alternatively, here's a seemlingly authoritative fact check, sowing doubt on the matter:
https://fullfact.org/europe/can-uk-change-mind-leaving-eu-brexit/

Certainly a layman reading of A50 in isolation would paraphrase it to say, you have 2 years to reach a negotiation and unless there is an agreement to extend the timescale you're out, agreement or not. But some lawyers seem to be saying, if you change your mind inside those 2 years this doesn't count as failing to reach an agreement.

Hopefully Mr Tusk's reported comments will turn into a definitive ruling in the next few months.

No, but legally, a notice of intention can be withdrawn. The FT bod suggest that the wording of A50 suggests it is a notice of intention.

Of course, if lawyers can't seem to agree, then there is room for doubt. But I am sure it would be in the EU's interest to allow us to withdraw our intention during those two years.

[Yorkykopite]

It seems that Mr Tusk said more in the Q&A following his speech, although unfortunately I can't find a formal record, only some newspaper reports. For example, the Express & Star (!) says:

So it seems to me that Mr Tusk hopes and believes that the process is reversible, but that's all.

Anyone here got any better sources?

No, but the speech itself - especially the closing paragraph - is clear I think.

The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us. There will be no cakes on the table. For anyone. There will be only salt and vinegar. If you ask me if there is any alternative to this bad scenario, I would like to tell you that yes, there is. And I think it is useless to speculate about "soft Brexit" because of all the reasons I've mentioned. These would be purely theoretical speculations. In my opinion, the only real alternative to a "hard Brexit" is "no Brexit". Even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility. We will conduct the negotiations in good faith, defend the interests of the EU 27, minimise the costs and seek the best possible deal for all. But as I have said before, I am afraid that no such outcome exists that will benefit either side. Of course it is and can only be for the UK to assess the outcome of the negotiations and determine if Brexit is really in their interest. Paraphrasing Hannah Arendt's words: "a full understanding of all the consequences of the political process is the only way to reverse the irreversible flow of history". Thank you.

This seems to be putting the ball into Britain's court by allowing us to change our minds after negotiations have finished. The speech could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if those interest groups and parties in the UK who wish to remain organise politically to do something about it. They can, at least, now draw on Tusk's speech to argue that their case is not futile. That's progress of sorts.   

[Dr. Beaker]

The speech could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if those interest groups and parties in the UK who wish to remain organise politically to do something about it. They can, at least, now draw on Tusk's speech to argue that their case is not futile. That's progress of sorts.   

To me this looks like a great opportunity for Labour. Obviously it's not an opportunity for the tories, it would be suicide for them to take it - and it's suicide for them if they don't.

[oldfordie]

To me this looks like a great opportunity for Labour. Obviously it's not an opportunity for the tories, it would be suicide for them to take it - and it's suicide for them if they don't.

May had talks with the head of Nissan today, he came out satisfied with what he was told.

Ghosn said on Friday: “Following our productive meeting, I am confident the government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business.”

Labour should be asking detailed questions on this, what did she say to reassure Nissan as we would like reassurance as well. is it subsidies to help cover the costs of tariffs etc or something else. if it is subsidies then what happens to everyone else hit by Brexit, do they get subsidies as well or are Nissan some special case.
I cant accept Mays statement on creating the right conditions to trade. it's a contradiction as she already knows the single market is vital for the car industry yet she want's to take us out.
May, who will begin official divorce talks with the European Union by the end of March, said she wanted to continue to back the country’s car industry.

“This government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future,” she added in a statement
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/14/nissan-chief-executive-carlos-ghosn-meets-theresa-may-brexit-talks

[west_london_red]

Nisan were pretty specific in what they wanted previously which was compensation for any extra costs if we leave the single market. I would assume that could involve something like using the tariffs payable when goods comes into the country to cover the tariffs payable to other countries when goods leave the country?

Or just a straight cut in corporation tax as that would keep the Tory friends in business  happy too

[oldfordie]

Nisan were pretty specific in what they wanted previously which was compensation for any extra costs if we leave the single market. I would assume that could involve something like using the tariffs payable when goods comes into the country to cover the tariffs payable to other countries when goods leave the country?

Am sure Nissan would love compensation, the problem is that's impossible, if they subsidize Nissan then the government have to subsidize every other company in the UK who also can't trade competitively after Brexit.
The fact this is up for discussion shows a hard Brexit is already a failure as one of the main reasons put forward for leaving the single market is for our company's to prosper. they should be making more money after we leave the EU not asking for bail outs.

[YayaP]

May had talks with the head of Nissan today, he came out satisfied with what he was told.

Ghosn said on Friday: “Following our productive meeting, I am confident the government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business.”

Labour should be asking detailed questions on this, what did she say to reassure Nissan as we would like reassurance as well. is it subsidies to help cover the costs of tariffs etc or something else. if it is subsidies then what happens to everyone else hit by Brexit, do they get subsidies as well or are Nissan some special case.
I cant accept Mays statement on creating the right conditions to trade. it's a contradiction as she already knows the single market is vital for the car industry yet she want's to take us out.
May, who will begin official divorce talks with the European Union by the end of March, said she wanted to continue to back the country’s car industry.

“This government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future,” she added in a statement
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/14/nissan-chief-executive-carlos-ghosn-meets-theresa-may-brexit-talks

For all the stumbling about in the dark that the Tories are doing, the bigger crime is what I've bolded and underlined, that Labour seemingly refuse to pounce on these golden opportunities for whatever reason. And if they do it's typically half-hearted and late. It's an absolute joke that despite the Conservatives bungling one of the most unpopular policies in recent history, that they have a 17 point lead according to Monday's poll. Labour need to get stuck in, and quickly.

[west_london_red]

Am sure Nissan would love compensation, the problem is that's impossible, if they subsidize Nissan then the government have to subsidize every other company in the UK who also can't trade competitively after Brexit.
The fact this is up for discussion shows a hard Brexit is already a failure as one of the main reasons put forward for leaving the single market is for our company's to prosper. they should be making more money after we leave the EU not asking for bail outs.

It won't be a subsidy as that's against WTO rules too I believe so it will be something more subtle like a cut in corporation tax or NI I would guess which benefits most businesses rather then Nisan specifically.

[oldfordie]

It won't be a subsidy as that's against WTO rules too I believe so it will be something more subtle like a cut in corporation tax or NI I would guess which benefits most businesses rather then Nisan specifically.

It will be interesting to hear some answers from May on this, I doubt it's subsidies to be honest as that opens up a minefield so no idea what she could have said to satisfy Nissan except she intends to keep us in the single market.

[Dr. Beaker]

I think May has known right from the start that 'Brexit means Remain'. She's just playing the shit hand she got dealt as best she can, and playing it very cleverly.

[TepidT2O]

I think May has known right from the start that 'Brexit means Remain'. She's just playing the shit hand she got dealt as best she can, and playing it very cleverly.

I wish I shared your confidence.

The question "at which point dies leaving the EU become more painful than we can tolerate" would be an interesting question, but which politician would be brace enough to answer it sensibly?


That the president of the EU has the good grace to leave the door open for the uk to cancel leaving at the last minute, speaks volumes about the generosity of our neighbours.

[kennedy81]

I wish I shared your confidence.

The question "at which point dies leaving the EU become more painful than we can tolerate" would be an interesting question, but which politician would be brace enough to answer it sensibly?


That the president of the EU has the good grace to leave the door open for the uk to cancel leaving at the last minute, speaks volumes about the generosity of our neighbours.

I would say it's more self preservation than generosity. Britain leaving could have potentially fatal consequences for the EU in the coming years.

[TepidT2O]

I would say it's more self preservation than generosity. Britain leaving could have potentially fatal consequences for the EU in the coming years.

It could I suppose.

[saoirse08]

Reading Tusk's comments, perhaps it's true - as Varoufakis recently observed - (don't think he was the first, though) the EU really is like The Hotel California: you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave. He's also been arguing, for anybody who has been listening, pretty much since the Eurozone crisis began, that the task of the European left is to save European capitalism from European capitalists and, by extension, European democracy with it. The authoritarian moves in Poland and Hungary, the rise of Ukip and the FN in France, the Freedom Party in Austria etc, makes it feel at times like we're heading towards a nasty round of xenophobic, right wing authoritarianism populism across the continent.

The EU's task in the near future might be to preserve democracy in Europe from the 'flow' it is currently following. How it goes about it, as it's currently constituted, is another question all together.

[oldfordie]

I would say it's more self preservation than generosity. Britain leaving could have potentially fatal consequences for the EU in the coming years.

The EU will survive if we leave so self preservation is a bit unfair, the self preservation criticism will be something we deserve when we are forced to accept Brexit is a failure.

[Dr. Beaker]

Reading Tusk's comments, perhaps it's true - as Varoufakis recently observed - (don't think he was the first, though) the EU really is like The Hotel California: you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave. He's also been arguing, for anybody who has been listening, pretty much since the Eurozone crisis began, that the task of the European left is to save European capitalism from European capitalists and, by extension, European democracy with it. The authoritarian moves in Poland and Hungary, the rise of Ukip and the FN in France, the Freedom Party in Austria etc, makes it feel at times like we're heading towards a nasty round of xenophobic, right wing authoritarianism populism across the continent.

The EU's task in the near future might be to preserve democracy in Europe from the 'flow' it is currently following. How it goes about it, as it's currently constituted, is another question all together.

A bit pedantic I know, but I think Varoufakis was talking about the eurozone rather than the EU.

[TepidT2O]

A bit pedantic I know, but I think Varoufakis was talking about the eurozone rather than the EU.

Not pedantic, hugely different things..

[Dr. Beaker]

Not pedantic, hugely different things..

I was being kind.

[saoirse08]

A bit pedantic I know, but I think Varoufakis was talking about the eurozone rather than the EU.

The Hotel California analogy?

He said something similar about Brexit, too. Even if we leave, all the current problems besetting Europe will remain. And we won't immune to them. 

“My message to Brexiteers has always been the Hotel California – you think you can check out but you cannot really leave such a mess behind,” he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/27/eurozone-risks-collapse-into-prosperous-north-and-stagnant-south/

[SP]

The EU will survive if we leave so self preservation is a bit unfair, the self preservation criticism will be something we deserve when we are forced to accept Brexit is a failure.

The fear is that that Britain leaving will destroy the EU, but that others will follow suit, leading to terminal damage.

[Dr. Beaker]

The Hotel California analogy?

He said something similar about Brexit, too. Even if we leave, all the current problems besetting Europe will remain. And we won't immune to them. 

“My message to Brexiteers has always been the Hotel California – you think you can check out but you cannot really leave such a mess behind,” he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/27/eurozone-risks-collapse-into-prosperous-north-and-stagnant-south/

Fair enough. I'd never seen him say it in that context before.

[oldfordie]

The fear is that that Britain leaving will destroy the EU, but that others will follow suit, leading to terminal damage.

The whole of the EU is following the situation in the UK right now, they are watching the effect Brexit will have on our economy and our standard of living etc. they will see nothing that encourages them to want Brexit in their own countrys, IMO if anything the UKs economic problems will strengthen EU support in all member countrys.

[killer-heels]

EU students will have free tuition in an independent Scotland that was in the EU. Obviously that doesnt include the English.

[SP]

The whole of the EU is following the situation in the UK right now, they are watching the effect Brexit will have on our economy and our standard of living etc. they will see nothing that encourages them to want Brexit in their own countrys, IMO if anything the UKs economic problems will strengthen EU support in all member countrys.

It can be spun to a UKIP equivalent argument. The Brexit arguments were not rational, why would you except other countries to be any different?

[Dr. Beaker]

The whole of the EU is following the situation in the UK right now, they are watching the effect Brexit will have on our economy and our standard of living etc. they will see nothing that encourages them to want Brexit in their own countrys, IMO if anything the UKs economic problems will strengthen EU support in all member countrys.

It was always going to be the case that the EU would make this as painful, and as instantly painful as possible for those very reasons.

[oldfordie]

It can be spun to a UKIP equivalent argument. The Brexit arguments were not rational, why would you except other countries to be any different?

Will the UKIP argument have any strong support in this country when the economic fallout hits people.
I doubt job losses will change many minds, inflation however hits everyone of us. nobody escapes the effect of inflation, people say all sorts of things but they soon quieten down when they haven't a penny in their back pockets with bills to pay. sadly many will not have enough to pay those bills. fear will soon hit people. how high will interest rates actually go?
They will also look round and think nothings actually changed for the good. the immigrants are still all here. people will be critical of the government and the effect of Brexit, none of that will be missed by the rest of the EU.

[GBF]

The EU will survive if we leave so self preservation is a bit unfair, the self preservation criticism will be something we deserve when we are forced to accept Brexit is a failure.

with or without UK, the EU is bound to fail with the current EU philosophy and specially with Juncker at the head. 

[redbyrdz]

with or without UK, the EU is bound to fail with the current EU philosophy and specially with Juncker at the head. 

Why? Funnily this believe that the EU will fail only exist in the UK.

[west_london_red]

The EU will survive if we leave so self preservation is a bit unfair, the self preservation criticism will be something we deserve when we are forced to accept Brexit is a failure.

Totally disagree, in fact the possible end of the Eurozone if not the whole EU is one of the things that makes Brexit slightly paletable to me because even if we stay in I think it's got a very limited lifespan. The economic problems of 2008 still remain, huge trade imbalances still exist (I saw a map of the world with each country coloured the flag of where most of its imports come from and there was a lot of Red, Yellow and Gold all over Europe), the refugee chrisis, rising nationalism, budget deficits, Greece, the Italian banking system, seriously the threats to the EU's long term existence are literally everywhere and will eventually get too big for Germany to carry alone.

[Dr. Beaker]

Totally disagree, in fact the possible end of the Eurozone if not the whole EU is one of the things that makes Brexit slightly paletable to me because even if we stay in I think it's got a very limited lifespan. The economic problems of 2008 still remain, huge trade imbalances still exist (I saw a map of the world with each country coloured the flag of where most of its imports come from and there was a lot of Red, Yellow and Gold all over Europe), the refugee chrisis, rising nationalism, budget deficits, Greece, the Italian banking system, seriously the threats to the EU's long term existence are literally everywhere and will eventually get too big for Germany to carry alone.

Deutsche Bank'sderivatives problems put Italy in the shade.