Author Topic: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton  (Read 24389 times)

Offline Hinesy

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RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« on: August 17, 2014, 04:03:12 pm »
Well that was just like the good ol' days. But a wins a win against a bogey team for us and one of the very few to beat us at Anfield.
Initial thoughts:
I thought Lovren played very well immediately.
I thought there were gaps in front of the defence, frequently and we need to sew up those holes before better teams skip through as Southampton did.
To take three points on the first weekend is always a good sign, always.
We missed Luis, not for his goals as much for the psychological effect he created both in our players and the opposition's defences.
Hasn't Sterling come on even more than I expected?!
I didn't think we'd start and try and blow them away because I think we realise that other teams now realise that might happen and play accordingly. Either Koeman wants to set them up like that or it was a tactic deliberately chosen for the match today but Southampton were sat much much deeper and more compact than last season, and played like Chelsea & Newcastle did at the end of the year at ours.
Overall it reminded me of the Stoke game last season, we won where in other years we might have drawn or lost. That's a good thing.

Questions:
How did you perceive the game and how does it fit into what you might have expected?
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Offline Cpt_Reina

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2014, 07:26:29 pm »
We looked like a team that figuring out what it needs to be without Suarez there to tell it.

To be expected really, Suarez defined the team last season. Whether or not it was Rodgers 'ideal' and before you ask the question of whether we can be as good or better without him we need to just accept that last season he dominated the way we played. Suarez excelled in the chaos we created for him.

Now he's not there the entire team need to reassess their position in it. Sturridge has to be the best goalscorer at the club, Sterling has to bely his age and be responsible as we in turn rely increasingly on him. Coutinho ditto.

That's what we saw today, a team attempting to realign itself, it hurt too, for parts.

I don't think we played at all well at any point, but we scored 2 goals and took 3 points so given the above we can consider this a very good day at the office. If the team can keep winning games and picking up points whist its trying to 'gel' then we won't go far wrong the entire season. Because they'll click eventually and the goals/points will flow.

More specifically on the performance today, Lucas and Gerrard shouldn't be allowed to be on the same pitch at any point. Its baffling why Rodgers continues to want to force them together. Its was only an injury to Lucas that managed to separate them last season and kick start our season. Lambert and Liverpool has been a heart warming reunion this summer, Lucas and Gerrard very much the opposite. Hopefully it ends here.

They want to play in the same areas, they get in each others way, slow each other down, have no relationship or connection when moving themselves or the ball and our play looked blunt because of it. We were so slow. Having been so insanely quick last season, it really stood out a mile.

Once Allen came on it looked much more natural, he sped us up no end, its just a shame it took an equalising goal for it to happen. Rodgers too often needs to be comprehensively proved wrong like this before changing things up for my liking. It was clear within 30mins that the problem in midfield was there and it took until a Southampton goal and the 63rd minute for him to do anything about it. I wish he'd be more proactive at times.

Thought Lovren was good, as was Skrtel for the most part. Mignolet showed his still the same 'keeper, nervous on crosses and ponderous and often wasteful with the ball but a hell of a shot stopper. Manquillo pretty much nailed down the right back spot both by virtue of being very useful and not being Glen Johnson. Who was absolutely fucking terrible.

Coutinho was well marshalled by Southampton's midfield, but we were so slow in getting the ball to him that we did him no favours. Henderson was wasted on the right, that magnificent assist aside he failed to impact much of the game.

Which just leaves Sturridge and Sterling doesn't it? They're a sight to behold. This wasn't Sturridge's finest game by any stretch, given the service it was no surprise, and yet up he pops with the defining moment of the game, again. He will tend to do that will Sturridge. He's a confident boy, but that will puff up his chest and relax his shoulders no end. There'll be nobody more acutely aware of the hole left by Suarez than Sturridge, the man expected to fill it. I have no doubt that he's capable of doing so.

Sterling I can't do justice to. I, like many others, have had the pleasure of watching Raheem for an extra 2 and a bit years before he got his promotion and never looked back. Even despite that apprenticeship of watching Sterling against his peers (most of whom would do well if they managed to grab his shirt as he waltzed past them) he still amazes.

The boy is 19 years of age.

1 goal and 1 assist after a summer of England hype, after a promotion in terms of importance thanks to Suarez's departure, in a team that isn't performing that well on the day.

1 goal and 1 assist the week after tearing also Dortmund apart.

1 goal and 1 assist days after his manager demands he have an identity, demanded that he scores and creates goals.

No fuss, no need.

He's 19

*puffs out cheeks*

Offline Col

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2014, 09:30:46 pm »
A lot of what I'd say has already been said. Our midfield was very disjointed in the 2-1.

Last season against Southampton, they pressed us very high, got in and around our centre mids, and bossed us. I think the restructuring of the midfield, and the introduction of Lucas alongside Gerrard was to give Gerrard some help and assistance in his defensive duties. Gerrard was caught wrong-side of Ward-Prowse on a few occasions today, and we all know what happened when teams ran into the spaces around him last year.

Lucas was in there to add an extra defensive shield, and that side of it worked, on the whole - we looked solid enough with the 4-2 behind a 3-1, but the down side of it is that Lucas is both prone to switching off when runners go past him, and also incapable of contributing in an attacking sense. With Wanyama getting the better of Coutinho, it allowed the mobile Schneiderlin and JW-P to go 2v2 with the static pairing of Gerrard and Lucas, and we struggled.

When we brought Allen on, the game opened up, stretched out, and became more accessible at either end of the field. Similar to last season, we left Gerrard on his own a bit more, asked Allen to play a little higher, and it worked - we had more attacking speed in transition, circulated the ball from back to front with more guile and verve, and sustained more possession in the attacking half. Once we'd opened the game up, it was as though we were trusting our attacking players to have enough quality to take more chances than Southampton's - and it worked, with Sturridge finishing well for us, and Davis and Long missing sitters for Saints.

I think the defensively-solid-yet-uninspiring first hour was a deliberate ploy by Rodgers, knowing that Southampton's midfield three would press high and hard constantly and that we could stretch the game open later on, but the down side is that I hope he realises precisely *how* bad Gerrard and Lucas are in a midfield two, and how poorly they compliment each other. I wonder if this was, in part, a shop-window opportunity for Lucas, whilst at the same time allowing Can some more time to settle in, and restricting the number of new players in the starting lineup.

If we are to go with a 2-1 midfield instead of a 1-2 (or a 1-2-1 diamond) in certain games, then Can will likely be Gerrard's partner once the dust settles. With any luck, Lucas will be playing elsewhere by the end of this transfer window as he simply doesn't offer anything to this team any more, especially in Rodgers' favoured high-pressing systems. He was in there to help Gerrard, until we can put Can in there.

The only other aside to be mentioned is that Manquillo looks to be an astute signing at first glance, and Johnson could be spending a whole lot of time on the bench this season once Moreno settles and Flanagan and Enrique are fully fit again. He was, yet again, awful in possession. He seems to have two options - "Terrified", where he panics and passes backwards, when often simple penetrative passing options are available, or "Rampaging", where he bombs on at 100mph but his lack of quality in the final third breaks the move down. He's a conundrum who's gone from being one of the best in Europe for a while after we signed him, to an absolute liability. He's lost all confidence, and adds nothing to the team. Again, like Lucas, he looks like a placeholder until other players are available.
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Offline Juan Loco

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2014, 01:00:31 pm »
Thought we got away with it a little but I can see why Rodgers chose to set up the way he did, even if I personally think it was wrong. There was an interview over the weekend where he pointed out that he wouldn't be rushing in all of the new signings immediately, which is fair enough. We don't want to look like a completely different team to last year immediately. We want to evolve. With Manquillo in and Lovren in, I can see why - even if the rumours of Can having a knock were false - he didn't get the start too. Personally I'd have rather seen Allen start, but to do that would've mean going 4-3-3 and I don't think many were calling for that during the past week after the Dortmund game. I think the people complaining about Lucas starting would've been complaining about Coutinho playing wide if Rodgers had chosen to start Allen and play a 4-3-3. After how Coutinho played against Dortmund it was only right to want to stick with him in the #10 role. He was massively underwhelming.

I didn't like the team selection or the shape, but I think it's more important to try and understand why we set up like that and I think that's probably the reason for it. Not wanting to rush in more new signings than necessary and wanting to keep Phil where he'd played so well in the previous game.

I really don't think the 4-2-3-1 would've even come up were we not missing three attacking players from our squad. If Lallana, Markovic or even Borini (or the player who hopefully replaces him) were available, I think we'd have gone 4-3-3 and put Phil back in the center of midfield where he's best. Without them available Rodgers tried to put him in the position where he could be the greatest goal threat and it didn't pay off.

Especially when as part of that we had to pick the ghost of Lucas Leiva. There's a player who the team has long since passed by, but engenders a cloying level of sentimentality on this board because he was written off initially. It's sad to see him as he is now, because it's through no real fault of his own, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Same thing with Glen Johnson. At his peak he was one of the best fullbacks around, and he was stuck in a pathetically average team for most of those years. Had we had the 2009-2012 Glen Johnson in this team he'd have got the appreciation his performances from those years deserved. Instead we've got this wraith, shitting out of tackles and just being generally laborious to witness. The pair of them look like players who've been retired a year or two but come back to play in a testimonial.

I don't think there'll be much change for City. Allen will come in as he more than deserves to after that performance, and you've got to hope Moreno will as well. The shape will change to 4-3-3, which better suits everyone, and the bench will look stronger with Markovic and hopefully Lallana able to get a space on it. Just on the bench though, I thought it was telling how both our subs yesterday were able to make a positive impact. Lambert was good when he came on and looked more like the Southampton version than the preseason one. We had two legitimate options off there though, and two changes of shape, both of which helped us build the momentum to get the winning goal.

Didn't think too much of them. Got little doubt they'll be safe, but they were spirited more than anything. They're the sort of team that can look good against a good team having an off day but meh. Wanyama's the type of player you think is good because you see him turning the midfield into a swap against you, but fucking hell is he laboured in possession and just generally shit on the ball. Schneiderlin was classier by far those moments of the game he was actually arsed about. Clyne and Ward-Prowse are both lovely players. Yoshida is a nightmare. Tadic will be the Ki to Adam Lallana's Joe Allen.

Three points. Sturridge scores goals, Raheem Sterling is great.
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Offline Hinesy

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2014, 01:04:13 pm »
This year we want to move the Round Table over as soon as we can running both it and the main thread alongside eachother so both kinds of post match discussion can be had!
Yep.

Offline john_mac

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2014, 01:25:01 pm »
My view? 3 points towards the title.
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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2014, 01:30:02 pm »
Midfield needs to take a significant portion of the blame for our poor defensive performance yesterday, and last season. Simply not good enough.


Offline DanA

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2014, 01:43:14 pm »
Positives:
- The CB's were immense. Possibly the two best players for us on the pitch.  They were exposed far too often but both IMO dominated the game. Really impressive.
- Henderson and Sterling were influential. Our two key players.
- Manquillo was targeted and held up well against immense pressure. After the yellow he did really well in a tough situation.
- The new SAS got 2 goals and an assist. Different setup but there's chemistry there.

Negatives:
- The double pivot didn't work. Lucas was actually solid in the first half but we simply lacked penetration from him or Gerrard. Robbed us of a lot of the flair we had last season IMO. It also isolated Coutinho.
- Allen is getting a bit of praise but I thought he was just okay. He improved us giving us a bit of drove going forward but there is no goal threat there at for me it's a concern.
- Johnson, to be fair it was a tough ask with Sterling to high (on the shoulder) and cutting inside. With Lucas sitting deep there was nothing for him to play off. Still he needs to cut the shot from range out. It does my head in.
- Coutinho marked out of the game. Admitedly against a very good midfield but we've got to find a way around that. He's too important.
- Sturridge's hold up play was sub-par. He's got to accept the clatterings Suarez used to get and shake them off without letting them get to him.

Possible fixes:
- 4-2-3-1 might be more effective if Henderson is in Lucas' position and Lallana on the right. But I'd want Henderson pushing forward making it more like the lopsided 4-4-2 diamond we played in preseason.
- Can ahead of Lucas and Allen. IMO he's a bigger goal threat and better all round player than Lucas and Allen.
- Moreno at LB as a left footer will want to stay wide which will compliment Sterling sitting on the shoulder more than Johnson. He's also got a trademark cross field pass which could be beneficial.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 01:44:49 pm by DanA »
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Offline MobileBayRed

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2014, 01:53:23 pm »
For me, this game simply highlighted how important Coutinho is to our system.  Whether it was our formation or whether it was just Southampton making a concerted effort to take him out, we just weren't the same without his creativity on the ball.  I was very surprised that Rodgers did not make a change at half to move Coutinho and get him more space where he could have an effect on the game.  Even without making a sub, Coutinho and Henderson should have been swapped.

With Lucas and Gerrard both sitting deep, and Coutinho effectively marked out of the game, there was an enormous hole in the center of the field when we had the ball.  Frankly, the Southampton back line was very weak and we were never really able to test them.  Even when Gerrard would pick out Sturridge over the top, there were no runners into the box for Sturridge to work with. 

The other thing that surprised me was how nervy we were in the second half.  I thought our passing in the first half was good.  Not so much in the second half.  Lucas gave the ball away a number of times in the first 5 or 10 minutes, and even passes that will register as "completed" on the stat sheet were often behind players or left short forcing the receiving player to have to adjust.  Very few passes were played confidently.  After last season, it was just surprising to see us so nervy with a one goal lead at the start of the second half. 

That said, it's better to be working through these issues with 3 points in our pocket.
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Offline Severely

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2014, 02:10:26 pm »
I don't think we can take all too much from this game yet. I've mentioned it before in the post-match thread, but I suspect it'll be a few weeks until we start looking like the team we will be for the rest of the season. Much like last season, the first few games will all be about tightly regulating fitness levels and scraping by wins to give us that psychological boost until we keep into gear. The thing is, last season, we had Suarez's return coinciding with this, which really let us explode into form. This time, we don't have Luis here, and his absence was very, very telling. More so than his ability, it's that aura he gives off; the charisma of a truly world class player who can define entire seasons through sheer force of will. This has the double effect of terrifying opponents and giving us that sense of invulnerability. That's gone. The safety net is gone. Even more than that, Suarez's will to win was tremendous. It was awe-inspiring. It was outright frightening. I can only imagine the sort of impact that would have on the rest of the team, who  demands to help sate that appetite. That's gone too.

But we got through it anyway. Sterling, Sturridge and Henderson stepped up big time, as did Lovren, who seemed indomitable in a similar way to Suarez at times - he exuded that sort of arrogance that top players have. If the ball was coming towards the goal in the air, he was going to get to it before anyone else, and he was going to head it away really goddamn hard too. It's hard to tell so early in his Liverpool career, but if that sort of mentality is normal for him, then that's going to go some way towards filling the void left by Suarez, and it instantly becomes clear why Rodgers was so adamant that Lovren was going to be the leader of his defence.
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Offline MobileBayRed

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2014, 02:49:20 pm »
I don't think we can take all too much from this game yet. I've mentioned it before in the post-match thread, but I suspect it'll be a few weeks until we start looking like the team we will be for the rest of the season. Much like last season, the first few games will all be about tightly regulating fitness levels and scraping by wins to give us that psychological boost until we keep into gear. The thing is, last season, we had Suarez's return coinciding with this, which really let us explode into form. This time, we don't have Luis here, and his absence was very, very telling. More so than his ability, it's that aura he gives off; the charisma of a truly world class player who can define entire seasons through sheer force of will. This has the double effect of terrifying opponents and giving us that sense of invulnerability. That's gone. The safety net is gone. Even more than that, Suarez's will to win was tremendous. It was awe-inspiring. It was outright frightening. I can only imagine the sort of impact that would have on the rest of the team, who  demands to help sate that appetite. That's gone too.

But we got through it anyway. Sterling, Sturridge and Henderson stepped up big time, as did Lovren, who seemed indomitable in a similar way to Suarez at times - he exuded that sort of arrogance that top players have. If the ball was coming towards the goal in the air, he was going to get to it before anyone else, and he was going to head it away really goddamn hard too. It's hard to tell so early in his Liverpool career, but if that sort of mentality is normal for him, then that's going to go some way towards filling the void left by Suarez, and it instantly becomes clear why Rodgers was so adamant that Lovren was going to be the leader of his defence.

Remember though that we do have Lallana and Markovic coming back to fitness over the next several weeks.  While neither of them are at the level of Suarez, the fitness of either one of them will allow us to neatly fit back into the 4-3-3 from which we are so dangerous.  Think you will see us start to fold in Can, Moreno, Flanagan, Sakho, Lallana and Markovic over the next 4-6 weeks.  Think we will also go back to our preferred formations and patterns of attack.
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2014, 02:52:46 pm »
Statistical Roundup

There’s an insane amount of great content being produced right now by the stats bloggers.

First, the tactical lineups.
Here are the way the teams lined up throughout the game, from Colin Trainor and Constantinos Chappas:



The various Expected Goal models.

Expected Goal models (which are based on historical analysis of what factors make a shot likely to turn into a goal) have become very popular in the stats community. They can miss things in individual games, but over the long term have been shown to be very strong predictors of future point totals. (Note that Micahel Caley and 11Tegen11 have pretty similar models, while Stephen McCarthy incorporates the subjective (but as our own Woolster has shown, very useful) Opta “big chance” stat.)

Michael Caley (@MC_of_A):



11Tegen11 (@11Tegen11):



Stephen McCarthy (@SteMc74):



So overall, you’d say a fairly even game that we were a bit lucky to get 3 points from.

Player Highlights

From a statistical perspective, Manquillo and Sterling were the standouts. Sterling had, obviously, a goal and an assist, as well as 4 shots, 5 successful dribbles (tied first on the weekend), as well as 2 tackles and an interception. He did lose the ball pretty frequently, with 6 dispossessions and 3 turnovers, but you wouldn’t worry about that with the other things he brings. He’s well on his way to superstar status.

Manquillo had a brilliant game defensively. 6 tackles, 4 interceptions and 3 crosses blocked. I thought he was imperious defensively throughout, and that Tadic had to move away from his flank to actually accomplish anything. Hugely encouraging start from him.

The lowlights were, as most have heard by now, Lucas and Johnson, who combined for 0 tackles and 3 interceptions. Not a good day at the office for either.

Personal Thoughts

Fitness

PoP has been telling us since Rodgers came in that he employs the “tactical periodization” method when it comes to fitness. This means that we start the season at less than 100% but, in theory, are able to maintain top fitness levels longer into the season. It was a common theme in the early season that we were poor in 2nd halves, but few in the media or even on here connected it to fitness regimes. I did some back of the envelope calculations last year that I can’t find now that showed are second half shot ratio dramatically increasing as the season went on. I think you’ll see the same thing again this year.

My  point is that we shouldn’t be overly concerned with our poor second half. Our fitness isn’t anywhere close to 100%, as it wasn’t when we tired against Stoke and Villa last year.

That said, I continue to worry that we react too dramatically to the “game state” (i.e., whether we’re winning, losing or drawing). All teams shoot more when they’re losing than when they’re winning, but we seem to change our game even more than most. Throughout the game, we were quite good, if certainly not at our fluent best, while the game the was tied, and were pretty terrible when we were winning. That may simply be about fitnesss—we don’t have the legs to play full pelt for 90, so let’s drop into our defensive shell when we have the chance. The problem, of course, is that our defensive shell still isn’t very good! Having genuinely good defenders like Manquillo and hopefully Moreno will help though.

Lucas

With some other back of the envelope math, I showed last year how dramatically worse we were when Lucas and Gerrard played together than when only one played. I’m confident the disparity continued throughout the season. At the time, I maintained that Lucas and Gerrard were both good players, but simply incompatible for the same reasons everyone else has pointed out. Now, I’m not so sure Lucas is even a good Premier League player anymore, but regardless, the problem has only gotten worse. They simply cannot play as a 2 together. (I will say that Lucas was actually perfectly fine for the first 45 minutes, but even then, it just didn’t work tactically. As others have said, the two of them just want to be in the same spaces, and it’s not needed.)

Rodgers would clearly like the option to play in this Dunga-esque 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 diamond formation:



I have to say I enjoy the setup, but Can (or possibly Allen) simply need to be the one next to  Gerrard, to give us that energy and verticality in midfield we completely lacked for the first hour yesterday.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 03:10:06 pm by ElstonGunn »

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2014, 03:00:47 pm »
Elston, great post.

I have a question for you. This bit here, of course, is always interesting:

Quote
All teams shoot more when they’re winning than when they’re losing, but we seem to change our game even more than most.

My question is - do you have or know of data that shows that teams who are losing or drawing but need a win, play more long passes than when they are in the lead?
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2014, 03:08:57 pm »
Elston, great post.

I have a question for you. This bit here, of course, is always interesting:

My question is - do you have or know of data that shows that teams who are losing or drawing but need a win, play more long passes than when they are in the lead?
Ah, I got that wrong--should be reversed. Teams shoot more when losing than winning. I'll go edit.

I don't know of anyone who's looked into the long passes, sorry. I imagine it's very likely true though, as long as you don't include clearances as long passes. The game state data mostly seems to back up conventional wisdom.

Offline The Cobbler

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2014, 03:13:22 pm »
What yesterday proved was that moving the ball at pace is crucial to our identity as a team. The manager knows this and the squad has been restructured/enhanced accordingly. Southampton came with a very simple game plan and it worked quite successfully.  They knew Gerrard and Lucas together is the conservative option and lacks pace, so sitting Ward-Prowse between them prevented any rhythm being developed. Both need to take a touch and then look for the pass, where Henderson is a ball of energy and hurries opponents. We ended up reacting to Southampton not the other way round.

What did yesterday prove - actually nothing that we didn't already know. Lucas's best days are behind him and can only really play instead of Gerrard (which will need to happen this season). Henderson is wasted on the right when he is the powerhouse in the centre, we saw last season. Johnson is a shadow of himself, lacking in confidence and belief, so gives the impression, he's not bothered. Can see the young hungry arrivals ready to sideline him - so becomes a self fulfilling prophecy!

Real positives - Lovren - looks like a real old fashioned leader at the back with a touch of long passing class. Manquillo looks he's loving it and knows what the job's about.  Has the energy and freshness of youth, with a look at me, I've arrived attitude.

My main joy - watching Sterling realise just how good he is and there is more to come. This boy will be some player!

Yesterday was very hard to watch, but quite instructive. In many ways it's about knowing what not to do as much as what to you want to achieve. Lallana and Markovic will be crucial to this teams development in the post Suarez era as will the new SAS. Pace and movement are what got us to 2nd place last season and will do so again, but with more defensive steel within the team.

For all the gut wrenching trauma of the last 10 minutes, we actually showed some maturity in keeping the ball and closing the game out.

Overall an unsatisfactory performance but excellent result. It was a must to avoid the media 'they can't cope without Suarez shit'  - amazing a narrow victory defuses the unexploded bomb.


Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2014, 03:23:17 pm »
I don't think there'll be much change for City. Allen will come in as he more than deserves to after that performance, and you've got to hope Moreno will as well. The shape will change to 4-3-3, which better suits everyone,
Think there's a chance we go 4-2-3-1 again if Rodgers feels Can is ready for it. I know many will disagree, and I certainly wouldn't want to be tarred as a Dee Emm obsessive, but I think it's a massive problem for us (in big games at least) if 4-3-3 with Gerrard as the 1 is our only option. Silva ran riot in the second half last year at Anfield--hell, Ward-Prowse nearly ran riot yesterday. Gerrard is great, but he just can't handle the great number 10s on his own. I imagine Pellegrini will go with the same 4-2-3-1 as last year, to get Silva up against Gerrard. Even if Yaya or Jovetic is in the hole, with Silva and possibly Nasri drifting in, we're still going to have big issues.

Now, it's hardly the end of the world if City can get at us. They're one of the best attacking teams in the world. But imo we really need to have a genuine option to give Gerrard a partner in those situations, and Can looks like the only bet at the moment.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2014, 03:31:41 pm »
Think there's a chance we go 4-2-3-1 again if Rodgers feels Can is ready for it. I know many will disagree, and I certainly wouldn't want to be tarred as a Dee Emm obsessive, but I think it's a massive problem for us (in big games at least) if 4-3-3 with Gerrard as the 1 is our only option. Silva ran riot in the second half last year at Anfield--hell, Ward-Prowse nearly ran riot yesterday. Gerrard is great, but he just can't handle the great number 10s on his own. I imagine Pellegrini will go with the same 4-2-3-1 as last year, to get Silva up against Gerrard. Even if Yaya or Jovetic is in the hole, with Silva and possibly Nasri drifting in, we're still going to have big issues.

Now, it's hardly the end of the world if City can get at us. They're one of the best attacking teams in the world. But imo we really need to have a genuine option to give Gerrard a partner in those situations, and Can looks like the only bet at the moment.

Im starting to think that Rodgers just doesnt care that much about Gerrard being exposed. I think he's always working from front to back, so rather than set his team up to combat what City might throw our way he's thinking about how best to hurt their defence.

Ive no evidence to support this of course, but I think Rodgers' work this week will be much more focused around getting the best out of Coutinho/Sterling and Sturridge than it will be compensating for Gerrard.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2014, 03:36:35 pm »
Im starting to think that Rodgers just doesnt care that much about Gerrard being exposed. I think he's always working from front to back, so rather than set his team up to combat what City might throw our way he's thinking about how best to hurt their defence.

Ive no evidence to support this of course, but I think Rodgers' work this week will be much more focused around getting the best out of Coutinho/Sterling and Sturridge than it will be compensating for Gerrard.
Doesn't make much sense to start Lucas over Allen then. Unless he wanted to have Allen to change the game from the bench.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2014, 03:41:47 pm »
Doesn't make much sense to start Lucas over Allen then. Unless he wanted to have Allen to change the game from the bench.

It doesnt make sense to start Lucas no matter which way you come at it.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2014, 03:59:26 pm »
The thing is, last season, we had Suarez's return coinciding with this, which really let us explode into form. This time, we don't have Luis here, and his absence was very, very telling. More so than his ability, it's that aura he gives off; the charisma of a truly world class player who can define entire seasons through sheer force of will. This has the double effect of terrifying opponents and giving us that sense of invulnerability. That's gone. The safety net is gone. Even more than that, Suarez's will to win was tremendous. It was awe-inspiring. It was outright frightening.

It was also present for the two previous seasons, when we finished 7th and 8th. Of course Suarez was pivotal in the success we enjoyed last season, but he was far from alone.
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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2014, 04:00:13 pm »
I'd be interested to know what people think of Allen's game. He was better than Lucas but I still think he was the weakest player on the pitch while he was on.
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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2014, 04:06:57 pm »
This is high quality analysis, thanks everyone.

On the heels of a previous PoP discussion about Lucas, and the discussion in the post match thread, Elston do you have any data on the number of goals we have conceded under Rodgers from runners coming through the midfield or deeper positions (ala... Clyne)? 

I am curious to what extent this trends exists and if this particular tracking back problem supports your Lucas-Gerrard thesis.  If so, we might analyze who, what and where to pass it along.

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Offline steveeastend

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2014, 04:10:36 pm »

I don't think there'll be much change for City. Allen will come in as he more than deserves to after that performance, a

Considering the number of times you were right I think that's a fair statement. Especially as it's City away... 8) ;)

Anyway.. the positives in this game to me was the obvious and massive improvement in terms of our overall organsation which was the reason to me why we won this one. Not that I personally like this sort of game approach but in todays football it's pretty much a necessity. Despite some dips in concentration we looked rock solid as a team when people wanna compare this to the beginning of last season and some games in between.

I still think that Lucas and Gerrard will work great together this season, I am aware that I am pretty much alone in this but I saw enough positives in those last two games to think that they are still the best pairing in center midfield at the moment. Lucas tried too much in the first half, wanted to prove badly he belongs in the team and simply did too much, still he was the only player constantly putting pressure on the ball, doing his job, while trying to support the AM further upfront. In the second half, he was physically fucked which could also be said from a couple of other players though... Coutinho, Lovren, which, as Rodgers mentioned, is down to the way our preseason is usually set up.

Overall, I don't think there is any need to be negative, especially if we can manage to bring in another top striker, which is probably the only thing I am worried about at the moment.

The team has settled, we've come a long way and it's time to enjoy our football.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 04:12:48 pm by steveeastend »
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Offline DanA

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2014, 04:11:42 pm »
This is high quality analysis, thanks everyone.

On the heels of a previous PoP discussion about Lucas, and the discussion in the post match thread, Elston do you have any data on the number of goals we have conceded under Rodgers from runners coming through the midfield or deeper positions (ala... Clyne)? 

I am curious to what extent this trends exists and if this particular tracking back problem supports your Lucas-Gerrard thesis.  If so, we might analyze who, what and where to pass it along.

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I went through the video of all the goals conceded a couple of times and I'd say about 60-70% of them.

It was rare a striker scored against and when they did it was more often than not a big man from a cross or set piece. 
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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2014, 04:13:48 pm »
(snip)

That said, I continue to worry that we react too dramatically to the “game state” (i.e., whether we’re winning, losing or drawing). All teams shoot more when they’re losing than when they’re winning, but we seem to change our game even more than most. Throughout the game, we were quite good, if certainly not at our fluent best, while the game the was tied, and were pretty terrible when we were winning. That may simply be about fitnesss—we don’t have the legs to play full pelt for 90, so let’s drop into our defensive shell when we have the chance. The problem, of course, is that our defensive shell still isn’t very good! Having genuinely good defenders like Manquillo and hopefully Moreno will help though.


I really enjoyed this post - and hope some of the statistical roundups remain a feature of the round table.

In regards to the portion above: there were times yesterday (i.e. near the end of the first half) where I felt that we were truly "resting on the ball." To the point where it looked like we were turning away from passes forward to go along the back line and between Lucas and Gerrard. Maybe we were seeing it out until half time, maybe we were saving our legs, etc. I did think it was fairly obvious that we simply slowed the game down while we were in front.

Good posts all around!
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Offline Trendisnotdestiny

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #25 on: August 18, 2014, 04:14:23 pm »
Doesn't make much sense to start Lucas over Allen then. Unless he wanted to have Allen to change the game from the bench.

What about the idea that Lucas is done at Anfield, but Rodgers felt he deserved one more run out?  We went to Denmark for a friendly to Brondby for Agger. 

Rodgers' humanistic approach might have some layers to it:

1) Probably still trusts Lucas although the game is passing him by a bit
2) If Lucas does leave this window, he deserves some credit/time with the 1st team for his efforts
3) The Southampton match-up appeared to fit the 4-2-3-1 pre-game tactics for introducing Lovren/Manquillo into the team
4) Provides a lifeline to Lucas if he plays well, maybe he stays for the ride (or Napoli pay more).
 
This is pure speculation and bound to be rife with errors, but imagining why Lucas started the first game, this is what I came up with.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 04:18:20 pm by Trendisnotdestiny »
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Offline Hank Scorpio

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #26 on: August 18, 2014, 04:16:59 pm »
It doesnt make sense to start Lucas no matter which way you come at it.
Southampton were happy to let Gerrard & particularly Lucas have the ball deep in our half.  We had 4 players doing a 2.5 man job.  It allowed Southampton to focus on the players Lucas/Gerrard were trying to feed.  Coutinho suffered the most.  Sterling had to drop very deep too.  Henderson was closed down very quickly and he is not able to cope with that type of pressure when on the ball.

I can't see why Lucas started to be honest.  Can is new to the league so it's understandable that he's not thrown in but Allen has experience.  Unless it was an injury you'd expect Allen to start.  Lucas has declined physically and when he plays with Gerrard the midfield simply does not have the ability to cover the space when we move forward.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #27 on: August 18, 2014, 04:17:00 pm »
I went through the video of all the goals conceded a couple of times and I'd say about 60-70% of them.

It was rare a striker scored against and when they did it was more often than not a big man from a cross or set piece.

Wow DanA!  That is awfully high isn't it?  Are you saying the 60-70% of the first two years of goals under Rodgers are tracking issues from the run of play?  Now, this is really getting interesting!  I would have never imagined it to be this high.
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Offline DanA

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #28 on: August 18, 2014, 04:24:31 pm »

Wow DanA!  That is awfully high isn't it?  Are you saying the 60-70% of the first two years of goals under Rodgers are tracking issues from the run of play?  Now, this is really getting interesting!  I would have never imagined it to be this high.

Just last season. There was article posted a couple of days ago. When I went through it almost all the goals were midfielders.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #29 on: August 18, 2014, 05:10:15 pm »
.

Storming stuff. And from others too - ta all, great read.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #30 on: August 18, 2014, 05:25:21 pm »
Storming stuff. And from others too - ta all, great read.
I second that! Keep it coming all season long, mate!

After reading a bunch of (nonsense in) several players threads after the game, I decided to rewatch the first half to reassess my own opinion. My thoughts were that we weren't as bad as we were made up to be. We were pretty decent the first half, just should have killed the game off with a bit more intensity.

Lucas and Gerrard were not the perfect DM pairing, but it may be the best we've got and they weren't that dreadful at all. Good arguments have been made why we should not have lined up with two DMs, but the counterarguments are that (1) we leaked so many goals last season and we no longer have Suarez to compensate for that on the other end, and (2) perhaps we are setting up with the second game in mind. Post factum, maybe it was better to line up with 4-3-3 as PoP said yesterday, but if we were to line up with 2 DMs, I'd have chosen Allen ahead of Coutinho.

And the last thing I want to say is that we really miss a creative striker, one who can unsettle defenses, run them ragged and pull them apart without the ball. We have more creativity in the middle of the park, but lack that at the top of the attack. Raheem has some, but expecting him to fill Suarez' boots is too big of an ask.
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Offline B0151?

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #31 on: August 18, 2014, 05:41:56 pm »
It's easy to forget that Lucas and Gerrard sitting hasn't always resulted in a disastrous performance, as much as I am against that partnership.

They had some good performances together in the second half of the 2012/13 season. Helped us to a pretty good start of the season last year. We probably have a better win percentage with them playing there than one might realise.

Definitely a step back like, which was the surprising thing. I'm just trying to rationalise Rodgers decision to go back to it (to myself more than anyone). Hope we won't see them again though.

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #32 on: August 18, 2014, 05:49:34 pm »
It's easy to forget that Lucas and Gerrard sitting hasn't always resulted in a disastrous performance, as much as I am against that partnership.

They had some good performances together in the second half of the 2012/13 season. Helped us to a pretty good start of the season last year. We probably have a better win percentage with them playing there than one might realise.

Definitely a step back like, which was the surprising thing. I'm just trying to rationalise Rodgers decision to go back to it (to myself more than anyone). Hope we won't see them again though.
Our pretty good start to last year though was mostly performances like yesterday. Scraping by, relying on last-ditch tackles and Mignolet to hold things together. Our performances with them last year were of Top 4 outsiders. Once Gerrard (and then Lucas) got injured, we quickly turned into title contenders.

Offline GrkStav

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #33 on: August 18, 2014, 06:07:43 pm »
It doesn't make sense to start Lucas no matter which way you come at it.

The whole idea is not to telegraph the underlying basis of one's entire analysis this "loudly".

As ElstonGunn said: "I will say that Lucas was actually perfectly fine for the first 45 minutes."

Furthermore, he didn't "give the ball away a number of times" in the 2nd half. He gave the ball away twice. Once on an attempted soft pass to Skrtel (unclear what the effect of the wind had on that, or what part of the responsibility for the pass not reaching its destination falls on the intended receiver, Skrtel) and once on an attempted pass to Coutinho which was partly shielded by the referee (it should thus probably not been attempted) and smartly cut-off and intercepted by Wanyama. That's it for the 2nd half.

Lucas and Gerrard found themselves and appeared to have been instructed to find themselves on the same horizontal line a lot in the first half, much less so in the 2nd half (until, of course, Allen came in for Lucas). The CBs did not spead out as wide as in the 4123. Moreover, it wasn't a matter of one of Lucas and Gerrard 'rotating' into the '1' spot with the other being a 'cautious' box2box (following, perhaps BR's motto "if you can't reliably run back, do not run forward") as was the case in the beginning of the 2nd half. Assuming that SFC were set up (and were able to execute) to prevent Gerrard and Lucas from being an 'organizing/controlling' duo and effecting either vertical passes to checking forwards (the front 4, the 3-1 part of the formation) or longer diagonal passes to the advancing fullbacks, the onus for doing so would fall on the CBs, especially Lovren, with his more refined footballing skills and two-footed full passing repertoire. The latter obliged much more so than Skrtel. The end result though, whether due to 'not quite right' pass delivery (less likely) or due to persistently mediocre showing for the ball, shielding, pass-reception and 'getting turned' by Coutinho, Sturridge, Johnson, Sterling, Henderson and Manquillo (in that order), was not so good.

Having said, the times, especially Gerrard attempted some fine longer passes to all of the above, it was mostly the latter's 'fault' that they didn't work out, rather than Gerrard's. Lucas's forward passes were invariably successful, although less 'promising'. It must also be noted that Lucas did a lot more 'compressing' of the lines and pressing/marking, dispossessing in the opposition half and re-starting the attack than Gerrard.

Coutinho was not starved for service. He was marked extremely well (with a little help from Mr. Clattenburg who either allowed plenty of manhandling to go unpunished completely or applied his peculiar and to me erroneous understanding of the 'advantage' rule, such that mere retention of possession subsequent to a clear, blatant foul on one of our players on our part was adjudged as constituting "advantage" for us) AND he had "one of those days", where practically nothing that normally 'works' did. Even so, he had a few moments of brilliance or, at the very least, almost brilliance.

Sturridge, apart from his well-taken goal, was frustratingly ineffective, on multiple levels. Again, the referee did him no favors. Furthermore, he was uncharacteristically 'selfish' (see what I did there?) on the break or counter, holding on the ball too long instead of feeding open teammates busting guts especially on the flanks.

We got done in with the use of one of the plays that PoP diagrammed for us in the pre-match thread (frighteningly prescient post, btw), with Lucas leading the way of culpability in a cascade of defensive errors that certainly helped out SFC players. In the second half, and with Lucas no longer on the pitch, we almost got done in AGAIN through the use of the same play (71st/72nd minute, Clyne involved again as the full-back third runner) with Gerrard leading the way of culpability of defensive errors, followed uncharacteristically by Lovren.

Manquillo was tested repeatedly and was not found wanting. In fact, he came through with flying colors, especially in comparison to his much more senior counterpart playing wrong-footed on the other flank. I shall say nothing more about Glen Johnson given my well-known negative bias towards him.

Skrtel was very good defensively (bar a couple of hard-to-explain misjudgments of the flight of the ball or the bounce), although not always quick enough to follow Lovren's lead and stepping up.

Lovren was excellent defensively, with one exception (which wasn't costly, in the end).

Henderson and Sterling's performances have been more than adequately described and analyzed above.

Mignolet: Excellent shot-stopping, improved dealing with crosses (still, not exactly excellent) and, sorry, mediocre longer-ball distribution. No, I am not expecting him to be Pirlo, Xabi and Gerrard combined in his longer passing, btw.

Allen and Lambert contributed properly and were good substitutions.
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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #34 on: August 18, 2014, 06:10:14 pm »
Wow DanA!  That is awfully high isn't it?  Are you saying the 60-70% of the first two years of goals under Rodgers are tracking issues from the run of play?  Now, this is really getting interesting!  I would have never imagined it to be this high.

I wonder what Rodgers will make of that.

He just seems like the manager who is aware of everything now doesn't he? At least in my mind, he's got that stature.
Just wonder, if this is one thing that even he, may not be fully aware of. If so, I think he would find a solution pretty quick.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 06:12:00 pm by LFCDynamic »
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Offline LondonBarnes

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #35 on: August 18, 2014, 06:13:16 pm »
Last season when Gerrard and Lucas started together we averaged 1.875 points per game. They started together in 16 games.
When one of them started as a single pivot we averaged 2.45 points per game.

1.87 points per game is 71 points over a season which would have finished 5th last season. 2.45 points per game is 93 points over a season which would have won the league!

I thought we really turned a corner last season when we went with the single pivot in midfield with 2 energetic players ahead. Hendo towards the right and either Allen or Coutinho on the left. The performances with this set up just went to another level. With this in mind when I saw Lucas in the starting line up the confidence just drained out of me. Before the line up was confirmed I was thinking 3 or 4-0. After seeing the line up I thought we'd struggle but win it 2-1 (honest).

I don't want to see the Gerrard and Lucas double pivot again. If we Brendan goes with that at the Etihad I will be quite concerned.

Cheers.

Offline GrkStav

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #36 on: August 18, 2014, 06:14:09 pm »
I went through the video of all the goals conceded a couple of times and I'd say about 60-70% of them.

It was rare a striker scored against and when they did it was more often than not a big man from a cross or set piece.

How many of those 60-70% of them involved Lucas, specifically, failing to track midfield runners (who ought to have been tracked! Not all of them, not always, ought to be tracked -- absent hindsight)?
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 09:18:35 pm by GrkStav »
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Offline cowtownred

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #37 on: August 18, 2014, 06:18:53 pm »
GrkStav, thats a super contribution.

Like everyone, I think the midfield pairing of Lucas/Gerrard is no longer (was it ever with SG in the new deep role?) something we should use routinely, especially at home in games we expect to take the initiative.

But I think the scapegoating of Lucas might be unfair... is he really the more ineffective of the two of them in a pair? Opening a can of worms.


I can't wait to see the 'diamond' formation in games we expect to dominate; with any of Gerrard OR Lucas as the deepest, central 2 of Henderson and Lallana, Coutinho advanced, with S and S up front.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 06:22:18 pm by cowtownred »

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #38 on: August 18, 2014, 06:20:25 pm »
I went through the video of all the goals conceded a couple of times and I'd say about 60-70% of them.

It was rare a striker scored against and when they did it was more often than not a big man from a cross or set piece. 

Wow that really stands out , any idea what it is for the other top 6 sides and is their a obvious solution than track better ?

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Re: RAWK Round Table: LFC 2-1 Southampton
« Reply #39 on: August 18, 2014, 06:22:52 pm »
Last season when Gerrard and Lucas started together we averaged 1.875 points per game. They started together in 16 games.
When one of them started as a single pivot we averaged 2.45 points per game.

1.87 points per game is 71 points over a season which would have finished 5th last season. 2.45 points per game is 93 points over a season which would have won the league!

I thought we really turned a corner last season when we went with the single pivot in midfield with 2 energetic players ahead. Hendo towards the right and either Allen or Coutinho on the left. The performances with this set up just went to another level. With this in mind when I saw Lucas in the starting line up the confidence just drained out of me. Before the line up was confirmed I was thinking 3 or 4-0. After seeing the line up I thought we'd struggle but win it 2-1 (honest).

I don't want to see the Gerrard and Lucas double pivot again. If we Brendan goes with that at the Etihad I will be quite concerned.

Cheers.

Not one bit surprised with those stats , wondering why Rodgers doesn't see it ?